1. This is not "a substantial withdrawal". It is a limit to the escalation in the US military presence begun by the Obama Administration soon after it took office.
2. This "withdrawal" is based on an Al Qa'eda puppet show.
3. This is not a Presidential victory over his military advisors, with a full US withdrawal as the eventual outcome.
4. This is a speech looking towards a domestic victory.
The significance of the programme's immediate claims --- amidst interviews with someone detained long before the spring but also those claiming to have been innocent dupes of recruiters, amidst disappearing websites but also established companies and trade associations --- is not clear.
What is clear, however, is the intent. A couple of individual cases of Iranians pursuing job opportunities is used to explain the arrests in May, even though the mystery remains --- note that none of the 30 suspects is actually named in the documentary. And, perhaps more importantly, it is magnified into a massive, omni-present US operation, backed by hundreds of millions of dollars.
As the programme moves into reconstruction of what could happen to an Iranian if he/she falls for the CIA's ruse and then puts a specific (unfounded) warning to students: "$3 million" has been devoted by the Americans to recruit them, the message takes shape: whatever the internal issues in Iran, it is the Americans who are always the primary threat.
We got a tour of the place with lots of press. The story is that the Syrian Military Intelligence (SMI) garrison was attacked and seized over the course of about 36 hours between 4 and 5 June. 500 “armed criminals” attacked. The detachment, about 72 people, was overrun when they ran out of ammo. The condition of the place was pretty consistent with an armed attack, though I don’t think it lasted that long and I think the garrison likely surrendered. The insurgents then took over the city, looting several gov’t buildings, esp the Palace of Justice and burning the files there, esp the criminal investigation records. These buildings were extensively damaged. No evidence of real damage in the rest of the town – I don’t think the military took it by force. They just rolled in.
There are people returning – we saw a convoy of what we were told was refugees returning from Turkey, waving Syrian flags and photos of the President. The city is still pretty devoid of people, but there are some shops open and people in the streets. They seem to get along with the soldiers, but that could have been staged for our benefit.
Clashes last night around Freedom Square in Taiz in Yemen(see 0455 GMT)
1655 GMT: Earlier, we noted an Associated Press update that Hamza al-Qu'ayti was likely among the 57 Al Qaeda members who escaped a Yemeni prison today. Hamza was killed in 2008 (thanks to Gregory Johnsen for that catch).
1634 GMT: The commander of NATO forces in Libya, Lt.-Gen. Charles Bouchard, has responded to calls for a ceasefire by stating that any lull in action would empower Gaddafi's forces. He dismissed claims that civilian casualties were on the rise, pointing out that very few of the air strikes have resulted in collateral damage, despite the fact that Gaddafi is still actively hiding amongst civilians while targeting civilians with his own strikes.
Bouchard also dismissed claims that a ceasefire was neccesary for humanitarian aid to reach civilians. He pointed out that aid is reaching civilians in rebel-controlled territory, and that Gaddafi was actively blocking this access in his own territory:
“A ceasefire, temporary in nature, cannot just be an opportunity for both sides to reload and engage in further violence down the road. We must continue to stay engaged to prevent that rearming from taking place and reinforcement from taking place,” he said.
“Truly, at the end of the day, if the Gadhafi regime wants their population to receive humanitarian assistance all they have to do is let the shipments go by.”
1616 GMT: The Associated Press is reporting fresh clashes in Bahrain, after 21 activists have been sentenced today, 8 of the with life sentences (see updates below):
1740 GMT: The Supreme Leader's Men. Iranian media are reporting that Mojtaba Zolnour, the Supreme Leader's representative to the Revolutionary Guards, is leaving his post. The reason is unclear. Hafte Sobh, the website linked to Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, says he has been dismissed for slander, while Fars claims Zolnour is running for Parliament next year.
In recent weeks, Zolnour has been an outspoken critic of the "deviant" current around President Ahmadinejad, including Rahim-Mashai (see 1500 GMT).
Abdulhadi Al KhawajaThe 21 activists and opposition figures sentenced an emergency court in Bahrain today, with eight receiving life terms (see LiveBlog).
1. Abdul Wahhab Hussain: Life imprisonment. Member of Coalition for a Republic, promiment writer
2. Hassan Mushaimaa: Life imprisonment. Head of Haq movement. Member of Coalition for a Republic
3. Mohammed Habib Al Muqdad: Life imprisonment. Prominent cleric. Head of Al Zahra Orphanage 4. Ibrahim Sharif: 5 years imprisonment. President of Waad Society
Last Saturday, 12 political detainees in Evin Prison began a hunger strike, protesting the recent deaths of activists Haleh Sahabi and Hoda Saber and the general conditions for prisoners.
A campaign of support has arisen inside and outside Iran, featuring video messages to the hunger striker and to the general public.
Journalist Masih Alinejad, now living in exile in Britain:
Journalist Maziar Bahari, who was detained for four months after the 2009 Presidential election:
Other videos, including messages from cartoonist Nikahang Kowsar, lawyer and activist Mehranghiz Kar, and academic Hamid Dabashi, have been posted at Iranian.com.
Nikahang Kowsar, drawing for Rooz Online, envisages former President Abolhassan Bani Sadr --- chased from Iran in 1981 --- speaking to current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: "Look, they won't allow you to go anywhere. Stick to this mouse hole!"
Protest in Tunisia, January 2011Nearly six months after Tunisia ousted its former dictator, positive talk of the country's advance towards democracy is accompanied by suspicions that this advance is slow and reluctant. There is fear, for example, that the coming constituent assembly elections will be postponed forever and that the country might miss a truly historic opportunity. Are these suspicions justified?
Workers on Strike, February 2011It remains unclear if the new, post-Mubarak Egypt can succeed in addressing the socio-economic grievances that helped to spark the January 25 uprising.
The prevailing discourse among Egyptian elites and opinion makers, however, already signals that the answer is no. The ambivalent, if not hostile, rhetoric directed toward demands for more humane standards of living points to the potential for continuity in the highly uneven economic order. While most believe that there will be no return to the pre-January 25 political system, even if post-Mubarak Egypt is not fully democratic, workers may continue to be marginalized by the economic liberalization begun under the previous regime.
Thursday, June 23, 2011 at 9:41 | 
1. This is not "a substantial withdrawal". It is a limit to the escalation in the US military presence begun by the Obama Administration soon after it took office.
