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Entries in 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (3)

Sunday
Apr112010

The Latest from Iran (11 April): Checking In

Pictured: Reformist leader Feizollah Arab Sorkhi (pictured) has returned to Evin Prison after his temporary release for Iranian New Year.


1700 GMT: Abuse Watch. A Street Journalist posts Bahareh Maghami's account of her rape in prison.

Iran: A List of 107 Killed in Post-Election Violence
Iran: The Green Movement in Transition (Rafat)

The Latest from Iran (10 April): Look Over There!


1630 GMT: The Inflation Game --- Pick a Number. The Iranian Government's attempt to ease economic worries by declaring a halving of inflation to 10.8% is coming under more pressure. Amidst evidence of Parliament's scepticism (see morning update), the International Monetary Fund has announced that Iran's 2009-2010 inflation rate was 30%.


1620 GMT: Selling State Industries. The great redistribution of state firms continues: reports claim 45% of the Damavand power plant has been given to the controversial "charitable trust" Bonyade Shahid.

1415 GMT: Corruption. MP Elyas Naderan, who is leading the allegations of corruption against First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, is not letting up despite Government pressure on him. He has declared in an interview that Rahimi's deeds are graver than those of Ali Kordan, the Minister of Interior forced to resign over false claims of a doctorate from Oxford University, and of businessman Shahram Jazayeri.

1145 GMT: Press Resurrection. The "moderate" daily newspaper Shargh has reappeared after a three-year ban.

1110 GMT: More Money Questions. Iran Green Voice, drawing from Iranian Labor News Agency, is claiming that Iran's audit commission is enquiring about 631 possible errors in the 2007-2008 budget, with millions of dollars of oil money missing from the Treasury.

Khabar Online and DayPress raises further questions about "aberrations" in the 2008-2009 budget and oil revenues.

1050 GMT: The Post-Election Dead. We have posted, from Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau, a list of 107 people killed in post-election violence.
1045 GMT: Nuke-Nuke-Nuke. I think this pattern is pretty well set: the US Nuclear Posture Review will be the script for most Iranian political threatre this week. The Supreme Leader has now taken over the lead role, telling senior members of the military:
[Obama] has implicitly threatened Iranians with nuclear weapons. These comments are very strange and the world should not ignore them because in the 21st century... the head of a state is threatening a nuclear attack. The US president's statements are disgraceful. Such comments harm US and they mean that the US government is wicked and unreliable.

1005 GMT: Nuclear Postures. Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has strongly criticised Washington's position on Iran's nuclear programe. Attacking the Nuclear Posture Review, released this week by the Obama Administration, Larijani told the Majlis:
The US has announced it will not use nuclear weapons except in extraordinary situations. It has also pledged not to use atomic bombs against NPT [Non-Proliferation Treaty] members, apart from Iran and North Korea. And they call this a "new" nuclear arms strategy. Just take a look at how many contradictory issues are embedded in this policy. The term "extraordinary situation" can always be used to justify a US nuclear attack.

An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said, "We will officially present our complaints to the United Nations about these kinds of threats," with a declaration signed by 255 of 290 members of the Majlis.

1000 GMT: Clerical Intervention. Rah-e-Sabz carries a statement from Ayatollah Dastgheib, who says that the ruling authorities slander and arrest even as they pretend to be pious. Thus, Dastgheib argues, the principle of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority) is violated.

0935 GMT: The Subsidy Battle. The dispute between Parliament and President on economic plans continues to dominate political news.

An interesting twist as the Government has asked the Majlis not to publish inflation data. Given that the Central Bank of Iran declared earlier this month that the inflation rate had halved to 10.8%, why would the Government be so shy? Could it be that the official rate is not telling the entire story?

High-profile critic Government Elyas Naderan, who is also the central figure claiming corruption by First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, has debated another Vice President, Mohammad Reza Mirtajoddini, at Imam Sadegh University.

 MP Mohammad Hossein Farhangi has said that the Government should not ask for amendments in the legislation approved by the Parliament.

0845 GMT: Shutting Down Politics. Parleman News claims that reformist visitors to Mir Hossein Moussavi have been threatened that they could be banned in the next elections.

0840 GMT: Closing the Press. Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi announced that the appeal to lift the ban on the reformist publication Etemaad has been declined.

0830 GMT: What Next for Greens? Amidst signs of the reconsideration of the opposition strategy and tactics, Ali Mazrouee asks, "What is the nature of the Green Movement?"

0815 GMT: Economy Watch. Iranian Labor News Agency reports that workers of the Hamid China factory, due for closure, are rallying today to protest that they have not been paid wages and benefits for almost two years.

750 GMT: Thanks to Arshama for passing on yesterday's updates as I was in transit --- Saturday's LiveBlog has now been updated. Now to today.....

It may be a different day, but it's still the old, reliable diversions. Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi, now a daily source for cheap quotes on how Iran will face down and vanquish any Western aggression, has declared that Tehran has begun mass-producing a new medium-range anti-aircraft missile. Mersad "can destroy modern planes in low and medium altitudes".

Far more interesting spin comes on the Qom front.  Reformist cleric and journalist Mohammad Javad Akbarin, claims several top clerics refused to meet President Ahmadinejad. Akbarin asserted that only one top cleric agreed to meet Ahmadinejad, and he "spent most of the meeting criticizing Ahmadinejad".

A formal photographs at the time of the visit showed Ahmadinejad with several clerics, although, as EA's Mr Verde analysed, there was no confirmation of a Presidential meeting with a Grand Ayatollah, only with three senior clerics who are his fervent supporters.
Wednesday
Apr072010

The Latest from Iran (7 April): Ahmadinejad's Support?

2120 GMT: How Big is Ahmadinejad's Support? We may have had a quiet day, but there is debate over whether the President has had even quieter ones recently. Here are purported photographs from his speech at Orumiyeh in northwestern Iran:

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In contrast, this is a photograph posted by Fars News of Ahmadinejad in the area today:



1800 GMT: A Very Quiet Day. We've been around, but there hasn't been much to report. One note, however, as we keep an eyes on events in Kyrgyzstan with a view to featuring tomorrow morning. Here's the reaction of the Iran Foreign Ministry, as reported by Press TV:
Iran says it supports the restoration of peace in Kyrgyzstan after anti-government protests left 40 people killed in the country.

Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said Wednesday that Iran "wants the immediate restoration of domestic stability" in Kyrgyzstan and the prevention of the spread of insecurity to this sensitive region of Central Asia.

At least 40 people have been killed and 400 others injured in anti-government unrest in Kyrgyzstan.

1210 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Morteza Alviri, the former Mayor of Tehran, has been given a five-year prison sentence, four of which have been suspended, because of participation in the march of 15 June.

Rah-e-Sabz expresses concern over the status of human rights activist Somayeh Ojaghloo, whom it claims has been in an unknown location for more than a month.

1145 GMT: Ahmadinejad's Oh-So-Calm Response "I'll Break Your Teeth". The Iranian President has responded in a most measured way to Washington's Nuclear Defense Posture Review, issued yesterday:
American materialist politicians, whenever they are beaten by logic, immediately put their finger on the trigger like cowboys. Mr. Obama, you are a newcomer (to politics). Wait until your sweat dries and get some experience. Be careful not to read just any paper put in front of you or repeat any statement recommended. (American officials) bigger than you, more bullying than you, couldn't do a damn thing, let alone you....

I hope these published comments are not true....He (Obama) has threatened with nuclear and chemical weapons those nations which do not submit to the greed of the United States.

Be careful. If you set step in Mr (George W) Bush's path, the nations' response would be the same tooth-breaking one as they gave Bush.

1130 GMT: The Oil Squeeze. According to industry sources, Russian supplier LUKOil is stopping shipments to Iran.

LUKOil, Russia's second-largest oil company, has been sending 250,000 barrels to 500,000 barrels of gasoline every other month. The last shipment was made between 10 and 12 March.

LUKOil's decision follows withdrawals by Royal Dutch Shell, Glencore, & Vitol.

0930 GMT: Detaining the Press. The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that at least 35 journalists were imprisoned in Iran as of 1 April. Another 18 journalists were free on temporary New Year releases and were expected to report back to prison.

CPJ adds, "Many of the incarcerated journalists are under immense physical and psychological pressure to 'confess' to crimes they have not committed, including crimes that could carry the death sentence....Many have also been denied family visits and access to legal counsel. Others have been held without charge for periods far exceeding legal limits."

0900 GMT: In the Universities. Peyke Iran claims 160 students from Sabzevar Teacher's University have been expelled without a formal hearing because of protests.

0845 GMT: Economy Watch. Revolutionary Road reports, from Human Rights Activists News Agency and Iranian Labor News Agency, that "due to lack of raw materials, Metal Factory I of Tehran[one of the largest metal factories in Iran will be shut down and the doors will be closed to all their workers".

0645 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that the Revolutionary Court in Mahallat in central Iran has handed down four prison sentences, three of them suspended, one of 18 months, for Green Movement supporters for "acting against national security". Another supporter remains in detention.

0635 GMT: The B-Word. Ahmad Shirzad of the Islamic Iran Participation Front has said that, as there is no legal or political space for effective involvement, the party should boycott the next elections.

0630 GMT: Must Try Harder. Reflecting on the Supreme Leader's Nowruz call on Iranians to double their efforts to build the country, Hamid Reza Taraghi, a key member of the "conservative" Motalefeh party,  has said capabilities are not being used due to mismanagement.

0600 GMT: One to Watch --- The Corruption Charges. We noted this story yesterday, but given its potential significance, it bears repeating. Member of Parliament Elyas Naderan has alleged that First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi is the head of a large "corruption network".

Talk of corruption and the Ahmadinejad Government is far from new, so what's distinctive here? Well, Naderan is not a reformist or member of the Green opposition: he is a leading conservative voice on Parliament's Economic Committee. And just to note: the report is in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

Rah-e-Sabz offers a summary of the alleged "Fatemi Street" network, insurance fraud, and Rahimi's claimed involvement.

0530 GMT: A quieter day on the reformist/opposition front on Tuesday. There were moments such as Mir Hossein Mousavi's meeting with Feizollah Arab Sorkhi, the senior member of the Islamic Iran Participation Front who is on temporary release from detention.



So this is more of a case of waiting and watching. The significance does not have to be in an immediate action or statement of next steps; rather it is that Monday's meetings took place --- for the first time in this crisis to our knowledge, Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami, Rafsanjani, and reformist MPs all connecting in a series of discussions.
Wednesday
Apr072010

The New US Nuclear Policy in 3 Bullet Points

Your easy-to-read version of the 49-page Nuclear Posture Review, released yesterday by the Obama Administration:

1. If you're not in the Nuclear Club --- Tehran, Pyongyang, we're looking at you --- don't even think about it. Shove off. Don't make us angry.

Still thinking about it? Don't.

2. If you're in the Nuclear Club --- Moscow, Beijing, how ya doin'? --- great to work with you to keep others out. Cold War? What Cold War?

3. Israel? Who is this Israel? (Repeat for Pakistan and India.)

Obama Document: The New US Stance on Nuclear Weapons