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Entries in Jeff Bader (1)

Tuesday
Apr132010

The Latest from Iran (13 April): Getting Beyond the Sideshow

1830 GMT: Economy Watch. It is reported that, in the "slow death" of domestic production because of Chinese-made goods, more than 75% of Iran's imports are now consumer items.

1815 GMT: Rubbing It In. The President's "establishment" opposition are crowing over his supposed retreat over the subsidy cut and spending proposals: they claim that Ahmadinejad has begged the Parliament to let him have a free hand in implementing the plan.

Iran: Mousavi to Students “Spring is Unstoppable”
The Latest from Iran (12 April): Signals from Mousavi & Rafsanjani?


1800 GMT: The 15 June Dispute. Some Government officials have been saying, rather curiously, that the mass marches of 15 June, three days after the election, had been granted a permit by the authorities.

Morteza Tamaddon, the Governor of Tehran Province, has issued a denial, carried in Khabar Online: there was no permit for the "fitna" (sedition) rally.


1150 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Journalist Emad Bahavar has told his wife that he is still being kept in solitary confinement.

1140 GMT: Labour Watch. More than 50 workers of the Abadan municipality have gone on strike to protest over more than three months of unpaid wages.

1130 GMT: The Latest on Scholarship. Rah-e-Sabz reports that a Government-sponsored conference on "Nuclear Iran" at Elm-o-Sanat University was boycotted. Two university has also expelled two more professors.

1110 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. An Iranian activist is reporting that Abdollah Momeni, a leading member of the student organisation Advar-e Takhim Vahdat, has been summoned to court and rearrested.

Momeni has been out on $800,000 bail. Last week he was a prominent participant in a meeting with Mir Hossein Mousavi.

1040 GMT: Militarising the Judiciary? Rah-e-Sabz is pondering the significance of a General Muhammad Bagher-Zolghadr being nominated as the new cultural, social, and anti-crime deputy of Iran's judiciary.

Last September, Zolghadr outlined the notion of “soft war” in a speech: “In a hard war, the line between you and the enemy is clear, but in a soft war there is nothing so solid. The enemy is everywhere.”

1030 GMT: Handing Out Justice. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, has assured a Parliamentary commission that, "if culpable, even my relatives would be persecuted".

I don't think this means that Ali Larijani should watch his back. Instead, Sadegh Larijani is trying to fend off growing pressure for the prosecution of First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi over corruption allegations.

1025 GMT: The Battle Within. While we wait for confirmation of the reports, in Press TV (see 1010 GMT) and Khabar Online, that the President has backed down in the fight over the subsidy plan, more signs that all is not well within the dominant "principlist" faction:
As the members of the Principalist fraction of Iranian Parliament Majlis have expressed different views on the actions taken by the faction’s presidium, Majlis speaker Ali Larijani is to settle their dispute.

....Mohammad Ali Bozorgvari a member of the Principalist fraction of the Parliament delivered a speech last week blasting the members of fraction's presidium and Larijani in particular. He asked them to give clear answers to those criticisms.

Significantly, the report is in the pro-Larijani Khabar Online.

1015 GMT: When Sideshows Get Silly. Here is one reason why we were somewhat dismissive of press coverage of the first day of the Obama nuclear summit (see 0850 GMT), which converged on the line that China was ready to back a US-led sanctions resolution in the UN. For months, Beijing has played the cautious game of appeasing American sentiments by saying, Yes, We'll Talk, while in complementary statements saying, No, We Don't Do Anything Drastic.

So, hours after reporters fed by US officials were declaring Washiington-Beijing unity on the sanctions path, this from the Chinese Foreign Ministry: "We believe that the Security Council's relevant actions should be conducive to easing the situation and conducive to promoting a fitting solution to the Iranian nuclear issue through dialogue and negotiations."

Bless 'em, Reuters are still trying to wedge that tactically convoluted statement into their Monday story-line that All is Going Well: "[The] comments appeared to leave scant doubt that Beijing accepts that fresh Security Council action over Iran is coming, even if China wants room to negotiate over the sanctions proposed by Western powers."

1010 GMT: A Presidential Subsidy Climbdown? Rooz Online offers a lengthy analysis, "Continuation of Conflict Dangerous", but Press TV may have put up the signal that the battle is ending with a Parliamentary victory.

The website reports that, at the start of the Majlis session today, Deputy Speaker Mohammad Hossein Abu Torabi announced, "In a meeting with a group of Iranian MPs, the President has agreed to facilitate the implementation of the subsidy bill without introducing a complementary bill."

That would seem to indicate that Ahmadinejad has given up his attempt to get $40 billion in extra spending from subsidy cuts, rather than the $20 billion authorised by Parliament.

1000 GMT: Now to Important Matters --- Karroubi. The latest statement of Mehdi Karroubi has slipped under the radar, with his meeting last Thursday with the reformist Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution party only emerging on his website yesterday.

Karroubi criticised the recent speech of Ahmadinejad in Azerbaijan: “The language used is by no means appropriate for a president....[It is] an insult to thousands of years of Iranian civilisation.” He dismissed the President's attempt to focus attention on the US v. Iran. American threats against the country “were not something new” and, in the event of any attack, “we will all defend the country”:
Creating enemies is not a big deal. A big deal would be to respond to threats with reason and logic so that the public opinion of nations and [the opinion] of governments are drawn towards the truth such that threats are eliminated and turned into opportunities.

Bringing attention back to the domestic front, Karroubi warned of the consequences if Ahmadinejad continued putting down the Parliament and its importance: “If he degrades the Majlis today, tomorrow, the Parliament will lose all respect,” Denouncing the treatment of political prisoners and arguing for the respect of women's rights, he asserted, “We demand the implementation of the Constitution and stand even more firm than ever before.”

0900 GMT: Economy Watch. On another public-relations, Press TV tries to whip up some hope over Iran's international economic position:
Brazil has opened its doors to Iranian businessmen and welcomes any project, which will help the economy and encourage trade between the two countries.

"Iran is a big country in the region and enjoys considerable capacity to develop cooperation with Brazil," Brazilian Development, Industry and Foreign Trade Minister Miguel Jorge said Monday in Tehran after visiting his Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Mehrabian.

0850 GMT: OK, let's deal with the sideshow now so we can concentrate on other matters later in the day.

The "nuclear summit" in Washington, at least for the mainstream press, turned into an All About Iran festival. Laura Rozen, one of the best journalists for inside information in the US capital, turned herself into a spokesperson for that line: "On summit sidelines, many conversations about Iran". That's courtesy of a "Washington Gulf expert" --- “With the Chinese, Russians and Turks, folks that need to come along on the sanctions track", the show is all about a forthcoming UN resolution --- and National Security Council staffer Jeff Bader: "The President in the meeting made clear the sense of urgency, and the Chinese made clear that they are prepared to work with us." (Bader is also probably the unnamed "US official" in other reports optimistically pointing to China's support.)

Of course Mahmoud Ahmadinejad didn't take this lying down, not with the opportunity to substitute US v. Iran for any internal matters. From his measured description of foreign leaders as "retarded people" to his call on the UN to investigate how the US Government used the 11 September attacks to set up wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, it was a red-letter day for finger-pointing by the Iranian President.

Ahmadinejad's declarations are propped up by Iranian state media by other signs that the sanctions hammer won't fall on Tehran: there is a speech outside the summit from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan that there is "no evidence indicating that Iran's nuclear activities include efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon".