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« Iran's New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account "I Have Never Seen as Much Violence" | Main | Two Birds, One Stone: Netanyahu Attacks UN & Iran »
Friday
Nov062009

The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After

NEW Iran’s New 13 Aban: An Eyewitness Account “I Have Never Seen as Much Violence”
NEW Iran: Josh Shahryar on the Significance of 13 Aban
NEW Iran Video: The Tribute to 13 Aban’s Protesters
Iran Document: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Interview on Eve of 13 Aban
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “A Major Blow to Khamenei’s Authority”
Iran’s New 13 Aban: A First-Hand Account from the Streets
Iran’s New 13 Aban: “The Green Wave Has Bounced Back”
NEW Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 4th Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 3rd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 2nd Set)
Latest Iran Video: The 13 Aban Protests (4 November — 1st Set)

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IRAN 4 NOV 71905 GMT: Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi says two Germans and a Canadian, detained on 13 Aban, have been released. It is unclear if the Canadian is one of the four foreign journalists who were arrested (see 1155 GMT).

1845 GMT: From the Streets. We've posted an eyewitness account by Persian  Umpire, which can be compared with that of our correspondent Mr Azadi, of the 13 Aban demonstrations.

1820 GMT: MediaFail of the Day. Even by the standards set by the Islamic Republic News Agency for "information", this is Gold-Medal journalism. From Mehdi Karroubi's son, Hossein Karroubi:
On Thursday [5 November], IRNA released an interview said to be with me which was completely false and lies. In these comments IRNA claimed that I have said Mr. Mousavi was not brave enough to attend the November 4th protest and that I have accused him of lying.

There is no need to explain that because of Mr. Mousavi’s and Mr. Karoubi’s character and of course their bravery that we know about, they will continue to lead the Green movement of Iran with unity in their actions and they will not give up until we reach the goals of the movement and eliminate the power of liars.These kinds of lies will only make the strong determination of Mr. Mousavi in fight against lies even stronger and will further prove that he has chosen his mission in this fight justly.

1725 GMT: What does "Obama, You're With Them or You're With Us" Mean? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has an interesting article, "What Does Iran's Green Movement Want from Obama?".  Assuming those interviewed are representative of the movement, the message is: 1) of course, no US interference but 2) no eagerness for a nuclear deal with the Ahmadinejad Government and 3) condemnation of Iran's human rights abuses with inclusion of the issue in any US talks with Tehran.

1550 GMT: More on Friday Prayers (see 1145 GMT). The Los Angeles Times has a lengthy summary of today's service in Tehran, from which a couple of interesting twists emerge.

The first is an apparent "concession" in the hard line normally set out by Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami. He began with his portrayal of a small, foreign-backed group trying to disrupt the pro-Government rallies on 13 Aban: "Out of the hundreds and thousands of people who take to the streets, only one or two thousand shouted [for the Greens]...."Americans must not be happy, as there is no red carpet waiting for them." And he pressed the evil sponsor theme: "My brothers and sisters who have fallen in the wrong and incorrect track, look who is supporting you, those who were named by the late imam [Ayatollah Khomeini] as 'blasphemous' and [whose] Islam was called 'Americanized Islam'. The miserable monarchists are supporting you."

Yet Khatami then offered a way back to the fold, "What is wrong if you follow the mainstream of the nation? Come back to the embrace of the nation and the nation will accept your repenting and remorse....Of course the criminals’ cases are different and they should be punished."

That apparent sign of reconcilation was not matched by an opening for the US. To the contrary, Khatami was so loud in his denunciation of Washington that it heightens suspicions that Iran --- possibly against the line set out by President Ahmadinejad --- is walking out on the nuclear talks. Khatami declared, "Since the 1953 coup against [Mohammad] Mosaddegh, the U.S. has done nothing except treason against our nation, and since the beginning of our revolution, as [Khomeini] said, we can compile a book about the crimes committed by the US", and he brought the story to the present, with the Obama Administration instigating ethnic groups and releasing $50 million for "toppling our system". Khatami concluded, "As long as the U.S. will not give up its arrogant character, our nation is not going to be engaged in satanic negotiations."

Khatami's line was introduced by Alaedin Boroujerdi, the head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee, who denounced protesters for following the line of the Voice of America: "The leaders [of the opposition] used to be high-ranking officials. Now, they repeat the same slogans."

So, if Khatami is speaking for others higher up in the regime, is this an attempt to ease the internal conflict by offering an olive branch to the "less serious" offenders? And will this be matched by a linking of the "more serious" offenders --- say, the leaders of the opposition movement --- to the US, even if that means a suspension of engagement with the "West"?

Most importantly, is this shift in strategy a sign of weakness or strength? I'm voting for the former.

1430 GMT: Will The Regime Break The Opposition? Following our previous entry, Mr Smith checks in, "We may have underestimated the police resolve: Iranian human rights groups are now reporting that no less than 400 people have been picked up in the streets on 13 Aban and are now in Evin Prison."

I do not think we missed this. Rather, we may be seeing an important juncture in the post-election crisis. As we have noted over the last 48 hours, the Ahmadinejad Government may be lost for a political strategy, but it can still try to use blunt force to survive by pounding the opposition into submission.

1255 GMT: The Government Acts. Tehran's Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi has confirmed that reformists Ali Tajernia, Saeed Shariati, and Ebrahim Amini will be tried on Saturday. Ahmad Zeidabadi and Behzad Nabavi will be in court on Sunday, and Mohammad Atrianfar will appear on Monday.

An Iranian activist is offering running updates on the latest developments with detentions and forthcoming court hearings.

1245 GMT: What Has Mohammad Khatami Been Doing? The former President, who has kept a low profile in recent days including 13 Aban, has resurfaced with a visit to Morteza Alviri, the former mayor of Tehran and Mehdi Karoubi’s representative on the committee to investigate detainee abuses, in his home. Alviri was arrested in a raid on Karroubi's offices in September and released on bail last week.

Khatami offered general remarks, praising Alviri's courage and long service to Iran.

1200 GMT: I can't help thinking that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps has been seriously distracted by last month's bombing in southeastern Iran.

Brigadier General Hussein Salami, the IRGC's Deputy Commander, has given a lengthy interview to Fars News about the threat from Jundallah. He goes on at length about foreign support of the Baluch insurgents but this is the headline claim: Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi was arrested in September but was released after interference from Pakistani intelligence services.

It's not a question of the attention that the Revolutionary Guard is now paying to the southeastern situation rather than to the internal challenge. Allegations like these are bound to complicate the Government's relations with neighbours such as Pakistan.

1155 GMT: Agence France Presse reports that four journalists --- two Canadian, 1 Japanese, and 1 Iranian working for AFP --- were arrested on 13 Aban.

1145 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, known for his fierce denunciation of post-election opposition, led the prayers in Tehran, and he did not ease up on the evil of a Green movement led by the United States.

1. Observers should not mistake a "small group" of agitators backed by Washington as the message of 13 Aban, given the "flood surge" of people who came out for the Iranian nation, Government, and Supreme Leader.

2. Iran's great success in nuclear energy is being led by Ayatollah Khamenei. The West "says we should build confidence but we do not have confidence in you".

3. Give us the uranium for Iran's medical research reactor. Now.

4. The US is arrogant, but Iran will never negotiate with evil.

1120 GMT: Nuclear Face-Off. With news from inside Iran slow this morning, the Iranian Government has kept attention on the international talks. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has maintained on IRIB television, "The Islamic Republic examines all the proposals. We have examined this proposal, we have some technical and economic considerations [which need to be addressed]." Mottaki's remarks were an indirect response to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's insistence that the draft arrangement on uranium enrichment would not be changed.

Mottaki has also used remarks to the Islamic Republic News Agency to poke at the "superficial" comments of the French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner.

0935 GMT: Really, I'm Going to Speak...but Football First. Fars News Agency reports:
President Ahmadinejad's speech to the nation has been postponed because of Thursday night's World Cup football match between Iran and Uruguay.

The President will speak after 9 p.m. on Saturday on the nuclear issue, the economy, and in particular information technology.

Postponed because of the football? Call me cynical, but postponed because of uncertainty and disarray is a less dramatic explanation. The original story was that the President would appear on Thursday, irrespective of any prospect that he might be overshadowed by a sporting event; the delay points to a Government that is trying to figure out how to respond to the show of opposition on 13 Aban.

0825 GMT: Following the assessments by Mr Smith and by Chris Emery of the outcomes of 13 Aban's marches, EA correspondent Josh Shahryar offers his assessment of the day's events and their political impact.

0735 GMT: Balancing our criticism of the rush by some back to the haven of Iran as Nuclear Threat, other newspapers do keep an eye on the opposition and internal developments. The Huffington Post has a feature on Mahmoud Vahidnia, the mathematics student who challenged the Supreme Leader during a speech last week. And The New York Times publishes a commentary by Nazenin Ansari and Jonathan Paris on "The Message from Tehran".

0700 GMT: An Enduring America reader wrote with concern a few hours ago, "Today was suspiciously quiet. No videos coming out and no statements....I’m not sure what to make of it." Josh Shahryar's excellent analysis, posted in a separate entry, offers an answer. I would add: 1) this lull happened after previous large demonstrations of opposition, as on 30 July and 18 September; 2) a pause was to be expected after the rush of energy and fortitude on 13 Aban; 3) the movement is already gathering itself for the next show of defiance, with planning beginning for Students Day on 16 Azar (7 December).

That's not to say that other folks are already leaving the party. The Washington Post exits with great haste to its priority of the nuclear issue. It features an article claiming, from the ever-present unnamed official, "Iran is demanding full delivery of reactor fuel before it gives up its stash of low-enriched uranium and has balked at further efforts to hold international talks on its nuclear program." That, however, is fair-and-balanced reporting next to the paper's editorial calling for an immediate cutoff of talks and twisting 13 Aban to fit that demand:
On Wednesday, the opposition protesters chanted: "Obama, Obama -- either you're with them, or with us." Sooner rather than later, Mr. Obama ought to respond to those messages.

The rush away from Iran to the nuclear front is likely to be accelerated by an "exclusive" in The Guardian this morning, "Iran tested advanced nuclear warhead design – secret report". Apparently "Iranian scientists have experimented with an advanced nuclear warhead design...known as a 'two-point implosion' device," and "nuclear experts" find this "breathtaking".

Translation: a "Western" official (US, European, or from the International Atomic Energy Agency) decided --- from genuine concern, a desire to wreck the enrichment talks, or both --- to leak another headline from the controversial 2008 IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme. Without seeing the actual text, it is impossible to know the significance of the alleged warhead design. Indeed, two sentences deep in a side analysis in The Guardian tip off that this is far from an "imminent threat" story:
Most but not all of the material in the dossier relates back to the period before 2004. It does not necessarily conflict with the US National Intelligence Estimate two years ago, that found it likely that Iran suspended weaponisation work in 2003.

That, I suspect, will not deter media from racing to panic stations over the claim.

Reader Comments (16)

The World Cup Match was Thursday evening

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAndrew Szép

Andrew,

Apologies for the mistake --- will now correct.

S.

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

I guess Ahmedinejad likes football more than politics. It's a shame he can't be traded to Paris-Saint-Germain.

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterEdward Yeranian

He brings bad luck.
whenever he decides to see a sport mach; we know that Iranian national teams will lose then. E.g in the football mach between Iran and Saudi Arabia in which Iran was ahead by 1 but in the last few minutes, they lost the match 2-1 or national wrestling team that Iran was wining however in the last few minutes, they were defeated. Also Last night, Iran Youth National team lost its match again.
Of course we should not forget that Ahmadinejad has serious conflicts with the Parliament

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAzadi

The U-17 World Cup btw...its sooo "important" that IRIB2 refused to show this teams World cup games.

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterJashar

"The Ahmadinejad Government may be lost for a political strategy, but it can still try to use blunt force to survive by pounding the opposition into submission" Yes, but such a strategy could prove very counterproductive and exceedingly difficult to achieve, given the grassroot nature of the Green movement. All out repression should have been applied last june (like the algerian regime did against protesters in october 1988), now it's too late. The green ideals had more than enough time to spread and to take root throughout Iran.

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterGloumdalclitch

Please help hundreds of women are taken to notorious prisons and will be raped and tortured to death. These crimes against humanity must not be allowed. The international community should please help. Here is a Persian link, there are man other sources:

http://jomhoriyat.wordpress.com/2009/11/06/%D8%AC%D9%86%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D9%87%D9%88%D9%84%D9%86%D8%A7%DA%A9-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%AF%D8%AE%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7/

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterHossein

Here is another link in Persian to the hundreds taken away after beating them severely. The prisons in Iran are turning to slaughter houses. Please please bring this to the attention of the world. The western press is so inadequate in its reportage, that I am amazed what truth do they adhere to:

http://www.ina-newsagency.com/News-Details.aspx?newsId=28388&back=1

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterHossein

The Basij were promised 2 million Rials = $200 (a lot in Iran still) for every demonstrator the arrest and beat and take pictures of. This is shameful, here is Persian link:

http://www.iranpressnews.com/source/067987.htm

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterHossein

Concessions? A regime that lives on beating its people and insulting foreign countries has no concessions to make. As Azadeh Kian (Sorbonne, Paris 7) rightly put it, enmity with the USA is crucial to the legitimacy of this ideologic system and can not be abandoned: http://www.roozonline.com/persian/news/newsitem/article/2009/november/04//-494d7b734e.html
Meanwhile Masood Jazayeri, cultural deputy of the armed forces command, issued a threat to Iranians abroad, especially secular intellectuals, journalists, student activists and artists: http://www.peykeiran.com/Content.aspx?ID=8933
At the same time the IRGC website "Basirat" identified these five major groups, including all political dissidents.
basirat means awareness, and the IRGC is truly aware of its endangered self-service system.

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterArshama

Ahmad Khatami's remarks and also those of Borujerdi indicate that the regime is confused and changes its positions in waves. There is no sincerity in what is said that people should repent and come back to the regime. The orders have been given to deal with extreme brutality with all those who dare utter a word against the Leader and the system. People have lost their fear and as high the price they are paying is the continue to cry their hatred of this brutal despotic regime. Majority no longer have an regard for the regime and intense hatred is taking hold. People talk not just of a hope that this barbaric rapist regime will fall but when. You must all give Iranians moral support and more. This is turning into a struggle of International proportions such as against Fascists in Spain. Iranians long to know their struggle is heard and is supported. Don't given in to the nonsense that if the West lends support then this will die, no, not at all. Does not make sense. The Iranian street is the most pro U.S. in the world. You should know this for a fact.

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterHossein

Hossein,

I sympathize greatly with your calls for US support. There are many of us in the west who are spreading and publicizing news and youtube videos from the Green movement as much as we can. I would like to see President Obama speak much more forcefully about the human rights situation in Iran. However, even that wouldn't suddenly break the regime.
The hard fact is, only Iranians can change this regime. I think a large part of the reason Pres. Obama is not getting more involved is that he doesn't want to create the impression among the protesters that the US is going to be able to swoop in and save the day. The Green Movement has to proceed with the knowledge that only people in Iran can change or overthrow this regime. Do whatever you have to stay alive, keep up the pressure, and destabilize the regime.

November 6, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAdam

[...] rest is here: The Latest from Iran (6 November): The Day After The Day After … Share and [...]

Hossein,

I think you should look to what Khatami's message means not just for what it says. It has indicated a weakness of the regime! They realize they can not continue to brutally crack down without losing anymore of the slim support they have. I clearly saw this action as one that indicated a "chink in the armor of the regime." The regime probably knows this but what choice do they have in face of the massive non violent protestors. They are embarking on a strategy to divide and conquer. Stay united and continue course becaue the Green Wave is now starting to force the regime to do things it does not want to. All the best to you.

Thx
Bill

November 7, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterBill Davit

@Dear Hossein

I sent your comments under 8 and 9 to my national branch of Amnesty International and asked their attention for the inhumane civil rights situation in Iran and the treatment of detainees in Iranian prisons, as well as for the execution of Ehsan Fattahian tomorrow. It is not much what I can do from Europe, I'm so sorry. I hope your green wave and movement will turn out in a victory for the Iranian people. Take good care of yourself and be safe!

November 10, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterNelly

Thank you Nelly. The more people do make similar reports the better. These are crimes indeed against humanity and all humans must unite and stand firm against them.

November 10, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterHossein

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