Saturday
Dec122009
The Latest from Iran (12 December): Bubbling Under
Saturday, December 12, 2009 at 13:24 
2250 GMT: Apologies. Earlier, we erroneously posted a Reuters report that Mir Hossein Mousavi had called for a national strike if he is arrested. A case of moving too quickly on a tense night: the report is from 20 June.2220 GMT: Bubbling Over? Back after an evening's break to find a swirl of rumours --- if this morning started with tensions bubbling under, the evening has brought the prospect of them bubbling over.
The furour over the alleged burning of Imam Khomeini's picture, stirred by pro-Government media, is now being read as a pretext for possible aggressive action against opposition leadership. Kalemeh, the website associated with Mir Hossein website, has posted this note:
WARNING: Beware that an event is unfolding!
Kaleme: Following the planned scenario for disgracing Imam Khomeini and accusing the Green movement and the students of this act, since yesterday official pro-Ahmadinejad media have started a heavy propaganda with a hidden agenda and based on the information available it seems that they are preparing for some harsher crack downs.
All supporters of the Green movement are strongly advised to be extremely vigilant and make sure to stay on top of the latest news.
Because of the extreme restrictions on informing people, Kaleme (Mousavi's official website) is advising other news media to warn their users about the necessity of being watchful!
You Are The Media !
The Kalemeh post has in turn prompted other sites such as Norooz to speculate that Mousavi's arrest may be imminent. We are monitoring the situation but must emphasize that, at this point, these reports are just rumours.
1650 GMT: The Back-and-Forth on the "Burning" of Khomeini. EA's Mr Smith, after consulting sources, checks in to work through the possibilities of the story:
Many remain convinced that the act was indeed really anti-regime. However, whether or not the burning of the photograph was genuine, the follow-up was predictable: Iranian TV trumpeted the footage as proof of the Green Wave's anti-revolutionary stance.
A veteran Iranian journalist has written, "It is not suspicious. It is opposition to the Islamic Republic. The people are clearly stating that they don't want to go back in time to the period when [Mousavi was] Prime Minister [in the 1980s]. Rather, they want to move forward, past the Islamic Republic. Mr. Mousavi, you should publicly state where you are positioned in all this."
This was a reply to to Mousavi's own reply to Jomhouri Eslami newspaper, in which he deftly distanced the Green movement from the burning and rather flimsily labelled the burning of Khomeini's poster as the work of agent provocateurs. Very interestingly, though, he omitted any reference to Khamenei's image, which you will recall was torn and burnt alongside Khomeini's in the YouTube footage. Mousavi's respect is only centred on the figure of the "Holy Imam", no mention of his successor whatsoever.
Iran Special: Kermit the Frog Re-Mixes “It’s Not Easy Being Green”
Iran: A Renewed Washington Love Affair With The Green Movement?
Iran’s Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “Khamenei in Hejab/We Are All Majids”
Iran: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli “His 16 Azar Speech on Video”
Iran: “The Military Will Stand with the Iranian People”? (with Audio)
The Latest from Iran (11 December): Ripples and then Ruptures?
1530 GMT: Worst "Analysis" of the Day. Congratulations to Abbas Barzegar for his conclusion pulled down from the sky, "Revolution Halted in Iran".
To do the injustices of this piece suitable justice would require a separate entry. Let's just say that Barzegar extrapolates from a suitable premise --- that the political movements do not simply consist of 2President Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khamenei on one side versus Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Ayatollah Rafsanjani, and the entire Iranian nation on the other" --- to wandering and unsupported claims on the Green movement: "a dispersed core of intellectual and political elites with no clear agenda or ability to mobilise".
To put this caricature into perspective, let's just refer back to another Barzegar "analysis":
Ahmedinejad turned the election into a referendum on the very project of Iran's Islamic revolution. Their street chants yelled "Death to all those against the Supreme Leader" followed by traditional Shia rituals and elegies. It was no match for the high-spirited fun-loving youth of northern Tehran, [defeated as they] sang "Ahmedi-bye-bye, Ahmedi-bye-bye" or "ye hafte-do hafte, Mahmud hamum na-rafte" (One week, two weeks, Mahmoud hasn't taken a shower).
The date of the proclamation of that Ahmadinejad victory? 13 June.
1520 GMT: Sentences for Shiraz University Students. Nine have been handed down jail terms, ranging from six months (suspended) to six years, for participation in 13 Aban (4 November) protests.
1420 GMT: The Arrests of 16 Azar. A website has posted the names and status of 34 protesters arrested last Monday, and an Iranian activist has provided an English translation via Twitter.
1320 GMT: Grand Ayatollah Sane'i has added his denunciation of alleged regime disinformation with the burning of Imam Khomeini's picture:
When some reach a dead end, they don’t even spear Imam Khomeini’s dignity and take advantage of him for their own purpose. Oppressors set Imam Khomeini’s picture on fire [themselves], then claim that the students did that; while the students support Imam Khomeini and are in debt to him, and if they are protesting, it is based on Imam Khomeini’s saying, “The scale is the people’s vote."
1255 GMT: We Didn't Start the Fire (against Imam Khomeini). The reformist Islamic Association of Students of Tehran University has strongly condemned broadcasting of the “suspicious” footage of the tearing and burning of Imam Khomeini’s picture on state-run TV.
The students offered a religious analogy to condemn the regime's disinformation: they warned that the desecration of Imam Khomeini’s dignity to create new crisis in the society harks back to the enemies of Imam Ali, Shi’a Islam's first Imam, abuse of the dignity of Quran by holding the holy book up in the middle of war for their own benefit. As a result, a group of extremist and foolish individuals took the power over the people.
Officials of the Imam Khomeini Institute have also expressed their suspicions over state media's use of the alleged images.
1245 GMT: Today's Regime Attack. And it's Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami stepping up to the plate to take a swing at the opposition. Looks like he's hoping to hit the soft pitch that they're tearing down the system" out of the park: "What they are after is to have a thin layer remaining of the Islamic Republic."
Khatami is also building on this week's theme of the "burning" of the image of Imam Khomeini: state media is reporting that "hundreds" of theological students staged a rally in downtown Tehran to protest against the "insult", with similar events were also held in other Iranian cities.
1145 GMT: We've posted a new entry on Iranians leaving the country amidst the post-election conflict and possible Government measures against them.
0945 GMT: And Keeping the Door Open. Foreign Minister Mottaki added that Iran would be happy to attend another meeting with the "5+1" powers on uranium enrichment. He is doing so on the basis of the fuel "swap" idea, however, with the exchange of Iran's 3.5 percent uranium stock for a 20 percent enrichment supply taking place inside the country.
0925 GMT: Holding the Line. Speaking at a regional security conference in Bahrain, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki neither closed the door on nuclear negotiations nor offered concessions. He nodded towards the ongoing talks, "First I think we could just totally abandon the whole thing or we could propose something more moderate, a kind of middle way ... Iran has done that." At the same time, he emphasised that Iran wanted to ensure control of the process, "We need 10 to 15 nuclear plants to generate electricity in our country."
0915 GMT: Taking Iran's Money. In what may be the biggest seizure of Iranian assets abroad since the Islamic Revolution, it has emerged that more than $2 billion allegedly held on behalf of Tehran in Citigroup accounts was frozen last year in a secret order by a federal court in New York City.
While the case is not directly tied to the US Government's sanctions on Iran, the court action was supported by information provided by the US Treasury.
The frozen assets are in the center of a legal battle between Luxembourg's Clearstream Banking, the holder of the Citibank account, and the families of hundreds of U.S. Marines killed or injured in a 1983 attack on a Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.
0825 GMT: A quieter start (and later one, we needed the rest) to the day, after the intensity of Friday's speculation over the purported letter/tapes from military groups "standing with the opposition" and the growing opposition campaign linked to the regime's treatment of detained student leader Majid Tavakoli. The excitement and confusion even swept away the Government's threats against those within (Hashemi Rafsanjani) and those without (the opposition who supposedly burned the pictures of the Supreme Leader and Ayatollah Khomeini on 16 Azar).
Quieter, however, does not mean silent. The campaign sparked by Tavakoli, with the videos and pictures of "We Are All Majids, All in Hejab" has both mobilised protest in the run-up to Moharram and boosted the swing in international attention and support. The Guardian of London has picked up on the Facebook campaign. Even Fox News picked up the story on one of its blogs, and The New York Times has a follow-up today, with prominent US-based academic Hamid Dabashi joining the movement. The conclusion of the article brought a smile and a "Really? No kidding!": "Six months after the June 12 presidential election, the dispute over its outcome appears nowhere near at an end."
This morning the campaign continues. Josh Shahryar has posted "An Ode to Majid Tavakoli".
On the military front, I am afraid we have little so far to solve the mystery of whether the letter/audio from eight Iranian units is authentic. There is an outstanding debate amongst readers on our post yesterday, which raises possibilities but no resolutions so far. We'll keep watching; however, the most important issue for the moment may be whether people --- both those supporting the Government and those opposing it --- think the message is real. For if so, then the uncertainty caused is a victory in itself for the opposition.
tagged 16 Azar, Abbas Barzegar, Ahmad Khatami, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Hamid Dabashi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Imam Khomeini Institute, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Association of Students, Josh Shahryar, Kalemeh, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Majid Tavakoli, Manouchehr Mottaki, Norooz, The Guardian in Middle East & Iran
16 Azar, Abbas Barzegar, Ahmad Khatami, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Hamid Dabashi, Hashemi Rafsanjani, Imam Khomeini Institute, Iran, Iran Elections 2009, Islamic Association of Students, Josh Shahryar, Kalemeh, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Majid Tavakoli, Manouchehr Mottaki, Norooz, The Guardian in Middle East & Iran
Reader Comments (40)
Victory in another battle: Iranian authorities have handed back the Nobel Peace Prize medal taken from the bank safety deposit box of laureate Shirin Ebadi.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2009/12/iran-authorities-hand-back-shirin-ebadis-nobel-peace-prize-medal.html
Catherine
Wow and just after they said they would swap 440kg of 3.5% U235 on Kish(Press TV with the title breaking news.) Funny how fast the regime reacts when things start to go bad for them. Maybe the real or fabricated Army letter in support of the reform movement has them shaking in their boots.
Thx
Bill
I have listened to Sazegara's video today dec. 12, he 's insisted and persisted on this letter from "Artesh"and pointed out that the "burning's story" of the Khomeyni 's picture was done by the islamic regime itself, because they have arrived at a cul-de-sac and want to attract people who believe in Khomeyni and islamic revolution :
http://video.aol.fr/video-detail/mohsen-sazegara-dec-12-09/2022850849
I want to believe in what he says, I have a " dream ".
The Iranian Government is so desperate they burn photos of Khomeini. How sad.Too bad 90 percent of Iranians are so tired of this regime's lies and mismanagement that they will see right through this lie as well.
They are so predictable unfortunately out of ideas for the last 25 years and out of time.
The proud persian people will prevail.
Shout out to Samuel, see you in hell cowboy.
First off, Holy Cr@p! That Barzegar article is AWFUL. For one, the following paragraph makes no sense:
"On that note, the morality police have left the posh streets of northern Tehran and abandoned the idea of a cultural revolution, following a Chinese model of lax controls on social freedoms and high risks for political opposition. It is unlikely that the masses we saw on 15, 16 and 17 June will come out again anytime soon."
Huh? Duuuude, pass the bong.
Every other sentence is riddled w/ falsehoods and inaccuracies.
Ian Black's piece is http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/11/iran-new-revolution-dream" rel="nofollow">much better.
Meanwhile, via Verbrugge, http://www.twitlonger.com/show/17vdc" rel="nofollow">Motahari comes out swinging. If I had to analyze, I'd say he's gunning for IRGC leadership there, not just AN. He's also right. Trying to isolate Raf strikes me as unwise.
Further, utterly unsourced (though, if true, understandable), http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/280185744/from-the-grapevine-soldiers-talk" rel="nofollow">THIS, also from Verbrugge.
An apparent map for marches in Gorgan on Ashora and Tasoa http://twitpic.com/t7v5z
Via the FB associated with Mousavi, and Kaleme, http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=202949972605" rel="nofollow">a warning of imminent crackdown?
[...]Further, utterly unsourced (though, if true, understandable), THIS (http://mikverbrugge.tumblr.com/post/280185744/from-the-grapevine-soldiers-talk), also from Verbrugge.[...]
I hadn't heard the name Ali Fazli since rumours of his arrest in late June (and subsequent denial in state run media). Very interesting to see the repercussions six months down the line.
[...] Quelle Veröffentlicht in Hintergrund. Kommentar schreiben » [...]
ah...are you guys following all the major Twitters? there's major concern about Mousavi's imminent arrest!
I do not know if you know this but that Reuters article is from June 20
Anonymous,
Sorry --- moving too quickly amidst tonight's tension. Have fired myself for ineptitude,
S.
It is okay in the 6 months I have been watching this I have seen many people make many mistakes. But from what I am currently seeing right now this is the most buzz I have seen about the possible arrest of Moussavi in a while. That doesn't mean it's true though. On the night of June 20th almost all of Twitter was saying there were tanks moving into Tehran as it turns out there were not.
Update Karroubi's site Tagheer has been down for several hours
So, what to believe on Twitter?. Oxfordgirl (who usually has good info) says NOTHING IMMINENT.
OTOH, there's http://www.twitlonger.com/show/184g8" rel="nofollow">THIS and http://www.twitlonger.com/show/183vi" rel="nofollow">THIS.
For now, I'll go with oxfordgirl. For now.
"A veteran Iranian journalist has written, “It is not suspicious. It is opposition to the Islamic Republic. The people are clearly stating that they don’t want to go back in time to the period when [Mousavi was] Prime Minister [in the 1980s]. Rather, they want to move forward, past the Islamic Republic. Mr. Mousavi, you should publicly state where you are positioned in all this.”"
Well it's not the "people" that want this but yes of course the radical greens don't want anything to do with the Islamic revolution or with Imam Khomeini which is why Mousavi realizes that he is in trouble. Mousavi is in a bigger hole than Saddam Hussein was when they finally caught up with him. The complete incoherence of his movement is clear to all.
"Mousavi’s respect is only centred on the figure of the “Holy Imam”, no mention of his successor whatsoever."
Wow that is truly a shocker, imagine that Mousavi does not respect the Supreme Leader. In other breaking news the Israeli Prime Minister announced today that he is a Zionist and it was finally determined that Lenin was a Marxist.
________________________________________________________
Imam Khomeini's message in his own words:
http://www.shiatv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=d38b55728a9f56b043d3
"The students offered a religious analogy to condemn the regime’s disinformation: they warned that the desecration of Imam Khomeini’s dignity to create new crisis in the society harks back to the enemies of Imam Ali, Shi’a Islam’s first Imam, abuse of the dignity of Quran by holding the holy book up in the middle of war for their own benefit. As a result, a group of extremist and foolish individuals took the power over the people."
This is the most idiotic analogy ever made and supposedly by muslim students. They are clearly refferring to the Battle of Siffin when the soldiers backing the Syrian leader Muawiya put parchment sheets of the Koran on their spears. This created dissent among Imam Ali's troops just as they were on the verge of victory because they did not want to continue fighting fellow devout muslims.
If Imam Ali's troops had achieved a clear victory Shiites might very well be the majority group within Islam today.
The fact is that it is the so called reformists that have been using Islamic words and symbols to achieve Anti-Islamic goals beginning with the adoption of the color green. Why when the greenie students showed up for the Friday prayers by Rafsanjani many did not even know how to pray and had to be taught the way children are taught.
In many ways it is the radical students who are the heirs of Muawiya's troops.
[Removed by moderator]
PB,
155. All done by AN himself after which he took his first bath in months. Next silly question.
_______________________________________________________
If Mousavi was really a faithful follower of Imam Khomeini he would cut off his own arms:
http://www.shiatv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=d38b55728a9f56b043d3
Samuel,
Despite your rhetoric I have to admit I get a laugh at many of your jokes!!!
Anti Islamic? Is it unislamic to expect rights under the constitution that has it's basis Sharia? I think not and the regime has clearly violated so many of these rights. What moral or legal ground do they have to do this? At the start of the revolution the SL clearly stated a key motivating factor was the Shah not listening to the people. Well it is quite clear it is the regime who is not listening now. I would hardly call the censorship, trial with no legal respresentation, killings, rapes, and beatings Islamic. As I have stated so many times the regime upholds the system more than it does the people. To many in the regime the people are just "sheep" and well since the regime views themselves as "chosen" by god to lead they think what they say is all that matters. How is that the Quran, which embodies the rights of the people, is so callously discared in favor of a man made system? Go back and reference your Quran and the Iranian constitution then contrast it with what the regime is doing. While I am oposed to much in Islam it is quite clear to even me that the regime is violating God's law on so many levels. Samuel your obviously very articulate and bright how can you not see this? Oppression never works!
Thx
Bill
Well said Bill Davit
Samuel, listen to him and I am sure, in the bottom of your heart, you have heard it ! and you have doubts.
Hugs my friend
Bill Davit,
This is not really the place for a theological discussion where Quranic passages are tossed back and forth but suffice it to say that Islam does not approve or war or violence either except under certain circumstances. At this point we are talking about the defense of the Islamic state created by the Ayatollah Khomeini who once said that one could even temporarily suspend sharia if that was necessary to defend the Revolution and the Islamic State.
I am not asking you or anyone else to accept Khomeini's doctrine or legacy but merely to recognize it and understand it. And once you do that consider whether Mousavi and company who pledge their eternal loyalty to the Imam are truly being loyal followers or lying cynics.
One more thing (and I know this will be taken as simple propaganda but it is a fact) there is below the surface of the anti government radicals a chauvinistic even racist form of purely secular Iranian nationalism. Underlying it is the notion that Islam and the "savage", ________________ (include here any other number of pejorative terms) ways and culture of the Arabs have been forced upon Iranians. To them Iranians are a white people whose true affinity is with the Europeans and not their immediate Arab neighbors.
You can see this sentiment on Iranian emigre web sites, you hear it in daily conversation and you also see it on this site in some of the posts. "A Persian people", a "Persian Culture", "the (insulting term) Arabs". This all ties in very well with all of the desires to separate Iran from Hezbollah, Hamas, the Shiites in Yemen and any other intra-Arab conflict. It also ties in with the desire to establish a secular, European style democracy and culture in Iran.
In essence the radical reformist project is much more than "anti-dictatorship" it is at heart anti-Shiite and anti-Islam in general and obsessed with ethnicity.
By the way everyone keeps talking about the "killings" and yet no one has been killed in the last several protests. Of course I don't really expect anyone here to give credit to Naghdi or the Basij for this but it is the reality.
ange,
If I really thought that Prime Minister Mousavi, Majlis Speaker Karroubi and President Khatami represented the legacy of the Ayatollah Khomeini as they so passionately claim I would be with them 100%.
I'm sorry to say I think you're wasting your efforts on Samuel. I speculate he's a convert to Shiism, of the sort you find on http://www.shiachat.com/ who know nothing about Iran but what they hear from the official government line and they believe it with a convert's fervour.
Yes I am a convert to Islam in the same sense that AN is a convert to Islam from Judaism.
But on a serious note. It is somewhat strange that Iranian chauvinists are so anti-Arab. In the last 700 years or so the most influential peoples in Islam have not been Arab at all but Turks and Persians.
Today the largest Islamic country is Indonesia as different from Arab culture as one can be.