Israel: Barak Repairing Position with US Government on Palestine Talks?

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On Sunday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak called on government officials to coordinate with the United States to renew talks with the Palestinian Authority: "We must work with the American administration and consolidate an agreement to open negotiations as soon as possible, even if the conditions aren't perfect and even if we have to make difficult concessions."

Although Barak's suggestion follows the recent, inconclusive trip of President Obama's special envoy George Mitchell to Israel and Palestine, it may be spurred even more by domestic political considerations. Barak is enjoying a favourable wind, as Minister Avigdor Lieberman and possibly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be in trouble with Washington over their resistance to US demands for a full settlement freeze in the West Bank. If the Labour Party's top politician sees this spilling over into discontent amongst Israeli voters, he may be willing to push his position against his coaliation partners.

Iran Discussion: The Bombings, Jundallah, and the US

Latest Iran Video: Larijani on The Bombings, Jundallah & The US (18 October)
Video: Blame on Sunni Group Jundallah, US For Bombing
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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One of the immediate headline issues in yesterday's bombings in Iran, which killed at least 42 people including six senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, was US involvement. For years, the Iranian Government has asserted American support of the Sunni-Baluch group Jundallah, who were the likely attackers. The Islamic Revolution Guard Corps made the allegation within hours of the bombings, and the claim was repeated by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani. Interestingly, President Ahmadinejad and his Cabinet later distanced themselves from the US-first thesis, shifting to Pakistan, probably to maintain the engagement process with Washington.

Before the latest news from the Iranian Cabinet, EA's Mr Smith and Chris Emery went over the evidence of American links to Jundullah:

SMITH: We would normally dismiss the Iranian claims of foreign interference as the usual anti-West yarn from Tehran, but the claims against [Jundallah leader Abdolmalek] Rigi warrant extra attention. He is an extremely shadowy figure who appears to be well-protected, to the extent that his own brother has been caught and sentenced to death by the Iranian authorities but he himself is still at large. Also, he appeared several times on Voice of America Persian, identified as leader of the "Popular Resistance Movement of Iran", which is of course something VOA made up - it's not quite the Persian translation of Jundullah.

Exactly how the VOA got hold of him for a live interview, via satellite phone, is quite unexplained, as is the prominence and deference accorded to him. This interview caused a serious backlash in the Iranian blogosphere and discredited VOA Persian heavily.

EMERY: I think that the claims are much harder to dismiss when [investigative journalist] Seymour Hersh and [former CIA operative] Robert Baer have stated that Jundullah receives US support. I think it was very much a tit-for-tat policy after alleged Iranian support for Iraqi Shia groups in attacks on US troops. It has been reported that Obama ended these operations.

Iranians will still wonder why Jundullah is not on the State Department's list of foreign terrorist organisations.

Obama cannot privately say to the Iranians that he stopped covert support, as it obviously an admittance of past US policy, but he can now offer cooperation via Pakistan and Afghanistan. In fact, it will be interested to see how Iran approaches a now very distracted Pakistan; thus far, cooperation has been patchy. [EDITOR'S NOTE: In light of the subsequent Iranian Cabinet pressure on Pakistan, I find this a telling remark.]

SMITH: I am not really sure that that Obama Administration has ever supported Jundullah --- it looks to me more like a smelly leftover from the Bush administration's penchant for "Iran destabilisation" via the infamous $75 million allocated for civil society and incitement of ethnic groups. As always, however, the Americans are masters at starting a mess and leaving it there to boil.

And they appear to have created a real monster this time, as this is a well-fed, relatively efficient group that appears to be running the show in Sistan-Baluchestan and being able to strike at will. It is more an embarassment that anything else for the current US Government, as I doubt they now have the capacity to rein them in.

The VOA link I highlighted was really preposterous, as it harks back to the heydays of Bush's desire to come up with anything that was anti-Islamic Republic of Iran and appeared to operate inside the country.

EMERY: As well as the $75 million announced in 2006, which I'm not sure would have ended up in Jundullah's hands, Hersh alleges a seperate request made to Congress in late 2007. Apparently that was for up to $200 million.

SMITH: Perhaps the $75-200 million would not end up directly in the hands of Jundullah, but all these ethnic militant groups have fronts that serve as cultural associations. So in one way or another these groups are probably recipients of US and perhaps British money. This issue should be clarified once and for all by the Obama administration, and I hope a lid is put on this. It is simply an embarassment for anyone involved, including the Saudis (who incidentally are merrily allowing channels such as Al-Arabiya to air exclusives with Abdolmalek Rigi).

Latest Iran Video: Larijani on The Bombings, Jundullah & The US (18 October)

Iran Discussion: The Bombings, Jundullah, and the US
Latest Iran Video: Inside Jundallah and Today’s Bombings (18 October)
The Latest from Iran (18 October): Today’s Bombings

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Sunday afternoon, hours after the bombings in Sistan-Baluchestan, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani commented on Press TV, linking the US to the attacks. As we've noted in a separate analysis, the Ahmadinejad Government subsequently backed away from this line:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewRGLiWcun8[/youtube]

Israel: Can Netanyahu Really Escape US Pressure?

Israel-Palestine: UN Council Endorses Goldstone Report — What Now?
Video: Protests over former Israel PM Olmert in Chicago

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On Friday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu criticized the endorsement by the United Nations Human Rights Council of the Goldstone Report, which claimed both Israel and Hamas had committed war crimes during the Gaza War in December-January. Netanyahu warned the Israeli nation to be prepared for a protracted struggle. Declaring "the delegitimization [of Israel] must be delegitimized", he added, "The UN has returned to the dark days during which it equated Zionism with racism."

Netanyahu's statement is in line with his Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman's leaked memorandum calling for a “zero-tolerance” policy for anti-Semitic expression around the world. But does the Prime Minister also back Lieberman's strategy of a move from “lone dependence” on Washington to the "neglected" parts of the world?

The was the only Security Council member that voted against the Goldstone resolution in the UNHRC. Yet Ha'aretz correspondent Aluf Benn believes the Obama Administration will use the diplomatic arena to get more Israeli concessions on the expansion of settlements:

Operation Cast Lead in Gaza was perceived in Israel as a shining victory. Rocket fire from Gaza was brought to a halt almost completely. The Israel Defense Forces emerged from its failure during the Second Lebanon War and deployed ground forces with few casualties. "The world" let the operation continue and did not impose a cease-fire. A wonderful war.

Ten months later, it seems the victory was a Pyrrhic one. Israel did not realize that the rules have changed with Barack Obama's election as U.S. president. Prime minister Ehud Olmert timed Cast Lead to take place during the twilight period between the outgoing and incoming U.S. administrations, and rightly assumed that the incumbent, George W. Bush, would fully back Israel. However, in contrast to the Lebanon war of 2006, which ended with a cease-fire, the Gaza campaign continues being fought - in the diplomatic arena and in public opinion - and Israel must cope with its consequences in a less-friendly Obama era.

During the first, military round, Israel benefited from the decisive superiority of its firepower. However the Palestinians moved the war's current round to an arena more comfortable for them, and are benefiting from their advantage in UN institutions and in public opinion. The calls to boycott Israel are getting louder. Turkey is shirking off its strategic alliance with Israel and is presenting IDF soldiers as horrible murderers of children. Hamas is gradually winning recognition as a legitimate player, as it continues to amass a stock of rockets without hindrance. Meanwhile Israel's leaders are busy defending the country against the United Nations' Goldstone report (that accuses Israel and Hamas of perpetrating war crimes), and some even have to worry now about being the object of arrest warrants in Europe.

Even if the legal process that Goldstone initiated ends up being halted, and Israel is not put in the dock in The Hague, its hands have been tied. The world, led by Obama, will not let it initiate a Cast Lead II operation. Certainly not when a right-wing government is in power in Jerusalem led by Benjamin Netanyahu, whom the world loves to hate. Netanyahu's clumsy attempt, in his Knesset speech this week, to link the war in Gaza to opposition leader Tzipi Livni did not really succeed. He is in power and the world considers him responsible. The Americans and the Europeans are using the Goldstone report to punish Netanyahu for his refusal to freeze the settlements.

The same thing happened to the Palestinians between the two intifadas. When they hurled stones during the first intifada (1987-1993) and the confrontation was in the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip, the world cheered them on and forced Israel to recognize the Palestine Liberation Organization and to let its leader Yasser Arafat establish his autonomy in the territories. The Palestinian violence at that time was perceived as appropriate resistance to occupation. During the second intifada, the Palestinians resorted to suicide attacks in Israeli cities. They succeeded in killing many more Israelis, but they lost in the diplomatic arena, especially after the September 11 attacks in the United States, when the rules changed. The world was fed up with terror attacks and it allowed then-prime minister Ariel Sharon to reoccupy the West Bank, lock Arafat in a cage (his headquarters in Ramallah) and eventually unload Gaza without a peace arrangement.

Operation Cast Lead was the most planned operation in the annals of Israel's wars. Its organizers filled out all the forms and checked off on all the procedural changes that had been recommended by the Winograd Committee after its investigation of the shortcomings of the Second Lebanon War. The campaign's goals were reasonable. The scenarios were rehearsed. The reservists were trained. Jurists anticipated the legality of every target and operational plan. The soldiers were properly outfitted with food, water and protective equipment. The local authorities in the Israeli rear functioned as they should have. The media obeyed. In short, the government and the IDF prepared exceptionally well for a Third Lebanon War. They only forgot that the conditions on the Palestinian front are different than in Lebanon.

Not everybody shared the euphoria. The defense minister, Ehud Barak, wanted to halt Cast Lead after two or three days, but was overruled by Olmert who wanted to keep the campaign going, and then going further. Columnists and commentators warned of Gaza becoming a quagmire.

And most interesting: The Winograd Committee anticipated the lurking legal danger to Israel, and in its final report had warned of "far-reaching consequences" resulting from the widening gap between the rules of warfare and the reality of fighting terror launched from civilian surroundings. The committee recommended pulling the legal experts out of the operation rooms, increasing and highlighting investigation of irregular activities, and working with friendly countries to amend the rules of warfare, a recommendation that is easy to make but difficult to implement. The Winograd report did not warn against going into the next war before the rules of warfare are changed. The legal recommendations, drafted with restraint out of fear they would be used for anti-Israeli propaganda, were lost in the sea of piquant items in the report.

Upon returning to power, Netanyahu hoped to leave the Palestinian issue on the side and focus on the Iranian threat and on economic reforms. Now his government will have to cope with the consequences of Cast Lead and do so under less than ideal conditions, heavy international pressure and fear of arrest warrants and charge sheets.

Palestine: Abbas Goes on Offense, Criticises Hamas, Israel, and the US

US to Egypt: Stop the Fatah-Hamas Reconciliation Talks

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Facing increasing internal pressure and Washington's intervention in Fatah-Hamas talks, Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas has tried to take the political offensive. On Tuesday, he implicitly threatened that he could not control the masses if a "Third Intifada" arose in response to Israeli restrictions in East Jerusalem, announcing the re-submission of a motion to the UN condemning Israel's offensive during the Gaza War, and accused Hamas of unwillingness to reach a reconciliation agreement.

The UN Human Rights Council announced that the Goldstone Report on Gaza will be discussed on Thursday, and the UN Security Council will discuss the matter today. Ibrahim Khraishi, the Palestinian Authority's UN ambassador in Geneva, said the two-day debate would also examine recent incidents of violence in Jerusalem.

However, Abbas is trying to secure his position by moving attention to his negotiations with Hamas and Israel. He said that Hamas was using the Goldstone report as an "excuse to run away from reconciliation and, for the first time, criticized Washington clearly and harshly. According to the Associated Press, an internal Palestine Authority memo says:

All hopes placed in the new U.S. administration and President Obama have evaporated... Obama couldn't withstand the pressure of the Zionist lobby, which led to a retreat from his previous positions on halting settlement construction and defining an agenda for the negotiations and peace.

Facing elections and amidst the reconciliation talks, Abbas's challenge to Washington is a risky game. At the end of the day, it is not clear how the Obama Administration will react to a man "shouldering all the troubles of the West Bank".