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The regime's gamble is that enough Iranians will buy into the perception that the Rial has strengthened before a critical point is reached with its foreign reserves. Then the market can be funded with Iranians' own money, rather than that of a Government which is facing a halving of its revenues from oil exports.
That is not a market solution, but a "confidence" solution. It relies on the magic of the new rate, supported by the coercion of warnings not to put out alternative information that may be closer to the truth and of possible detention for traders who break the rules.
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