Afghanistan Analysis: Petraeus Hits Back at Karzai

So is the dispute between the Afghan Government and the US military serious or is it just a political show?

A day after President Hamid Karzai used The Washington Post to express his opposition to the current high-visibility US military presence, General David Petraeus, the commander of American forces, sent out his public-relations allies. According to "Afghan and US officials", Petraeus expressed "astonishment" and "disappointment" with the Post interview. He had warned Government advisors that the Karzai criticism threatened to undermine progress in the war and risked making the commander's position "untenable".

Specifically, Petraeus did not attend a scheduled meeting Sunday with Karzai. Instead he sought out Ashraf Ghani, who leads the Afghan government's planning on transition (and who has been a long-time favourite of Washington), to talk "hypothetical[ly]" of an inability to continue US operations.

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US-Europe Analysis: What Now for NATO's Nukes? (Futter)

Those expecting a radical change of NATO nuclear policy, or even an agreement to withdraw the 200 US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, are likely to be disappointed.  But this not equate to lack of "progress": to the contrary, modifying its nuclear declaratory policy, NATO will begin moving towards a position where these weapons can be removed or at least ensure that its policy is broadly supportive of the international non-proliferation regime and the quest for a nuclear free world.

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Afghanistan Confirmation: US Withdrawing July 2011 Date for Withdrawal (Youssef)

The Obama administration has decided to begin publicly walking away from what it once touted as key deadlines in the war in Afghanistan in an effort to de-emphasize President Barack Obama's pledge that he'd begin withdrawing U.S. forces in July 2011, administration and military officials have told McClatchy.

The new policy will be on display next week during a conference of NATO countries in Lisbon, Portugal, where the administration hopes to introduce a timeline that calls for the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan by 2014, the year when Afghan President Hamid Karzai once said Afghan troops could provide their own security.

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Afghanistan Corrected: US Officials "Did We Say Victory? We May Have Exaggerated."

Was it really only 11 days ago that Carlotta Gall of The New York Times, fed the line by the US military, was declaring that the Taliban had been "routed" and that high-profile pundits like Slate's Fred Kaplan were effusive about the superiority of US intelligence and rockets?

Was it only this past weekend that General David Petraeus, the US commander in Afghanistan, was proclaiming a key victory in southern Afghanistan?

Oops.

This from Greg Miller in today's Washington Post:

An intense military campaign aimed at crippling the Taliban has so far failed to inflict more than fleeting setbacks on the insurgency or put meaningful pressure on its leaders to seek peace, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials citing the latest assessments of the war in Afghanistan.

Escalated airstrikes and special operations raids have disrupted Taliban movements and damaged local cells. But officials said that insurgents have been adept at absorbing the blows and that they appear confident that they can outlast an American troop buildup set to subside beginning next July.

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Afghanistan: NATO Assists "Taliban Leaders" in Talks with Government (Filkins)

Talks to end the war in Afghanistan involve extensive, face-to-face discussions with Taliban commanders from the highest levels of the group’s leadership, who are secretly leaving their sanctuaries in Pakistan with the help of NATO troops, officials here say.

The discussions, some of which have taken place in Kabul, are unfolding between the inner circle of President Hamid Karzai and members of the Quetta shura, the leadership group that oversees the Taliban war effort inside Afghanistan. Afghan leaders have also held discussions with leaders of the Haqqani network, considered to be one of the most hard-line guerrilla factions fighting here; and members of the Peshawar shura, whose fighters are based in eastern Afghanistan.

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Pakistan: More Questions About A Closed Border and Burning Tankers (Fair)

why haven't attacks on the supply line to Afghanistan been more common? It's reasonable to argue that a dedicated and sensible insurgent would target these trucks along the way from Karachi to Torkham or to Chaman in Pakistan and from Torkham or Chaman to their final destinations within Afghanistan. This would be simple to do as the Pakistani security forces do not protect those privately-owned trucks and much of the route in Afghanistan winds through narrow mountain passes.

The answer is simple: trucking mafias and organized criminal and insurgent networks are all making money off of this system. The system of payoffs is elaborate yet elegant. Pashtuns dominate the trucking mafia in Pakistan and represent enormous financial interests in the fundamental integrity of the supply line system. The drivers and their companies must pay off Pakistani police and any other relevant government officials to secure "safe" passage and to resolve any "paperwork complexities."

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Pakistan and US: Border Opened to NATO Tankers But Tensions Continue (Cole)

The Pakistani government has decided to reopen the Torkham border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the route whereby 70 percent of US/NATO supplies and 40 percent of fuel are brought by truck into Afghanistan. The Pakistani Frontier Corps and the Afghanistan National Army began work Sunday to coordinate the clearing of the huge backlog of trucks that have been stuck at the crossing for a week and a half. Some reports say that the opening is expected to occur on Monday.

Pakistan closed the crossing to trucks transporting goods for NATO & the US after a September 30 incident in which US helicopter gunships made incursions into Pakistani territory and then fired missiles at a Frontiers Corps checkpoint, apparently mistaking the scouts for Taliban. Two scouts were killed and four wounded. Pakistani nerves were already raw because of unmanned drone strikes on Pakistani territory.

US President Barack Obama and Gen. David Petraeus appear to have decided to push for more hot pursuit missions into Pakistan from Afghanistan, and this decision was absolutely unacceptable to the Pakistani military, as well as to the public.

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Pakistan Analysis: Has Islamabad Stopped the US Offensive in Afghanistan? (Porter)

UPDATE 1400 GMT: Pakistan's Foreign Ministry has issued a statement, "After assessing the security situation in all its aspects, the government has decided to reopen the Nato/Isaf supply from the Pakistan-Afghanistan border at Torkham with immediate effect."

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Latest news from south-western Pakistan is that gunmen have set fire to nearly 30 tankers parked near a roadside restaurant near the town of Sibi.

By continuing its halt in NATO convoys headed for Afghanistan through the Torkham border crossing into a second week, Pakistan's military leadership has brought an end to the unilateral attacks in Pakistan pushed by Gen. David Petraeus and forced Washington to make a new accommodation.

And it may make it impossible for Petraeus to make the argument in the future that the United States can succeed in Afghanistan, given the refusal of Pakistan to budge on the issue. 

The halt in NATO convoys bound for Afghanistan and unhindered attacks on tanker trucks have continued despite a decision by the White House to direct U.S. Ambassador to Pakistan Anne Patterson and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen to apologise to the Pakistani government for the deaths of three Pakistani soldiers resulting from a U.S. helicopter raid from Afghanistan into Pakistan.

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Pakistan: US Apologises (Kind Of) But Islamabad Keeps Border Closed

The US Government has offered a series of apologies to Islamabad for airstrikes and cross-border raids that killed Pakistani soldiers. General David Petraeus, the US commander in Afghanistan, said coalition forces "deeply regretted" the "loss of life". Anne Patterson, the US ambassador to Islamabad, cited the importance of “Pakistan’s brave security forces”. The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, offered a private apology to the head of Pakistan’s military, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, in a telephone call.

In the understatement of the year, "American and NATO officials said privately that the Pakistani government’s closing of a crucial border crossing might have made it easier for militants to attack backed-up tanker trucks carrying fuel through Pakistan to Afghanistan to support the American war effort".

Yet I'm not sure, at least from the account in The New York Times, how fulsome the US apology is. The emphasis of the story is, yeah, yeah, stuff happens, but let's get over it.

Certainly Islamabad is, at best, taking its time before accepting US apologies as sincere. Abdul Basit, Pakistan's foreign ministry spokesman, said on Thursday that authorities were still evaluating the situation and a decision to reopen the Torkham crossing to NATO tankers, supplying troops in Afghanistan, will be taken "in due course".

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Pakistan: More Attacks on NATO Tankers as Islamabad Challenges Washington

The fourth attack in six days on NATO oil tankers killed one person and burned at least 20 vehicles. 

The attack outside the city of Quetta was claimed by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, which said the assaults "will further intensify attacks with the intensification of US drone strikes" in the country. 

Beyond the "Taliban", however, the political and military story is the Pakistani Government's acceptance of the attacks on its American ally. Islamabad is still blocking the key supply route to Afghanistan through the Khyber Pass. While another route into southern Afghanistan is still open, the Khyber Pass road has been the main supply line. About 70% of NATO's supplies in Afghanistan come through the Pakistani port of Karachi.

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