Wednesday
Nov182009
Iran: Re-Evaluating the Green Movement After 5+ Months
Wednesday, November 18, 2009 at 9:05
The Latest from Iran (17 November): An Obama-Ahmadinejad Alliance?
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0800 GMT: In recent days there has been an apparent shift in the content of the statements of opposition leaders. Despite Government restrictions, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have continued to get out public declarations, mainly through meetings with reformist groups or appearances such as Karroubi's visit to Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani in hospital, but their content now seems to be carefully hedged. While the abuses of the Government are still identified, all three have been at great pains to put their calls for changes within the framework of the Constitution and the Iranian system, as well as warning their followers not to resort to extreme action.
In tone, this is not new. The Green movement has always maintained that it is upholding the laws and values of the Islamic Republic and that it is the Government which has dismissed or violated those foundations of 1979. There has been far less in content, however, from Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami on political objectives, and even specific issues such as the enquiry into detainee abuses, spurred by Khatami's letter of 29 July to Hashemi Rafsanjani, have not featured so prominently.
One explanation for the shift may be that the Government's 5+ months of restrictions on the communications and movements of the oppositonal leadership, “supported” by detentions and trials, have worn down the scope of the leadership's declarations and ambitions. Another is that figures like Rafsanjani have moved away from open co-operation and that initiatives such as the National Unity Plan appear to have run into the ground. A third is that the leaders have a growing fear of a movement which, angry and frustrated, may strike out violently against the Government.
Whatever the reason for a more cautious approach from the top, this should not be mistaken as the settling of the Green Wave. Dissent bubbles --- yesterday, catching up with news, it was notable that there were not only the statements of Karroubi and Khatami but also the more pointed criticisms of Grand Ayatollahs Sane'i and Montazeri and a show of support for the challenge of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib. (I also understand, from a private source, that Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi --- considered a “conservative” in clerical approach --- has launched a scathing attack on the Government in a closed-door session which has not been made public.)
And, of course, there is the simmering at the Universities and other locations of protests, which emerges somewhere as public demonstration on a daily basis. Even if this is not picked up by the media, it should not be missed: note, as EA readers have, the dramatic challenge at the international university at Qazvin to the appearance of regime supporter Hamid Rasaee.
The thoughtful discussion on EA's comments board --- is this now a challenge which is long-term but which will not abate until there are major changes in the Iranian system? --- continues. I don't think there is a definitive answer, but I do think it exposes the fatuousness of mainstream assertions such as that in The New York Times (see yesterday's updates), "[Iran] now looks as if it’s back to business as usual." Indeed, for all the difficulties at the top of the opposition, I was struck recently by the comment of a shrewd but normally cautious Iranian activist, “This is no longer about the election. This is about the concept of velayat-e-faqih [the concept of clerical rule through the Supreme Leader].”
At the same time, that prospect of a demand for action which extends over time but expands in scope raises an equally long-term question. Up to now, I could be secure in the easy fit of a Green leadership, complemented by those like Rafsanjani who also wanted to curb Ahmadinejad's authority, with the mass if somewhat disjointed effort from below. Now I wonder what will be the new dynamic amongst a political leadership, manoeuvring not only against Government forces but against its own concerns and fear, senior clerics who will not go away quietly, and that Green Wave --- sometimes abstract, sometimes below the surface, but also visible in the shows of anger, frustration, and hope --- which ebbs but is never stilled?
Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis
0800 GMT: In recent days there has been an apparent shift in the content of the statements of opposition leaders. Despite Government restrictions, Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami have continued to get out public declarations, mainly through meetings with reformist groups or appearances such as Karroubi's visit to Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani in hospital, but their content now seems to be carefully hedged. While the abuses of the Government are still identified, all three have been at great pains to put their calls for changes within the framework of the Constitution and the Iranian system, as well as warning their followers not to resort to extreme action.In tone, this is not new. The Green movement has always maintained that it is upholding the laws and values of the Islamic Republic and that it is the Government which has dismissed or violated those foundations of 1979. There has been far less in content, however, from Mousavi, Karroubi, and Khatami on political objectives, and even specific issues such as the enquiry into detainee abuses, spurred by Khatami's letter of 29 July to Hashemi Rafsanjani, have not featured so prominently.
One explanation for the shift may be that the Government's 5+ months of restrictions on the communications and movements of the oppositonal leadership, “supported” by detentions and trials, have worn down the scope of the leadership's declarations and ambitions. Another is that figures like Rafsanjani have moved away from open co-operation and that initiatives such as the National Unity Plan appear to have run into the ground. A third is that the leaders have a growing fear of a movement which, angry and frustrated, may strike out violently against the Government.
Whatever the reason for a more cautious approach from the top, this should not be mistaken as the settling of the Green Wave. Dissent bubbles --- yesterday, catching up with news, it was notable that there were not only the statements of Karroubi and Khatami but also the more pointed criticisms of Grand Ayatollahs Sane'i and Montazeri and a show of support for the challenge of Grand Ayatollah Dastgheib. (I also understand, from a private source, that Ayatollah Makarem-Shirazi --- considered a “conservative” in clerical approach --- has launched a scathing attack on the Government in a closed-door session which has not been made public.)
And, of course, there is the simmering at the Universities and other locations of protests, which emerges somewhere as public demonstration on a daily basis. Even if this is not picked up by the media, it should not be missed: note, as EA readers have, the dramatic challenge at the international university at Qazvin to the appearance of regime supporter Hamid Rasaee.
The thoughtful discussion on EA's comments board --- is this now a challenge which is long-term but which will not abate until there are major changes in the Iranian system? --- continues. I don't think there is a definitive answer, but I do think it exposes the fatuousness of mainstream assertions such as that in The New York Times (see yesterday's updates), "[Iran] now looks as if it’s back to business as usual." Indeed, for all the difficulties at the top of the opposition, I was struck recently by the comment of a shrewd but normally cautious Iranian activist, “This is no longer about the election. This is about the concept of velayat-e-faqih [the concept of clerical rule through the Supreme Leader].”
At the same time, that prospect of a demand for action which extends over time but expands in scope raises an equally long-term question. Up to now, I could be secure in the easy fit of a Green leadership, complemented by those like Rafsanjani who also wanted to curb Ahmadinejad's authority, with the mass if somewhat disjointed effort from below. Now I wonder what will be the new dynamic amongst a political leadership, manoeuvring not only against Government forces but against its own concerns and fear, senior clerics who will not go away quietly, and that Green Wave --- sometimes abstract, sometimes below the surface, but also visible in the shows of anger, frustration, and hope --- which ebbs but is never stilled?
Reader Comments (8)
Iran like many other Muslim countries has a religiously & socially conservative population. Whilst many young people want dramatic change very quickly there are many others who want change but at a comfortable pace. Plus Iranians have seen the devastating effect of US & Western interference in Iraq & Afghanistan resulting in many more deaths of innocents than in Iran in the aftermath of the elections. I think that most Iranians are probably taking the pragmatic view of 'better the devil you know then the one you don't'. At whatever cost AN's govt has been able to restore calm, the opposition leaders are still relarively free & able to exercise some of their constitutional rights to campaign & speak freely. Moreover the AN govt has proven astute as well as appearing reasonable in their nuclear negotiations with the US+5 whilst maintaining their right to make up their own mind$ This is not to say that there is no behind the scenes debate & argument on all the fundamentals inc the velayat e faqih concept amongst the religious classes which has historically proven astute in keeping abreast of public opinion and preserving their independence. Unfortunately actions such as that of Oxford University in naming a Chair after Neda Sultan whose circumstances of death are disputed. Why for instance did they not name it after Mohsen Ruhulamin, who was actually a political activist and suffered a calamitous death at the hands of the authorities at the Kahrizak Detention Centre before it was closed down. To date persons responsible for his death have not been brought to justice.
I can't help but begin to think there are two movements at hand. The Green movement as discussed above which is headed by Mousavi, Karroubi, etc and another movement (insert appropriate color) is gaining momentum of its own, perhaps evidenced by the most recent protests in which the Green movement "leaders" were for the most part absent from. To Rezvan's point above, I also think there are two general thoughts..slow steady change within the establishment and also one which demands drastic change quickly. To me a question is one that asks will these two compliment each other or take seperate paths and does the power of one movement exceed that of what two movements could do (imagine the regime taking on another front)?
How about a fourth explanation? The Green leaders are scared s%^&less for their lives right now? I mean, you CAN'T eliminate that, can you?
I would say there are many forces at work right now inside Iran.
Often, these movements cross paths and over lap. All the movements need each other.
One movement works in the shadows; and grows in the light. It plans to win and is guided by the political ideology of democracy.
It is grassroots bottom-up community organizing. It is secretive. They are working on political, social, and military issues. The leaders are not as important as the system. Think of it like a business plan which every cell follows.
This movement understands that it must be armed and prepared to defend life & property. It understands that it outnumbers the government 10 to 1. It knows it can not take the system head on; but is slowly replacing enemies with friends.
In fighting the war, it is stealthy, crafty, and just as ruthless as the regime. But it has mercy, honor, and believes in human rights. It's only objective: democracy.
In every city & village. It is being planned. In every corner of the nation, they speak of things in hushed voices; and behind closed doors.
They do not travel in groups; and they do not have a base. Members of one cell have no clue who members of other cells are. And it does not matter; for each cell has their own purpose.
When dealing with government agents and resources, they have no mercy.
When dealing with civilians; they show compassion and love.
They work to build a real alternative government. A living breathing system based upon democracy, the rule of law, justice, & human rights. A system that has proper checks & balances.
As will this movement and the war to win our freedom.
Because those who began this idea; believe in the ideas of George Washington; not mao or Che.
And although our members are secretive, I can publish all our plans on the internet and not care who reads it. And that is one of the great advantages.
What is this movement?
The Democratic nation of iran
http://iran115.org/manifesto
Rezvan,
I respectfully disagree with your perspective and have a lot to say about it. Unfortunately, I feel it will be a waste of time. I only would like to say REALLY (???????????) to your declarations such as opposition leaders have been able to exercise their constitutional rights, AN government has been astute, circumstances of Neda's death is in dispute. I wonder if you live on different planet or I do.
rezvan, the useful idiot, though somewhat more thoughtful with better thinking, since my last reply..some time ago.. . methinks
"At whatever cost AN’s govt has been able to restore calm, the opposition leaders are still relarively free & able to exercise some of their constitutional rights to campaign & speak freely.
Sure, with brutal repression and 'opposition', free to publish on youtube, facebook only.. that's what you're saying ?
jamshid -
you steal your ideas you're not authentic, you're a fake or a nutter. Nobody will ever take you seriously.
Well.
Thank you. You are very kind.
It won't keep me from trying though.
the real GREEN MOVEMENT consists of the people in Iran that are out protesting for their rights & to gain Full freedom from a torturous regime that has been nothing but abusive & oppressive for the past 30 years. so it's really not about Karoubi or moussavi anymore , although we should thank them for starting the movement with or without a choice. this green movement is all about the iranian people living in Iran & facing their fears with bravery one last time.
victory in near.