The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (13 February)

Related Post: Anticipating the New Israeli Government - Netanyahu or Livni?



1:55 p.m. An Israeli airstrike has killed one Gazan militant and critically wounded another. Two other people reported injured.

1:45 p.m. It looks like a prisoner swap involving Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is part of the cease-fire package. Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) is quoted by an Egyptian news agency, ""We want the release of our detainees in exchange for Shalit. If Israel agrees to our list, we will make the deal."

Hamas has submitted a list of 1400 prisoners; diplomatic sources say Israel is willing to free closer to 1000.

10:20 a.m. A series of details, some of them conflicting, are emerging over the possible Israel-Gaza cease-fire arrangement.

All accounts agree the time period is 18 months but the status of border crossings is unclear. Hamas has demanded a full opening, but the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot is reporting that Israel will only about 80 percent of goods to pass. Prohibited items would include "pipes, machines and other raw materials liable to be used to manufacture rockets and explosives", and the two sides are still at odds over cement, concrete and construction iron.

Reuters is reporting that the crossings will have international monitors and also some Palestinian Authority guards. Turkish forces may also be involved.

There are also differences in reporting on a possible prisoner swap involving kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has denied any arrangement involving Shalit, but Reuters, citing "Western and Palestinian officials", says a prisoner exchange is part of the deal.

7:40 a.m. Three Qassam rockets have hit the western Negev in Israel.

Morning Update (5:55 a.m. GMT; 7:55 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Hamas' declaration that a cease-fire agreement with Israel can be reached within 72 hours, which we noted in our last update yesterday, continues to be the top development. Moussa Abu Marzouk (pictured) says the proposal is for an 18-month cease-fire with opening of all border crossings.

The key question, of course, is whether Tel Aviv has indeed signalled its readiness that it will sign or whether Hamas is taking this public line to press the Olmert Government into acceptance.

Elsewhere, Egypt has seized 2200 tons of food and medical supplies that the Doctors' Syndicate was trying to take into Gaza and arrested two members of the aid committee. The seizure is both part of Egypt's general campaign to keep pressure on Hamas by limiting aid and part of Egyptian internal politics. The committee and the arrested men are linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (12 February)

9:35 p.m. A member of the Hamas negotiating team in Cairo says a cease-fire agreement with Israel will be announced within 72 hours. Israeli officials have offered no comment on the claim.

9:30 p.m. Evening Update: Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit says US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will attend an international donors' conference for Gaza next month in Cairo. Gheit met Clinton in Washington to urge a more "even-handed approach" to Israel and Palestine than that shown by the Bush Administration.

12:30 p.m. Interesting and little-noticed development in Cairo. High-ranking Fatah officials met the Hamas delegation on Tuesday, raising the possibility of a reconciliation. Hamas had earlier said that it would not attend a 22 February meeting in Cairo to discuss Palestinian unity, but Fatah's Azzam el-Ahmed says that the Gazan leadership is now considering attendance.



10:30 a.m. I Heart You from Tel Aviv: "Israel temporarily eased its blockade of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip on Thursday to allow Palestinian flower growers to export 25,000 blooms to Europe ahead of Valentine's Day."

Morning Update (8 a.m. GMT; 10 a.m. Israel/Palestine): No significant movement overnight on either the formation of the new Israeli Government or the Israel-Gaza cease-fire talks. There could be some development in Cairo today, at least in Hamas' position, as its delegation is meeting Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman.

Washington, after the high profile of the George Mitchell mission, is standing well back at the moment. Its token move yesterday was to welcome an Egyptian confernce on aid for Gaza, which will not take place until 2 March. Still, the US Government can't let go of its "Mahmoud Abbas Good, Hamas Bad" political approach: the US hopes the conference will "support the Palestinian Authority's plan for the reconstruction of Gaza as an integral part of a future Palestinian state".

Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Forces have carried out an airstrike against a target in southern Gaza.

Iran's Presidential Election: What Difference Does Khatami Make?

Our colleague Chris Emery offers this incisive assessment of former President Mohammed Khatami's declaration that he will stand in June's Presidential Election in Iran, taking us beyond the simplistic formula of Ahmadinejad v. Khatami:

Former two-term Iranian President Mohammed Khatami waited until almost the last possible minute before deciding to put his name on the ballot for the presidential elections in June. He only declared after a careful examination of the political environment and, more importantly, his electoral chances.



This scrutiny was not matched by the western media.

Their haste was perhaps predictable: Khatami is well-known and respected in the West. It was just too tempting to paint him as the reformist liberal who, in conjunction with the new saviour of American diplomacy, could genuinely transform US-Iranian relations. So it will now hold its collective breath that he will prevail against the hard-line incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The context of renewed hopes for rapprochement is, I suspect, of much less significance to the Iranian public’s perception of Khatami’s decision to run. And it is unlikely, though still unclear, that Khatami's decision was relatded President Ahmadinejad’s reciprocation of Barack Obama's offer for dialogue with America.

Whilst the prospect of a more moderate leadership in Washington and Tehran is gratifying, the characterisation of Khatami as "the Iranian Obama" or, even more erroneously, that Obama’s election provoked Khatami’s decision to run is patently false. Khatami’s decision to run rests on internal Iranian politics, the complex dynamics of which are hard to penetrate.

For example, it had been widely reported that Khatami would not run if former Prime Minister Mir-Hussein Mousavi chose to. Prior to his announcement, Khatami met with Mir Hossein Mousavi at the office of reformist politician and cleric Abdollah Nouri in northeast Tehran. So all Iranian eyes will now watch if Mousavi, another popular reformist, is now the one to withdraw.

Another egregious error, as typified by the BBC article that announced Khamtami’s decision, is the assumption that Iranians now face a choice between one hard-line conservative candidate (Ahmadinejad) and one liberal reformist (Khatami). Quite apart from failing to qualify terms such as "reformist", "liberal", and "conservative2, which have very different and dual meanings in Iran than in the West, it is rash to immediately reduce the election to a two horse race. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the popular Tehran mayor and veteran, remains firmly in the race and the chances of Mehdi Karoubi, who heads the reformist E'temad Melli Party, or former Prime Minister Mousavi cannot simply be discounted.

It is perhaps tempting, given the generally constructive rhetoric emerging from Washington, to link Khatami’s entry to the tentative prospect of normalised relations between Iran and the US. This is also an error. Firstly, Khatami's electoral prospects are not going to stand or fall on current developments in US-Iranian relations. Secondly, both sides will probably refrain from meaningfully pushing rapprochement until the election in Iran is finished. Thirdly, Khatami does not have a radically different attitude to Ahmadinejad on the main American concerns of Iran’s nuclear programme and its support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Fourthly, the final decision on rapprochement will not be made, in Tehran, by the president’s office- whoever is occupying it.

In any case, the election in June will not be fought over rapprochement with the US. Instead, if the contest comes down to a battle between Khatami and Ahmadinejad, it will be over presidential legacies and broken promises. Ahmadinejad’s failure to deliver on his promise to improve economic and employment conditions, at a time of increased oil revenue, has led to widespread disillusionment. Khatami has claimed a better economic record as president, yet he failed to deliver the reforms and greater openness his supporters sought.

Many questions, however, remain. Will Khatami’s entry damage the reformists’ prospects, uniting the conservatives against him, as Khatami must have feared? What will be the response of the influential former President Hashemi Rafsanjani who, according to different sources, is either refusing to support Khatami or trying to persuade Karoubi to step aside in favour of him?

The Latest from Israel-Gaza-Palestine (11 February): The Israeli Election

9:45 p.m. Still pursuing a cease-fire agreement with Israel, a senior Hamas delegation led by Moussa Abu Marzouk will hold talks on Thursday with Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman on Thursday.

9:40 p.m. Philip Rizk, the protestor detained by Egyptian authorities after his walk raising money for Gazans, has been released after more than four days of round-the-clock interrogation.

9:30 p.m. A bit of proxy battling over the Palestinian movement in Ankara today. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak represented the Palestinian Authority side of the talks, pressing for confirmation of the Palestinian Liberation Organization as the legitimate umbrella group. Turkey was more muted in its statements but continues to press for greater Hamas participation.



4:25 p.m. The Hamas government in Gaza has ordered international and local aid organisations providing emergency assistance to coordinate relief efforts with it, claiming "supplies brought in from abroad were being sold on the market".

3:55 p.m. Senior Israeli officials have insisted that talks on an Israel-Gaza cease-fire, mediated by Egypt, will continue despite uncertainty over the next Government: ""The current government headed by Ehud Olmert has full authority until a new government is sworn in. You cannot have a power vacuum."

3:45 p.m. Kadima leader Tzipi Livni has met Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the "far-right" Israel-Beitenu party, to discuss a possible coalition. Kadima has a projected 29 seats in the Knesset; Israel-Beitenu is a surprise third with 15.

Benjamin Netanyahu, head of Likud (28 seats) has met leaders of the ultra-orthodox Shas party (11 seats).

8:15 a.m. The Palestinian Authority has asked the International Criminal Court in The Hague to investigate allegations of war crimes by the Israeli military in the Gaza conflict.

8 a.m. On Tuesday, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon criticised Israel's continued blocking of aid into Gaza. Ban said one million Gazans needed relief supplies, but Tel Aviv was only allowing one crossing to open with aid for about 30,000 people.

Ban also confirmed that a survey team would be investigating Israeli attacks on UN facilities during the Gaza conflict.

Morning Update (6 a.m. GMT; 8 a.m. Israel/Palestine): Now the real politics begins in Israel.

Little change overnight in the forecast of results. Out of 120 seats in the Knesset, Kadima (Tzipi Livni) is projected to take 28 and Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) 27. Each of the two leading parties has claimed a mandate to govern, but each faces the reality of trying to forge a coaliation with the participation of other parties.

Of those parties, the "far-right" Israel-Beitenu of Avigdor Lieberman has emerged in third place with 15 projected seats, putting Labor --- the founding party of Israeli politics --- into fourth with 13.

With little resolved in Tel Aviv, perhaps the most significant reaction has come from Hamas. Spokesman Osama Hamdan has claimed that, with Israeli politics moving "to the right", the new Government will be led by "extremists". No surprise there, but Hamdan's follow-up is politically notable: he says the US Government's intervention is now essential for any political resolution.

The Latest on Israel-Gaza-Palestine (10 February)

10 p.m. The Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz is reporting that Benjamin Netanyahu of Likud and Avigdor Lieberman of Israeli-Beitenu have had a phone conversation about a possible coalition government.

9:40 p.m. A Qassam rocket has landed in the southern Negev in Israel.

8 p.m. Voting closes in Israeli election. First exit polls have Kadima (party of Tzipi Livni) at 30 seats; Likud (party of Benjamin Netanyahu) 28; "far-right" Israel-Beitenu (Avigdor Lieberman) 15. Labor (Ehud Barak) on course for worst performance ever.

As there are 120 seats in Knesset, there will have to be a coalition with at least 61 members to form a secure Government. That in turn means that even a Kadima-Likud coalition is not sure of a majority in the new parliament.

11:10 a.m. The New York Times has an article on the detention of student Philip Rizk by Egyptian authorities after his walk with friends to raise money for Gazans.

11 a.m. Hamas official Osama Hamdan says further manoeuvres for an agreement with Israel on Gaza will now depend on  the outcome of today's Israeli election: ""If [Likud leader Benjamin] Netanyahu wins, I don't think that the current government will conclude an agreement. If the current government wins, they could reach an agreement."

10:45 a.m. I'm Still Here. Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas, trying to assert his leadership as Hamas negotiates an agreement with Israel, has said he is ready to talk to Tel Aviv if "the new Israeli government a halt to new settlements".



Morning Update (9 a.m. GMT; 11 a.m. Israel/Palestine): The headline story is today's Israeli elections, which the media are now projecting as "too close to call" between the Likud Party of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Kadima Party of Tzipi Livni for the largest number of seats. The equally important --- indeed, more important --- issue will be the make-up of the inevitable coalition that has to be formed to govern Israel.

Meanwhile, former United Nations envoy Ian Martin will head a five-member panel investigating last month's Israeli attacks on UN facilities in Gaza.