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Entries in Hashemi Rafsanjani (27)


The Latest from Iran (19 June): Speeches and Rallies

Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader’s Address
Iran: Live Blog of Supreme Leader's Address (19 June)
NEW Transcript: Ayatollah Khamenei’s Speech at Prayers (19 June)
NEW Video: Obama Statement on Iran (19 June)
Latest Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran
Iran Eyewitness: The Wednesday and Thursday Demonstrations in Tehran
Iran Eyewitness: More Audio from “Alive in Tehran”
Text: Mousavi Speech to Tehran Rally (18 June)

The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to "A Sea of Black"

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KHAMENEI2003 GMT: From former President Mohammad Khatami's Facebook page: "Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi tomorrow at 4pm from Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. in Tehran for a crucial green protest."

2000 GMT: We've posted the video of President Obama's latest statement on Iran.

1955 GMT: The US Senate has followed the House of Representatives in a resolution supporting Iranian citizens espousing "the values of freedom".

1940 GMT: Reports that residents in Tehran again took to their rooftops tonight to shout, "God is Great" and "Death to the Dictator", despite the warning in Ayatollah Khamenei's address at Friday prayers.

1845 GMT: The US House Representatives has passed, by a 405-1 vote, the following resolution:
Expressing support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law, and for other purposes.

Resolved, That the House of Representatives—

(1) expresses its support for all Iranian citizens who embrace the values of freedom, human rights, civil liberties, and rule of law;

(2) condemns the ongoing violence against demonstrators by the Government of Iran and pro-government militias, as well as the ongoing government suppression of independent electronic communication through interference with the Internet and cellphones; and

(3) affirms the universality of individual rights and the importance of democratic and fair elections.

Representative Ron Paul of Texas cast the lone No vote.

1725 GMT: We've just posted a rough English-translation transcript of the Supreme Leader's speech.

1525 GMT: We've just posted Chris Emery's snap analysis of the Supreme Leader's speech, "7 Lessons".

1330 GMT: The Ministry of the Interior has turned down the application for a permit for Saturday's 4 p.m. march at Enqelab Square.

1300 GMT: Press TV English is focusing on the Supreme Leader's criticism of "Western countries" and "Western media" in his speech today calling for an end to "illegal rallies".This includes Khameini's misrepresentation of President Obama's statement this week: "The US President [said] Washington had been waiting for people to take to the streets."

Press TV English is also reproting on a "massive rally" by worshipers denouncing the West and expressing "their readiness to defend the achievements of the Islamic revolution".

1240 GMT: The Clerical Challenge? Today's Washington Times offers further details on Hashemi Rafsanjani's attempt to rally clerics against the electoral outcome: "Three grand ayatollahs have responded, but they are the same three who have gone on the record in the past denouncing government policies to little effect." They are Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who at one time was the designated successor to Ayatollah Khomeini but is now under effective house arrest, Ayatollah Yusef al-Sa'nei, and Ayatollah Mousavi Ardabili. According to the paper, "The dozen or so other senior clerics in Qom are doing little."

The report relies on Mehdi Khalaji, who is with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and has been a strident critic of the Iranian Government, but it does correspond with other information we have received.

1200 GMT: The opposition campaign has made an immediate response to Ayatollah Khamenei's challenge. According to reliable Twitter sources, there will be a rally at 4 p.m. local time in Enqelab Square. Presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and former President Mohammad Khatami will attend.

1005 GMT: And not too difficult to read the next critical step. Do the opposition campaigns and their supporters, given the Supreme Leader's threats against any new marches, stand down their plans to demonstrate tomorrow?

That decision will be made not only in response to today's speech but in response to the Guardian Council's meeting with representatives of Presidential campaigns tomorrow.

0953 GMT: Not too difficult to give an immediate reading of the Supreme Leader's address: he laid down the line to those challenging last Friday's election results. He declared that the outcome was final, indicating that any adjustment of "mistakes" would be far less than the 11-million vote lead of President Ahmadinejad. While not blaming the leader of opposition campaigns for violence, he said they would be "responsible" for "terrorist plots" carried out under cover of the demonstrations.

Khamenei's attacks on "Western interference" had a dual purpose. He was warning off other countries, especially the US (note the direct reference to President Obama's relatively mild statements about the demonstrations), from any intervention. At the same, he was using that pretext of "intervention" to mobilise support for the re-election of President Ahmadinejad.

And there was also a challenge to former President Rafsanjani to cease and desist in his own attempts to challenge Ahmadinejad and, by implication, the Supreme Leader. I may have immediately mis-heard/mis-interpreted Khamenei's references to Rafsanjani and "corruption" --- analysts are saying that the Supreme Leader was not targeting Rafsanjani's allegations of corruption against Ahmadinejad; instead, Khamenei was offering a conciliatory hand by chiding the President's allegations against Rafsanjani --- the final statement was definitive: "I am closer to the President's views."

0945 GMT: We've moved the live blog of Supreme Leader's address to a separate entry.

0815 GMT: In Britain, Al Jazeera is giving a English translation of the Supreme Leader's address. CNN is carrying out a commentary, while Sky News is taking the Press TV English feed.

0810 GMT: The Supreme Leader has now appeared in the square, which is opposite Tehran University.

0805 GMT: Press TV English is providing live coverage of Friday prayers, with a large crowd awaiting the Supreme Leader. Their current commentary is defending the recent silence of President Ahmadinejad and his advisors, as the "powerful bodies" of the Assembly of Experts, Expediency Council, and Ministry of the Interior are making the necessary statements. Their analyst, Nader Mokhtari, is praising "a tribute to the strength of Iranian democracy that allows people to go out and voice their opinions and voice their grievances on the streets. It shows a great degree of tolerance in the face of destruction that has been wrought on Tehran by certain elements."

0710 GMT: Tehran Bureau has posted an interesting overview of the political battle between former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "Rafsanjani's Next Move".

0700 GMT: It is 1130 GMT and almost everyone, including news reports, are awaiting the Supreme Leader's appearance. An Iranian witness has told "Alive in Tehran" (see separate post) that, rather than marching to prayers, the opposition protestors will demonstrate on Saturday.

We have also posted eyewitness testimony from Thursday's demonstration and the text of Mir Hossein Mousavi's speech to the rally.

Morning Update (0530 GMT): The Known: the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, will address those attending Friday prayers in Tehran. It will be his first public appearance since the election, and his first statement since his call for "calm" and "unity" earlier this week after meeting with representatives of the Presidential campaigns. The event will be shown live by State media, including Press TV English.

The Unknown: it is unclear whether opposition campaigns, notably that of Mir Hossein Mousavi, will organise a march to today's prayers or whether they will hold a demonstration on Saturday, when the Guardian Council will be meeting with representatives of all four Presidential candidates.

It is even more uncertain what is happening in political and religious gatherings behind the scenes. In particular, there is speculation about the latest initiatives of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, who has been trying to organise clerical protest and even a formal position of the Assembly of Experts and Expediency Council against the electoral outcome. We have gathered some interesting analysis about Rafsanjani's position and will be posting later today.

Press TV continues to give prominence to the "official" Government line, featuring not only the Supreme Leader's Friday speech and the Guardian Council's Saturday meeting with the campaigns but also an extended report on protests in London against the BBC's coverage of the crisis. However, the broadcaster is also referring (briefly) to Thursday's demonstration in Tehran and noting Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei's appeal for details of the vote recount (he was turned down sharply). CNN's correspondent in Tehran says he is now restricted to one report per day --- today, it will be the Supreme Leader at Friday prayers, the images of which can be broadcast --- and CNN crew's requests for extensions of visas are being turned down.

Iran: Live Blog of Supreme Leader's Address (19 June)

NEW Iran: The 7 Lessons of the Supreme Leader’s Address
Transcript: aAyatollah Khamenei's Speech at Prayers (19 June)
The Latest from Iran (19 June): The Supreme Leader Speaks

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KHAMENEI2A correction: it seems I mis-heard the passage on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and "corruption". The Supreme Leader was apparently chiding President Ahmadinejad, rather than Rafsanjani, for allegations during the campaign, as well as praising Rafsanjani's devotion to the Revolution. Still, the political conclusion, "I am closer to the President's views", was a message to Rafsanjani to stop challenging the election.

A second, less important clarifcation: apparently my confusion at 0950 was because of shaky translation and the rather unusual linkages of the Supreme Leader. My colleague Steve Hewitt says the BBC translated Khameini's remarks as referring to the 1993 FBI siege of the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas. Still don't see how the Supreme Leader is using this to challenge "Western" electoral politics and demonstrations, however.

And finally (I hope) Mir Hossein Mousavi was not at prayers as a Twitter report initially indicated. All leading opposition politicians stayed away.

0953 GMT: Supreme Leader now concluding to standing acclaim from audience: "Patience. May God Bless You All."

0950 GMT: I am lost in confusion, probably because of translation, over a passage where the Supreme Leader apparently talked about violence during the last US Presidential election when "80 people were burned in a house".

0944 GMT: Supreme Leader claims that, when Western countries noted the intense discussion during the Iranian elections and demonstrations afterwards, they "showed their true face" by intervening. He cites Barack Obama's statement earlier this week.

Supreme Leader claims that Western countries have spent "tens of millions" to effect a counter-revolution on the lines of the Rose Revolution in Georgia.

0940 GMT: Supreme Leader now turns again to "Western media" and "Western countries", especially US and some European countries.

0939 GMT: If these "terrorist" activities continue, "I will have to come back here and speak more clearly and straightforwardly." Huge response from crowd.

0935 GMT: I think there was a veiled apology for the raid on Tehran University dormitories, attacking students who were "believers" rather than enemies. This, however, was prompted by the unrest of "terrorist" activity.

0933 GMT: And now the warning against further demonstrations. The Supreme Leader talks of disruption of "normal life" by "terrorist plots" while people are carrying on demonstrations. If this happens, or if there is trouble with the paramilitary Basiji, "who will take the responsibility?"

0930 GMT: Now the attack on "Western" countries. Diplomats "are showing their real face, they are showing they are real enemies against the Islamic Republic." Britain is singled out.

0927 GMT: Sup Leader - Leaders of campaigns "should be careful how they are acting, careful what they are saying". Otherwise, this could provoke "extremists".

"To my old friends, my brothers, please be patient."

0924 GMT: Sup Leader - If challenges continue to election, "the legal framework will be broken".

0920 GMT: Supreme Leader - "Nothing can be changed. It's finished, the Presidential campaign."

"There is no cheating inside the election system, and it's well-controlled." There might be 100,000 or 200,000 or 1 million in "mistakes" but "11 million is not possible". Huge response from crowd. (Apparently, the chant is, "Death to Israel.")

0919 GMT: Nice touch. Supreme Leader just pointed to "corruption" in the "UK Parliament". While busy, he seems to have had the time to monitor the uproar over the expenses of British Parliamentarians.

0917 GMT: Supreme Leader - "We have to fight corruption," but Islamic Republic is "one of the most healthy systems in the world". It is "Zionist source" condemning Iran.

This is not-so-veiled slapdown of Rafsanjani for alleging corruption under Ahmadinejad's Presidency.

0915 GMT: Supreme Leader - "I have some differences of point of view" with "Mr Hashemi", and there were "differences of point of view" in last election between Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani.

"The President was closest to my point of view." Loud response from audience.

0911 GMT: Showdown! Supreme Leader just directly criticised former President Hashemi Rafsanjani for his allegations of corruption during the campaign.

Supreme Leader is continuing with long background of Rafsanjani's history during Revolution: "he was one of the most helpful" persons "nearest to the Imam". Wait for the next assault....

0909 GMT: Supreme Leader now denouncing "lies", "calumny", and "rumours" against President Ahmadinejad.

0905 GMT: Supreme Leader turns to the "negative impact" of the election process. He liked the "freedom" that the process demonstrated, but there were also some "bad words" and "bad points, problems" from "followers of some candidates". This has provoked criticisms (from outside the country) which Iranian people should be ready to answer.

0900 GMT: Supreme Leader just set down his line challenging opposition demonstrations, "Everything was clear to the people". In other words, fair and legitimate election.

0857 GMT: Supreme Leader - rest assured that all four Presidential candidates came "from within system...of Islamic Republic", including President, Prime Minister for eight years (Mousavi), Commander-in-Chief of Revolutionary Guards (Rezaei), President of Iranian Parliament (Karroubi). All were "approved by me".

Khamenei praises the serious debate in the campaign with "clear, honest" points "from the bottom of the heart".

0854 GMT: Supreme Leader - Charges of election fraud whipped up by "Iran's enemies", even before the vote. These enemies included "dirty Zionists" and "British radio".

0851 GMT: Supreme Leader to Iran's "enemies" - "If our young people didn't have any hope, they wouldn't participate in this election."

0849 GMT: Reports that Ahmadinejad and Mousavi sitting a few feet apart from each other in front row for Supreme Leader's address.

0847 GMT: Supreme Leader - Iran election an "earthquake" for its enemies and a "historical celebration" for its friends.

0843 GMT: Supreme Leader - Iranian people "showed their love for their regime"; you could not find comparable in "so-called democratic countries". This brings a response from the crowd. He then gives special attention to "youth and young people" who showed "their political conscience".

0840 GMT: Supreme Leader turning to "main issue" of elections with three audiences: 1) "Dear People" 2) Iran's political leaders 3) Western countries and media.

0833 GMT: Supreme Leader says that, despite "distortions" and "troubles", "our people are believers". However, "our youth inside a naturalistic world with troubles...don't know what to do....They don't know how to go back to spirituality."

0820 GMT: Supreme Leader using story of Prophet Mohammad to talk about facing enemies and having "merciful attitude" towards unbelievers. This will ensure "quiet and peaceful mind" despite stressful situations.

The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to "A Sea of Black"

The Latest from Iran (19 June): The Known and the Unknown

Iran: EA’s Chris Emery in The Guardian – “Khamenei’s Supreme Dilemma”
Iran: What’s Happening? Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter
LATEST Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran
Iran after the Elections: Confession, Accusation and Warning from Israel
The Latest from Iran (17 June): Uncovering the News on Attacks, Protests, and the Supreme Leader

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IRAN DEMOS 41805 GMT: I'm off to see Billy Bragg in concert, hoping he will do a version of "Waiting for the Great (Green) Leap Forward". Mike Dunn and Ali Yenidunya are keeping an eye out for any big developments.

1715 GMT: The rally, estimated by BBC as "100,000" people, has taken place peacefully in Tehran, with Mir Hossein Mousavi addressing the crowd.

I have just finished an interview with BBC World. It was clear, from preparation as well as the actual discussion, that BBC --- with their correspondent in Tehran effectively under "lockdown" --- is increasingly relying on "talking heads" with connections to Iran to provide information on detentions and political manoeuvres. (Sub-text: EA readers, please keep sending any information/feedback you might have.)

1520 GMT: Revelation or political stunt? Iranian state-run media reporting that authorities "thwarted a terrorist plot to plant bombs in mosques and other crowded areas in Tehran on election day".

1425 GMT: The health of Ibrahim Yazdi, who was detained yesterday in a hospital in Tehran and taken to Evin Prison, is reported as critical. Apparently, Yazdi has been returned to hospital and his family called to immediately go there.

1335 GMT: Intriguing coverage of the opposition rallies on Press TV's English-language website. The lead is a statement by a Mousavi advisor that those causing violence are "not supporters of, or linked to Mousavi or his camp." The report puts a question mark over the official results ("According to the Interior Ministry [Mousavi] has lost to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad even in the East-Azerbaijan province where he hails from") and notes "mass rallies by hundreds of thousands of Mousavi's supporters".

No news on the site yet of today's protest.

1330 GMT: Further to Chris Emery's excellent analysis of the political battle at the highest levels of the Iranian Government, this quote from an article in the Los Angeles Times: "'It's very civilized, like a game of chess,' said one figure in Rafsanjani's inner circle. 'But our game is with Khamenei. Ahmadinejad is just a pawn.'"

1150 GMT: Spinning the Arrests: Press TV is quoting the Intelligence Ministry that it has arrested a number of "main agents" behind post-election violence.

Reports that Sharif, Tehran, Polytechnic, Shiraz, and Tabriz Universities are closed with Sharif University examinations delayed to September.

1145 GMT: Cyber-Politics: the Facebook page of Mir Hossein Mousavi has become a hot location for dissemination of information and a rallying of political views and comment.

1130 GMT: Spokesman for Guardian Council says that they will meet three Presidential candidates --- Mousavi, Rezaei, and Karroubi --- on Saturday: "This will enable them to raise issues and points they wish to discuss with the members of the council, and also provide a direct contact with the candidates."

1100 GMT: The main opposition rally will take place at 4 p.m. local time (1130 GMT) in Imam Khomeini Square in Tehran. Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi will be present.

Ibrahim Yazdi, leader of the Freedom for Iran movement, has been arrested in hospital. (Yazdi was to have been arrested on Tuesday, but security forces found that he was not at home.)

Reports from inside Iran indicate the scale of the crackdown on dissent, both with criticism of the opposition candidates and their supports and with a focus on Western interference via media and the Internet.

There is a claim on Twitter that the Mayor of Tehran, in a secret report to Parliament, estimated the size of Monday's rally at close to 3 million.

0800 GMT: Juan Cole has posted two US Government Open Source translations of the Iranian media: a state-run Isfahan TV report on the violence of "a group of adventurists" and the comments of the police chief of Fars Province: ""From today police will give no leeway to opportunist elements trying to provoke disorders during these demonstrations."

0630 GMT: A poster at "Anonymous Iran" is offering a summary of stories from Twitter: "There is NOTHING included here that is not from a reliable tweet." While caution is needed with this purported information, many of the points have been verified in part or in full by other sources, including the threat to protestors from "plainsclothesmen" and the location of demonstrations across Iran. We'll post the full summary in a separate post in the next hour.

Morning Update (0600 GMT): The dominant colour of the Iranian crisis changes from Green to Black this afternoon, as tens of thousands of opposition marchers are expected in Tehran. Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi has called for demonstrators to produce "a sea of black", wearing dark clothing in mourning for those killed in Monday's rally and other incidents across Iran.

Elsewhere, the political colour is a very murky grey. International media continue to be cut off from events. Perhaps more significantly, state-run Press TV has now pulled back not only from any references to opposition marches but also to criticism of the Government, such as the Parliament-led call for an enquiry into the security forces' raids on university dormitories. Instead, Iran's media are concentrating on attacks on Western "interference".

So what might be happening? There is no news from the Guardian Council's supposed recount of the vote. Instead, Government authorities are focusing on the role of the Supreme Leader in uniting the country. Ayatollah Khameini's leading of Friday prayers is now a key event in this effort, with offers to transport people from around the country to Tehran. In contrast, nothing has been heard from President Ahmadinejad.

On the other side, Mousavi's call for a re-run of the election is likely to be joined by Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaei (the other candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, is already appearing in opposition rallies). However, the most significant manoeuvres may still be those of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and his effort to set key bodies like the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council alongside the challenge to Ahmadinejad and, at least implicitly, to the Supreme Leader. The New York Times, which has benefited from the news blackout as it offers analysis rather than spot coverage, has a useful article this morning on the important role of clerics in developments.

Iran: EA's Chris Emery in The Guardian - "Khamenei's Supreme Dilemma"

The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to “A Sea of Black”

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AMANEIChris Emery, who has been at the cutting edge of analysis with his pieces for Enduring America, is in The Guardian today with an analysis of the latest political manoeuvring in the Iranian crisis:

Khamenei's Supreme Dilemma

As the Islamic Republic continues to enter uncharted waters, the political authorities seem to have no idea how to react to an unprecedented challenge to its legitimacy. The response so far has combined political arrests, police brutality and attempts to silence objective journalism with futile appeals for calm and purely cosmetic concessions. All have thus far failed to halt or even dilute a broad opposition movement unified around Mir Hossein Mousavi.

Now, with the challenge of the opposition movement proving far greater than expected, those in power are playing for time. Having initially endorsed the President, the Supreme Leader on Monday asked the Guardian Council to consider a review of the ballot within 10 days. Twenty-four hours later, after meeting representatives from opposition candidates, the council agreed to do so.

However, the Guardian Council's offer to recount some contested ballots has now comprehensively failed in its attempt to establish some political space for the authorities. Although this apparent U-turn was initially seen as a significant concession, the Council's refusal to contemplate changing the result demonstrated that this was simply a delaying tactic. It had hoped for a de-escalation of tensions on the streets as the public waited for the results of the recount on Friday.

The Mousavi campaign immediately recognised that, at best, any revised results would simply give the president a slightly lower winning margin. Mousavi and his supporters thus dismissed a partial recount out of hand and continue to press for the full annulment of last Friday's election. There currently appears no chance of this happening. Writing off the first election as irredeemably corrupt and mismanaged is simply not an option for the Supreme Leader, who has already endorsed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory. An annulment of the election would also bring Ahmadinejad's supporters on the streets in huge numbers and potentially see as much, or even more, disruption and violence on the streets.

Rather than easing tensions, the Guardian Council's superficial efforts towards conciliation have backfired. Immediately following the announcement of a partial recount, hundreds of thousands of Mousavi supporters defied a ban and marched silently through the streets. If anything, the fact that such an arch conservative institution had been forced to reconsider, even for tactical reasons, persuaded the masses that their demonstrations were having a positive effect.

There are currently two battles occurring in Iran. The first is taking place on the streets of Iran's major cities between rival supporters of Mousavi and Ahmadinejad. The second is occurring behind the scenes among the heavyweights of Iran's political establishment. These manoeuvrings see figures such as Hashemi Rafsanjani, a bitter rival of Ahmadinejad, rallying opposition to the president in the expediency council and among senior clerics in Qom. These power plays add an extra dimension to the current crisis that extends even as far as the future potential succession of the supreme leader.

The Supreme Leader is expected to lead Friday prayers in Tehran, where he will doubtless restate his calls for restraint. Hundreds of thousands of supporters on both sides will attend to see if Ayatollah Khamenei offers any more openings or whether he is drawing a line under the election. It appears that the Supreme Leader faces a stark decision of either further concessions or repression. In truth, neither option has much appeal to him. Khamenei could, as is his sole constitutional authority, declare martial law. To do so, however, would only demonstrate his personal, and the Islamic Republic's structural, failure.

Mousavi also faces a dilemma. He is well aware that the supreme leader perceives the mood on the streets as a potential threat to the very notion of an Islamic Republic. Mousavi, a former prime minister and acolyte of Ayatollah Khomeini, is no revolutionary. He will thus come under intense pressure from the supreme leader's office to reign in some of his supporters for the good of the republic. This is already the reason why Mousavi has asked for silent demonstrations and urged supporters to shout purely Islamic slogans. Khamenei has, however, so boxed himself in following his early endorsement of Ahmadinejad, that he has little to offer Mousavi which could appease him or his followers.

It is unlikely that public pressure, combined with the efforts of a politically powerful clique, will remove Ahmadinejad from power. This crisis is, however, as much a clash of competing cultures in Iran as it is about political transparency. It's not just about young and more affluent North Tehranis facing off against the pious anti-American poor. Tensions in education, world outlook, social ethics, consumerism and even fashion have been exposed by an ostensibly political crisis. Regardless of how events unfold in the coming weeks, the authorities will have to construct a longer-term response to these competing lifestyles and aspirations.

Iran: What's Happening? Sifting Information from Rumours on Twitter

NEW The Latest from Iran (19 June): The Known and the Unknown

The Latest from Iran (18 June): From Green to “A Sea of Black”
LATEST Video: The Protests in and Beyond Tehran

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IRAN FLAGOn "Anonymous Iran", Josh Shahryar has posted a summary of 16 points about the Iranian crisis. This is based on a thorough examination of stories circulated via Twitter --- "no news media outlets have been used in the compilation".

We've cross-checked Mr Shahryar's summary against our information --- from Iranian and international news outlets, the best of the websites covering the crisis, and contacts. We also have tried to assess the importance of the points: for example, without downplaying the other indicators, we think #16 on the political manoeuvres is the most significant, The notations in italics are our current assessment:

1. During the last protest in Tehran, several policemen have been spotted by protesters who were wearing green bands which is the color of the revolution. The policemen have told them candidly that they support them. [Unverified, although there is video footage of demonstrators mingling peacefully with police]

2. During the protests, on several occasions, Baseejis who have attacked peaceful protesters have been arrested on the spot by the police. This seems to have occured in several spots, yet it hasn't been a crackdown of sorts. A few cases only! [Unverified]

3. Several Baseeji militiamen have been spotted laying down their arms and going home after being asked to interfere with the protesters. [Unverified]

4. By far the biggest threat people are facing right now are plainclothesmen. They seem to be everywhere and are targetting people who are not in groups. These men have been mostly linked with Ansar e Hezbollah. [N.B.: This is a different organisation from the Lebanese Hezbollah.] They are responsible for beating people up, arresting people, threatening protesters, arresting reformists from their homes and such. [Verified from numerous sources]

5. So far, it has been confirmed that 15 people in Tehran and 32 people around the country have been killed. Hundreds more have been injured and in excess of 800 people have been detained. Among these there are dozens of reformists. Most of these arrests have been made by the notorious plainclothesmen mentioned above. [The casualty figures, especially outside Tehran, are hard to verify. The number of arrests can only be an estimate, although "hundreds" is indicated from numerous sources.]

6. During yesterday's protests, mullahs have been spotted joining rallies within Tehran and in several other cities. No one could confirm what the status of these Mullahs was or is within the clerical society, but their numbers have been very visible this time. [Unverified, but a number of clerics have been openly critical of President Ahmadinejad and the electoral process. See today's New York Times for an interesting analysis.]

7. Protests have occured not just in Tehran yesterday, but in Ahvaz, Mashhad, Kermanshah, Qazvin, Shiraz, Tabriz and EVEN Qom. [Largely verified, although we are checking the Qom claim.]

8. Pro-Ahmadinejad protesters' numbers have been greatly exaggerated by the state media in comparison to Mousavi's supporters' numbers. In reality, Pro-Ahmadinejad protesters were only a pocket full of people. Most of these people have been identified by other protesters as either people who work at government offices or people who were brought from the countryside. [Unverified and should be treated with caution. Television images showed more than a "pocketful" of people and the claim that their opinions are not legimitate should be considered with the same scepticism as the claim that opposition demonstrators are not legitimate in their protest.]

9. After downplaying the protests for days, the state-run media has finally started to announce news of the events a little more accurately. [Verified, although the state media is now trying to ignore the protests. See today's updates.]

10. Text Messaging is still down in Iran and internet is extremely slow. People are unable to get sattelite channels on their televisions. At the same time, police and plainclothesmen are going door to door and taking away people's satellite dish antennas. [Largely verified. We have only anecdotal evidence of the taking away of antennas.]

11. Mohsen Rezayee, one of the candidates, is going to declare his support for a reelection tomorrow. The fourth candidate, Mahdi Karoubi openly joined yesterday's rally. [Verified.]

12. A group of prominent officials within the Ministry of Interior have written a letter to the Guardian Council declaring that they have witnessed widespread irregularities within the voting and counting processes during the election. They have asked this matter to be investigated fully. [Unverified.]

13. As of today, not a single report of the military's intervention into the peaceful protests has been established. Not a single one. [Verified. Apart from a brief reports of tanks on the streets on Monday night, there has been no evidence of Iranian military challenging the demonstrations.]

14. Khatami and Mousavi have both asked the Ministry of Justice to investigate the involvement of the plainclothesmen in the violence that has been sparked during the protests. [Verified.]

15. Several eye-witnesses have seen non-Iranian Arabs waving Hamas/Hezbollah flags around the protests. These reports have been fully confirmed and are NOT a rumor spread by Israel. [Unverified and should be treated with caution. The accusation of "foreign" support is being used by both sides in the political manoeuvring.]

16. Finally, the big news. It seems that the Green Revolution has garnered the support of Hashemi Rafsanjani, Nateq Noori, Tabatabayee and other prominent clerics and politicians. The Rohaniyone Mubarez organization that which has in its ranks pretty much most of the clerics except for the ones in power and includes Mr. Rafsanjani and Mr. Noori has declared their support for the annullment of the election and holding of new elections. Ayatollah Montazeri has yet to declare clear support. [An important claim which is not untrue but is exaggerated at this point. Rafsanjani is clearly trying to mobilise opposition to President Ahmadinejad and the election outcome. We know that he was in Qom on Saturday, asking clerics to come out against the President, but we have no indication that he was successful with "most" of them. This is a key story which should be watched carefully in forthcoming days.]

[Enduring America is continuing to follow the situation in Iran very closely- for the latest, please subscribe to our updates.]