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Entries in Mohammad Sadegh Larijani (19)

Saturday
Aug152009

Iran Special: Mohammad Sadegh Larijani and a "Militarised" Judiciary

Iran: The Battle over the Judiciary and the Republic’s Future
The Latest from Iran (15 August): Battles Within the Establishment

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M S LARIJANIIn the midst of the ongoing uncertainty over the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary Enduring America correspondents have been paying close attention to this extended analysis by Mehdi Khalaji, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Khalaji offers both background and critique of Larijani within the context of what he calls the "militarization" of Iran's legal and judicial bodies.

We have read this in the light both of WINEP's political position of long-time hostility to the Iranian regime and of Khalaji's own history as a former cleric. An EA correspondent writes, "Khalaji usually goes down very strong on his former Qom classmates usually. His analysis may turn out to be true, but Sadegh is actually more scholarly than what Khalaji makes him out to be. For example, I have a very erudite rebuttal of Mohammad Khatami's civil society that was written by him 11 years ago in a right-wing weekly called Sobh. However, what Khalaji says about Khamenei's progressive replacement of the elite with a younger generation of his own liking is very similar to other analyses, including those from "reformists". Interesting to see how opinions are converging on this front."

Militarization of the Iranian Judiciary


Widespread reports suggest that Sadeq Larijani, a young and inexperienced cleric with close ties to Iran's military and intelligence agencies, will officially replace Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as head of the Iranian
judiciary on August 16. [Editor's Note: The installation was originally scheduled for 15 August but has been delayed, reported to the 17th.] This appointment is particularly significant, since the judiciary in Iran wields considerable power --- albeit through the approval of Iran's top leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei --- and has a great deal of latitude to make decisions without reference to law or Islamic concepts, especially when "safeguarding the interests of the regime" is deemed necessary.

Who is Sadeq Larijani?

Born in 1960 in Najaf, Iraq, Sadeq Larijani is the son of Grand Ayatollah Hashem Amoli and the son-in-law of Grand Ayatollah Hossein Vahid Khorasani, currently one of the most widely followed marjas, "sources of
emulation" whose rulings are regarded as binding by devout Shiite believers. Larijani's two older and well-known brothers -- Ali Larijani, speaker of the Majlis (Iranian parliament) and former nuclear negotiator, and Mohammad Javad Larijani, the deputy head of the judiciary, former deputy foreign affairs minister, and mathematics graduate from the University of California, Berkeley -- are also married into respected clerical families: Ali is the son-in-law of the late Morteza Motahhari, an ideologue of the Islamic government, and Mohammad Javad is the son-in-law of Hassan Hassanzadeh, an ayatollah in Qom. Khamenei, at one point the supervisor of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), became
intimate with the Larijani family during Ali's several-year post as deputy commander of the IRGC.

Sadeq justifies his lack of political experience in a short autobiography on his website. Because he "felt that the West's cultural invasion was no less important than a military invasion," he decided to prepare himself
for "confronting the cultural invasion," in part by learning English. He used his new language skills to translate several philosophical works,such as an article by Karl Popper on the philosophy of science and G. J.
Warnock's Contemporary Moral Philosophy, the latter of which he annotated and critiqued from the Islamic point of view. Sadeq first made a name for himself by criticizing religious intellectuals such as Abdulkarim Soroush and eventually became one of the main voices of the Islamic Republic. Larijani taught courses on Islamic ideology, both at the seminary in Qom and at various IRGC bases around the country.

In 2001, Sadeq Larijani was the youngest jurist ever to be appointed to the Guardian Council, the twelve-person body responsible for approving all laws passed by the Majlis and for supervising elections. In the course of his Guardian Council activities, he has tried to remain under the radar by avoiding public appearances and media interviews. He has also made every effort to keep his relationships with Khamenei, the intelligence apparatus, and the IRGC under wraps.

Militarizing Iran's Institutions

In his twenty years in office, particularly in recent years, Khamenei has replaced military, political, economic, cultural, and clerical officials with a new generation of politicians and clerics who owe their political
or religious credentials to him. The IRGC and intelligence apparatuses became the main avenues through which young ambitious men loyal to Khamenei could enter the political scene.

Although most of these new politicians and clerics are close to Khamenei, they are not traditional clerics with independent political and religious credentials, such as those who participated in the 1979 Revolution.

Instead, most of the new generation began their careers in the military, the IRGC, and the intelligence services. Notable examples include Ahmad Khatami (no relation to former president Muhammad Khatami), an influential intelligence agent who is now a member of the Assembly of Experts and the Friday prayer Imam of Tehran; Ahmad Salek, Khamenei's representative in both the Qods Force and IRGC intelligence and a member of the Militant Clerics Society of Tehran; Hossein Taeb, the commander of Basij militia and former head of IRGC intelligence; and Sadeq Larijani.

Khamenei's Judiciary

Khamenei keeps close control of the Iranian judiciary: he not only appoints its head, but also gives unofficial recommendations to other high-ranking judiciary officials. Often a micromanager, Khamenei has been
known to go over the judiciary's head, exemplified by his recent order to close the Kahrizak detention center in Tehran (a move that usually requires a court order). Critics say the closure was meant to prevent a Majlis investigation into abuse of the facility's prisoners -- most of whom were arrested following the postelection demonstrations.

Although the Iranian constitution states that the judiciary supervise all juridical and legal processes, some bodies, such as the Special Court of Clerics, work under Khamenei's direct supervision outside the judiciary's
framework. Moreover, even though the IRGC, Basij, police, Intelligence Ministry, and Special Court of Clerics run many of Iran's detention centers, the judiciary has no jurisdiction over any of them. Further
complicating matters, Khamenei is constitutionally the final arbiter in any dispute between government officials, with the right to overrule Islamic law when necessary to safeguard the interests of the regime. As
such, the judiciary uses Islamic law as the basis for its decisions only when Khamenei sees such use as not in conflict with the regime's interests -- as he defines it.

Not only is the judiciary empowered to ignore Islamic law, it also bypasses the country's criminal law, particularly in politically related cases. This has led to harsh criticism by secular lawyers as well as
clerics in the last two decades. In an open letter to Hashemi Shahroodi, for instance, published in Ettelaat newspaper on August 2, Ayatollah Mustafa Mohaqeq Damad, a prominent scholar of Islamic law, criticized the concept of the "interests of the regime," complaining, "The bitter taste of what happened in the judiciary under you, especially in recent days, would not be forgettable for Iranian people ... Under you, the judiciary,
which is the pivot of society's security, is not only shaken but destroyed."

Conclusion

Iran's judiciary -- under the watchful eye of Iran's top leader -- has a great deal of power to shape the country's legal system and environment. Sadeq Larajani's ties to the IRGC and intelligence agencies provide ample reason to believe that he will use his new powers to crack down even further on human rights and civil liberties than did his predecessors. Moreover, Larijani's appointment signals that the judiciary, the IRGC, and the intelligence agencies will be more closely aligned then ever. Presumably, this state of affairs indicates that traditional ayatollahs deeply trained in Islamic law -- but who are not members of the
intelligence-military-political circles -- will have a lesser role in government in years to come. Given the unstable situation in post-election Iran, such a scenario could be a recipe for continued and ongoing chaos.
Friday
Aug142009

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

NEW Text: Latest Karroubi Statement on Detainees, Rafsanjani, and Larijani (13 August)
NEW Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Pressure on the Supreme Leader
NEW Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees
NEW Video: Debating the Election, Protest, and the Tehran Trials (Marandi, Mossavat, and Tisdall)

The Latest from Iran (13 August): The Challenge Rebuilds
Two Months On: All Our Videos From Iran’s Post-Election Conflict

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AHMED KHATAMI

2025 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, which has been very active today in portraying division within the Government, leaves another explosive story tonight. It claims that a member of Parliament from the "majority (conservative) faction" has "revealed that Hossein Fadaii, Tehran’s pro-Ahmadinejad MP and chairman of [the hardline pro-Ahmadinejad organisation] Isargaran was responsible for the crimes committed in Kahrizak prison [where some detainees were killed] and this has been proven for the Parliament".

2005 GMT: Another ominous (and official) signal. The political director of the Revolutionary Guard, General Yudollah Javani, has reissued the threat to arrest opposition leaders. Having sent out the message in the Guard's journal last week, Javani said yesterday that prosecution of Mir Hossein Mousavi would end opposition and the “blow that has been dealt to the prestige of the establishment.”

After criticising Mohammad Khatami, Javani identified his main target: "This flame of sedition cannot be put out unless through clarifying and trying the real elements [of the movement]. Mousavi should stand before the court to be enlightened.”

2000 GMT: All day there has been Twitter chatter about leaflets, circulated at Friday prayers in Tehran, calling for an attack on the main office of Etemade Melli, the party of Mehdi Karroubi, tomorrow at 4 p.m. local time.

Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, has picked up the story, saying that the leaflets were circulated by Ansar-e Hezbollah on the fringes of the prayer meeting. It notes websites and Facebook pages calling for Green activists to show up at the office.

1700 GMT: Another Rift in Parliament. This time it's over the post-election death toll. Press TV is reporting:
A senior lawmaker says he will put forth a detailed list of those who were killed in the street violence. Morteza Alviri, a...member of the special committee investigating the death and detention of election protestors, said he would list all individuals killed in the demonstrations that spiraled out of control....

His remarks come only days after Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Head of the Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said the committee's list of the death toll had been proven “inconclusive”.

1440 GMT: An Important Friday Prayer Correction. Ahmed Khatami did name one of the "enemies" doing the Devil's work in his address. He referred to the now-famous and very significant letter from Mehdi Karroubi, which has alleged abuse of detainees, claiming that it was a "letter of diversion" doing "the work of the USA and Israel". Khatami said Iran's judiciary explicitly ruled that the claims were a lie, a Parliamentar special committee said that the claims were a lie, "so all this article said is a lie".

1355 GMT: An EA correspondent offers the following, based on Mowj-e-Sabz, on the delay of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani's appointment as head of Iran's judiciary (1220 GMT):
Larijani's inauguration has been delayed because he has requested the complete termination of judicial inquiries and investigations of political prisoners arrested after June 12 before he assumes office. According to the prosecutor general, Ayatollah Dorri-Najafabadi, Larijani wants to start with a clean slate, and this request was taken to the Supreme leader.

To an extent, this can be seen as a joint effort by the Larijanis, Ali and Mohammad Sadegh, to distance themselves from Ahmadinejad and avoid being lumped together with him. Given the ostensible closeness between Ali and Sadegh, I expect Ahmadinejad to be in for a bumpy ride in Parliament should he bethe reason for Sadegh's delayed start as head of judiciary.

The article adds, however, that Mohammad Sadegh has a lot of opponents within the Qom seminary system, who have raised doubts on his theological prowess and on whether he can actually run the judiciary in an impartial way given his young age and thin academic profile.

1350 GMT: Fereshteh Ghazi reports that "several Majlis lawmakers confirmed...reports", raised in Mehdi Karroubi's letter, of sexual abuse of detainees; "they added, however, that they had been banned from discussing the matter".

1320 GMT: The "reformist" site Norooz News is reporting that President Ahmadinejad and his supporters tabled a proposal for the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi and "10 other leaders of the reform movement", including some unspecified members of the reformist association Rowhaniooon Mobarez, at the National Security Council. The plan was pushed through, despite opposition within the Council, but then shelved by the "highest authorities of state" (a likely reference to the Supreme Leader) as this could lead to the "collapse of the political system".

1255 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz, the website of the Green movement, claims, from "an informed source in the Ministry of Science", that Tehran University and other universities will be closed this semester to prevent student protests.

1220 GMT: Iranian Labor News Agency reports that the installation of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani as head of Iran's judiciary (see separate entry), scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed. No rescheduled time has been announced.

1105 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi's website Ghalam News is down. There is concern that this may be that may be in the aftermath of an attack by hackers.

1045 GMT: It appears that the Fars report (1030 GMT) downplayed the references to the opposition in Ahmed Khatami's Friday prayer address. Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting summarises the speech as a call to Iranians to maintain their "consciousness of conspiracy". Khatami said that people "now know the enemy of the Islamic system" with its "tales of war and the arrogance of the government".

1040 GMT: Reuters, however, does give an indication of Khatami's specific attention to the post-election crisis and, significantly, the issues of detainees and trials: "Iranians expect the judiciary to act strongly and firmly and not to yield to Western pressure [to release detainees]."

As we predicted in our first update this morning (0630 GMT), "[Khatami's address will be] an important clue that the regime may refuse to give any ground. If so, that could be a significant blunder.....It won’t be a question of how many protestors come out on the streets today. It will be a question of how many are brought out on future days by the regime’s continued intransigence."

1030 GMT: Fars News has posted its summary of Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami's Friday prayer address. Khatami spoke of "the devil's methods" of creating differences between people. Khatami referred to Satan's "working tools and facilities" to justify sin, guilt, and humiliation and to make the devout forget God.

Khatami, at least in Fars' summary, did not specify who exactly were the "working tools and facilities" of the devil, leaving it to listeners to draw their own conclusions.

0845 GMT: The Iraq Dimension? Tabnak reports, from "an informed source close to Hashemi Rafsanjani", that Rafsanjani recently met Seyed Abdolaziz Hakim, the head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, in Hakim's house in north Tehran.

Ostensibly, Rafsanjani visited to enquire about the health of Hakim, who has been in Iran for a year for treatment of cancer. However, Tabnak's source said that Rafsanjani also stressed that it was essential that, at this time, the Iraqis should maintain their unity in forming a new Shia coalition.

The big question, however, is not what was discussed about Iraq's politics but about Iran's in the meeting, which also included Hakim's son, Seyed Mohsen Hakim. The encounter follows the intervention of Iraq-based Ayatollah Ali Sistani, with its oblique criticism of Iran's Supreme Leader, and reported meetings between Rafsanjani and Sistani earlier in the post-election crisis.

0630 GMT: This Friday opens with a strange sense of uncertainty. Thursday may have been a relatively quiet one in this crisis, but it still introduced three issues that may or may not mark a new phase in the challenge to the Iranian regime. Two of these, each of which could be turn into high political drama, are being considered in separate analyses: 1) "Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees" and 2) "New Move Against the Supreme Leader?"

The third issue, the developments in and around Friday prayers in Tehran, will be tracked in our updates. Hashemi Rafsanjani may no longer be leading the prayers, but the withdrawal does not reduce today to a non-event. To the contrary, Green movement activists are calling for a show of protest. And then there is the presence of the "replacement" leader of prayers, Ayatollah Ahmed Khatami.

Khatami has already make his mark in this post-election crisis when he called from the prayer platform for harsh treatment, including the death penalty, for demonstrators. And yesterday, speaking to the clerics of the Political-Ideological Organization of the Ministry of Defense, he turned his attention to one of the "ringleaders", Mehdi Karroubi, and his letter alleging mistreatment of detainees:
If a person libels someone with allegations of sexual abuse, then he deserves to be punished for libel. If someone libels the system by saying that rape takes place in prisons, then he must either prove it or, if he cannot, then the system must press charges and the public prosecutor must act.

If allegations are proven with witnesses, then, without any considerations, the perpetrators must be severely punished. But, what if they are not proven? How long should the system remain silent, in the face of such attacks?

Interpretation? First, Khatami's statement is a tip-off that, as we noted in our separate analysis this morning, the regime is feeling the pressure from Karroubi's letter, especially now that Hashemi Rafsanjani has used it to get a response from the judiciary.

But second, and more important, this is an important clue that the regime may refuse to give any ground. If so, that could be a significant blunder. At several points in this crisis, Iranian leaders could have eased the situation by offering some concession to the demands of protestors. And on each occasion --- the Supreme Leader's prayer address on 19 June; the refusal to sanction any demonstration as legal; the mis-handling of the Guardian Council's "recount" of the vote; the uncertain response to the "40th Day" memorial on 30 July; the insistence on holding the Tehran trails--- those leaders have not only refused to take even a minor step towards compromise, they have shaken a fist at the opposition.

Now, as the regime is faced once more with a possibile avenue to a settlement --- this time over the treatment of detainees --- Ahmed Khatami is indicating that the reply of "No" will be shouted out. If he does so from his Friday prayer platform today, it won't be a question of how many protestors come out on the streets today. It will be a question of how many are brought out on future days by the regime's continued intransigence.
Friday
Aug142009

Iran: Is the Challenge to the Regime Alive? Karroubi, Rafsanjani, and Detainees

The Latest from Iran (14 August): Just Another Prayer Day?

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RAFSANJANI2The immediate significance of Mehdi Karroubi's letter, as it passed from Karroubi to Secretary of Parliament Ali Larijani and then, via Hashemi Rafsanjani, to the head of Iran's judiciary was that it kept the detainee issue at the top of the political agenda. But, of course, what lies behind that issue is the extent of the challenge to the Iranian system. And there uncertainty arises.

Foremost among these are the plans of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was supposed to be leading Friday prayers today. I find it extremely difficult to read the former President, whose political moves can be very intricate. So my initial framing of his role yesterday as a "messenger" passing the Karroubi letter to judiciary head Ayatollah Shahroudi --- with its conclusion that Rafsanjani had now been "contained" in this crisis --- was off the mark.

EA colleagues have raised two very different possibilities. The first is that Rafsanjani is having to show great caution because the regime is increasing its pressure on him. Here, the assertion that the former President would have been arrested if he had led Friday prayers is an unhelpful exaggeration. Instead, the hints are that the Government will investigate charges of corruption, beginning with members of Rafsanjani's family. This hint has been around before and after the election, and it resurfaces at times --- such as this week --- when the regime is feeling pressure.

That, however, points to a second explanation. Rafsanjani who is maintaining his challenge to the system but in more subtle ways. His passing of the Karroubi letter to Shahroudi, as we noted in our last updates yesterday, could be seen as a powerful signal that the former President was slapping down the head of the judiciary for the regime's inaction and letting him know that something would now be done. Shahroudi accepted that signal and responded that there would be an investigation of the detainee issue, beginning with examination of Karroubi's allegations.

Shahroudi, however, leaves office tomorrow, to be replaced by Mohammad Sadegh Larijani. Larijani is known as a "hard-liner"; at the same time, he is disliked by President Ahmadinejad's supporters, to the extent that they have tried to block his appointment this week by spreading the story that he told the Supreme Leader of widespread "cheating" in the election.

So another uncertainty can be added: how seriously will the judiciary pursue the Karroubi letter? The same question, when put to the Parliament, got the inconclusive reply of another Larijani, Speaker of the Parliament Ali, that he needed to see  more evidence. If the judiciary follows suit, then the next moves in this lengthening chess match are up to Karroubi and Rafsanjani.
Thursday
Aug132009

The Latest from Iran (13 August): The Challenge Rebuilds

The Latest from Iran (12 August): Two Months Later

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KARROUBI22105 GMT: And one interesting tidbit from the evening press in Iran. Press TV reports, using Parleman News, that Iranian journalists are putting their own pressure on the Government over detainees:
Iranian journalists have called on the truth-finding committee for the post-election unrest to facilitate a meeting between detained opposition activist Saeed Hajjarian and the media. On Journalist Day, parliamentary reporters and political correspondents meeting with a high-ranking member of the committee Alaeddin Boroujerdi requested a meeting with Hajjarian.

2100 GMT: However, even if the news is slow, the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story still has explosive potential. An EA colleague hauls me up over my earlier portrayal of Rafsanjani as "messenger":
Rafsanjani is not merely passing letters! In Iranian bureaucracy, when an individual deals with an official who is stonewalling, you send a letter to a person who is considered to be that official's superior, explaining the said official's behavior and
asking the superior to interfere directly. The superior then writes a message on top of the original letter directing the official to respond to the original request. In this particular instance Karroubi has sent a letter to Rafsanjani, implying that Rafsanjani is Shahroudi's superior, and Rafsanjani has effectively sent Shahroudi a directive not a request. I do not think that this implies a "passive and limited Rafsanjani".

2030 GMT: Apologies for the lack of updates, but there is little visible political movement beyond the negotiations over the Karroubi letter. The Los Angeles Times is filling the gap by sensationalising an interview with former First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai. CNN is playing up "U.N. experts say Iran tortured to extract confessions", with three United Nations issuing general opinions (since a detailed investigation is impossible) on the detentions, confessions, and trials. And Tehran Bureau speculates on the next Minister of Intelligence.

1645 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi's party newspaper, Etemade Melli, has the next part of the Karroubi-Rafsanjani story. Karroubi say that the head of Iran's judiciary, Ayatollah Shahroudi, has asked the prosecutor general to contact Karroubi and to send people to take the points about abuse of detainees back to Iranian authorities

1545 GMT: And a Rafsanjani Response? Press TV's website is reporting, from the Iranian newspaper Jomhuriye Eslami, that Hashemi Rafsanjani has now acted on the 29 July letter from Mehdi Karroubi, calling for investigation of abuses of detainees. Rafsanjani passed it to Iran's head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Hashemi Shahroudi.

Shahroudi supposedly replied that such treatment had not happened in detention centers under the supervision of the judicial branch. Rafsanjani's firm response? He passed Shahroudi's response back to Karroubi.

If the report is true, the former President has reduced himself to the role of passing messages between others. However, "if true" needs to be kept in mind --- I suspect the regime relishes the image of a now passive and limited Rafsanjani.

1535 GMT: Another Letter to Rafsanjani. An organisation representing hundreds of former members of Parliament has written to Hashemi Rafsanjani demanding reviews of the "activities and performance of Iranian institutions, security and military forces, and the judicial system in recent events". The reviews are of "fundamental importance...to protect public trust in the Islamic Republic and the Constitution."

1530 GMT: There are reports from Iran (link in Farsi) that more than 30 detainees will begin a hunger strike from Saturday unless there is a review of their situation.

1045 GMT: A relatively quiet day so far. The one intervention is a curious one, with the Supreme Leader telling officials, “If I was to give you one advice, it would be for you to increase your insight....If you do not have deep insight, if you cannot distinguish your friends, if you cannot spot your enemies, then your attacks, dialogue and your actions may target your friends instead of your enemies."

The curiosity lies not in the remarks, which are fairly anodyne --- put aside personal and party interests for the good of the Republic, watch out for foreign threats, etc. --- but in the timing. Ayatollah Khamenei's meeting with the officials was on 27 July.

So why release a summary of the remarks more than two weeks later?

0740 GMT: More on the Karroubi-Larijani Story. A member of Mehdi Karroubi's party, Etemade Melli, has reiterated that Karroubi will soon present Ali Larijani with evidence regarding the abuse of prisoners. The party member adds that individuals who have told Karroubi of their abuse are willing to testify to Parliament. Larijani has responded that he would like to listen to the statements of these individuals privately before having them give evidence to the Parliament.

0720 GMT: Intrigue of the Morning --- The "Other" Larijani, the Judiciary, and Election Fraud. Yesterday we noted a claim that a member of the Guardian Council had told the Supreme Leader of his belief that there was widespread "cheating" in the Presidential election. At the same time, we picked up a rumour, which we held back from reporting, that the appointment of Mohammad Sadegh Larijani (the brother of Speaker of the Parliament, Ali Larijani) as head of Iran's judiciary was not a done deal.

Well, today put 2 and 2 together and get a (possibly mischievous) 4. The Green movement's outlet Mowj-e-Sabz claims:
Recently [Mohammad Sadegh] Larijani has made quite a few unpalatable statements in some private gatherings: namely, that as a member of the Guardian Council he was against validating the results of the last election and he did not believe that the election was conducted in an honest fashion. This has caused some of Ahmadinejad's supporters to vehemently oppose Larijani's appointment to the post; these opponents may have sufficient influence to sway the Supreme Leader's opinions away from appointing Larijani, even though Larijani has an established track record as a hardcore conservative. Larijani has also blatantly stated that the resolution of all issues regarding the recent detainees is a necessary precondition for him to take the job, another position that will not endear him to the AN fraction.

0530 GMT: 24 hours ago, I was uncertain where the opposition could and would go after the setback over Hashemi Rafsanjani's withdrawal from Friday prayers in Tehran. Yesterday's events provided an answer, culminating in a challenge --- still unnoted by the media outside Iran --- to the authority of the Supreme Leader.

The biggest clues did not come from the Bazaar demonstrations. While there were reports throughout the day of a gathering in the market, with claims of up to 80 percent of shops closed, the protests were too fragmented to have a visible impact, given the restrictions on news coverage. No video emerged; indeed, activists were so anxious to get some images that a falsely-dated clip circulated last night, and some reliable onlookers (including me) fell for it.

At the risk of sounding cold, to have an impact beyond the spot, the demonstrations need an organising “hook” --- an event, a rallying symbol, a public figure. And, for the moment, none of those is really present. There is talk of marching to the Tehran prayer site tomorrow despite Rafsanjani's withdrawal, but the chatter appears more hopeful rather than co-ordinated.

That does not means, however, that the challenge to the regime has finally fizzled out. To the contrary, Wednesday was dominated by rolling news of another show of resistance from political and religious figures.<

Once again, some of that came from “within” the Establishment. President Ahmadinejad's troubles with the majority “principlist” bloc are now on the surface, and the clock is ticking: he has six days to get his Cabinet choices ratified or the prospect of new elections arises. Individual MPs kept up the pressure, and Presidential candidate Mohsen Rezaie added some high-profile criticism, including the call for firing and arrest of any officials involved with detainee abuse.

That issue of detainees is also galvanising for opposition politicians. Mehdi Karroubi is now in the public lead, with his letter to Hashemi Rafsanjani alleging abuses and calling for an enquiry on the frontline. Early yesterday, Speaker of the Parliament Ali Larijani's call for evidence appeared to have checked Karroubi, but the “reformist” leader took back the initiative last night with the promise to provide information.

Mir Hossein Mousavi added an important statement in the afternoon, turning the “foreign threat” issue against the regime. (We've posted extracts in a separate entry.) The appearance was important for several reasons: it brought Mousavi, who had been somewhat quieted since he was turned away from the “40th Day” memorial at Behesht-e-Zahra cemetery on 30 July, back to the forefront. And it threw down the challenge to the Government: do you really want to maintain the high-profile risk of making your case through the Tehran trials, as well as the threats to opposition leaders from institutions such as the Republican Guard and supporting media?

However, the most intriguing intervention came late in the day in a statement, still little-noticed outside the country, by Ayatollah Dastgheib. His call for an emergency meeting of the 86-member Assembly of Experts was not so significant in its timing --- the Assembly has a regular gathering scheduled within the next month --- as in its language. Dastgheib came out openly against the authority of Ayatollah Khamenei, criticising the Supreme Leader for his handling of the post-election crisis and more broadly for his supervision of the Islamic Republic.

In the opinion of one of my Enduring America colleagues, this will be the most significant meeting of the Assembly since the selection of Ayatollah Khamenei as Supreme Leader in 1989. It is a remarkable shift six months ago at the last meeting, it was Hashemi Rafsnanjani fending off a challenge to his leadership of the Assembly. Now, only a few weeks after the pro-regime clique again failed to topple Rafsanjani, it is the Supreme Leader who may be in the dock.

This does not mean that the opposition is on the point of toppling President Ahmadinejad, let alone Khamenei. Even Dastgheib's initiative, which was complemented by another statement by Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani on the legitimacy of a system which mistreated detainees, is more about keeping up pressure than raising the likelihood of a majority Assembly vote against the Iranian leadership. And the regime still has its own pressure points to exploit: there were signs yesterday, with an open media allegation against Rafsanjani's brother, that the campaign against the former President may be ramped up.

What can be said,after yesterday, however, is that the story is not over. Welcome to the next chapter.....
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