The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (9 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (10 January)
Latest Post: Gaza: The Mass Killing in Zeitoun
Gaza: Tasteful Video Game of the Day
Headline Analysis: The United Nations “Cease-fire” Vote



1:35 a.m. We're going to get some downtime. Not a happy end to the day, I fear. The issue of whether a cease-fire will be observed, less than 24 hours after the passage of the UN resolution, is already long-gone. Instead, the overnight question will be how far Israel expands military operations. The United States, not only with its abstention in the UN but with subsequent statements (more on that in the morning), has thrown its weight behind the Israeli course of action. Conversely, with the failure of the resolution to go anywhere, the Arab states --- including the Palestinian Authority --- and the European Union seem to be in disarray.

There may be some developments in Cairo, where talks on the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal resume. And one can only hope that there is something positive to report, such as a resumption of UN aid and a true "respite" in the bombing, on the humanitarian front.

Peace to all.



11:10 p.m. Here's one for the Israel Info Guys in Tel Aviv and New York.

You know the "human shields" line that Hamas hides behind civilians, especially women and children, to conduct their nefarious activities? Well, a released Gazan detainee has offered an inconvenient twist --- at least for Israel:

In the first day (of the ground offensive) special forces stormed Beit Lahiya. Maybe a thousand soldiers landed on rooftops then began arresting people....They used us as human shields in military positions they established inside Gaza Strip before they drove us to a prison in Beersheba. They made us sleep on gravel, or on the sand. They stripped us of our clothes.

And here's a little footnote: "They used a bulldozer to pile up the bodies of the dead."

10:45 p.m. One to Watch for Tomorrow. After a meeting at the Israeli Defense Ministry, the United Nations has agreed to resume aid shipments into Gaza. The organisation said in a statement, "The U.N. received credible assurances that the security of U.N. personnel, installations and humanitarian operations would be fully respected."

8:30 p.m. Today's meeting of the Israeli Security Cabinet meeting lasted four hours. There was no announcement of the Cabinet's decision, if any, on ground operations. Instead an Israel statement said that the Cabinet decided to continue humanitarian activity in Gaza and keep up efforts "to prevent the smuggling of war materiel into the Gaza Strip".

8:25 p.m. Updated Gazan health toll: 789 dead of whom 230 are children, 92 are women. Around 60 of the dead were elderly. Six were paramedics, and two were journalists.

8:20 p.m. Al Jazeera says senior Hamas delegation en route to Cairo for talks. 8:05 p.m. One journalist lightly wounded in Israeli attack on building used by media. Israeli spokesman Mark Regev says Israeli military were targeting the "antenna".

7:50 p.m. Finally, a possible explanation for all the Israeli movement around Beit Lahiya a couple of hours ago. The military arm of Hamas, the Al Qassam Brigades, are claiming that they killed eight Israeli soldiers in an ambush in the area. Israeli Defense Forces would have responded by sending in more ground units to push back and attack the ambushers.

6:35 p.m. Israeli forces have apparently hit Gazan headquarters of Iran's Press TV, though no casualties reported.

6:20 p.m. Quality Journalism in Action. CNN's Jim Clancy: "Will [Hamas] keep a cease-fire? Their brand is militancy and their message is rocketry."

5:50 p.m. Tear gas used on demonstrators in Amman. Al Jazeera cameraman injured.

5:30 p.m. A dark spot on the military developments with no significant updates.

5:10 p.m. How to Define an Effective Media: While Israel launches significant ground operation which may be "Phase 3" of invasion, CNN has taken no notice but is letting Israeli spokesman Mark Regev trot out his talking points for several minutes.

5:05 p.m. Now becoming obvious from Al Jazeera and Gazan witnesses that major Israeli ground operation underway, with movement of tanks underneath "smoke (white phosphorous?) bombs" towards Beit Lahiya and Beit Lahoun

5 p.m. Large explosion reported near tunnels in Rafah although tanks have "pulled back slightly" from Khan Yunis. Reports of "intense fighting" in Jabaliya and explosion over Beit Lahoun. Unconfirmed reports of use of white phosphorous.

3:35 p.m. Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's rejection of the UN cease-fire resolution is unequivocal: "The state of Israel has never agreed that any outside body would determine its right to defend the security of its citizens."

3:25 p.m. Gillerman repeats again and again that the civilian casualties are occurring because Hamas has the population "in a hostage situation". Which raises the question: at what point do you stop killing hostages?

3:20 p.m. Classic non-contradiction of the day.  Dan Gillerman, Israel's information coordinator, to Al Jazeera: "This is not a public relations exercise."

3:05 p.m. Al Jazeera analysis: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni ready to halt operations because Israel has sent sufficient signal, Defense Minister Ehud Barak wants to give diplomacy a chance to work, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wants to press ahead with military campaign

3 p.m. Israeli bombardment continues, as Gazan death toll reaches 781. More than 30 rockets fired into southern Israel today. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says cease-fire "unworkable" in light of rocket attacks.

Two of the recent strikes hit a petrol station, sending dark smoke for two hours over Gaza City, and a bus station.

2:22 p.m. Photojournalist Samah Habeeb, who we are following on Twitter, spoke 36 hours ago to The Indypendent of New York City. It is a fascinating and terrifying interview:

There is no bread. There is no sugar. There is no gas. There is no fuel. There is no electricity and there is no wood. There is no cement. Everything you can imagine, we do not have. And this was a problem that started with the blockade and that has accentuated since the attacks began. It was preplanned. It is not only a matter of a rocket being fired here and there. It is a strategy that Israel has followed.

2:12 p.m. Military analyst Theodore Karasik on Al Jazeera: Israel "definitely" using white phosphorous bombs in Gaza. Inevitable that, in crowded area such as Gaza, civilians will be affected, receiving "third-degree burns".

2:08 p.m. Al Jazeera reports live from demonstrations in West Bank in Bili'n. Israeli troops now chasing the demonstrators deeper into the town.

Demonstrators are wearing striped shirts in reference to the concentration camps of World War II and have also compared today's Gaza to the Warsaw Ghetto.

Demonstrations have also taken place after Friday prayers in East Jerusalem.

2:05 p.m. Today's "respite" is a sham. Israel has been attacking without pause --- Al Jazeera's correspondent on Israel-Gaza border reports with smoke billowing behind him --- and Hamas is sending rockets across. No possibility of aid coming in.

1:05 p.m. Israel says it hopes to get 60 trucks with aid into Gaza today. The announcement is pointless, apart from public relations, as the United Nations has said it will not carry out shipments unless it has assurances of security from Israeli attacks.

1 p.m. Israeli raids on more than 50 targets today, while 25 rockets launched into southern Israel.

12:30 p.m. A follow-up to our report on yesterday's mass killing in Zeitoun is now posted.

12:10 p.m. If there's a three-hour respite, it's not a very good one. Two explosions, one live on Al Jazeera, in northern Gaza in last 10 minutes.

12:05 p.m. Why no word today on the talks in Cairo on the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal?

12 noon: Israeli bombardment continues. Loud explosions in Jabaliya and Beit Hanoun. Confirmation that six people killed in Beit Lahiya.

Confusion as Israeli military says there will be three-hour respite today but will not confirm the time.

11:35 a.m. Photojournalist Sameh Habeeb, on Twitter from Gaza: "tired from Israeli war.....I can't sleep".

11:25 a.m. Israeli forces have "locked down" the West Bank for 48 hours, with no movement in or out except for emergencies and special cases. Thousands of police officers have been deployed in East Jerusalem in response to Hamas' call for a "day of wrath". Friday is prayer day for Muslims.

11:10 a.m. Al Jazeera: Unofficial Israeli comment about UN Security Council vote is largely negative. One official calls it a "victory" for the "terrorist lobby".

Israeli Security Cabinet now meeting to discuss its next steps. Israeli military commanders reportedly complaining that they are in a "holding position", making them easier targets for Hamas --- three Israeli soldiers were killed on Thursday.

10:55 a.m. Jerusalem Post: "Iran's top leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei] banned hardline Iranian volunteers on Thursday from leaving the country to carry out suicide bombings against Israel, but he warned that Iran would not spare any effort to assist Hamas in other ways." The newspaper reports that Khamenei told IRIB television, ""I thank the pious and devoted youth who have asked to go to Gaza ... but it must be noted that our hands are [tied] in this arena."

10:45 a.m. Just One More Tragedy: A new Web-based project, "Alive in Gaza", was due to be launched this week. Its aim was to bring stories of Gazans, as it had done with Iraqis with the earlier project "Alive in Baghdad", to those outside the country.

Yesterday, news came through that the cousin of the project coordinator had been killed in an Israeli airstrike, apparently on a Gaza City market. So Alive in Gaza's first post is "Omar Ali Abumghaiseeb killed in Israeli Airstrike".

10:20 a.m. Palestinian Authority (West Bank) Foreign Minister Riad al-Maliki expressed caution, even scepticism, about the United Nations Security Council vote for a cease-fire: "I'm really worried...that Israel will takes it time before it recognises the fact that it has to adhere to the resolution."

At the same time, al-Maliki is guarded in his criticism of the US abstention, framing his surprise in the context of praise for the US contribution "to the formation of the resolution....It has been an integral part...from the beginning."

Morning Update (10 a.m. Israeli/Gaza time): Israeli bombardment continues throughout Gaza. Reports of clashes in neighbourhood just northeast of Gaza City.

Hamas official Ghazi Hamid, speaking in Rafah, Egypt, tells CNN that the organisation's fighters are "still strong": "I want to say that we as Palestinian people want to live in peace, security -- but I think [Israel's] occupation force will not give us the chance."

"Several rockets" have hit southern Israel overnight.

The Israeli Invasion of Gaza: Rolling Updates (8 January)

Later Updates: The Israeli Invasion of Gaza (8 January --- Evening)

Latest article: Follow-Up on Gaza: Was the Israeli Attack Planned in June?

3:48 p.m. The perils of Twitter. CNN's story on an Israeli strike on a school in northern Gaza, circulated 30 minutes ago, was actually about the strike on Jabaliya two days ago.

3:30 p.m. Missed this earlier: an eighth Israeli soldier has been killed, hit by an anti-tank missile.

3 p.m. Israeli military says 20 rockets fired from Gaza on Wednesday and 16 so far on Thursday, numbers which are still down from levels at start of conflict. Further evidence that Hamas military units are limiting deployments in the field and staying in cities?



2:15 p.m. Al Jazeera now has a full report on the Israeli firing on the UN aid convoy. One Palestinian was killed.

Israeli operations in Rafah, after warnings to residents to evacuate their homes, concentrated on the bombing of tunnels rather than entry into the city.

2:03 p.m. If We Can't See It, It Doesn't Exist: CNN International has nothing --- nothing --- on the Red Cross report of dead and wounded and firing upon medical personnel by Israeli forces.

It does, however, report on Israeli forces bulldozing a Gazan house, despite white flags on the roof, because correspondent Ben Wedeman can see it from across the border.

2 p.m. Gazan resident Fares Akram writes about yesterday's "respite":

Most people headed for the bakeries, others rushed around with empty containers looking for drinking water. I joined a queue in front of a bakery but unfortunately returned without a single loaf since the bread ran out before it was my turn. Going to the green market was disappointing; there weren't enough vegetables. There were onions and cucumbers but tomatoes, the one thing everyone wants, were scarce. Nor was there any eggplant. There was something on sale that we don't use so much here: sweet pepper, considered a luxury because it's expensive.

1:35 p.m. More interesting stonewalling from IDF spokeswoman Liebovich: she denies any knowledge of Israeli forces firing on ambulances taking away Gazan wounded. Responding to Red Cross complaint, she says, "I don't think it's serious to investigate an event through a press release."

1:30 p.m. UN says aid convoy is fired upon by Israelis. Speaking to al Jazeera, Israeli Defense Forces spokeswoman Avital Liebovich claims to have no knowledge of incident.

Liebovich talks down the firing of rockets into northern Israel as an "isolated incident", indicating both Israel and Hezbollah wish to avoid a second front in the conflict.

1:05 p.m. One of the little-noticed curiosities of the Israeli campaign so far is the relatively light number of "militant" deaths. With more than 300 of the 700 dead are women and children, even if every male killed was a Hamas activist, less than 400 of the bad guys have been slain.

The probable reason? Unsurprisingly, Hamas fighters have not stayed out in the open to be picked off by Israeli forces but have gone back into urban areas. This explains in part why the Israeli Cabinet is in protracted deliberations over whether to order its military into the cities.

The Washington Post has further details.



12:50 p.m. Confirmation of more than 60 Israeli airstrikes overnight, a significant escalation

12:30 p.m. The Israeli Consulate in New York will not be amused: The New York Times has three opinion pieces today --- by Rashid Khalidi, Nicholas Kristof, and Gideon Lichfield --- critical of Israeli strategy and operations in Gaza.

12:10 p.m. Israeli Cabinet has postponed decision on expansion of ground offensive. Information is that minority in Cabinet wish to expand immediately, expelling Hamas and occupying Gaza until a new "responsible" government can be established. Minister of Defense Ehud Barak opposes, however, preferring to exhaust all diplomatic options before moving to a "Phase 3" of the invasion.

Further information that Barak and Olmert support the diplomatic route while Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is in favour of expanded military operations.

12 noon: Israeli bombardment continues near Jabaliya and Beit Lahoun in northern Gaza.

11:38 a.m. Al Jazeera correspondent says "remarkable" that no casualties in senior citizens' home hit by rocket in Nasariya in northern Israel.

11:35 a.m. Another diplomatic front: Iranian Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani met Syrian official and Hamas leaders, including Khaled Mashaal, on Wednesday. Larijani also met representatives of the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad.

11:30 a.m. Gazan death toll now over 700; one-third are children. Israeli death toll is 10, of which seven are soldiers.

11:25 a.m. International Committee of the Red Cross is demanding immediate access to Gaza. The demand follows the incidents in Zeitoun where, in addition to the discovery of dozens of bodies, Red Cross and Red Crescent workers found "weak children laying with their dead mothers".

11:15 a.m. Analysis in Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz:

The five [Israeli] brigades operating in the Strip are preparing as if they will be ordered to take over the entire Strip, but the General Staff believe that the politicians want a deal. In the field the sense is that Hamas has been pushed to the heart of the urban centers, and is avoiding direct contact with the IDF as much as possible.

11 a.m. Al Jazeera reports more rockets from Lebanon fired into northern Israel. Images of damage in Nahariya being shown. Israeli defense sources say that Hezbollah is not responsible; Palestinians in Lebanon more likely.

In Gaza, reports of an Israeli strike on a hospital.

Morning Update: Four rockets from Lebanon have struck northern Israel, wounding two people. The Lebanese Army says that "an unknown group" is responsible. Hamas has denied any involvement, and analysts are suggesting that Palestinians living in Lebanon may have fired the rockets.

The negotiations in Cairo today apparently will be "shuttle" negotiations with brokers talking to Israel and the Palestinian Authority and then to Hamas. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit confirmed that, if Hamas representatives attend, "they will not be in the same room as other negotiators".

The United Nations General Assembly will convene to discuss the crisis. This is a logical next step: the Libyan-drafted resolution for an immediate ceasefire will go before the Security Council on Thursday but, even if it had majority support, will be vetoed by the United States.

Rolling Updates on the Israeli Invasion of Gaza (7 January)

Later Story: Follow-Up: That State Department Twitter-Diplomacy….Gives the Game Away?
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Still Can't Get It Right
Later Story: Rice to UN: US Seeks Regime Change in Gaza
Later Story: Inconvenient (Rocket) Facts: Israel Gets Caught Out by the BBC


12:45 p.m. Relatively quiet on both military and diplomatic fronts --- not expecting much out of any United Nations discussions --- so we're off for some downtime.

Tomorrow should offer some clues on the political direction of the conflict. With Hamas as well as the Palestinian Authority and Israel going to Cairo for negotiations, there may be some indication as to whether Tel Aviv and Washington will accept a settlement that leaves Hamas in control of Gaza or whether they try to isolate the organisation.

Meanwhile, on the military front, we may get some indication --- given the reports of Israeli moblisation around Rafah and warnings to residents --- of whether Tel Aviv is going to take the ground offensive into the cities.

11:30 p.m. Gazan medical sources say 700 Gazans killed in conflict, 219 are children and 89 are women. More than 3000 wounded: 46 percent are women and children.

11:25 p.m. Jabaliya Doubled: The Daily Telegraph of London is reporting the discovery in Zeitoun by a paramedic of between 60 and 70 bodies of the al Samouni clan (initial reports had put the death toll at 13), killed by Israeli shelling.



About 15 members of the clan were injured. Eight were left behind when Israeli troops began firing on ambulances.

So far, Israel has made no claim that there was Hamas members firing mortars from the shelled house.

10:50 p.m. A summary of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah's speech on the Gaza situation --- "The Scheme is to Give West Bank to Jordan, Gaza to Egypt" --- is now posted in English on the Internet.

10:45 p.m. Took a break to post on today's How Not to Spin Information story: the Israeli consulate in New York, trying to prove Hamas was responsible for breaking the cease-fire, actually makes the case that the Gazan organisation was observing it.

8:45 p.m. Apologies --- missed this earlier. Israeli Cabinet postpones votes on expansion of ground offensive

8:40 p.m. Arab fightback? Representatives of Arab League at United Nations reject US-backed initiative for non-binding statement by President of Security Council and urge binding Security Council resolution for immediate cease-fire. Al Jazeera speculates this is because of growing "embarrassment" over Arab passivity in face of Mubarak-Sarkozy process.

8:30 p.m. Israeli military preparing for entry into Rafah in southern Gaza? Reports of leaflets being dropped on residents warning them to evacuate by 8 a.m. Gaza time

8 p.m. On CNN, French Foreign Ministry spokesman tries to reconcile different stories: Israel has welcomed "process" and "approach" of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal. Tel Aviv is sending senior advisor to Minister of Defense Ehud Barak to Cairo tomorrow.

Spokesman adds that discussions are taking place with Hamas via Egypt and Syria. On the Palestinian Authority-Hamas issue, he talks of "Palestinian reconciliation".

6:15 p.m. Retractions: French President Sarkozy's office acknowledges that Israel has not accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal while Israeli military says three-hour "respite" --- to take place every other day ---does apply to all of Gaza, not just Gaza City

5:25 p.m. Important development: Ahmed Youssef, political advisor to Hamas leader Ismail Haniya, tells Al Jazeera there are "good elements" in Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and hopes for clarification of provisions in next 48 hours. Youssef adds that he hopes negotiation of Mubarak-Sarkozy will be in conjunction with movement in United Nations towards a resolution.

Youssef says the "by-product" of rockets will end when the Israeli occupation is terminated, indicating Hamas will not accept a cease-fire which does not mention Tel Aviv's aggression: "As long as the occupation is there, we have to defend ourselves....When we have full control of our destiny....there will be no firing of rockets."

5:20 p.m. Thomas Friedman carries the media flag for Israel. His latest column in The New York Times, "The Mideast's Ground Zero", is being distributed via Twitter by the Israeli Consulate in New York. And no wonder, six years after Friedman marched into war with Iraq, he's still got an Axis of Evil to grind:

No doubt, Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran are hoping that they can use the Gaza conflict to turn Obama into Bush. They know Barack Hussein Obama must be (am)Bushed — to keep America and its Arab allies on the defensive. Obama has to keep his eye on the prize. His goal — America’s goal — has to be a settlement in Gaza that eliminates the threat of Hamas rockets and opens Gaza economically to the world, under credible international supervision.

5:15 p.m. Confusion over the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal and possible embarrassment for the French President. France had announced Israel's acceptance of the limited cease-fire, but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says that proposal is still being studied.

5 p.m. Two hours into the three-hour respite but Al Jazeera says there are reports of fresh fighting in Gaza City. Seven Israeli airstrikes, mainly in northeast Gaza.

The respite has allowed paramedics to get to some areas of Gaza for first time.

4:20 p.m. Israel "clarifies" the three-hour respite: says it applies only to Gaza City

3:45 p.m. A break from Gaza coverage to more important issues: CNN International is running an in-depth investigation of Oprah Winfrey's weight

3:20 p.m. Osama Hamdan of Hamas says organisation is considering Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal along with "other initiatives",  maintains cautious line --- "If we criticise Egypt, it does not mean we cannot discuss with Egypt"

3:12 p.m. Hamas officials say they are considering the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal.

3:10 p.m. French officials say both Israel and Palestinian Authority have accepted the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for a limited cease-fire and talks in Cairo.

3:05 p.m. Respite, after firing from both sides in opening minutes, reported to be "generally holding". At least 683 Gazans killed since start of conflict.

2:20 p.m. Report of "tens of thousands" of mourners at funerals of the victims of Jabaliya school/shelter bombing.

UN officials "99.9 percent certain" that there were no militants in the shelter.

2:00 p.m. An  hour after the "respite" began, shelling resumes north of Gaza City, although more civilians are on the streets in the centre of the city. Machine gun fire near Beit Lahoun.

1:35 p.m. Israeli Defense Forces say they have suspended operations for three hours. Hamas says it will match this by suspending firing of rockets.

1:10 p.m. Israeli airstrikes kill four people outside a  mosque in Gaza City and two people in the Zeitoun district. Explosions reported in Jabaliya and Beit Lahiya.



12:55 p.m. London-based Arabic-language newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi reports that officers of US Army Engineering Corps have been stationed at Rafah to unearth smugglers' tunnels --- unclear whether they are now on Egyptian or Gazan side or border

12:45 p.m. Israel seizes the media initiative, at least with CNN: its headline story is of Tel Aviv's offer of a "short respite" with the three-hour pause in bombing each day, while the Jabiliya deaths are at the foot of the story (and noted with "The Israeli military said Hamas militants were firing mortars from the school").

11:55 a.m. No humanitarian bombing pause yet: Al Jazeera reports heavy Israeli bombing around city of Rafah on Egypt-Gaza border.

11:34 a.m. Dan Gillerman, the former Israeli Ambassador to the UN and the coordinator of Israel's information operations, tells Al Jazeera that the deaths in the Jabaliya bombing are "horrible tragedy" but whereas each death is "a cause for sadness" for Israel, each is "a cause for celebration" for Hamas.

Gillerman refuses to address the question of whether Israel violated international law with the shelling of the school/shelter. John Ging, United Nations Relief and Works Agency official, repeats that the GPS coordinates of the school/shelter were given to Israeli forces, and calls for a "full investigation".

11:10 a.m. Israeli Cabinet currently discussing military operations, including possible expansion of ground offensive with mobilisation of tens of thousands of reservists. Israeli forces reported to be in "holding pattern" around Gazan cities.

11 a.m. Israel announces, for the "humanitarian corridor", that it will halt military attacks for three hours each day. Al Jazeera reports Gazan reaction: "What about the other 21 hours a day?"

10:20 a.m. I have known and learned for 20 years from Professor Avi Shlaim, one of Britain's foremost historians on the Middle East. In today's Guardian of London, he has an opinion piece, "How Israel Brought Gaza to the Brink of Humanitarian Catastrophe", offering the historical context to the current crisis:

This brief review of Israel's record over the past four decades makes it difficult to resist the conclusion that it has become a rogue state with "an utterly unscrupulous set of leaders". A rogue state habitually violates international law, possesses weapons of mass destruction and practises terrorism - the use of violence against civilians for political purposes. Israel fulfils all of these three criteria; the cap fits and it must wear it. Israel's real aim is not peaceful coexistence with its Palestinian neighbours but military domination.

9:40 a.m. The United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator has released a situation report, current to 6 p.m. on 6 January, detailing casualties and damages from Israeli bombing and shelling. It also sets out the status of medical services and shelter and the provision of food, fuel, water, and electricity.

9:15 a.m. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the deputy chief of Al Qa'eda, issued a statement calling the Gaza conflict a "gift" from President-elect Barack Obama with "that traitor" Hosni Mubarak as the main partner.

Frankly, I consider this a sign of the relative weakness and peripheral place of Al Qa'eda, except to a small group of core activists, not only in Gaza but in international affairs. Far more important, as Juan Cole has noted, is the impact upon local "insurgents" in places such as Afghanistan, as they use the wider policies of countries like the US to mobilise their supporters.

9:05 a.m. Other success of Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal is pushing the specific incident of the shelling of Jabaliya school/shelter, which killed at least 43 and wounded at least 100 Gazans, and the general humanitarian issue to the background. Al Jazeera is leading with the Jabiliya killings but other news services have put it in the background.

The Israeli proposal for a "humanitarian corridor" appears to be a public-relations success, at least for the moment. And, contrary to my opinion yesterday, it seems that Jabaliya will not be the successor to Qana (Lebanon) 2006, when dozens of civilian deaths in a single incident helped force an end to military operations.

Jabaliya was one of three schools/shelters struck yesterday. More than 660 Gazans have now died.

9 a.m. Lead development is the Mubarak-Sarkozy proposal for immediate cease-fire and meetings in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian "factions"

There is still lack of clarity on proposals such as arrangements for border security and when and to what extent blockade would be lifted. Perhaps most important, no confirmation on whether Hamas would be invited to negotiations. In fact, there is not even agreement on the cease-fire. United States is still holding out against any cessation of military operations.

However, immediate "success" of the proposal is to block any UN resolution on the crisis. Initiative is now clearly with France, Egypt as the Arab "leader", and --- behind them --- the US and European countries. If Israel and the Palestinian Authority play their parts,, then this could be an ambitious move for a "grand design" on Gaza. This would include isolating and possibly overthrowing Hamas.