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Friday
Jun252010

Gaza Latest (25 June): Iranian Flotilla "Cancelled"; US Says Aid Ships "Irresponsible"; Europe Calls for End to Blockade

One of the organizers of an Iranian aid flotilla said Thursday that the event has been cancelled due to "Israeli threats". Nevertheless, Israel's Army Radio reported that a separate Iranian ship, carrying 60 Iranian activists, was being prepared to sail to Gaza via the Caspian Sea, which seems a rather unusual route.

The U.S. State Department issued a statement calling the aid flotillas to Gaza irresponsible:
Mechanisms exist for the transfer of humanitarian assistance to Gaza by member states and groups that want to do so. Direct delivery by sea is neither appropriate nor responsible, and certainly not effective, under the circumstances.

The Council of Europe's parliamentarians have called on Israel to end its siege of the Gaza Strip, describing Israel's recent ease of blockade as a "first step". A large majority in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) said that goods must be delivered to Gaza both by sea and land, "without prejudice to [Israel's] security", so that Palestinians can enjoy "normal living conditions".

The parliamentarians also criticized the Israeli raid of Freedom Flotilla last month as a breach of international law, calling it "manifestly disproportionate".

The proceedings of the Terkel committee examining the IDF’s raid on the Gaza flotilla will be made open to the public, The Jerusalem Post announced.
Friday
Jun252010

The Latest from Iran (25 June): The Important Issues

1650 GMT: Imprisonment and Abuse. RAHANA publishes the story, which we have been following for 24 hours, on an attack on Zoya Samadi, the daughter-in-law of imprisoned labour activist Mansour Osanloo.

Intelligence Ministry agents reportedly accosted Samadi in public view, pulling off her headscarf, beating her, and dragging her by the hair. Handcuffed and blindfolded, she was taken to an undisclosed location for four hours and questioned for four hours, allegedly being told, "You must guarantee that if Osanloo is released from prison, he will never remain in Iran and that he will cease all activities.”

According to Osanloo's wife, Samadi was then left under a Tehran bridge. Her assailants warned, "You are not to inform anyone about this incident, nor are you allowed to file any form of complaint.”

NEW The Real Race for Iran: Human Rights v. Tehran’s Defenders (Shahryar)
Iran Special: Mousavi, Karroubi, and the Strategy of “We Are Still Standing (for the Revolution)”
The Latest from Iran (24 June): Persistence


1535 GMT: The Divergent Tale of Two Political Prisoners, Two British Universities. Ian Black in The Guardian has an interesting profile of the cases of Mohammad Jalaeipour, an Oxford University Ph.D. candidate re-arrested on 14 June, and Ehsan Abdoh-Tabrizi, a Ph.D. student at Durham University who was imprisoned in January and has spent more than 50 days in solitary confinement. Black compares the very different approaches taken by Oxford and Durham officials to publicity over the treatment of the political prisoners.

1525 GMT: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Philosopher of Our Time. No, if you like your philosophy simple and to the point, then it might be best to leave behind today's Friday Prayer with global bodies that do not really exist and an Iranian unity that must be present even if it is not obvious. Instead, let's get our 21st-century Renaissance from the President via the Iranian Labor News Agency:
A long and black chapter in the history of humanity is coming to a close and an age of enlightenment is about to start. The arrogant powers have stood against the divine force throughout history and today the arrogant regime in the United States is the biggest obstacle against the cause of the prophets.


1500 GMT: Your Friday Prayer Summary. Hojatoleslam Kazem Seddiqi --- our favourite "women's breasts = earthquakes" cleric --- took the podium today.

No references to dangerous females this morning, however, as far as we know. Instead, Seddiqi was preoccupied with the recent UN sanctions against Iran, or rather, he was interested in the pronouncements of an invisible organisation: "This approach showed that the United Nations does not exist and that the Security Council is an 'anti-security' council."

If that's a bit too metaphysical to grasp --- ""It appears that you have yet to know the Iranian nation" --- Seddiqi was ready to use the international situation to whip up his own realities out of the Tehran air: "[The] Iranian nation will not only show resilience in the face of such sanctions but will also develop more resistance and solidarity."

0830 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Photojournalist Majid Saeedi, arrested last June, has been sentenced to three years in prison.

Shiva Nazar Ahari, human rights activist and member of the Committee of Human Rights Reporters detained since June 2009, has written a letter to her father: "You taught me not to break."

The families of detainees held in Gohardasht Prison, have written to Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabi: "Don't allow more injustices against our beloved."

The Iranian Teachers Trade Association has issued a statement protesting the continued detention of its leading members.

0825 GMT: The Attacks on the Clergy. The five daughter of the late Grand Ayatollah Montazeri have issued a statement challenging the recent assault on the Montazeri house by pro-regime activists.

0755 GMT: We begin today with an analysis from Josh Shahryar, "The Real Race for Iran: Human Rights v. Tehran's Defenders".

"Western" headlines are likely to be on last night's US Congress vote for stricter sanctions --- the Senate by 99-0, the House of Representatives by 408-8 --- aimed especially at Iran's financial and energy sectors. Meanwhile....

Khamenei Tries to Hold It Together

Writing for Rooz, Mohammad Reza Yazdanpanah takes a look at this week's statements by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and sees a Supreme Leader struggling to keep his flock together.

The website also sees a continuing challenge to the legitimacy of Khamenei's leadership in a year of statements by clerical and opposition figures.

The Battle Within

The Vice Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, has given a speech warning of the danger to the establishment from "radicals" --- and he doesn't mean "radicals" of the Green Movement.

Mostafa Pourmohammadi, former Minister of the Interior, is worried about the threat to Iran from "lawlessness" --- but whose lawlessness does he mean?

Defending Political Parties

It looks like there is a twist in the tale of the attempt to ban Iran's reformist political parties such as the Islamic Iran Participation Front and the Mohajedin of Islamic Revolution.

Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi warns against lawlessness as one of the country's biggest dangers.

The conservative Morteza Nabavi has noted that President Ahmadinejad himself came to power through a political party, and key judiciary official Mohammad Javad Larijani has argued that party activities should be developed beyond elections, as they guarantee the future of the Islamic Republic.

Parliament (and  a Cleric) v. President

Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani has denounced this week's demonstrations by Basij and students in front of Parliament, challenging the Majlis attempt to defy President Ahmadinejad and assert its control of Islamic Azad University.

Meanwhile, we have gotten information of how heated the debate was inside the Parliament, with heated exchanges and heckling, insults, and even reports of a "fist fight".
Friday
Jun252010

Middle East Inside Line: Coalition Changes in Israel?; Netanyahu's War for Legitimacy; Israel Warns Lebanon

Lieberman-Netanyahu War?: Tension is increasing between Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The latter needs the opposition, "centrist" party Kadima in the coalition, butKadima's leader Tzipi Livni wants the Foreign Ministry.

Lieberman doesn't seem to be too receptive. On Tuesday, he told reporters that Kadima could join the coalition as long as Kadima members agreed to support a land and population swap as a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He continued:
This coalition will not change. We are willing to consider a shift in the coalition only if the entire coalition, including Kadima, supports the concept of a populated land swap rather than the concept of land for peace.

Israel’s Political/Military Alternative to Turkey: Romania?
Gaza Latest: Is Egypt Going to Make a Stand Against Israel? (Yenidunya)


Lieberman has a second condition as well: Kadima will agree to the continuation of construction when the freeze in the West Bank ends in September.

What about Netanyahu? The pressure on his shoulders is increasing day by day.

Here is the latest sign: leaders of Netanyahu's coalition partner Labor have said that, unless Kadima joins the government soon, they may not continue in government. That in turn could start a war between Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and Netanyahu's Likud, ending up with an early election.

On Thursday, Ha'aretz headlined, "Striking Shift: Complete Lift of Gaza Blockade". According to Israel's Channel Two television, Lieberman proposed to his Italian counterpart, Franco Frattini, that Frattini head a delegation of European diplomats to the Gaza Strip. Although this is a change of policy but a change of tactics, Lieberman might be willing to extend his hand to Netanyahu at this first stage with a "concession".

Netanyahu's War for Israel's "Attacked" Legitimacy: Haaretz learned late Tuesday that Arab and Muslim members of the United Nations, led by Malaysia, are working toward assembling an emergency UN session to discuss Israel's last month raid of a Gaza-bound flotilla.

This was enough for Netanyahu. On Wednesday, during a Knesset discussion on Israel's collapsing international status,  Netanyahu warned  that West Jerusalem's legitimacy is being attacked. He said:
They want to strip us of the natural right to defend ourselves. When we defend ourselves against rocket attack, we are accused of war crimes. We cannot board sea vessels when our soldiers are being attacked and fired upon, because that is a war crime.

They are essentially saying that the Jewish nation does not have the right to defend itself against the most brutal attacks and it doesn't have the right to prevent additional weapons from entering territories from which it is attacked.

Then he targeted the "source of trouble":
The Palestinian side promoted the Goldstone report, organized boycotts, and tried to prevent our entrance into the OECD. The Palestinian Authority has no intentions of engaging in direct talks with us.

I call on [PA President Mahmoud] Abbas, yet again, to enter direct talks with us, because there is no other way to solve the conflict between us without direct dialogue. How could we possibly live side by side if they can't even enter the same room as us?

Lastly, Netanyahu called on activists to go to Iran, not to Gaza:
I call on all human rights activists in the world - -- go to Tehran. That's where there is a human rights violation.

Israel Warns Lebanon: Respondingto Lebanon parliament speaker Nabih Berri's  warning to his Government to start exploring offshore natural gas reserves, claiming that otherwise Israel would claim the resources, Israel's Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau told Bloomberg that Israel would "not hesitate to use force and strength to protect not only the rule of law but the international maritime law".,

Lebanon's former Prime Minister and current member of parliament, Fouad Siniora, also urged the Lebanese government to take the issue of offshore gas reserves in the country's territorial waters seriously.
Friday
Jun252010

The Real Race for Iran: Human Rights v. Tehran's Defenders (Shahryar)

Since Iran was thrust into internal turmoil by last year’s election, the world has been moved by events that unfolded during the protests of the Green Movement. As we watched the violence of the agents of the Iranian government against peaceful demonstrators, most of us thought that it would be impossible to defend the regime’s position amidst the bloodshed we witnessed on our TV screens.

Not so. The Iranian Government, despite all the detentions, abuses, and unlawful killings since June 2009, still has support overseas in the guise of purportedly unbiased political analysts, none more vocal than that of the authors of Race for Iran, one a former CIA and National Security Council official, the other a former diplomat in the State Department.

Their solution to the human rights abuse issue? Pretend it is not relevant. Arrests, torture, rape, and the murder of protesters are set aside.

The testament to how far they can go in defending an indefensible position? Consider the lengthy response of RFI's authors to “Misreading Tehran”, a series of seven articles published on the Foreign Policy website.

In this article, the duo close their eyes to all other internal matter to declare that the 2009 Presidential election is legitimate, simply because the opposition has allegedly not provided any evidence to back up claims of fraud. Thus, the vote for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad must be free and fair.

If we were to accept this argument, then every election under Suharto in Indonesia was free and fair. Every election held in Islam Karimov’s Uzbekistan is free, as is every vote held in Cuba under Fidel Castro. Robert Mugabe is the rightful ruler of Zimbabwe. If stolen or "created" ballots cannot be exhibited, the result is not only legal but legitimate.

Under this "legitimate" Iranian Government, freedom of speech is severely curtailed. Newspapers are regularly banned; journalists regularly imprisoned. Candidates for elections are screened by the establishment, and only those passing the Guardian Council's ideological tests are allowed to run. There are hundreds –-- perhaps thousands –-- of political prisoners suffering in Iran’s jails. Under such harsh conditions, it is a distortion --- a dishonourable distortion --- to say that elections in Iran can be free, fair and honest.

If that were not enough, high-ranking clerics –-- from within Iran’s own establishment –-- came forward and decried the elections as fraudulent. Grand Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani was quoted, "Every healthy mind casts doubt on the way the election was held.” Ayatollah Jalaleddin Taheri called the re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad "illegitimate" and "tyrannical". Perhaps the most revered cleric after Khamenei, Grand Ayatollah Lotfullah Safi Golpayegani called the results “a grand lie”. Their voices were silenced by the media blackout, with Western journalists unaware of their clout within Iran’s government and society.

But to RFI's authors, it is beyond consideration that Iran's leadership is a brutal regime hell-bent on keeping itself in power. They dismiss that people from within Iran's establishment question the legitimacy of the election. To them, an inquiry can only be considered if the Green Movement takes up arms, fights the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, confiscates all the ballot boxes from the election through force of arms and then counts them somewhere in Europe in front of international media. Only then, will ‘healthy” minds accept fraud.

Yet there is a somewhat tortured twist in RFI's line, illustrated in the article in Foreign Policy. Having declared --- following the sudden execution of five Iranians on 9 May --- that the consideration of human rights was beyond their agenda, the authors resurrect two months-old "studies" of the 2009 election to establish that the political and civil rights of Iranians were respected and defended.

Doing so, they hold up a cracked mirror with RFI's reflection of post-election Iran: one of the purported reports on the election is by little-known "analysts" who have also suggested that Neda Agha Soltan, killed during the protests of 20 June 2009, was slain by agents of "the West":
It is inconceivable that an Islamic regime which understands the power of martyrdom in its own culture would sanction the cold-blooded murder of an innocent and ordinary young woman on the streets of Tehran.
However it is every bit conceivable that those who thought the opposition movement needed a symbol and icon of resistance – recipients and supporters no doubt of a $400m CIA-backed destabilization program for Iran - would have arranged this horrible murder and try and pin it on the Iranian authorities.)

If RFI's authors claim that rights have no place in their forum, why resurrect a long-surpassed and rather creaky case for a proper vote on 12 June 2009?

In part, it is a necessary tactic to support the authors' main objective, which is to promote US-Iran discussions on important regional and global issues. Putting forth that case requires the notion that President Ahmadinejad can be engaged because he has a legitimate position.

More importantly, though, the tactic is a deflection.  The Green Movement and civil rights organisations inside Iran long ago moved beyond contesting the elections to the campaign for a political, social, economic, and religious system that upholds rather than abuses its citizens' rights. Mir Hossein Mousavi has released several statements in recent months emphasizing that the Green Movement needs to firm up its ties with the Iranian populace to spread the message of change and to ensure that the Islamic Republic fulfills the rights set out in its Constitution.

Iran's Government is unable to address these issues, but they are also unable to prevent their consideration. It has persisted in arresting people who protest brutality and human rights abuses, but the challenge continues. It has tried to penetrate the ranks of the Green Movement, but it cannot prevent activists from interacting with disgruntled Iranians who have been affected. It has pursued the alternative of proclaiming Iran's exalted international position, but that distraction cannot be sustained when headlines are re-claimed by the heckling of Ayatollah Khomeini's grandson and the attacks on Iran's most esteemed clerics.

So the solution is sought by Tehran's defenders: while announcing that rights do not matter, revive the notion of the "legitimate" rule --- with the implication that legitimacy confers the authority to pursue any and all acts in the name of the Iranian state --- established by the 2009 election.

The problem for this defence is that rights will not go away. Those who bravely persist in the face of repression are emphasising human rights and democracy more than ever. Ten days ago, Iranians who marched in Tehran were not heard chanting, "Where is My Vote?"; amidst the calls of God is Great, they were demanding that their rights --- as Iranians and as human beings --- be affirmed by their Government and by their Supreme Leader.

An objective analysis worthy of the label would question why the Iranian government fills the countries streets with security forces if it is stable and loved by its people. It would investigate why foreign media is effectively banned and why dozens of Iran's journalists are in jail, barred from working, or under threat of punishment if they dare to write. It would at least raise a quizzical eyebrow at the scores who are on death row and the hundreds more behind bars or on heavy bail simply because they voiced their opposition to the regime.

But that analysis would be tantamount to a questioning of legitimacy. And there the authors of RFI meet their self-imposed limit. They have shackled themselves even more effectively than the Government which they defend has shackled its people.

If there is a Race for Iran, those who defend the regime --- in the name of the irrelevancy of human rights --- can only stand still, stamping their feet loudly that there is no alternative. And in that race, it is the alternative which --- while hobbled by intimidation, restricted by suppression, hindered by punishment --- continues to move forward towards its goals.
Friday
Jun252010

Afghanistan Analysis: McChrystal, Counter-Insurgency, and Blaming the Ambassador (Mull)

EA correspondent Josh Mull is the Afghanistan Blogging Fellow for The Seminal and Brave New Foundation. He also writes for Rethink Afghanistan:

Supporter's of General Stanley McChrystal's counterinsurgency policy are heart-broken over his firing.  Very few COINdinistas took the position that McChrystal should be permitted to undermine civilian control of policy, as he did so plainly in the Rolling Stone piece; however, they put out the line, "He's our only hope", with warnings about ruining the war effort.

They also want revenge.

The target of this vengeance is quite clear: Karl Eikenberry, US Ambassador to Afghanistan. Take a look at these snippets from across the blogosphere:

Josh Shahryar:
When McChrystal finally got troops, he had to figure out a way around Eikenberry’s meddling into what was supposed to be his operation.

Bouhammer:
So now I am waiting for that POS [piece of s***] Eikenberry to be fired along with that ineffective Holbrooke. The relationship between the military and civilian leadership in Afghanistan is a two-way street. If the Ambassador and Special Envoy don’t get along with [Afghan President] Karzai and cannot influence him or even get a meeting with him, then they need to be FIRED asap and some people need to be put into place that can be effective at their job and get along with the military leadership.

Anonymous at Danger Room:
In fact, one e-mails: “It would be a travesty if we fired McChrystal and kept Eikenberry.”

Not only is McChrystal the “only one with any sort of relationship with [Afghan president Hamid] Karzai,” says this civilian advisor to the McChrystal-led International Security Assistance Force. Eikenberry “has no plan, didn’t get COIN [counterinsurgency] when he was the commander and still doesn’t.” Plus, the advisor adds: “The Embassy hates Eik. That’s not necessarily an indictment (I’m no fan of the Embassy). But it contributes to the dysfunction and it means that half the Embassy is focused on keeping Eik in line.”

Streetwise Professor:
Eikenberry was a backstabber from day one.

See the narrative building? McChrystal was doing a good job (they've leaked red meat to give pro-McChrystal progressives some lefty cover), it was that "POS Eikenberry" and his "meddling" that are really at fault. He's a backstabber and dysfunctional. McChrystal's violation of the relationship between civilian government and the military is no longer at issue; it's practically ignored.

McChrystal and Eikenberry have been feuding for some time now, so it's no surprise he draws the most wrath from the general's dismissal. But if we actually look closer at the tension between Eikenberry and McChrystal, we see that the Eikenberry-haters are way off base. Their attacks are at best childish displays of sour grapes; at worst, they are a fundamental misunderstanding of their own strategy.

Ambassador Eikenberry is not at fault here. In fact, Eikenberry was right all along.

What is this feud between McChrystal and Eikenberry about? It's usually described very ambiguously, a disagreement over "implementation" of the strategy or something like that. But, in fact, it is a few specific actions which amount to the battle between general and ambassador over conduct of the war.

From the Washington Post:
At times their differences over strategy have been public, particularly after two of Eikenberry's cables to Washington last year were leaked to the news media. The cables warned that McChrystal's request for new troops might be counterproductive as Karzai was "not an adequate strategic partner." McChrystal's staff members were particularly upset that they weren't made aware of Eikenberry's position before he sent the cables to Washington, they said in interviews.

Eikenberry has resisted some of McChrystal's wartime experiments. The ambassador refused to release funds to expand a military effort to turn villagers into armed guards. He opposed one Army brigade's plan to form an anti-Taliban alliance with a Pashtun tribe and funnel it development money. He criticized the military's proposal to buy generators and diesel fuel for the energy-starved city of Kandahar and supported a longer-term hydroelectric dam project.

In each of these cases, including the disagreement over the energy situation in Kandahar, it's clear that Eikenberry has had a better understanding of COIN strategy, the blending of civilian nation building with military combat. Eikenberry consistently prioritized governance, rule of law, and other long-term objectives over McChrystal's short-term concerns about winning battles and killing the enemy.

Stabilizing Afghanistan, not winning battles, is what counterinsurgency is supposedly all about. And yet Eikenberry is made out to be the bad guy.

Counterinsurgency requires the dual (dueling?) roles of military leader and diplomatic leader. As COINdinistas like to say, there has to be "unity of effort." Both sides have to work together. But now what we hear from them is that the McChrystal should have had free rein to do whatever he wanted while anything Eikenberry did was "meddling", some sort of illegitimate interference with the all-important war effort. Do the sellers of COIN even understand their own strategy? It's not clear that they do.

Why would Eikenberry dare question our military leaders? Why would he see Karzai as "not an adequate strategic partner?" Possibly because Karzai is corrupt and sits atop an illegitimate government that functions only as an organized criminal enterprise?

Why would Eikenberry oppose arming and bribing local militias? Could it be because support from the military legitimizes these groups, even though they're outlaws that pillage Afghans just the same, if not worse, than the Taliban does, in addition to undermining the central government in Kabul?

Boy, that Eikenberry sure is a jerk for pointing all this stuff out.

When we add up all the leaked cables, the wartime experiments, the history of their involvement in the war, etc, we see the full picture of Eikenberry's trespasses against McChrystal.

The High Crimes and Treason of Ambassador Karl Eikenberry:

  • Failing to decisively win the war in Afghanistan when all attention and resources were focused on Iraq

  • Leaking important information about the war to the press

  • Resisting "short-sighted" military domination of reconstruction/nation building efforts

  • Opposing the escalation of 30,000 more US troops

  • Criticizing the corruption and illegitimacy of Hamid Karzai

  • Opposing a US strategic security guarantee with Karzai's illegitimate administration

  • Opposing Karzai's CIA-narco-lord brother having a role in the government

  • Opposing formation of militias which undermine the government

  • Opposing bribes of development money which corrupt and distort rule of law, nation building, etc

  • Opposing short-term energy solutions which are too expensive and cripple an already broken central government


Is it clear why everyone hates Eikenberry so much? No? I don't understand it either.

Don't take any of this the wrong way. Eikenberry is not a saint, a war hero, or even particularly effective in his conflicts with McChrystal. The point here is that Eikenberry was right. He was right to be transparent about strategic deliberations. He was right to oppose the military's faulty tactics. He was right to oppose the escalation of more troops. He was right about all of these arguments with McChrystal, and with the Obama administration itself.

Obviously there is plenty of room left to criticize Eikenberry and the State Department as a whole. Their continued association with criminal organisations like Blackwater all but negates any positive outcomes they might reach, and certainly erases any honor or integrity the institution might have. Corruption is a thriving malignancy throughout our development operations, from the contractors at the bottom to the sleazy crooks at the top.

Then, of course, there's the State Dept's participation in the first place in COIN, which is a deviant, militarist perversion of traditionally civilian-controlled policies like foreign aid, development, and nation building.

General McChrystal's downfall was his own making. Eikenberry should not be thrown in with that, least of all as part of some pathetic blame game by McChrystal supporters. What's at stake here is the war in Afghanistan, and that is clearly hopeless and unwinnable. Firing McChrystal didn't change the fact that the US has absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by continuing its war in Afghanistan, and neither will the revenge-firing of Ambassador Eikenberry. To get to the root of any of these problems, to really see solutions for countering terrorism and developing a stable Afghanistan, America's longest war has to end.
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