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Sunday
Aug232009

The Latest from Iran (23 August): Is Rafsanjani in An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

NEW The Mousavi Speech to University Professors (23-24 June)
NEW Assessing the Challenge to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei
NEW Government Says, “Overweight? Try Prison”
NEW Video: Protests from Prisons to Football Stadiums (21-22 August)

The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

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1940 GMT: A slow few hours but there is a story that is threatening to take off.

We reported on Friday, via Norooz that "on both 12 July and 15 July, the bodies of tens of protestors were brought in without any identification, secretly and under strict security [to Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery]. Staff were forced to issue compulsory burial licences, and the bodies were interred in Section 302."

A pro-Ahmadinejad member of Parliament has denied the allegation, so Norooz has published the burial permit numbers to encourage MPs who want to investigate the story.

1525 GMT: Twitter reports that blogger Somayeh Tohidlu has been released from detention after more than two months.

1510 GMT: Mr Smith Begs to Differ. Earlier this week, three of our EA correspondents, assisted by our readers, had an important debate on whether Hashemi Rafsanjani was still an important force in post-elections manoeuvres (Part 1 and Part 2). The events of the last 24 hours bear out the significance of that discussion.

One of the correspondents, Mr Smith, now intervenes on my assessment (1200 GMT), both of Rafsanjani's challenge to the system and on President Ahmadinejad's position:
The widespread belief that the Kargozaran party is representing Rafsanjani's political vision (0700 GMT and 1240 GMT) needs further scrutiny. While it is true that it has always been an association of technocrats closely linked to Rafsanjani, it has never been a mouthpiece for Rafsanjani himself, and It has been subject to multiple internal schisms and divisions. Most recently, Gholamhosein Karbaschi and another leader, Mohammad Ali Najafi, sided with Karroubi in the elections while the rest of the leadership went for Mousavi. This explains why the party has now backed Karroubi, but the labelling "Rafsanjani's party" is a bit too far-fetched.

As for my own reading of Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council, while it is true that it represents once again the essence of what he said at Friday prayers on July 17, I feel that it is a bit thin on real criticism to Ahmadinejadm and the news agencies did not do bad in highlighting the remarks pertaining to Khamenei. Karroubi and Mousavi need a slight tilt of Rafsanjani in their favour now more than ever, and he really risks being confined to rhetorical and mild criticisms of Ahmadinejad if he remains unable to impress some sort of change in direction to the current overhaul of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and other pro-Ahmadinjead parties on government.

On this regard,the head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Majlis [Parliament], Alaeddin Borujerdi, has stated that his commission has no objection to Heydar Moslehi [Intelligence], Ahmad Vahidi [Defense] or Manouchehr Mottaki [Foreign Affairs], and is only perturbed by Mostafa Mohammad Najjar at Interior. Borujerdi revealingly let out that Moslehi has "adequate experience in the IRGC Intelligence Division".

Rooz Online has information on the new Intelligence Ministry actively blocking the release of bailed political prisoners in Evin, an ominous sign of things to come.

1445 GMT: Parleman News reports that President Ahmadinejad's Ministerial choices will come up for votes of confidence in Parliament next Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

1340 GMT: More on the Kargozaran Party statement, which may or may not reflect the views of Hashemi Rafsanjani (see 0700 GMT): Friday prayers has become a "tool for issuing threats".

1335 GMT: Assessment or Wish Fulfillment? Kayhan, the "conservative" newspaper, is claiming that, with his statement yesterday, Rafsanjani has taken himself out of the political arena, ruling out any opposition bloc with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

1225 GMT: Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has ordered MPs to receive the evidence of Mehdi Karroubi on abuse of detainees.

1200 GMT: We Don't Want to Say We Told You So But....

Hashemi Rafsanjani's website has posted a summary of the former President's speech to the Expediency Council, and it bears out our interpretation that Rafsanjani has not backed away from a challenge to President Ahmadinejad. Here's the text, as translated by the Neo-Resistance blog:
In presence of the majority of the members, the head of the Expediency Council, again reiterated that the passage through current problems becomes possible by shift from sensationalism into rationalism and emphasized that the media and different tribunes should prove their loyalty to the Supreme Leader's vision of unity in practice.

....At the beginning of the meeting, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani congratulated the start of the holy month of Ramadan, month of feasting with divinity, month of spiritual self reflection and social justice; and expressed hope that in the spiritual light of this divine month should lead to strengthening unity and conciliation. He pointed out the necessity of increased compassion and unity of the officials with the people, to enable passage of the country through its internal and foreign problems and stressed: "Acting with wisdom, principle and due diligence will make this into an attainable and practical objective."

Hashemi Rafsanjani stated that it was essential to respect the Leader's orders and guidance, creating appropriate situations to abide by the constitution beyond group interests, opposing deviation from the law and confronting the law-breakers from either side, replacing the emotional atmosphere with a rational one, and creating an environment for free criticism, reasoning and providing legal and reasonable responses to fair criticism in the current situation. He added, "If these conditions are met, then the impact of the foreign media which is often tainted by colonial intentions will diminish and attention to local news sources will increase and the confrontations on the surface of the society and between different factions will move to media and internal news sources."

In conclusion, the head of the Expediency Council emphasized that the guidelines of the Supreme Leader with respect to recent arrests, compensation for those whose rights have been violated, and punishment of the outlaws open a way through current problems and said: "All, in any position, must abide by these [principles] and those with tribunes, influence, and media have to avoid divisionism, labelling, and controversy and help unity and reconciliation of the society.

Rafsanjani expressed hope that the independent and elite members of the Expediency Council will be the first to walk in this path.

0700 GMT: With the day starting quietly, we have space to pick up on the significant development from yesterday. Contrary to some initial nervous reactions, the politician under pressure is not former President Hashemi Rafsanjani but (as has been the case for weeks) current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Understandably, given there were limited political activity on the first day of Ramadan, Rafsanjani's statement as he chaired the Expediency Council received immediate and intense attention. The problem is that the immediate and intense reaction, even from skilled analysts at places like the National Iranian American Council, was knee-jerk and misguided, picking up only on Rafsanjani's call for all to unite behind the Supreme Leader.

The former President has never called, before or after the election, for defiance of Ayatollah Khamenei or an overturn of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority), and it would be political folly for him to do so now. So of course he is not joining the calls of some senior clerics to consider the invocation of Law 111 against the Supreme Leader's fitness to rule. Indeed, no leading opposition politician --- Mousavi, Karroubi, Khatami --- is joining that call.

The political challenge instead is to President Ahmadinejad and the institutions that he and his allies are trying to control. The rest of Rafsanjani's statement buttressed that challenge, albeit in general terms, with its call for justice, adherence by officials to the Constitution, and guidelines for proper conduct in cases such as detentions. As we noted yesterday, that is not far off Mehdi Karroubi's position; the difference is that Karroubi has been high-profile with his specific call, embodied in his 29 July letter to Rafsanjani, for investigation of the abuses of detainees.

Then the Karzogaran Party, which some have identified as "Rafsanjani's party":
Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system’. These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.

The National Iranian American Council revised its position: Rafsanjani was no longer giving way to the Supreme Leader but was maintaining his challenge to the regime.

Rafsanjani's next substantive step remains to be seen. It is one thing to make a general statement; another to lead or support direct action to undermine or force changes in Government institutions. (That is the real significance of Karroubi's attempt, with his letter, to get Rafsanjani on-side with the inquiry into detainee abuse, with Rafsanjani's initial inaction, and with his subsequent step of sending the letter to both the head of judiciary and the Speaker of Parliament.)

There is more to this story, however, than Rafsanjani. The other signals continue to show an alignment of forces --- "conservative", "principlist", and "reformist" --- pressing against the President. In that context, the shift of the "conservative" newspaper Jomhoori Eslami, is notable, as it stated, "The abuse of detainees is undeniable," and ridiculing the Government's pretext of a foreign-inspired velvet revolution as a "fairy tale".

Coincidentally, Maryam from the excellent Keeping the Change sent us her analysis, which we've posted in a separate entry.

Reader Comments (12)

Someone suggested a Ramadan 'clemency' edict from Khamenei as a possible way out of the captive protestor/trial travesty. Judiciary is quietly and steadily making marks. And cabinet troubles in parliament.

Seems like time passing is the opposition's friend. The chess men are patient. Perhaps the Ahmadenijad/IRGC coalition is in for some more surprises. Thanks for an interesting, informative report -- well done.

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterObserver

Where is Sadegh Larijani in all this?

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commentermahasti

Hi Lucas,

It is one thing to not make any remarks for defiance of Ayatollah Khamenei or an overturn of velayat-e-faqih (ultimate clerical authority), but it is another thing to ask for obideance of the S.L.

Yes it would be political folly for Hashemi to do so now, but not saying something is not the same as doing the opposite. It is not a matter of doing one or the other.

Karoubi, Khatami, Mousavi and so many other have also not joined in in the call for removing the Supreme leader of even asking to defy him, however they have also not asked people to follow him either. They simply have not made any comment on it.

So had Hashemi till yesterday. In other words yes it would be extremley foolish for Hashemi to do so now, but not saying something is not the same as doing the opposite. It is not a matter of doing one or the other.

One thing that comes to mind here is that Hashemi is smart enough to know that he can not fight everyone at the same time so he is deviding the enemy. An attack on both the SL and the Guards would simply unite them in a time where cracks are showing.

A second thing thats comes into mind is which I have not seen any refrence in the analyses so far is the claim being made in what Hashemi is saying. He said;

"Authorities must follow Khamenei's advice also on the issue of political detainees jailed in the aftermath of the election".

and

"The way out of the current situation is commitment to the leader's advice on detainees of recent events and retrieving the rights of those whose rights have been violated," he said.

Now correct me if I am wrong but when exactly did the S.L made these bold statements ? When exactly did the S.L agreed to rapes and murders and demanded justice be done !!??

Hashemi is a very smart politician, he knows that the main danger to him is not the S.L but the Guards, with this remarks he has said two major things

1) The Supreme leader is on our side
2) Guards we are coming after you

What I am still not 100% sure about is what his move after this will be ?
Is he trying to take back all lost power without rocking the boat to much ?

Once that is achieved will he press on for more changes ? or will the alliance with the SL be again a sharing of power and another 25 years of clergy rule where they all consolidate and no major reform or changes will be made?

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Mahasti,

That's a great question. I think that Sadegh Larijani is aligned with conservatives and principlists who want to bring Ahmadinejad in line and even push the President out of power (possibly remaining as a figurehead rather than being forced to leave the office). Those politicians include Ali Larijani and a number of MPs who were upset by the death of the son of Mohsen Rezaei's campaign advisor, Roohul Amini. The touchstone issues are the detentions and possibly the conduct of the trials.

That's why Sadegh's appointment was fiercely opposed by the pro-Ahmadinejad forces --- interesting to read Khamenei's position in pushing through the appointment, despite that resistance.

Put bluntly, the battles over Judiciary and Ministry of Intelligence are two of the important contests --- symbolic and "real" --- between Ahmadinejad (probably backed by IRGC) and his opponents.

S.

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

observer,

you said "Someone suggested a Ramadan ‘clemency’ edict from Khamenei as a possible way out of the captive protestor/trial travesty"

I have no idea whether this is possible but I think that from the opposition viewpoint, it wouldn't be very satisfying for 2 reasons:

-it would be face-saving for the gvt who would't have to admit to having gone too far and the isssue of gvt officials being answerable for what they have done would be dropped; they would get off cheap.

- the detainees needn't be FORGIVEN, they are not GUILTY; being released out of islamic "clemency" or "kindness" would come down to admitting they deserved to be arrested and tried and sentenced. that would not be a victory for the opposition and that would not answer the claims of the people in the street who are not BEGGING for freedom; they WANT freedom- period.

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterflorence Achard

Hi Afshin!

You said:"What I am still not 100% sure about is what his move after this will be ?
Is he trying to take back all lost power without rocking the boat to much ?

Once that is achieved will he press on for more changes ? or will the alliance with the SL be again a sharing of power and another 25 years of clergy rule where they all consolidate and no major reform or changes will be made?

To my mind this is the only REAL question. My guess (for what it's worth) is that Rafs won't be able to press for more change once he has taken back the power because THAT will rock the boat too much; people will want everything. In fact, if Rafs' idea is to consolidate the clergy rule, then , given that large fractions of the population don't BELIEVE in it any more, AN's solution is better: ruthless suppression of all kind of protest.

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterflorence Achard

@florence Achard

Well I would not be so sure. I think there is real need for change in Iran and if the demand of the people is not met this could mean the end of the Islamic Republic. At the same time the economy is bleeding and unless foreign cash is once again atrracted there is not much chance of a recovery anytime soon. In order to do that the country needs to open up and changes are needed.

One other thing to take into consideration is how long the S.L has to live. There are very strong rumours of Khamanei being terminally ill and not having long to live, what will his death bring ?

Could Hashemi possibly be wanting to rid the country first of the Guards then being patient enough to see the S.L die before forcing the changes !??

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

[...] The Latest from Iran (23 August): Is Rafsanjani in An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc? | Enduring America [...]

Afshin,

My suspicion all along has been that Rafsanjani would move for a compromise with Supreme Leader if/when he saw the opportunity to reduce authority of Ahmadinejad. I think this move may indicate he is moving for compromise; at least it shows he is keeping the option open.

His reference to SL acting on issue of detentions is a reference, I think, to the order closing the Kahrizak prison where protestors died. It is also notable that conservative sections of media are also taking up the call for detainee rights. Without seeing a sweeping benevolence on part of Khamenei, I think we may be seeing a reaction against what is seen as excessive authority (and abuses) by President and Revolutionary Guard.

S.

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterScott Lucas

Hi Lucas,

Closing kahrizak is one thing but he really is kinda putting words in the S.L mouth. He is kinda pushing the SL even.

At the same time one must not forget that People such as Taeb and the likes take orders from Mojtaba indeed the son of Khamenei..

If Khamenei lets the Guards be weakend to much, it will be the end of him. This really is the most encredible 4 sided chess game.

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAfshin

Hey all, late today
re. 0700 GMT post: The analysts might have been spared some trouble if they'd stumbled across the conversation here yesterday.

Hope today was a good day-- I always dig in from the bottom & read up in chronological order, so it's too soon to say...

August 23, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAmy

They are reaching a compromise finally, or maybe they have reached already and they are making people ready to accept it. I don think Rafsanjani is pushing the SL now because as Scott said the statement comes after the SL's order to close the prison. It seems that Rafsanjani is trying to show Ad more isolated than before and yes he is more isolated.

August 25, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterm.

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