Syria Today: The Back-and-Forth Fight Around Damascus

Opening Analysis

Saturday offered yet another caution against sweeping declarations that the Syrian conflict is nearing a resolution, in this case victory for the regime.

In the pendulum swing from last year's narrative was that the insurgents were on an inexorable march to success, so this month's --- including in outlets like The Washington Post --- has been that President Assad's military were on the point of defeating the insurgency.

Yesterday, however, the assurance that regime troops had broken the months-long hold of insurgents on a ring of Damascus suburbs ran into trouble. A coalition of opposition brigades --- including elements of the Free Syrian Army and the Islamist factions Jabhat al-Nusra, Liwaa al-Islam, and Liwaa Martyrs of Douma--- reclaimed Otaiba.

Otaiba is only two miles from Damascus International Airport and has been one of the points for the flow of foreign-supplied arms from Jordan to the insurgency. Last month, it was taken by the regime after sustained shelling and attacks.

On Saturday, insurgent commanders celebrated the victory by proclaiming that --- in contrast to the disarry that "lost" Otaiba to the Syrian military --- their new "unity" would bring a renewed offensive against President Assad's forces. One declared, "This is like a rehearsal for a wider cooperation across the country. If this is successful then all of us will consider forming a national army."

That, like other sweeping predictions, should be treated with caution. However, this weekend's developments have offered a valuable conclusion: neither side is likely to be enjoying "final" victory in a battle for Damascus for quite some time.

Turkey Analysis: Beyond the Car Bombs --- The Kurds, Iraq, and Syria

Last week, two car bombs exploded in Reyhanli in southern Turkey, close to the Syrian border, killing almost 50 people and injuring more than 100.

While nobody claimed responsibility for the deadly incident, it raised the immediate question of whether Turkey would escalate its intervention in Syria, either alone or with others.

However, that reaction was too narrow and missed the wider context. This is not just about the Syrian conflict but also Turkey's internal politics, specifically its attempt to resolve the sensitive Kurdish issue.

The primary concern for the Erdogan government is the ongoing peace drive with the Kurdish leadership, including imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. So the question is not just whether the events in Reyhanli complicated Turkey's position inside Syria but also whether they threaten these delicate internal negotiations.

Click to read more ...

Syria Today: The Fight Over the International "Peace" Conference

---

Insurgents Retake Suburb of Damascus

Insurgents have retaken the Damascus suburb of Otaiba, which was been a conduit for arms from Jordan to opposition forces near the capital before it was seized by regime forces last month.

Commanders said insurgent brigades, including the General Command and Islamist factions, had united to re-claim Otaiba, two miles northeast of Damascus International Airport.

The opposition forces adopted a white banner with the Muslim declaration of faith: "There is no god but God; Mohammad is God's prophet."

Click to read more ...

Syria Today: Obama & Erdogan Call for Assad to Go --- But Will They Do Anything?

Rebels Prepare to Attack Damascus Airport.

Rebel fighters may be on the move once again in Damascus, near the international airport that is used to ferry supplies in and out of the country.

#Syria #Damascus Big battle in vicinity of int. airport with mortar impacts on runway Rebel convoy heading to ityoutube.com/watch?feature=…

— Mark (@markito0171) May 17, 2013

Meanwhile, to the north of Damascus the Assad regime has been conducting an intense artillery and airstrike campaign against Yabroud. The hilltop suburb has been heavily occupied by rebel forces for many months, but it now appears that the area is being softened up, possibly or a direct regime assault on the town.

Click to read more ...

Syria Audio Analysis: Why The Insurgency is More than "Jihadists" and "Cannibals"

Speaking with Monocle 24's The Briefing this afternoon, I faced the question if the West was distancing itself from the insurgency because they are "jihadists" and "cannibals".

Listen from 5:53 mark on The Briefing's homepage or in a separate pop-out window

I replied that the issues are far more complex than backing of Al Qa'eda-affiliated extremists and flesh-eating fighters.

1. The US and Britain are trying to get a political conference for a transitional government in which President Assad has no role --- and are pressuring Russia for this.

2. If this is not possible, Washington and London are considering, but are still undecided, about support of a no-fly zone and arming of the insurgents "in an attempt to remove the Assad regime or to contain it in a few areas".

Syria Feature: How Not to Report Propaganda --- "Israel, Hezbollah, Iran Work with Assad"

Assad & Netanyahu: BFFs (says Jerusalem Post)Step up, Jerusalem Post....

"Israel, Hezbollah, Iran are working with Assad"

Really? We get Hezbollah and Iran the part. But Israel?

Click to read more ...

Syria Today: US and Russia Manoeuvre Over Support for Assad

1930 GMT: Even Government Sources Admit Baniyas is Different.

The Baniyas massacre on Syria's coast may be a singular event that stands out as being dramatically different than all the other massacres. For starters, the scale of the massacre is at least among the worst of all of Syria's massacres, though some reports suggest that it may be magnitudes worse than any event that has taken place since the start of this crisis. Also, this incident had a clearly sectarian nature to it that is not disputed - Alawite militias loyal to President Assad targeted Sunnis, many of them children, and killed them en masse. In a thorough, nuanced, and eloquent description of the massacre, the New York Times' Anne Barnard and Hania Mourtada point out that the Assad government typically blames civilian deaths on "terrorists" even when their own forces and loyalists are implicated. This time, however, even the government admitted that its people were responsible for a mass killing, though they tell a different tale than Baniyas's residents:

Multiple video images that residents said they had recorded in Bayda and Ras al-Nabeh — of small children lying where they died, some embracing one another or their parents — were so searing that even some government supporters rejected Syrian television’s official version of events, that the army had “crushed a number of terrorists.”

One prominent pro-government writer, Bassam al-Qadi, took the unusual, risky step of publicly blaming loyalist gunmen for the killings and accusing the government of “turning a blind eye to criminals and murderers in the name of ‘defending the homeland.’ “

The article chronicles some of the evidence and eyewitness reports. It also argues that there were those who were trying to break with the sectarian nature of the killings even while the violence was ongoing. In the end, however, it's a must-read article on a story that has been under-reported.

Click to read more ...

Syria Today: Another Week of Stalemate?

1613 GMT: Rebels Make "Rules of War" Videos.

Al Jazeera English reports that a non-government organization, Geneva Call, has helped the Syrian National Coalition to develop videos that spell out the codes of conduct for rebel fighters that explain the international standards that their fighters should follow:

1546 GMT: Rebels Reportedly Shoot Down Helicopter.

The LCC is reporting that a "warplane" delivering supplies to the Abu ad Duhor airbase has been shot down (map). "Warplane" is a strange linguistic feature unique to Syria, as it sometimes means "military helicopter" or "military airplane," but helicopters have often been used to supply this besieged air base at the intersection of Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. Furthermore, several sources are posting this video:

Click to read more ...

EA Video: A 4-Step Animated Guide --- Creating the Al Qa'eda Threat

---

Hardly a day goes by without an "expert" declaration about the global spectre of Al Qa'eda.

On Sunday Peter Bergen and CNN gave a shout-out to the "Al Qa'eda brand" --- you know, a terrorist version of McDonald's ("I'm Bombin' It") or Nike ("Just Jihad It"). "Analysts" and media maintained the reduction of the Syrian conflict as one in which "self-professed Al Qa'eda affiliates" were taking over and threatening Western interests --- offering little of substance in their portrayal of the situation on the ground and the factions in the Syrian insurgency.

But how can you become one of these "experts", out-Bergening the Bergens to get your own segment on CNN? Here's our handy 4-step guide:

1. Find a Really Catchy Title
2. Create a Catchy Brand
3. Tie It to the Notion of the "Enemy"
4. Apply It to Any Situation in the World

Syria Today: Turkey Blames Damascus for Car Bombs That Kill 43

Aftermath of Saturday's car bombs in Reyhanli in Turkey

See also Syria Opinion: How to Meet the Challenge of Covering Conflict
Saturday's Syria Today: Russia Holds Off US and British Political Approach

---

1755 GMT: Humanitarian Aid

The European Commission has announced an additional 65 million Euros ($84 million) in aid for refugees and internally displaced Syrians, warning the crisis is "already at breaking point".

The announcement came as humanitarian aid commissioner Kristalina Georgieva visited the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan.

"The more atrocities and fighting go on in Syria, the more people run. There are no indications whatsoever that this...is going to go down," Georgieva said after the visit.

She continued, "We have to dig deep into our pockets (to help the Syrians) because the worst is yet to come. The crisis is beyond humanitarian response. We need to do more and we need to do more in a better way."

The UN humanitarian office has put the number of refugees at 1.4 million and displaced persons at 4.25 million --- together, the figures are about one-quarter of Syria's 22.5 million.

Click to read more ...