The Latest from Iran (11 April): Checking In

Pictured: Reformist leader Feizollah Arab Sorkhi (pictured) has returned to Evin Prison after his temporary release for Iranian New Year.

1700 GMT: Abuse Watch. A Street Journalist posts Bahareh Maghami's account of her rape in prison.

Iran: A List of 107 Killed in Post-Election Violence
Iran: The Green Movement in Transition (Rafat)
The Latest from Iran (10 April): Look Over There!

1630 GMT: The Inflation Game --- Pick a Number. The Iranian Government's attempt to ease economic worries by declaring a halving of inflation to 10.8% is coming under more pressure. Amidst evidence of Parliament's scepticism (see morning update), the International Monetary Fund has announced that Iran's 2009-2010 inflation rate was 30%.


1620 GMT: Selling State Industries. The great redistribution of state firms continues: reports claim 45% of the Damavand power plant has been given to the controversial "charitable trust" Bonyade Shahid.

1415 GMT: Corruption. MP Elyas Naderan, who is leading the allegations of corruption against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, is not letting up despite Government pressure on him. He has declared in an interview that Rahimi's deeds are graver than those of Ali Kordan, the Minister of Interior forced to resign over false claims of a doctorate from Oxford University, and of businessman Shahram Jazayeri.

1145 GMT: Press Resurrection. The "moderate" daily newspaper Shargh has reappeared after a three-year ban.

1110 GMT: More Money Questions. Iran Green Voice, drawing from Iranian Labor News Agency, is claiming that Iran's audit commission is enquiring about 631 possible errors in the 2007-2008 budget, with millions of dollars of oil money missing from the Treasury.

Khabar Online and DayPress raises further questions about "aberrations" in the 2008-2009 budget and oil revenues.

1050 GMT: The Post-Election Dead. We have posted, from Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau, a list of 107 people killed in post-election violence.
1045 GMT: Nuke-Nuke-Nuke. I think this pattern is pretty well set: the US Nuclear Posture Review will be the script for most Iranian political threatre this week. The Supreme Leader has now taken over the lead role, telling senior members of the military:

[Obama] has implicitly threatened Iranians with nuclear weapons. These comments are very strange and the world should not ignore them because in the 21st century... the head of a state is threatening a nuclear attack. The US president's statements are disgraceful. Such comments harm US and they mean that the US government is wicked and unreliable.

1005 GMT: Nuclear Postures. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has strongly criticised Washington's position on Iran's nuclear programe. Attacking the Nuclear Posture Review, released this week by the Obama Administration, Larijani told the Majlis:

The US has announced it will not use nuclear weapons except in extraordinary situations. It has also pledged not to use atomic bombs against NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] members, apart from Iran and North Korea. And they call this a "new" nuclear arms strategy. Just take a look at how many contradictory issues are embedded in this policy. The term "extraordinary situation" can always be used to justify a US nuclear attack.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "We will officially present our complaints to the United Nations about these kinds of threats," with a declaration signed by 255 of 290 members of the Majlis.

1000 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Rah-e-Sabz carries a statement from Ayatollah Dastgheib, who says that the ruling authorities slander and arrest even as they pretend to be pious. Thus, Dastgheib argues, the principle of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is violated.

0935 GMT: The Subsidy Battle. The dispute between Parliament and President on economic plans continues to dominate political news.

An interesting twist as the Government has asked the Majlis not to publish inflation data. Given that the Central Bank of Iran declared earlier this month that the inflation rate had halved to 10.8%, why would the Government be so shy? Could it be that the official rate is not telling the entire story?

High-profile critic Government Elyas Naderan, who is also the central figure claiming corruption by First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, has debated another Vice President, Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini, at Imam Sadegh University.

 MP Mohammad Hossein Farhangi has said that the Government should not ask for amendments in the legislation approved by the Parliament.

0845 GMT: Shutting Down Politics. Parleman News claims that reformist visitors to Mir Hossein Moussavi have been threatened that they could be banned in the next elections.

0840 GMT: Closing the Press. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi announced that the appeal to lift the ban on the reformist publication Etemaad has been declined.

0830 GMT: What Next for Greens? Amidst signs of the reconsideration of the opposition strategy and tactics, Ali Mazrouee asks, "What is the nature of the Green Movement?"

0815 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that workers of the Hamid China factory, due for closure, are rallying today to protest that they have not been paid wages and benefits for almost two years.

750 GMT: Thanks to Arshama for passing on yesterday's updates as I was in transit --- Saturday's LiveBlog has now been updated. Now to today.....

It may be a different day, but it's still the old, reliable diversions. Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi, now a daily source for cheap quotes on how Iran will face down and vanquish any Western aggression, has declared that Tehran has begun mass-producing a new medium-range anti-aircraft missile. Mersad "can destroy modern planes in low and medium altitudes".

Far more interesting spin comes on the Qom front.  Reformist cleric and journalist Mohammad Javad Akbarin, claims several top clerics refused to meet President Ahmadinejad. Akbarin asserted that only one top cleric agreed to meet Ahmadinejad, and he "spent most of the meeting criticizing Ahmadinejad".

A formal photographs at the time of the visit showed Ahmadinejad with several clerics, although, as EA's Mr Verde analysed, there was no confirmation of a Presidential meeting with a Grand Ayatollah, only with three senior clerics who are his fervent supporters.

Comments

[M. Ali]

I do not know anyone in VOA, but most Iranians, normal every day Iranians, ARE NOT for increased sanctions. Everyone wants sanctions to be removed.

Since I have come to live in Tehran, sanctions have been a constant, everyday annoyance for me. Sometimes I go online to download a free software from a US-based site and bam, there is a message on the site not allowing me to download because the site does not allow downloaders from iran to download it.

Megan, what I stand for is NOT massive sanctions and military strikes on the Iranian people, so Iranian-Expatriates like you can walk in gracefully after the massive chaos and destruction, and take some nice cushion political job.

What's your beef against the IRA? Did the IRA confiscate your family's land and wealth amassed during Shah's time? Nothing in your anger seems to indicate any desire to help the Iranian people, its obvious that your issue is a personal vendetta. Iran has had more than enough of people like you during the last decades, we really don't need any more.

[danial]

@Megan...

Assuming the UN does sanction Iran, and crippling them they way some "experts" say...are you sure that the sanctions would be undone once a new government is in place without robbing the country of its sovereignty and forcing the Iranians to abandon their national interests?

Remember the same people who were involved in the 1953 coup are still prominent players in American politics. Iran's own allies, China and Brazil; were they to see an opportunity to use sanctions as a bargaining tool to satisfy their national interests, they would go for it. States who claimed to help the Iranians would demand compensation with interest if you get what I mean.

Leadership is what is needed to summon the people, not torture. Iranians are not stupid, they are the ones that reignited the reformist movement.

[Barry]

@Daniel

"Remember the same people who were involved in the 1953 coup are still prominent players in American politics. "

Your paranoia knows no bounds. 1953 was 57 years ago. Anybody who was capable of pulling any strings of power 57 years ago - is now either dead or close to it.

While this kind of paranoia continues In Iran, it is doomed to continue it's present course in history

Barry

[Megan]

M. Ali,

No, my family did not lose any land and had nothing to be confiscated. Sorry, if I do not fit into your stereotype.

Do not worry, I am not planning to come and get a nice cushion political job in Iran. I am doing pretty well where I am; I have a profession and recognition IR thugs can only dream about. What is my beef with IR? The same beef as any educated and capable woman would have with IR. I assume you are not a woman and if you are you do not fall in that category otherwise you would not ask such an obvious question.

Also note unlike you I do not call the mafia regime there Islamic Republic of Iran or IRI. I call it Islamic Republic, IR. I refuse to associate those thugs with Iran. They are enemies of Iran. Now who has more national pride?

As with your little headache for not being able to download software, tell that to parents of those whose young sons and daughters have been murdered by thugs you support and see what they say you can do with your little problem. Furthermore, get IRG thugs to write you codes. Ahmadi claimed the other day Islamic Republic was the most advanced in science and technology in the world. Ask him to invest some of that know how to design software for you.

People are dying in jail and you complain about not being able to download software because of sanctions? You do not fail to amuse me.

[danial]

@Barry...

1. Its not paranoia, its mistrust
2. When I say people, I mean people with a similar mindset

"While this kind of paranoia continues In Iran, it is doomed to continue it’s present course in history"

any nation that suffers from foreign intervention would become paranoid wouldn't you say?

[Catherine]

RE 1700 GMT: Abuse Watch.

More - this time on the juvenile offender front.
Interview with 19 Year Old Sentenced to Execution

Saber has been anxiously expecting the gallows since he was 15 years old, when he allegedly killed a man in a street fight. His death sentence has been upheld, and at the age of 16, he was transferred from the Rehabilitation Centre (for juvenile offenders) to Rajai Shahr prison located in Karaj (a suburb of Tehran).

*[Translator's note: Iran executes juvenile offenders after they reach the age of 18. In fact, this practice is in violation of the UN's Convention on the Rights of the Child, to which Iran is a signatory. According to the Convention (section 37), death sentences should not be issued and/or carried out for crimes committed under the age of 18.]

http://persian2english.com/?p=9361

[Catherine]

RE 1620 GMT: Selling State Industries.
Iran Khodro, Saipa to be privatized: official
Shares of the two major Iranian carmakers, Iran Khodro and Saipa, are to be offered to the public by June 20, the Iranian Privatization Organization deputy director announced here on Sunday.
Source: Mehr News Agency,
http://www.payvand.com/news/10/apr/1090.html

[Catherine]

Convicted/Charged for Wearing Green:

A couple of days ago I posted a link to this report on radio Zamaneh:
Iranian detainees convicted based on "flimsy" evidence
A number of Iranian post-election detainees are being convicted and sentenced based on such "flimsy" evidence as “a green ribbon or bracelet,” announced a defence attorney for several of these cases.
http://www.zamaaneh.com/enzam/2010/04/iranian-detainees-convict.html

Well have a look at what film director Jafar Panahi is being charged with:
Tahereh Saeedi in Interview with Rooz
Panahi’s Charge: Not Renouncing, and Wearing Green Scarf
The prominent filmmaker’s wife said that making a film without a permit and wearing a green scarf at the Montreal World Film Festival are among her husband’s charges.
http://www.roozonline.com/english/news/newsitem/article/2010/april/11//panahis-charge-not-renouncing-and-wearing-green-scarf.html

[Madali]

Megan, unfortunately, no matter how much you spit and rant, the issue is that most Iranians are not calling for blood. They, like people from many other countries, want to have an improved lifestyle, but they are not calling for revolution. The events in the last few months showed that majority of Iranians did not want to invest heavily in opposing the government.

And the high percentage of voter turn out shows that most Iranians still believe in the system. A very high number of the population voted for people that are part of the system.

Which, by the way, in a complex government like Iran, a large people are part of the government. You talk in a way as if the Iranians in the government are a different breed from the rest of the Iranians, which is not true. Iranians from all parts of ethnical and social background are part of the Iranian system.

Whether you want to disassociate the government with Iran or if you want to redefine what the GM means is your prerogative. However, the majority of the people both view IR and GM differently than you do. I have no issue with you holding any view you want, but I do draw a line when you act like you are speaking on behalf of the Iranians.

The reason I mentioned the software-sanctions was to not to whine (a little proxy software solves that), but to show that sanctions are a source of discomfort, whether small or big, to every aspect of an Iranian person's life. For me it is a minor grievance, that just serves as a reminder that I don't like the effect of the sanctions on my personal life. Now take this and multiply it with millions of Iranians and now again multiply it with the bigger effects the sanctions can have than a mere download restriction (not getting essential items, bad for business, etc, etc) and you have a negative impact on the IRANIAN PEOPLE. Now take that again and multiply it with whatever crazy recommendations you have on furthur increasing the sanctions.

Like I said before, with Iranians like you...

[Megan]

Danial,

I agree with Barry. It is time we move on and do not keep dragging the 1953 corpse out of the grave of history.

Why do you think sanctions would not be lifted after a new government is in place? Why do you think like Ahmadinejad and Khamenei that everybody is out to get us?

Islamic Republic with the help of Russian and Chinese has robbed Iran of it national sovereignty. Take a look at list of industries in Iran that have been phased out thanks to China. China and Russia are playing IR like a violin.

Effective leadership is what Green Movement does not have. So we have to work with what we have.

[ange paris]

Catherine post 30
I hope people in Iran are going to boycott all the privatizations; Regime needs money to run the country, people have to prevent that !

[M.Ali]

Previous entry was made by me under the name "Madali".

And to backup Danial's comment to Barry:

Barry, Danial is right. As Mulder said, Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean they're not out to get you.

[M.Ali]

At least China is willing to do business with Iran without placing a military base in Tehran.

[Megan]

Madali is the same person as M. Ali.

[M.Ali]

I know, I said it myself in the post before yours, I wasnt trying to be decietful.

[ange paris]

Madali, M. ali and Antarian are the same person; who you are, learn, that in democracy, all people can freely express their thoughts without being insulted all time and we are going to have this democracy as soon as ! and never forget, ma bishomarim V

[Artanian]

Megan I must apologize if I came off as rude, tho I dispute the accusation of my post being uncivil; admittedly the use of the word lunatic as well as imbecile were uncalled for.

Also I took your criticizing the people who are against sanctions or military intervention of supporting of military action against Iran, considering your enthusiasm for crippling sanctions, it seemed as if you have similar belief in regards to military intervention, perhaps I was wrong on that point as well.

However you completely failed to argue your point of view in regards to my other parts of the posts. Crippling sanctions had no effect on the regimes of Iraq while Saddam was in rule or today in North Kore other than make the ordinary people suffer.
Also you didn't say why you feel the need to bring into question whether people are for freedom in Iran or if they are part of the green movement or not, when you disagree with their point of view.

[Catherine]

If You Believe That You'll Beleve Anything.

Khatami, Sadouqi grave desecrators arrested

Asr Iran | April 10, 2010

Four people have been arrested in connection with the desecration of the graves in Yazd. Sources claimed that the acts of desecration were intended to revive the opposition movement.

"This move was completely organized and aimed at launching psychological warfare in order to revive the sedition movement of 2009 (1388)," Fars quoted an unnamed source as saying.

Two of the four detainees were reported to be illegal immigrants from neighboring countries and the other two convicted "thugs" from Kerman Province, the report alleged.

Pro-Green media outlets charged that those who splashed the graves of Ayatollahs Rouhollah Khatami and Mohammad Sadouqi belonged to the camp of their critics. But Fars News Agency said that "the detained individual has a political record and was a Reformist activist during last year's election.

"In his initial confession, he confessed to having cooperated with this political movement during the election and in the incidents following the election. He stressed that in order to carry out his mission he had cooperated with the Reformist figures of the province."

According to Fars, this individual has also confessed to having received money to carry out this mission.

The other detainees also allegedly confessed to having received money for their services and of having intended to carry out similar acts against the graves of other revolutionary figures. According to Fars, the suspects confessed to receiving orders from Tehran via email and telephone.
http://tinyurl.com/y7shztb (in Persian)
(Found on Tehran Bureau Press Roundup)

[Megan]

Madali or M. Ali,

With the term "most Iranians" I am sure you are referring to those in your circle.

Ask the regime to call off his dogs from streets of Iran and you shall see where most Iranians stand. That is why the regime you support beat, arrested, ran them over or shot them dead in the streets. Better yet have teams of international observers in and then put the question of whether they want Islamic Republic or not on the ballot. Then we will see who is wrong. What is it that IR is afraid of?

[Catherine]

RE post 34 "Take a look at list of industries in Iran that have been phased out thanks to China. China and Russia are playing IR like a violin."

+++++++++++

A flood of Chinese replicas of Persian carpets, handicrafts and other items on the Iranian market has reportedly sent shock waves throughout the country.

"Based on eyewitness reports from handicrafts markets in Isfahan, many of the handicrafts of this city have been replicated and imported from China and have reached a point where merchants are selling these replicated handicrafts," according to Iran Eqtesad.

These merchants say that the low cost of these replicas are the main reason for selling them. They say that these replicas are so close to the original items that many buyers cannot tell the difference between them.

Source Tabnak: http://www.tabnak.ir/fa/pages/?cid=92924 (in Persian)
(Found on Tehran Bureau Press Roundup)

[Mike Dunn]

Artanian, I've just noticed your earlier comment and removed a part of it but thanks for also apologising.

We're very happy for readers to discuss and debate in the comments but I would ask you, Megan and everyone else to remember that these debates should be about the issues, not personal attacks.

[Scott Lucas]

Jack,

Thanks --- I'll look for the Brooks clip.

Scott

[M.Ali]

Megan, I would hope that a situation is created where legal protests can be made within the guidelines of the law. However, I also understand the government's concern, because giving free reign to the people would make it easy for internal and external enemies, with their own agendas, to incite the population to create discontent and instability in the country, where irregarless who "wins", the people usually lose. You can see such examples in countries throughout the world.

In regards to the second point, there is absolutely no reason why the IRA needs to hold an international-observed election. What happens if they do, do we again ask for another referrundam in a few years just because another Megan is unhappy? Do we have regular refferundams every few years? For every country in the world, constant changing the government?

[pessimist]

This is an endless question, and I don't know myself what to think.

Maybe we can simply list the advantages and disadvantages. Firstly, I think Megan is right in that if there are sanctions, they have to be thorough and include diplomatic and financial quarantine.

Now, supposing this happened by some or most western countries. What could be the reaction ? The regime has shown it's cruelty, and ability to clamp down on any dissidence. No doubt they would continue and in their paranoia would become a bunker, just like N. Corea. The only people to have enough to eat and some petrol would be the military and security factions.
Sanctions on Cuba and N. Corea have not changed the regimes and have made life miserable for the population. Censorship will increase and propaganda will worsen to make people support the regime through hatred for the enemies.

The only advantage would be if despite all the measures, the population would manage to revolt. However, I'm quite pessimist because I think it's already too late, if it didn't happen last June, and after, it was also because the regime had already begun organizing the rev guards and basij to counter wide domestic unrest. They also got up to date with the latest medias.

And, if that article about why people hesitate to join protests is true, it shows that people might rather avoid trouble and continue living in a 'split' society, than end up being flogged and spending years in jail for nothing more than an email.

I would also like to remind people that apart from Irak, there haven't been any major interference recently in a country because of human rights violations. (and the reason for the invasion of Irak is still open). Nobody cared about the Afghans under the Taliban until the 9/11, when it became a security issue. Nobody has ever thought about invading N. Corea, nor even Cuba. And as for years of sanctions on Irak, it only caused huge misery and deaths. And as for many other nations like in Africa, (millions dead in Congo), nobody is thinking of changing their regimes and who cares about their massacres ?

Even if foreign policy has changed since the cold war, to my mind, I don't recall any intervention for human rights violations and although some leaders might make some seemingly supportive statements, they are not going to get involved. The only talk about Iran is nuclear, and it's mostly posturing.

Now, to imagine the opposite, no sanctions but free trade. It doesn't mean that the leaders have to get the red carpet, there can still be a political distance. But, as with Irak previously, what might have happened if Iran had free trade ? In both countries there were/are a sizeable 'westernized' middle class and educated youth. That to me is enough to ensure an inner pressure to keep things progressing.

There is no guarantee that a dictatorship will change only because of wealth, but with Iran and Irak, compared to the gulf arab muslim countries, they have different histories and cultures. There is every hope that with opening up, the population itself would force change naturally. The present president would soon seem outdated and would hardly stand the mockery that would be sent over the waves right to the living room of the poorest. Because with no sanctions, the poorest might be less poor and could afford computors and mobile phones, as foreign companies would contribute to creating networks and structures.

Then, what do other countries do to 'punish' nasty regimes ? They have to show their discontent in some form, and sanctions for the moment seem to be the only way. Up to others to find another way.

[Megan]

Artanian,

Apology accepted.

Sanctions worked in South Africa.

Iran and Iraq are entirely different. Iranians have shown us that they are more than ready to do away with the system of government that has stripped them from their basic rights. Iranians cried “Obama, Obama, Ya Ba Ouna Ya Ba Ma” (Obama you are either with the regime or with us). They asked us to do something.

Sanctions targeted for IR is different in nature than those used in Iraq. Also keep in mind that UN not only failed to monitor the implementation of sanctions in Iraq but the son of a UN official was on the take on the oil for food sanction.

Communications technology is different now than it was in the 90’s and Iranians know how to let the world know if sanctions are working.

I am not suggesting that sanctions will be infallible. I just know that we owe it to Iranian people and to ourselves to manage this runaway train called IR before it is too late. A “do nothing” approach is not an option. We should not poke holes at any proposal put forward before we know its nature. If anybody has any better idea how to save Iranians from an abusive regime that is armed to the hill and how to save Middle East and humanity from the mad men who hold power in Islamic Republic he/she better comes forward and share it with the policy makers. We tried diplomatic talk for over 15 years and it did not work.