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Entries in Iran Elections 2009 (65)

Thursday
Oct292009

Iran: The Mousavi-Karroubi Meeting 

The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?

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MOUSAVI KARROUBIWe noted in our updates yesterday the emerging news of a recent meeting between Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi. Khordaad 88 has now provided an English translation of the account from the Mousavi-linked newspaper Kalemeh:

At the start of the meeting, Mehdi Karroubi recalled the events in the exhibition for Journalism [Tehran Media Fair]. He expressed his disappointment about some of the wrong and undeserved reaction against him and Alireza Beheshti [a close advisor to Mousavi, and son of the martyr Ayatollah Beheshti] committed on behalf of an organized minority. He added: “It saddens me to see how bans on newspapers have ‘blessed’ the exhibition. An exhibition for journalism that should be the place for thought and dialogue has turned into a lifeless environment. In addition, some act so boorishly and with such a behavior who knows where they are leading the country to.”

On the same subject, Mir Hossein Mousavi pointed to the clips that he has seen from the exhibition and said, “Despite the bans on journalism, I saw a great crowd of enthusiasts attending the exhibition who were supporting you and the Green movement. Apparently, this annoys the minority to an extent that has made them commit such reactions.”

Mehdi Karroubi alluded to the era when Mousavi was the Prime Minister, “You are well aware of the things I have done. Because of the responsibilities I have had in the Outreach Committee (Komitte Emdad), the Martyrs Foundation (Bonyad Shahid) and the Parliament, I have always been and will remain in contact with people. I can see that people are at a very devastating condition. Poverty, corruption, and fraud have increased. These are consequences of the wrong and inappropriate organization and planning on part of the executive and administrative branches.

Mehdi Karroubi continued by comparing past and present and said, “Unfortunately, financial fraud of some of our officials is one of the main drivers of corruption within the country. I remember the days when government was so clean a bureaucrat would not have the money to pay for his family expenditures in a hospital. Today it’s different. My concern is that the new generation sees this and suspects that it has been like this ever since the early days of the revolution. This generation must know that such widespread economic corruption is a very new phenomenon.”

Based on this concern, Mahdi Karoubi added, “I grow even more sensitive when I hear the claims that this government has revived the discourse of the revolution and of the Imam Khomeini. This is a disgrace to the way of the revolution and the Imam. People, and especially the new generation must understand that we, the siblings of Imam, are against the conditions that govern the country today.”

Mahdi Karoubi also added, “Exaggerations that are common these days about some people and places could cause doubts in religious beliefs of some people, especially members of the newer generation. For instance, I have heard that they talk of the ‘Jamkaran mosque’ as though it is as holy as Masjid-Al-Haram mosque (in Mecca, Saudi Arabia) and Masjid-Al-Aghsa mosque (in Jerusalem, occupied Palestine). Such acts would only help ruin the trust of people even in their own beliefs. I have no idea what motivates some of these ‘honorable’ gentlemen to displace all the values and strip people of their beliefs in anything from their religion to their national history."

Alluding to the current problems in running the country, Mir Hossein Mousavi said, “Our painful concerns are mutual. I too am aware of the problems you alluded to, as well as many other issues. We are in agreement. For instance the outcomes of talks on the nuclear issue in Geneva are shocking. If we do commit to the promises they have given in Geneva we would be undermining the efforts of thousands of the scientists across the country, if we don’t we would open up the door for collective action against us in the form of sanctions. This outcome is the result of an adventurous foreign policy that has no regard for rules and national interests. The ‘interesting’ point here is that while they openly, and repeatedly pay homage to the Americans, they accuse the children of the revolution and experienced public servants of relations and tendencies toward the west and the east. People should be told of affairs so that they would know what is going on in the executive management of the country. When I was the prime minister I used to emphasize that military forces must not involve themselves in the financial affairs of the nation.”

Mir Hossein Mousavi, referring to the mismanagement in the country and to the incidents in the internal and foreign affairs, added: “I have two suspicions. Either some of the gentlemen are on a mission to ruin the country and obliterate the establishment or they are very short-sighted and only think of today. They would only do that which takes them from today to tomorrow. I think the latter is closer to reality. These men only think of today. What happens in the future as a result of their actions is of no importance to them. Otherwise, no other reasoning could explain and defend the risks of this magnitude in the internal and foreign affairs."

Mousavi also pointed out to the trials and detention that take place and the confessions that are broadcast and said, “Some think that such acts can change the things back to the way they were. But they are dreaming the impossible. They do not understand that no threats, detentions, trials, and even forced confessions can change today’s society to that of a year ago.”

Mousavi added, “Freedom of the political prisoners is a national demand. Their freedom can help resolve our situation.”

At the conclusion of this meeting Mahdi Karoubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi discussed ways to improve on the communication between themselves and with people despite closure of most  communication channels and information bridges.
Thursday
Oct292009

Latest Iran Video: The Announcements for the 13 Aban Marches

Iran: The Supreme Leader’s Threat — Strength or Weakness?
Iran: Towards 13 Aban — The University Protests
The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?

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We post these without further knowledge of how widely they have been disseminated and seen, especially inside Iran. However, this is the first time to our knowledge that there have been video "previews" of mass demonstrations --- this did not occur either for the 18 Tir demonstration in early July, the "40th Day" marches of 30 July, or the Qods Day protest.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsSCzP9Trd8[/youtube] [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFi-m4sKIc0[/youtube]
Thursday
Oct292009

Iran: The Supreme Leader's Threat --- Strength or Weakness?

Iran: Towards 13 Aban — The University Protests
The Latest from Iran (29 October): Opposition Momentum?
The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In

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KHAMENEI4I had just returned from a 2 1/2-hour roundtable on "Obama: The First 300 Days" when I read of Ayatollah Khamenei's Wednesday statement, via an activist on Twitter:

"Questioning the principles of the election is the biggest crime....The very next day after election without any proof or evidence some PPL called the election a lie....The enemy exploited this & those who from the beginning were not supporters of the state joined them....Within the first hours I sent a private message telling them what they R starting will be used by enemy....I told them what they are doing will be exploited by the enemy & this is exactly what has happened."

Getting the news via 140-character bursts heightens the impact, yet as I found the articles, inside and outside Iran, narrating the Supreme Leader's message, the initial reaction did not fade even as it evolved. Evolved from surprise to concern and then hope.

Surprise because I had not expected such a direct assault on the opposition leaders. This is the most pointed warning that the Supreme Leader has put out since his Friday Prayer address a week after the election. Since then, he has spoken more generally about the "foreign threat", letting others shake the fist against internal challengers.

And Khamenei's timing is intriguing. Why raise the stakes so publicly a week before the demonstrations on 13 Aban? Why not let the protest play out, expecting that, for all the efforts of the Green wave, the regime's restrictions on movement and communications would keep mass gatherings (or at least news of those gathering) below the numbers on 15 and 20 June? Of course, a threat may be intended to back down movement leaders keep people off the streets, but it can also have the opposite effect.

The concern is that the Supreme Leader's message is not rhetoric but the portent of action. It is more than the threat that "something will be done" if the protests materialise on 13 Aban; it is a signal that in the next six days moves will be taken to break up opposition.

Some Iranian activists are going even farther, claiming that the Supreme Leader is also intervening against the compromise of the National Unity Plan. The speculation is that Khamenei has decided there will be no reforms in the system; instead, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the architects of that Plan, has gotten the message and warned the opposition that the hammer blow is imminent.

Perhaps. But that is not my reading of the situation. Indeed, after the shock of those initial Twitter flashes had eased, I found concern giving way to an optimism. The Supreme Leader's message is not one coming out of the decision for a coordinating response to knock down the opposition before it can mobilise; it is one forced by the fragmentation and uncertainty within the regime.

First, a personal belief. It is no more than a belief because I cannot verify this assertion, but the more I look at Iranian decision-making over the last month, the more I suspect that the Supreme Leader has been quite ill. The twists and turns of the Iranian tactics in the nuclear talks; the muddled responses to the Sistan-Baluchestan bombings (remember, Khamenei did not issue a statement until days later, after the over-the-top reactions of the Revolutionary Guard and the more measured deliberation of the Ahmadinejad Cabinet); the lack of any evidence that there has been a critique of and response to the National Unity Plan, supposedly sent to the Supreme Leader weeks ago.

If (and I know it's a big if) that is true, this is not just a question of Ayatollah Khamenei reasserting the authority of the regime. It is an issue of reasserting his personal authority, showing strength not only to opponents but to allies.

Yet I return to the point that this was not just a general declaration of Khamenei's firm hand and mind, it was a specific challenge. And it is a challenge issued not after a period of relative calm in the political situation, but after days of resurgent opposition --- the Karroubi statements, the Media Fair episodes, the Mousavi-Karroubi meetings, the signals from senior clerics the university protests.

This, in short, was not a statement which had long been planned by the Supreme Leader to top off the political reality: I'm Back, All is Well. This was a speech which was quickly prepared because the regime is shaken.

Shaken does not mean crumbling. But I think the greater concern this morning is not with the Green movement but with Ayatollah Khamenei. Far from shutting down the movement on 13 Aban, the Supreme Leader may have just indicated that this movement is very, very alive.

It is six days to the demonstrations of 4 November.
Wednesday
Oct282009

Iran: Mehdi Karroubi Speaks with Journalists (27 October)

Latest Iran Video/Translation: Karroubi on Events in the Iran Media Fair
The Latest from Iran (28 October): No Lull

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KARROUBI3From Advar News, with translation by Facebook page linked to Mir Hossein Mousavi:

Karroubi: I am not afraid and I am ready to pay any price

Four days after the assault on Mehdi Karroubi by “reporter” thugs in the Media Fair, a group of journalists and reporters visited him at his home to comfort him, condemn the events happened at the Media Fair and ask him not to consider those horrible acts as what a real reporter would do.

When the journalists finished their remarks, everybody looked at Karroubi to listen to what he had to say. Karroubi, who that still had the wound mark that he received during the attack in Media Fair at his forehead, started by saying:
I have visited the Media Fair every year, but this year because of the widespread shutdown of the newspapers and the arrest of the journalists, I was more determined to visit the fair. I was not [personally] offended by the events that happened in the Fair, but rather I felt sorry because of some irrational and unconsidered behaviours. Actually it was good that I went to the fair so that the true nature of some people was unveiled.



Karroubi rejected the claims made by the Media Fair officials that they had warned Karroubi’s bodyguards of the intense atmosphere of the fair:
I attended the [media] fair completely unaware [of the situation] and the claims of some saying I was looking for trouble despite their warnings are completely bogus. But in any case I am amazed and I ask them, "Should I have asked for permission to go to the media fair?" I am amazed why the elders and more intelligent ones don’t prevent these kinds of inconsiderate actions.

We should not leave the field

Karroubi expressed hope that the rule of such ideas over the country does not last and advised the journalists present in the gathering to have patience and endurance and also to maintain balance. He added, “We should not leave the field, as the condition of our rivals is alarming and that’s why they react with these kinds of actions.”

Karroubi complained of the excessive pressure on the media over the past recent months. In response to some of the journalists who were asking him about starting publication of a newspaper, he said:
Every newspaper that is closed down [by the Government] renews my heartache, but with all that is happening, we are [always] trying to publish a new newspaper or publication. I don’t want to leave the field under any circumstances. I feel really sorry when I see some motivated journalists lose their jobs and their talents go to waste. It has been said that a stranger is the educated intellectual whose knowledge and intelligence has been alienated and now our real and professional journalists have become strangers.

Karroubi indicated that financial difficulties are the main problem in establishing “Saba” satellite television.

This friendly gathering ended with Mehdi Karroubi comforting the journalists: “Rest assure that the situation will not remain like this and the government has to change the situation and open up the [political] atmosphere. Moreover be certain that I as a clergyman will do what I know is my duty, and I am not afraid of paying its price.”
Wednesday
Oct282009

Latest Iran Video: Families of Detainees Protest (28 October)

Iran: Towards 13 Aban — The University Protests
The Latest from Iran (28 October): The Supreme Leader Jumps In

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Three videos of today's protest

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDe2KerG-Bo[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQEjKNrppP4[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_ggWT_P1Ks[/youtube]