Syria Feature: How "Independent Analysts" Are Breaking the Stories of the Conflict

Britain's Channel 4 profiles EA Worldview's James Miller and other independent analysts on Syria

---

On Saturday, news emerged of a new kind of weapon --- a 12-tube rocket launcher with a range of 8.5 to 13 kilometrees (5.5 to 8 miles) --- that has made it to the front lines of the Syrian conflict.

The news, significant in itself, is the latest development in the wider, important story of how Syrian insurgents are using foreign-supplied Croatian arms to make crucial gains against President Assad's troops.

These advances since January could even prove to be the tipping point in the two-year insurgency.

There may be another tipping point: by developing methods to gather information and analyze open-source intelligence, an emerging group of "independent analysts" are breaking news stories far ahead of any mainstream outlet.

And in doing so, they are changing the international conversation about Syria.

Click to read more ...

Syria Audio Feature: "Foreign Fighters and the Free Syrian Army" --- EA's James Miller with Monocle 24

AFP with insurgents in Aleppo on Monday

---

James Miller spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily last night about the state of the insurgency in Syria, as the Free Syrian Army declares that it has moved its command inside the country and the regime claims it is facing 5000 foreign fighters.

Miller opens, "Foreign fighters are still a small percentage of the insurgency, but the number is quickly growing," before explaining the shifting patterns of the conflict.

And will the Free Syrian Army achieve a unified command? "Not any time soon."

To get to the discussion, open The Daily homepage, click on the programme for 24/9, and go to the 1:04.42 mark.

Syria Feature: US Officials --- No Hope for Cease-fire So "Time To Consider a New Approach"

Last Tuesday, EA's James Miller, in "Sorting Out The Truth Beyond Car Bombs and Ceasefires", wrote bluntly, "This practice is perpetrating the myth that there is a solution to the crisis beyond either intervening or letting Syria decay into civil war. There isn't. Syria is ugly, and it won't get any prettier any time soon." The Friday before that, we asked --- drawing from Miller and Josh Rogin of "The Cable" blog of Foreign Policy --- "Is the US Preparing for Intervention?"

Putting 2 and 2 together, we think "4" might be in this story put out by US officials through The Washington Post on Sunday: the cease-fire will not take hold so it is "time to consider a new approach".

Click to read more ...

Syria Snap Analysis: Is the US Preparing for Intervention?

James Miller in EA's Live Coverage, 19 April:

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke to the House Armed Services Committee today, which is where Dempsey said that the US was militarily capable of intervening in Syria (see last update). Panetta also said that "the situation is of grave consequence to the Syrian people."

Josh Rogin, "The Cable", Foreign Policy, 26 April:

Two top Obama administration officials said today that the diplomatic initiative to end the violence in Syria, led by U.N. Special Envoy Kofi Annan "is failing."

Under intense questioning during Thursday's Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, both Kathleen Hicks, the current deputy under secretary of defense for policy, and Derek Chollet, National Security Council senior director for strategy, said that the Annan plan was headed toward collapse and that new options for confronting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were being prepared.

Click to read more ...

James Miller speaks to Al Jazeera about the Free Syrian Army

See Also, Syria, Bahrain (and Beyond) Live Coverage: Conflict In the Capital?
Syria Video Feature: How Can You Get News Out of the Country? (Al Jazeera English)

---

EA Worldview's US Editor James Miller was interviewed by Al Jazeera's Meenakshi Ravi for an episode of The Listening Post. The topic was the Free Syrian Army's emergence into media and propaganda, and the realities of covering the crisis in Syria.

Other guests included Foreign Policy editor David Kenner, Al Jazeera correspondent Anita McNaught, and author Marwan Kraidy.

Also featured in the programme is a story about the media in Bahrain, and a feature on a video game that simulates war reporting.

Iran Video and Analysis: 4-Point Guide to a Train-Wreck Discussion with Top Official Mohammad Javad Larijani

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

---

This interview is a perfect display of the problem with dialogue between the US --- the government, the media, and the "experts" --- and the Iranian regime. The representatives of the regime constantly use disinformation, hyperbole, and insults against their critics. Larijani accuses the US of being the single largest state-sponsor of terrorism in the world, and denies not only the existence of a militarised nuclear program but all other arguments made by the rest of the panel. A "mockery of the situation," as the host Mika Brzezinski,far from a neutral moderator, puts it.

The "experts" --- Richard Haass is an ideal example --- see that as a sure sign that the regime is not serious about dialogue and is a non-rational actor that is a dangerous enemy to the US and the region.

Click to read more ...

Syria Audio Special: How Does This End?

"What we haven't seen yet is large-scale political defection. But those who have defected have talked about the fact that there are many others who are willing to defect, who are beginning to question whether or not Assad can survive this. And, you know, the economic impact is just incredible on the country. And it's really only a matter of time before the defectors or before more leaders decide to jump ship on Assad."

Click to read more ...

Syria, Bahrain, Yemen (and Beyond) LiveBlog: A Libyan-Style Civil War?

2045 GMT: In Bahrain, five leading opposition parties have announced a mass rally on Friday, begining at 4:30 p.m. local time, " We Demand Democracy":

EA sources report demonstrations across the country tonight including Muhaza, Sufala, Wadian, Sanabis, Aldaih, Karbabad, Dar-Khulaib, Alhamalah, Barbar, Buri, and Al Eker. A photo from Sanabis this evening:

And video from Dar-Khulaib:

Claimed footage last night of a clash in Sufala village in Sitra:

Click to read more ...

US Politics & Economy: Scott Lucas on the BBC About the Debt Crisis

Complementing James Miller's summary of the battle in Washington over the Federal Government's debt, with the prospect of a US default next week, I was in a discussion on BBC Radio 2 this lunchtime about the political and economic causes of the problem and on the question, "Does this mean America is on its knees and finished as a superpower?"

(The answer to the question is easy, "That is the wrong way to look at the current situation." Explaining the causes is a lot more complex, although James Miller's "Start with the tax cuts", and the Government spending binge of the last decade is a good beginning.)

The discussion begins just before the 1:11.00 mark. My contribution is from 1:20.45.

And later in the afternoon, I had the chance on BBC West Midlands to offer an introduction to the "debt ceiling", the politics of the crisis, and the question, "Does it really matter if the US defaults next week?"

The chat starts just after the 1:41.30 mark.

Iran Analysis: Can the Opposition Challenge the Regime? (Eshraghi v. Lucas)

Eshraghi: "As people cast around for the root cause of Iran's woes, no one is offering a convincing solution. Opposition activity is confined to reacting post factum to what the regime does."

Lucas: "The public revival through the marches is merely the sign that the opposition is still alive. The challenge will be to turn that into plans and objectives for change. That is a daunting challenge, but --- contrary to Esraghi's wayward pronouncement, 'Opposition activity is confined...to what the regime does' --- it is being pursued."

Click to read more ...