Iran Election Guide

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Wednesday
Jun242009

The Latest from Iran (24 June): Afternoon Violence

NEW Latest Video: Resistance and Violence (24 June)
NEW Iran: New Technology, New Protest, New System?
NEW Iran and Britain: Diplomatic Breakdown?
The Latest from Iran (23 June): Preparing for Thursday


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IRAN FLAG2030 GMT: Tehran Bureau, which has been doing sterling work through this crisis, comes through again. It has just posted an invaluable guide to the Assembly of Experts, the one Iranian body that has the power to name (and to remove) the Supreme Leaders. Notable in the article is the dissection of the politics of a key member, the pro-Ahmadinejad Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.

2025 GMT: A curious and, if true, troubling incident. It is alleged that 70 faculty members, having met with Mir Hossein Mousavi, were later arrested.

2015 GMT: An Interesting Development. The head of Iran's National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, is reported to have met former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mohsen Rezaei. No word on the specific topics of discussion.

1805 GMT: Report that Ardeshir Amir Arjman, who is in charge of Mousavi campain's legal matters, has been arrested.

1755 GMT: More on the "Neda" Story. The Iranian state line, put out through the Islamic Republic News Agency, is that "The marksmen had mistaken [Neda Agha Soltan] for the sister of one of the Monafeghin who had been executed in the province of Mazandaran some time ago." The "Monafeghin" are also known as the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, which has carried out a campaign of bombings and assassinations against the Iranian Government since 1979.

Notwithstanding the curiosity that a relative of a dead terrorist is apparently under a death sentence in Iran, the story is one of many trying to absolve Iranian authorities of blame. Another version is that an "unknown gunman" targeted Neda to cause disruption and blacken the name of th Iranian establishment.

1750 GMT: Reuters is now reporting on the statement on Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi's website: "I do not accept the result and therefore consider as illegitimate the new government. Because of the irregularities, the vote should be annulled."

1745 GMT: The Guardian is reporting that authorities have ordered the family of Neda Agha Soltan out of their Tehran home after shocking images of her death were circulated around the world.

1728 GMT: Press TV not reporting any violence. Instead, they are highlighting yesterday's IRIB inteview with Tehran's mayor, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf. Qalibaf  had urged relevant Iranian officials to authorize peaceful opposition rallies, saying the public should have an outlet to express its opinions. Legalizing street rallies, he reasoned, would prevent 'saboteurs who draw weapons and kill people'.

1713 GMT: BBC website very slow/cautious to react- only now breaking the news of today's violence (and still nothing on main page)

1625 GMT: The Guardian's Washington bureau chief Ewen Macaskill reports that President Barack Obama appears to have sent a letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last month, ahead of its disputed election, calling for an improvement in relations.

1610 GMT: Twiitter update of the day from "Breaking News" - "JUST IN -- Iranian state television: Security forces broke up two protests, one of 200 and one of 50 people, but no violence reported

1606 GMT: From CNN “They were waiting for us,” the source said. “They all have guns and riot uniforms. It was like a mouse trap.”

1601 GMT: Via Twitter "Lalezar Sq same as Baharestan, unbelevable, ppls murdered everywhere... everybody under arrest & cant move"

1548 GMT: Via Twitter "In Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping ppl like meat - blood everywhere - like butcher - Allah Akbar"

1547 GMT: Iran witness to CNN: "Many people with broken arms, legs, heads -- blood everywhere -- pepper gas like war"

1545 GMT: Stream of reports via Twitter and to CNN that protesters are beaten beaten outside Iran Parliament building. Unconfirmed reports of gunfire.

1500 GMT: Al Arabiya is reporting the death of a female protester at Bahraestan Square.

Press TV is ignoring the demonstration, focusing on the Supreme Leader's call today for "law and order" and the claims of the Ministry of Interior that it found documents proving "certain foreign ministries" were behind the opposition to the election result. However, its third item is that "post-election unrest has killed 20 people, including eight Basij members", all of whom --- according to "inside sources" --- were killed by gunfire.

1445 GMT: Andrew Sullivan's running blog has posted a set of Twitter comments on today's gathering in Baharestan Square in front of the Iranian Parliament building: "I see many ppl with broken arms/legs/heads - blood everywhere - pepper gas like war...Ppl run into alleys and militia standing there waiting - from 2 sides they attack ppl in middle of alleys...saw 7/8 militia beating one woman with baton on ground - she had no defense nothing -... So many ppl arrested - young & old - they take ppl away....Just in from Baharestan Sq - situation today is terrible - they beat the ppls like animals....Ppl gathered in Baharestan but police & plain cloths don’t let the core of the rally to form."

1205 GMT: Start time of demonstrations was revised to 4:30 p.m. local time (1200 GMT), according to Mehdi Karroubi's Facebook page.

1150 GMT: No word yet about today's demonstrations. The Ministry of the Interior continues to hammer away at the line that Britain, the US, and Israel are behind the protests, with the US Central Intelligence Agency providing funding. Some of those detained are "confirmed" as agents of foreign governments.

1145 GMT: There is an intriguing report that President Ahmadinejad met last night with "some well-known" members of Parliament, who offers their congratulations on his victory. The intriguing part is that among those who did not attend was the Speaker of Parliament, Ali Larijani.

1030 GMT: The BBC reports the latest statement from the Supreme Leader: "I had insisted and will insist on implementing the law on the election issue....Neither the establishment nor the nation will yield to pressure at any cost."

1025 GMT: Indications, just over an hour before they are scheduled to begin, that this afternoon's protests in Tehran will take place not only in front of Parliament but in five other locations: the Vali-e Asr, Enghelab, Vanak, Tajrish, Sadehgieh streets and squares.

0935 GMT: In a sharp, effective analysis, Tehran Bureau considers "how Mr. Mousavi and the reformists should go forward". Noting the issues that we're pondering, such as the tension within the Government and "conservative" ranks, and warning against "large-scale violence", the article concludes:
The best strategy for developing the coalition is, therefore, a campaign focused on a narrow goal that is achievable, but also one that opens the door for making deeper and more meaningful changes to the current system. At present this goal is the annulment of the election and holding a new one monitored by objective and neutral observers. If that goal is achieved, that itself will be a great setback for the hard-liners and supporters of Mr. Ahmadinejad.

0855 GMT: Human Rights Watch has released a statement pointing to the appointment of "a notoriously abusive Iranian prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi" to oversee the investigation of detainees as a sign "that the authorities are preparing to bring trumped-up charges against its opponents".

0820 GMT: Claims that some detainees have been released from Evin Prison, but authorities are concentrating on holding students.

0815 GMT: BBC Persian Service is reporting that four members of the Iranian national football team have been "retired" after wearing green wristbands in their recent World Cup qualifying match with South Korea.

0800 GMT: Engagement Suspended. Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has offered the first substantial sign of the effect of the political crisis on US-Iran relations. He will not be going to Italy for discussions on the situation in Afghanistan, a vital arena for co-operation between Washington and Tehran.

0635 GMT: The Rezaei shift continues: his website is claiming that former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has not gone to Qom to lobby for the support of clerics against the Khamenei-Guardian Council position.

0630 GMT: Press TV English has now broken its Iran silence, venturing to mention the Guardian Council's five-day extension and the Rezaei withdrawal of his complaint because of "the political and security interests of the nation".

Morning Update 0530 GMT: After a Tuesday when there was less open protest but a lot of movement behind the scenes in Iran, as well as the high-profile statement from President Obama, a slower start to today.

CNN features Presidential candidate Mehdi Karroubi's open letter criticising Iranian media and charging, ""You know well that those who support Mr. Ahmadinejad's government today are promoters of fanatic and Taliban-like Islam." It also notes the Guardian Council's five-day extension of the recount but gives far less attention to former President Khatami's "action plan".

Unsurprisingly, state-run Press TV's website plays up the good news that, after the Guardian Council's extension, Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei has withdrawn his complaint about vote fraud. It also has a notable story that a "headquarters" for the planning of unrest has been discovered by Iranian security forces. Activity in the building on 7 Tir Square, ostensibly used for the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, proves the intervention of "foreign elements". (There continues to be a shutdown on Press TV English's broadcasts on any news concerning Iran.)

(The story should be matched up with reports that there was a major raid Tuesday on the pro-Mousavi newspaper Kamaleh with approximately 25 staff arrested.)

On the streets, there are no reports yet of any "surging" of the Bazaar, as the Khatami actino plan advocates. As with previous days, it is late afternoon (4 p.m. local time) when key public events may start, in this case, a rally in front of the Iranian Parliament building. Information is still getting through from Iran via Twitter and e-mail, but there has been a sharp drop in video (although we've just picked up apparent footage of yesterday's protests) and still images. E-mail correspondents are also often guarded in their comments, given the possibility of Government surveillance.

Behind the scenes, where there was much to consider on Tuesday (see yesterday's set of stories), manoeuvres continues both between the opposition and Government camps and within the Government's ranks (for a guide, see in particular the 23 June story, "Khamenei v. Rafsanjani?", and the subsequent comments). We've received new information overnight and will be evaluating it later today.

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