Iran Election Guide

Donate to EAWV





Or, click to learn more

Search

Entries in Etemade Melli (13)

Sunday
Aug302009

The Latest from Iran (30 August): Parliament Discusses the Cabinet

NEW Video: The Iftar Protests (30 August)
Iran Debate: How Weak (or Strong) is Ahmadinejad?
Today’s Gold Medal Iran “Expert”: Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post
The Latest from Iran (29 August): The Stakes Are Raised

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis

AHMADINEJAD52100 GMT: The Mowj-e-Sabz website, which has been a vital source of information (if one reporting for the cause of the Green movement) during this conflict, is down. We're watching to see if it has been hacked out of existence.

1955 GMT: That #CNNFail Thing (see 1445 GMT). CNN staffer Samira Simone tweets from Atlanta, "More trouble for Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks", linking to a Saturday story in the Los Angeles Times on the disputed Ph.D. of the President's proposed Minister of Higher Education.

Meanwhile, no one on CNN's website seems to have noticed that a debate over "Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks" took place in the Iranian Parliament today. There is still no advance on their story about the President's speech at Friday prayers.

1915 GMT: Agence France Presse draws on the opinions of two high-profile "conservative" MPs to draw out the challenge to President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet nominees:
"Sixteen nominees have no experience required for the ministries they have been nominated for," said powerful MP Ahmad Tavakoli. "The cabinet lacks harmony in its view when it comes to handling crucial issues such as economic development. The views of candidates nominated to head the economy, oil and commerce ministries contradict that of the agriculture ministry nominee."

Another top conservative, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, said he will "definitely not vote for a few nominees: "Some nominees of four or five ministries have an educational background which is contradictory to their portfolios."

1830 GMT: The news that Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Chief Prosecutor, has been named as Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General, serving under the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, has caused consternation. Mohammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau assesses:

The move also provides some clues into [head of Iran judiciary Sadegh] Larijani’s thinking and his views about his tenure at the judiciary. Larijani does not appear to be interested in reforming the system or leaving a positive legacy. Ejeie himself is a hardliner, and both he and Mortazavi are strongly supported by Ayatollah Khamenei. Their appointments signal that the harsh tactics in dealing with the reformist leaders and the people supporting them will continue.

I'm still in "wait and see" mode while an EA correspondent writes, "I think [this] really highlights how things are not quite as they appear in Iran. We were all thinking that Sadegh Larijani is weeding the hard core Ahmadinejad henchment away from top posts, when suddently Mortazavi gets actually promoted. I am not an expert of the Iranian judiciary system, but would venture to say that it is effectively a promotion, although it needs to be seen how he will cope with his boss, Mohseni Ejeie."

1735 GMT: Protestors have gathered in front of the Amir Almomenin Mosque in Tehran. Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami had planned to join families of detainees for an Iftar (breaking of the Ramadan fast) meal, but the gathering was prohibited by authorities. We've posted video in a separate entry.

1640 GMT: Radio Farda has published a transcript (in Farsi) of President Ahmadinejad's speech in Parliament today.

1635 GMT: The Kargozaran Party, which associated with Hashemi Rafsanjani, has issued a statement of support for Mehdi Karroubi.

1520 GMT: Some urgent re-interpretation might be in order. According to BBC Persian, Saeed Mortazavi was not "fired" as Tehran's chief prosecutor. Instead, he's been moved at the judiciary to Deputy Prosecutor General.

1445 GMT: Credit to Associated Press, who have written a summary of the debate in Parliament, highlighting criticism of Ahmadinejad over the Iranian economy and noting specific hostility to his nominee as Minister of Energy, Massed Mirkazemi. (Unfortunately, they missed the humour of the "Peach" episode --- see 1230 GMT.) Credit also to MSNBC for picking up the story.

CNN continues its recent record of hopelessness: its last Iran story is from Friday, "Ahmadinejad urges stiff punishment for election dissenters".

1230 GMT: The Parliamentary debate has ended for the day. Parleman News has posted a running summary.

The overall headline appears to be that criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government, with principlists MPs pointing to a weak administration and reformists objecting to the lack of a substantial Government programme, will not stop general Parliamentary affirmation. Votes on individual ministers, which start on Monday, will be much trickier for the President.

So Ahmadinejad has avoided an immediate setback, but this does not mean he escaped ridicule. The moment that may capture the political imagination came when some Parliamentarians started shouting, "Peach! Peach!" That is an allusion to Ahmadinejad's television appearance last week, when he compared his former Minister of Health to "a peach I would like to eat".

1145 GMT: Parallel to our live blog coverage of the Parliamentary discussion, we've posted a lively debate --- drawing on the expertise of our Mr  Smith and Mr Johnson as well as blogs from Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau and Fintan Dunne --- on the political position of President Ahmadinejad.

1135 GMT: Parleman News have now posted a summary, via Mehr News, of the first session of Parliament on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. MPs of the majority principlist bloc have been fierce in their criticism of the President. I still expect Parliamentary approval of the Government, but the estimate of up to 7 ministers being rejected is still prominent.

1125 GMT: Meanwhile Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with members of the Etemade Melli party, emphasised that suspending their newspaper or filtering their website will not make them give up and that they will continue their efforts with strong determination. He added that on Quds Day (the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September) the authorities will witness people’s power once again and will know which side people are supporting.

1100 GMT: There is a Twitter report that tonight's Iftar (breaking of Ramadan fast), in which with Karroubi, Mousavi, Khatami, and families of detainees dined with the Reform Front Coordination Council, has been cancelled by authorities from the Ministry of Intelligence.

(We have now confirmed this via Saham News and the website of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party.)

1000 GMT: Parleman News is updating on the Parlimentary speeches, which initially will be over the acceptance of the Cabinet as a whole rather on individual Ministers. Our reading is that while some high-profile critics of President Ahmadinejad, such as Vice Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar, are maintaining their denunciation of a "weak" Administration, they will encourage the Majlis to offer its support by voting for the Government.

0835 GMT: An Inauspicious Start? While Press TV summarises Ahmadinejad's speech this morning to Parliament, Parleman News thinks the President may have mis-stepped even before he took the podium. Ahmadinejad showed up with bodyguards, an unprecedented measure that brought protests from reformist MPs.

0830 GMT: We've just read an opinion piece on Iran that was so jaw-droppingly, well, bad that we had to give the author, Jim Hoagland of The Washington Post, his own special space.

0710 GMT: The Secret Burials in Behesht-e-Zahra Cemetery. Hamid-Reza Katouzian, a member of the special Parliamentary committee investigating claims of post-election misconduct, has said that there are unidentified people buried in the cemetery but it is unclear whether there are the 40 protestors whom the opposition claim were interred on orders from security forces.

0700 GMT: Fintan Dunne has joined our debate from yesterday over the claim, launched in the Tehran Bureau, that President Ahmadinejad is "isolated, weak, and delusional".
Muhammad Sahimi was too dismissive in describing of Ahmadinejad...as "isolated and delusional", and erred in reducing the regime to the person of the President. But he was correct to describe Ahmadinejad as "weak"....

The regime is now tellingly reliant on a narrow base of IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] appointees to fill government posts. Ahmadinejad/IRGC's core 'hard' support is as low as 10% with a 'softer' support extending to up to 18% of the population. The disputed president's public pronouncements are reductionist and defensive --aimed at his own supporters and the ill-informed. By contrast, most other voices in Iranian politics are addressing the remaining 80%+ of the population.

Despite their hard-line rhetoric, Ahmadinejad/IRGC are unable to crush the reformers. It is going to be far harder to violently suppress any mass public protests in the weeks ahead. And there is a dire political problem looming for this one-legged regime: it's the economy, stupid!...As the weeks pass, the economy will join the stolen election as the twin key political issues for the populace.

0650 GMT: On the opposition side, there has been a lot of chatter about a report that Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karroubi, joining families of political detainees, will attend this evening's Iftar ceremony, when the daily Ramadan fast is broken, with the Reform Front Coordination Council.

0635 GMT: Attention this morning turns to the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament, where President Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial nominations come up for votes of confidence. The debates and votes are more than referenda on individual Ministers; they are also a key sign of how much support the President retains, especially amongst the majority principlist bloc.

While there have been reports this week that up to 7 of the nominations are in trouble, these are based more on the comments of a couple of highly-placed MPs rather than a survey of Parliamentary opinion. The safest assessment that can be made is that Ahmadinejad's 3 women nominees are unlikely to be approved; beyond that, several other Ministers will rise or fall depending on behind-the-scene manoeuvres and their own presentations to the Parliament.
Monday
Aug242009

The Latest from Iran (24 August): The 4-D Chess Match

NEW Israel Shock Announcement: Saudis Go Nuclear…All Tehran’s Fault
NEW Welcome to the Irony: Iran's Parliament Passes Bill to Defend Human Rights
The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?


Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis


IRAN GREEN

2110 GMT: In addition to providing the first set of his evidence of detainee abuse to Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi has responded to criticism from a conservative MP, Ahmad Tavakoli, that the revelations were against Karroubi's revolutionary background and would have bad consequences. Karroubi said that it was not right to sacrifice "our religion, dignity and bravery for the benefit of ourselves" and that the regime's is to no one's benefits.

2100 GMT: Returning to the comments of former 1st Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai (see 1315 GMT), more to raise a smile than to offer any analysis. Rahim-Mashai said that the election had demonstrated President Ahmadinejad's historic and extraordinary popularity in the world, a popularity unique before and after the Islamic Revolution. He added that, had it not been for the “challenges” that the Ahmadinejad Administration created in the world, Iran would not be as successful as it is today. (Press TV has a summary in English.)

1945 GMT: The Los Angeles Times blog "Babylon & Beyond" has summarised the first testimony of detainee abuse produced by Mehdi Karroui (see 1535 and 1930 GMT):
Iranian officials interviewed an alleged victim of jailhouse rape at the hands of security personnel. But instead of consoling him, they asked him embarrassing questions and blamed him for the violence.

They said it was the young man's own fault for protesting the results of Iran's June 12 presidential elections, according to a fresh account of the alleged rape published on the website of a prominent reformist politician.

"I asked them why I and others were raped in prison," the young man says he asked two interrogators and a judge who had agreed to hear his story....

One of the three replied, "'When the supreme leader confirmed the election result, everyone should have recognized it."

1940 GMT: For What It's Worth. Press TV, citing Ayandeh newspaper, reports that the managing director of the Behehst-e-Zahra cemetery has denied the secret burial of post-election casualties. Norooz claimed earlier this week, from information provided by a cemetery employee, that security forces had forced staff to inter 40 bodies.

1930 GMT: Tabnak reports that Kazam Jalali of the Parliament National Security Committee has met with Mehdi Karroubi to discuss Karroubi's initial presentation of evidence on the sexual abuse of detainees (see 1535 GMT). The Los Angeles Times offers an English summary quoting Jalali, “Karoubi agreed to introduce four persons, who have met him personally and claimed that they were tortured and raped in prison, to Parliament. Karoubi told us these four persons are ready to provide their testimonies that they were sexually abused, but they do not feel secure.”

1600 GMT: Cyber-Wars. We will probably run a feature tomorrow, but it appears that the Iranian authorities are doing serious damage to the communications and presence of the Green opposition and reformists.

One key site of Mir Housein Mousavi's campaign, Ghalam News, was hacked out of existence last month ("Service Unavailable"). It is reported that another, Kalameh Sabz, has been down for more than 10 days. The closure of Etemade Melli newspaper has been followed by the disappearance of its website ("Under Construction"); Seda-ye Edalat fell at the end of July. (The website of the Etemade Melli political party is still up and a key source for information.)

1535 GMT: The Evidence Emerges. Mehdi Karroubi has released the first testimony from an abused detainee from Saham News via his party's website, Etemade Melli, and promised that this is only "a corner of the documentation".

1525 GMT: Press TV features the story that head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani has appointed the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, as Iran's Prosecutor General, as well as naming Ayatollah Ahmad Mohseni-Gorgani as the head of the Supreme Court.

Nothing surprising there --- we reported Mohseni-Ejeie's appointment many days ago. What is significant is that Press TV is obviously repeating the news to give the President a poke in the eye. On no less than four occasions in a short article (three times in the text; once in the caption), the website stresses, "The appointment comes as earlier last month President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sacked his intelligence minister Mohseni-Ejei after he objected to the president's first deputy pick."

1450 GMT: Rumours have been flying for the last 36 hours that one of the defendants in tomorrow's fourth Tehran trial of post-election detainees will be prominent politician Saeed Hajjarian. That has now expanded to the claim that Hajarian and reformist political heavyweights , Mohsen Aminzadeh, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi will be making "confessions" on television on Tuesday night.

1400 GMT: Journalist Mahsa Amirabadi has been released after more than two months in detention. Her husband Masoud Bastani is still in Evin Prison.

1315 GMT: Slow politics day so far, but one story has been developing. The former First Vice President and current (but suspended for legal reasons) Chief of Staff, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, has given an extended interview to Islamic Republic News Agency, declaring that the Presidential election was a "referendum" on the Government.

Rahim-Mashai's lengthy version of how the election developed, however, is important for another reason. He asserts that Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to use events to curb the authority of the Supreme Leader. In the context of current events, this may be seen as a clear signal that the Ahmadinejad camp is trying to prevent any rapprochement between Ayatollah Khamenei and the former President, or as we frame it, an anti-Ahmadinejad compromise.

0915 GMT: A Green Media and Organisation. Seyed Mohammad Maraashi, writing on the website of the Mir Hossein Mousavi campaign, declares:
The continuation of this movement is tied to the creation of a cohesive organization with its own definite means of communication. The establishment of a closely knit organization depends primarily on setting up a newspaper or a television and radio network. That will allow the movement’s supporters to receive the news from trustworthy sources. This initiative will also prevent the irresponsible distribution of rumors....

But the creation of an official newspaper, radio or television network is only one of the considerable tasks of the movement. Another momentous task is the establishment of an organization. Every organization must focus on a particular objective, and this objective can be realized if we devise and preserve this organization’s structure through constant education and activity....

We should not forget that the current condition is the condition of a coup d’état, and we should be prepared to go to jail, or even to die, for our political activities.

0700 GMT: Watching Hashemi. Maryam at Keeping the Change offers a challenging evaluation of Rafsanjani's role and strategy, set in the context of his 30 years at the forefront of Iranian politics and his 17 July address at Friday prayers in Tehran:
In the first half of his speech, Rafsanjani emphasized the importance of unity to resolving the post-election crisis, a theme he discussed primarily through citations to the Quran....Rafsanjani's [Saturday] comments to the Expediency Council reinforce this view.... [It was] another...example of Rafsanjani's desire to strike a middle ground, though one which superficially favored the Establishment in the short term.

It's a persuasive argument as far as it goes, but it leaves an important question. Is it possible to find unity in the current crisis?

0545 GMT: Late last night, after a day trying to interpret where exactly Hashemi Rafsanjani stood in the post-election conflict between and amidst the President, the Supreme Leader, conservative and principlist groups, and the Green opposition, one reader wrote, "This really is the most incredible four-dimensional chess game."

In a new day in that game, the players are on a break. However, there is one move, from a high-ranking reformist member of Parliament: "The First Vice-Speaker of Iran's Parliament, Mohammad-Hassan Aboutorabi-Fard, told reporters on Sunday that it was 'likely' that the Parliament (Majlis) would reject about five of the introduced nominees."

Aboutourabi-Fard made the same statement last week, as did Mohammad-Reza Bahonar, the second Vice-Speaker. The question, of course, is whether other MPs share their scepticism.
Sunday
Aug232009

Iran Document: The Mousavi Speech to University Professors (23-24 June)

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis


MOUSAVI4On 24 June, we reported: "A curious and, if true, troubling incident. It is alleged that 70 faculty members, having met with Mir Hossein Mousavi, were later arrested."

Almost all of the faculty, most of whom were sociologists, were released, but it was unclear why the authorities reacted so fiercely to the gathering. Now Iran Quest has gone back to the speech, printed in Mowj-e-Sabz on 5 July, and offered an English translation. (The clarifications and notes in parentheses also come from Iran Quest.) The speech stands not only as an important record of Mousavi's thoughts in the day after the election but as a possible guide to continued protest:

We are accused that we are American and European (agents), that we are controlled by outsiders. That’s why I think it is imperative to state what (really) is the foreigners’ plan; And to take a stance against this issue. That’s why we need to talk about these issues. Even today and in the context of our current situation, if we truly do believe that one of the most significant outcomes of our revolution has been our independence, then we are obligated to indeed take a stance despite the harm that it may cause us. What I am really saying is that it is not going to harm us, but even if it did, we would still have to take a stance; it is important to work on this issue more extensively and declare a clearer position on as soon as possible. (The issue: accusations that Mousavi is an imperialist agents attempting regime change)

We can not completely get rid of this (accusation) influence altogether because fundamentally there is something wrong with this from the roots. There are limited media outlets that could communicate with people, gain their confidence and ultimately turn people’s attentions to those forces inside the country loyal to the Islamic Republic, Islam, the Nation, and its independence. In this regard (lack of media outlets) we are facing some serious problems. In the recent week, I have constantly discussed that this (lack of media outlets) is harmful to the whole system not just one group; that this would hurt us all. Unfortunately, we can not make a compromise. As we speak, 25 to 45 personnel of ‘Kalameh-e-sabz’ (Green Wave – Mousavi’s campaign newspaper) have been detained on charges of conspiracy. This shows how misinformed those who are in charge and take a stance against us really are.

In regards to taking legal action, I used to believe and still do that taking action that is lawful is our ultimate principle and our departing point of every action even if those laws are not taken very seriously. We can’t withdraw from this principle. Even if we disagree with a rule of law, we must resolve our issue through legal channels. I have mentioned this on numerous occasions during and after the election campaigns. Rumors and propaganda that accuse me of acting illegally are all absolute lies. I completely follow the rules and guidelines, even with regard to the Guardian Council to whom we drafted our complaint. But when 7 (out of 12) members of the Council are favoring one political party (allusion to Ahmadinejad's campaign) against the law we start having objections; if they want me to fawn and flatter them and attend their meetings, (despite the illegalities) then I would not go. I have filed my report and drafted my complaints, if they want to act appropriately they have all the documents. A person like Mr. Mohtashami (one of Mousavi’s campaign chiefs and the head of the Ministry of Interior during Khatami’s reformist presidential period) is constantly following up on the fraud issue, going back and forth and he is prepared to attend any meeting and explain what has happened.

You have seen, when Mr. Kadkhodaie (spokesperson of Guardian Council and Ahmadinejad supporter) announced on the case of ‘the cities with more votes than total number of eligible voters that “the investigated cases fraud totaled 3 million votes but that doesn’t affect the election results”. When Mr. Karroubi (the cleric and the more reformist presidential candidate) responded, the response was censored even in Mr. Karroubi’s newspaper Etemade Melli (National Trust Daily.) If you look carefully some of Mr. Karroubi’s phrases from his response are missing, and wording does not resemble Mr. Karoubi’s usual wording. Such is the environment that they have created throughout the country. We definitely won’t act illegally, we would act based on laws. Issues that Dr. Hazeri (one of the attendees who spoke before Mousavi) touched on are very significant and beneficial; these problems should get out there and be discussed….

There are many ways to voice your objections while keeping within the frameworks of the law. Of course, some are creating an atmosphere (of enmity). Today, Kayhan’s (most prominent pro-Ahmadinejad newspaper) headline was about (people’s) angry waves of vengeance from Mousavi. These personal attack are character assassinations to stop this movement. I believe with our canny and clever people these (character assassinations) would fire backwards. What they say would radicalize the atmosphere and create some problems but would bring no benefits to the legitimacy of the current government.

My view, of course hoping to god’s will I hope I am wrong, is that the Guardian Council will ultimately declare no fraud. Then a government will be formed base on legal procedures that exist and will continue on. However, if the previous government had the problem of being incompetent, deceiving, and many other problems that it created for itself and for the country, this government would have an additional problem on their hands; it will suffer from lack legitimacy. There will be doubts whether this government is rightful or not, and such doubts will make the government very vulnerable internationally and nationally, this would even make it possible that government would give away privileges to foreigners. That’s how the governments act when they weaken. We also know from signs and previous events that in the past whenever the current government has had such problems they’ve backed down.

It’s the same story with internal affairs. We (with the incumbent government staying in power) would find many problems. The crucial issue is what other forces would do when the new government (of the incumbent) is supposed to become official through the inauguration and the sworn-in ceremony in the parliament. This is one of our most important questions without any answers. Yesterday in a meeting there were talks that considering the recent events, and new awareness, we must act. This should not mean we stand against the government meaning that god forbid whatever they do we sabotage. However, we should organize nationally and independent from the government to take actions that are possible.

There is an important point here. They are after a hegemony from the current situation. They want to put people’s contentment and satisfaction to support their illegal actions. This is a critical point here. This means that they want to convince people that in regards to all (the post election disputes) that happened they were right and everybody else was wrong; that there was no fraud in this very healthy elections and everything turned out just fine in the end. We can’t submit to this. It’s our right to stand up through legal channels and declare that this incident (election fraud) was not fortunate , and if there’s no awareness (on this incident) this could establish the fundamentals for a dictatorship and god forbid lead the nation on an ominous path.

I introduced, early on in the elections, the discourse on issue of evading the rules of law (and how they plant the seed for dictatorship). I never thought we would reach a point where the election itself would be the solemn support for my arguments of dangers that I warned about from the beginning; this is the most important issue in our nation. This (election) showed that audacities of some to evade the laws can be stretched to extents that it is now; existence of such behaviors would make anything (ominous) possible in our nation.

Despite all this, they would only be able to stabilize their hegemony if they convince people to reconcile with the election results. They have to force those devoted religious forces [to accept] that nothing has happened, and everything (all the fraud cases) have happened in accords to the Islamic laws in place and that these justify all the crackdown on newspapers and imprisonments. This is what we need to push to get out there, to campaign on so that we can keep our constitution alive; our religious beliefs, independence of our nation and the rest of the revolutionary values that formed our fundamentals of our society with the leadership of Imam (Khomeini). I believe everybody has a say in this and has a role to play. Everyone must rely on their own creative talents to do something. We should eventually come together in our thoughts and locate common routes that we can all agree on. Till then, I think we must do something (to accommodate) whoever, with whatever plans and creativity, does something; just like how I’ve said each citizen is a medium; so that we can push on this agenda to some extent.

Rapport with different classes including the religious leaders

Fortunately, in the national arena we have the support of various classes of society specially the clergy who are grown sensitive to recent events. We occasionally saw clerics in the election and protest rallies, and our friends here know that. There are movements in Qom (the seminary city of Qom holds one of the largest school of Shiite Islam in Iran and is home to many grand clerics who act as religious leaders to the whole Muslim population and have many followers) and we have lobbied and met with some of the grand ayatollahs (top senior religious figures) of the city. The mere fact that these religious leaders have not approved the elections, despite all sorts of pressure to do so, is further proof to my words (that there are things happening in Qom.) But we need more work on this. Me, contacting, and camping and few others going back and forth to Qom is not going to do it. We must all feel the need here, and expand our relations with the grand ayatollahs. I believe we have good channels and informing the ayatollahs about your analysis or problems would have a positive influence.

The same course of action applies to the rest of society. We must try hard that our future movement does not step outside the system boundaries. This is dangerous to us and to the nation, and we don’t even believe in it either. My vision, is that we can move inside the system, but the system that the Imam Khomeini (the Grand Ayatollah who overthrew the Shah and established the Islamic Republic) defined with pure Islamic basis, stripped from lies and deceit, and toward clarity, bravery and accompanied by the type of rationalism coherent with the modern world. We would be critical in this framework, and this will be the base for our new movements.

There was another discussion on multiple people leading the movement. I believe in this (that this is the right way to go.) I have had talks with Mr. Karroubi and prior to that with Mr. Rezaei and Khatami. The movement would continue this way. Our intention is to expand this even further. The bigger this becomes the less vulnerable we’d become and the more we’d able to benefit from a collective will and rationale. In our future agenda too we are considering a collective movement, not individually. Of course, it’s possible that the wave be directed to me, but rest assured that this is not about me and it is a much greater aspect to it. The awareness that rose in the country is irreversible, meaning that it’s not possible to go back where we were six months ago even under any amount of pressure and appearances security forces on high alert. We must believe in this (irreversibility). However it’s not certain that we always move forward. There are always backlashes, and mismanagement could lead to some undesired outcomes, that’s why we must be watchful. This means that sessions like this must continue and information should be distributed. We must keep raising awareness. The movement must be managed properly specially considering the shock that people have had to bear.

One of our most important issues, is media. We solved our problem prior to the election by relying on the people. If you’ve noticed, we neither used TV nor any costly media. Even our posters were printed on A4 paper to save and reduce costs...as much as possible and in return we’d managed to get great amount of benefits.

However, there is a new modern perspective on use of virtual space in expanding truth that our youth took advantage of. This is our secret weapon. I don’t think we can get access to a mass medium anytime soon but by relying on virtual spaces, a belief in our youth and their creativity in using these new tools, we can fill up this media gap to some extent.

There was another topic about installing a satellite channel from outside the country. I think these options should be on the table, but the significant point here is that despite all the censorship and clampdowns (on websites and web logs) we stress on expanding our youth base and ask them to provide us with solutions to extend our news networks.

We have big problems here ( in regard to the media), especially with a strict one-way manner of broadcasting from IRIB. However, from the my own experiences these omni-directional exaggerations broadcasted in support of diminishing our movement would fire backwards on them. Nonetheless they (their propaganda) could cause doubt, and disorder within us and I can see the effects myself sometimes. What I mean is that on the first day, there was no question whether there was fraud or not, everyone felt like there was. But people have been asking by now about the true stats, the real results and the reasons behind the fraud. That’s why we must work on ourselves. What I say is that the media are effective: when someone (comes on TV) and blasts everyone (in the movement), true that this would make people angry, but it’d also raise questions deeper within their thoughts, question that they cannot answer alone (based on the limited access they have to information). That’s why we should find ourselves responsible to resolve these questions.

As Mr. Hazeri knows well, even from early stage of this campaign we were a small group but a our campaign gained great amount of power from the contact that it established with the masses of people, and from people’s trust in us. That’s what is needed right now. There was delicate work done from this trust of the people that is that we said we are not going to constrain any creativity. Anyone is free to do what they want, and this worked for us. Right now that’s what we need. That’s why this group gathered around here, could think within themselves of ways to open up this blockade on flow of information so that we can have access to a medium. In regards to legal support (for establishing media) we had a great and knowledgeable person working with us Mr. Amir Arjmand who’s been detained and is now in prison. There are other strong people around who helped out. We have also recently noticed that we need great work in this area.

Necessity of capitalizing on people’s creativities and inclinations

There were talks about plainclothes officers. Presence of such officers as you know is very illegal. I have voiced my objection to this. We also wrote a legal document which caused reactions from Chief of Police and some other institutions (context: people within security institutions denied associations with such plainclothes officers, and tried to label them as rebels within the crowd) which should reveal to you how sensitive this case is. I believe we should continue a legal and lawful protest against this presence. Such an act could close up (at least some) opportunities for these forces to be used. Because those who use security forces against people can’t legally hold their forces on the streets without any uniform, not every organ of security forces commit to this continuously, which makes presence of plainclothes officers even worse (in that nobody is willing to take their responsibility.) People too have shown a strong and persistent reaction against these (plainclothes) forces, and we must capitalize on that. Some of our friends here mentioned that some of these plainclothes officers have been identified by people using their pictures on different website; Such methods are good and could be effective; this could restrain their presence. We should also continue working from the legal and political channels to protest against this so that we can wipe these issues off this nation. If we have police forces and security forces, they should react to such illegalities so that we can rid of these problems from our country.

Another question was asked that addressed why I entered the electoral battle without a campaign team. I had my own view of how the situation would developed, and I don’t think I made a mistake that I declared (my candidacy) late. In any case, if I had declared my candidacy a year earlier I would have not even made it to the elections; they wouldn’t have let me make it. I wanted to declare my candidacy on the 15th of Esfand or even later (last month of the Persian calendar, corresponding to late February) so that I would have time to organize and plan out so that we can gather our friend and move carefully. That’s why I declared it on the 15th. I even tried to get the message across without actually saying it that I can’t declare that I am running now, because there would have been an atmosphere (of enmity created against me through character assassinations, personal attacks, false accusations, and associations by proxy) to destroy my image, among many other things. I believe I acted realistically with regards to this. If I had declared it couple of couple of months earlier around Mehr (September) I would have not have probably even lasted till Nawrooz (new year in March). Anyhow, (admittedly) this (extent of fraud) was not something I had anticipated. I do agree that we’ve all been surprised. The recent news of the extent of fraud shows clearly that the extent was much more than I anticipated. I was also not anticipating the extent of interest the Supreme Leader took in the incumbent. If I had known about this, I may have changed some of my perceptions.

We had another problem too in this elections, the very important problem of campaign head-starts. Issues here are no more legal than other acts of fraud during the election. Issues (mentioned earlier) are problems that even with a sound election would necessitate nullifying the elections; just like someone who starts with the wrong epilogue (the epilogue to the prayers is Vozoo: act of washing the hands and face and anointing the head and feet) would be praying a null prayer. That’s why the introductory acts are illegal and against the law. Things like distributing money, falsifications of facts. And another one that was just discovered that there were laws on how to distribute subsidies from oil income; Parliament has objected to what has happened. It’s obvious that because of the elections the parliament has postponed the issue. Other things like the breakdown of SMS (Short Message Service text) networks occurred during and before the elections that...could have crippled us. We had based our whole communication system based on these networks. With all of constrains brought about to our election supervisors we had relied to these networks to communicate. (and we were assured too that this network is reliable, we had a whole group of computer and information processing specialists in a headquarters to process and organize all the information received, with the collapse of the networks all this was useless. When we protested to what has happened with two of our groups approaching two bodies of TCI (the only state-owned telecommunication company of Iran) we got nothing, they dodged responsibility claiming that "we didn’t do it". The shutdown orders did not come from us.’ This wasted our time and led to even more constraints.

One of our friends here had asked, where are we headed with all this? The "where" would definitely cover the current state of affairs (in regards to continuation of the protests) and could even be stretched as far as the next month or even year. It all goes back to analysis of what has happened in our country until right now (from the election), based on the analysis we are going to evaluate our opportunities and anticipate possible processes to unfold and plan accordingly. There could be discussion here that would take a whole session by itself. Those sociologists and political scientists amongst us could allocate some time to these issues. They could sit down and discuss issues, and think about short and long term solutions out of this mess.

There is a another thing that is of utmost important; that is the forces that take interest and have attended the elections themselves come from different brands of thought. Some say that street protests should stop and shift to a different format, some disagree. Some are radical, and some advocate a more conservative approach. Such discussions should keep happening so that we can collectively find solutions. Differences definitely exist between your friends and between our fellows too.

Hopefully we should reach some conclusion. Right now we are according certain necessities. There are some issues that we just have to follow after people. Many of the incidents that happened after Friday (the election day) were not organized by any one centralized group or organization; such is that massive rally on Monday that many of our friends here attended too. Our perception was that only a few would come out. My own presence, even if I were beaten a little, would at least reduce the violence against people and give them something to reduce their anguish. We attended the rally with this perception, but the immensity of the rallies and the presence of the people was much more than what we had anticipated. Or the rallies in Toopkhone Square (note: it’s ironic because the square is named after the leader of the revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini; the name that Mr. Mousavi uses to refer to the square is the name that common people use all the time which should reveal degree of informality during this speech) were not organized from a headquarters either.

Right now too (arbitrarily organized) movements such as these keep happening. I’ve said this even in the statements that the idea of green color too came to us from people, there wasn’t a group of scientists trying to think this through and advertise it with people. In one of our trips to the provinces a roughly 18-19 year old boy suggested the idea and they put a green scarf around me, and they told the reporters too mind you that I think it’s a good color, I am not bad with aesthetics due to my occupation as an artist (painter). We thought this would go out well, and Fateh (another senior member of Mousavi’s inner circle) and others thought it’s a good idea too, and this (green color) became the symbol, and managed to get many around itself and turned itself into a flag. This helped because of the great value our people have put into this color through out history that we have always associated this color with the great prophet, his family, and allies. That’s why the color has a religious tone to it and people have a good image and are comfortable feeling with this color. It’s also one of the colors in our national flag, and a color in nature too. God greatly helped us too. Our fortune with this color was great and it became very influential throughout the whole nation. Things (ideas) like these came out of people. I am not saying that we should not have any plans and just follow what people do, but that we should plan properly and follow people when we can, it’s a two way thing.

Dr. … insisted that between the significance of our Iranian nationality and Islamic roots, we must rely on Islamism in our system; that it’s the Islam of our system which is in peril. (I believe) this is right. But let me tell you about an episode which taught us a lesson during the campaign. In our campaign trips to Rasht (center of a province in among one of the greenest provinces in Iran) during our heated discussions about cultivating tea leafs and why they are uneconomical when Iranian farmers grow Iranian tea based on their sense of nationality and honor, I noticed that despite imports of tea that kills the profit for these farmers, being oblivious to our own products is being oblivious to our strong sense of nationality and honor which is very strong throughout the whole country.

It came to my mind that we can talk to people about many issues from similar perspectives. That’s why, when I talked about rice and rice imports hurting our own growth in that court in a gym in Rasht, and about how this is harmful to our economy and is a disregard to our sense of nationality, and about where our hundreds of years of love and yearning for Iran has gone, the crowds got very excited. And there was strong sense of nationality in that court. We expanded this to our national campaign, and we always got very excited response in Isfahan, and other places whenever we introduced issues in a the light of our sense of nationality. Without me saying anything, people started shouting “Iran Iran” and hitting the ground with their feet. I think this sense of nationality is something that in these past 20 years has been very lost. Because I believe the great departed Imam (Ayatollah Khomeini) put a great value to these feelings. It’s also true that discussions around this topic (whichever Islamism or nationality should be insisted) have been there in past 20 years. For our future, an future full of hardships until the country stabilizes, we need to return to these values to excite people and unite them around goals that would keep our country safe and would lead us toward solutions that are beneficial to the country. Such acts would help with our own integrity in pushing for groups that would become active economically and culturally.

When we talk about Iranian-hood, just like Dr. Shariati (one of the most prominent of Muslim sociologists and thinkers of the years prior to the revolutions) used to say, when we return to the composing elements of our society most of the fabric of our society is Islamic, and we can’t separate our nationality from Islamic traditions. We don’t have an Iranian-hood without the Islam, this is what the last regime used to do and it lost, In the (years of) Islamic revolution, and even before the revolutions Dr. Motahari (another very prominent but more Islamist sociopolitical thinker) talked about similar issues and that was one of his most important books. After the revolution too, this has always been with us, but we’ve never benefited form it as we should have.

This is situation where we can use this (sense of nationality). Many of the wrong and harmful policies that cause disadvantage and fallbacks is because of lack of this sense and the yearning for our country.

In another hall in Zanjan (another capital of Iran’s provinces), I was among a group of students, some of these kids that were bothering (others). They were waving a Palestinian flag. I said that it’s true we like Palestine and have defended it and this (support) has always been a slogan ever since the revolutions. But in a group meeting that we are talking about elections of Iran, what meaning does that flag has? Students started shouting chants, and the person was embarrassed and lowered his flag. There, when I was going to talk about these slogans and issues, I remembered Yaser Arafat coming to Iran as our first international guest when Imam (Ayatollah Khomeini) was told that he was going to make a trip to Khozestan (southern province of Iran with extensive oil resources) and Imam asked to stop him, concerned that he was going to take advantage of the Arab minorities living in Khozestan.

We have forgot about this (Iranian nationality) especially in this last four years, and we must return to these values. This can have a great influence over our messages and our future plans, I believe in this, and I would follow through with it. There are solutions suggested like boycotting the Seda-Sima (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) which I don’t’ want to get into. There was criticism that I did not anticipate such moves. It’s only true that I didn’t. I didn’t anticipate the extent of it. However, what I think we should view as an opportunity here is what has happened (recently.) What happened (the massive organized fraud, coup …Mousavi avoids using some of these words) was not a hasty act of self-defense. Instead what has toppled this election is a something that has been developing within our country and our establishment for years, and thanks to recent events it has revealed itself and its dangers. Such new findings should be seen as an opportunity.

Let’s pay attention to what people’s preferences are. Expensive methods would reduce people’s support for us. We shouldn’t be thinking that we can’t fight back through legal channels. When all the talk about lying was getting out there people came up with that very amazing poster where they sketched a “Lie” and covered it with a “Stop Sign”: “Lying is forbidden.” As someone with a bit of expertise on arts myself, I say this is one of the most amazing and most expressive posters designed ever (in hundred years). I never stepped into a city after that incident where I haven’t seen that sign again. Rest assured, some (ominous) deeds have been conducted in this nation and the election revealed these (deeds) and they became posters. This condemnation of a "Lie" (in posters) is not only condemning the deceit in the government but is also (a condemnation) of the desire to create lies and deceit; (the same) lie and deceit that unfortunately is created deep inside us all due to different (from our proper revolutionary values and thus wrong) policies that we had towards cultural issues.

Prior to the election, people tried to overcome this issue (of deceit and lies within us). The green waves that started and stretched from Tajrish (one side of the city in North with the well higher above average incomes) to Rah-Ahan (all the way to the other side with more middle and poorer classes) were (all) created on this very issue; to move beyond this deceit and hypocrisy which has shredded our nation to pieces, a nation of different groups and customs. This is why, when I see the (subject of) lie and the posters – I don’t know who drew this poster, since it’s a populist poster too with language of streets, but it seems like it is this very language the has contributed so much to the popularity of this poster. I guess that we can build on the opening that has revealed the (incumbent’s) government for what it really is and on appetites within the heart of our society (a phenomena that we must try to understand) and push forward with this movement.

People also showed us the solutions. People aspire to be together, be cheerful, and love Iran and be able to advance it ahead; (they aspire to) science, tolerance for one another, and that there’d be freedom.

Something funny happened to me that I told Mr. Khamenei (the current supreme Leader who at the time of Khomeni’s leadership had been president with Mousavi acting as his vice-president) too. I’ll tell you about it too to lighten up the mood here. One (campaign day) I was driving to Yaft-Abad from Navab St. (streets of mid to south Tehran)We happened to ride beside a Peykan (a decreasingly in some areas but still very common car on the streets of Iran manufactured internally) with Ahmadinejad (supporters) passengers. They recognized me, stretched their heads out of the windows holding posters of Mr. Ahmadinejad and yelling the slogan:” Freedom of expression, cannot be done with, something, and uhhm, and something.” (during the debates Mousavi was not as fluent as people would expect a presidential candidate to be. Ahmadinejad supporters are making fun of Mousavi here through the slogan.) I told our driver to slow down so that we can driver closer to them, and we (Mousavi and Ahmadinejad supporters) started chatting and joking. We were doing this for almost a good 10 to 15 minutes, I did not sense any enmity, like any tendency from them to want to throw something at me, or conduct agitated driving, or me feeling that I’ve been berated.

So, this was our spirit before the elections that variety of groups with different ideas would come together. If the establishment had capitalized on this, certainly, we would have had more centrist approaches on the speed of our progress (in the country.) I guess, one of our future projects should be reviving this very spirit through out our nation. We must take a stance against any action that would encourage disparity between classes of people. We must not gain a reputation of favoring those who are with us and not those who are against us. Our nation is one and there are different ethnicity and ideas that tolerate each other. If someone is a felon, well, they’d take him and put him behind bars. As for the rest of people, when they are innocent they can live their lives together and tolerate each other (in his words he’s advocating the policy of innocent until proven guilty against the policy of pre-emptive strike).

The election, and the environment prior to the election revealed that this is possible. People here ask me for a sample. An example is the nights prior to the elections when people poured into the streets without the slightest of confrontation. We must not let these achievements go to waste. We must add this to our vocabulary, and use as the achievement. In our communication with people we must regard it as an achievement.

We must not – they accuse me, not personally me but it’s unimportant now – act in such a way to expose us to accusations of illegality. This is a very important point. We shouldn’t think that we can’t confront and voice our concerns through legal channels. We have examples of people who fought and got results (using similar methods) around the world and in our country. We must note that the hardships in this method is not any less than the illegal methods. Some think that a revolutionary method is to ignore consequences and as they say "just get down with it". No, legal approaches have their own problems, hardships and headaches, but they would provide the country with something more stable instead. This approach would help us bond with other classes of society, bond with cleric classes, gather people together and reduce risks and costs for those classes who want to take part in mass activities.

If people are involved and exposed in a movement for a long time, it’s going to harm them. Naturally, with country’s current problems and the economic situation, their support would deteriorate. We must not let the official format (of the current government) become hegemonic, meaning that they have got the people to cope with whatever. We must raise and discuss these issues so that people are aware.

Action within the frameworks of the system

I have pointed this out before that hopefully (if God is willing) our actions too should remain in the frameworks of the system. Now our strategizing units should take care of questions like what organizational work we should take on, or things like necessity of a new party through brainstorms. Yesterday we had a discussion with a group of friends and managerial executives of the country. We talked about how the course of action that the (incumbent) government took, has ignored and alienated an immense force. If university professors and elites of the country stay with this (immense force ignored by incumbent) we can organize a national project through different NGOs active in economic, cultural and political issues while at the same time come together, centralized, all following the same goals. This is a challenging work, but it’s very doable, and we can take it on. This would consequently allow us to keep those forces that have recently risen alive and awake; and fight hopelessness as the most fearful condition we could be led to.

I remember many of you when we joined together to make this crowd 25 years ago. You were all young. I was here from the very beginning. You have all grown up now and have children. You probably have children that had turned away from politics, but have accompanied you this time around [people in the crowd: not only accompanied but also stepped further ahead of us], ok and stepped further ahead of you, [people in the crowd: and now they are hopeless], Alas, this is what I’m talking about, we must do something that they (the younger ones) would not yield to hopelessness, we must do something that they wouldn’t lose hope, we must open up a new way and tell then that future maybe full of hardships but it’s a doable future to make.

Our whole system of governance is not limited to the presidential government, and our whole history is not 4 years or 8 years. We are a country with a long history. History tells us we are 2500, 3000 years old, but we have artifacts dating back to 12000 years. We have a long ancient history. We’ve had countless ups and downs, and this is one of those ups and downs. It’d require sacrifice. Some may not survive. Some would rise up and others would fall down. However, in the grand scheme of our history all this would have minimal influence. We must get this across to our young ones. We must tell them that this is some hard work, nobody would just hand you a well developed future. I don’t think that there’s a well-developed country that has not gone through these phases. What I mean is that, all countries have gone through some challenging routes, and we are no exception.

Hopefully (if God is willing) we should inspire our youth with a hopeful spirit and maintain the unity of the nation and push forward with it. We must also think of solutions, practical solutions. Managing our current position in the incoming month, would one of the most arduous phases. There are many possibilities. Obviously, our establishment would have paid minimally if it would have investigated the truth, and everybody would have abided by the results. Now whether we find a solution or not; well, Mr. Khatami (a former and first reformist president of Iran) has taken action for a solution and some of the Ayatollahs of Qom (the seminary city), have devised a solution, some of the higher ranking people within the system too are looking for solutions, to see whether they can find a way out.

Now, like the annulment of any second stage in the election process, or the ostensible investigators’ committee (fact-seeking committee) with ideas just to wrap stuff up, our solutions are almost, not completely but at least almost, impossible to conclude to anything practical. I am not very optimistic on this, but this is a phase we must go through. Same (pessimism is expected) from the Guardian Council, hopefully (if god is willing) I am wrong that they would act partially, we can only pray that they would act impartial. They could at least assuage people a bit even if they find 5% fraud, and they come out and declare that 5% as illegal actions committed during the election.

Now, the extent to which they are willing to admit to this (fraud) is another thing, but the important things are what course of action we would take and what people’s expectations are. Some people shout very radical slogans. There were slogans saying: “Mousavi, Mousavi, get our votes back” as if I have collected the votes myself. (Mousavi chuckling) In the crowds I replied that “I don’t have the votes with me!” (audience in the room laughing) I told them that we would all try and will get our votes back together. (audience in the room now shouting slogans too: “get our votes back, get our votes back”) Yes, of course, get our votes back. Of course, people are getting more realistic and they know that our resources are very limited, they are adapting to this reality (of limited resources) and (instead) they are organizing themselves within themselves.

In the current situations (of people getting detained) this issue, and continuing on (with the movement), is naturally accompanied by many costs and possible harms, which should makes questionable whether this would continue on or not. What Dr. Hazeri said earlier on in this meeting is very important. It should be discussed and talked about so that we can find approaches on our next steps. For now, we have a shabby little campaign headquarters. They’ve attacked us, they took whoever could have been more helpful and influential and locked them away until they got to top senior members.

The same Alireza Beheshti (Son of Ayatollah Beheshti. The father was assassinated by People’s Mujahedin (fighters) of Iran (hereafter MKO) bombings during the war, who was the first head of judiciary courts in the Islamic republic and one of the three closest and most influencial men on Ayatollah Khomeini the leader of the revolution along with Rafsanjani – now head of Assembly of Experts and Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council. and Khamenei – the Supreme Leader.) when he got arrested in our newspaper headquarters; he was one of the most influential of our people. We thought they would arrest both brothers (both sons are close friends and consultant to Mr. Mousavi) and they got really close to arresting them too, but they decided to let them go.

We are analyzing our current position, hopefully (if God is willing) we would take decisions that are in line with our national interests and religious beliefs. We should not leave our principles no matter how radicalized the environment turns out to be, even if we have to sacrifice ourselves for it. We are committed to avoid lies, act truthfully, accept something if it turns out right, and committed to open up if a proper solution would come about even if it would harm us. I know that if our intentions are good, God too would help us.

I here take stand and swear that all the incidents that have happened were significant events and I don’t associate them with any weaknesses in our management. We were a bunch, among us Mr. Manouchehri who laughs a lot because he knows this. (Mousavi chuckling himself) You (Mr. Manouchehri) do know. (audience laughs) We were a group of friends and people we decided to run and to act and strategize the way we did. Because of our honesty, God blessed us and this nation-wide environment was created as an asset for our nation. In future too we will believe in our own abilities and we would rely on our own ethics and of course we must have aptitude in our management to move within our frameworks. I am confident and hopeful that definitely (in the end) this movement will be beneficial to our nation.
Wednesday
Aug192009

The Latest from Iran (19 August): Challenges in Parliament and from Prisons

NEW Is Rafsanjani (or Ahmadinejad) A Spent Force? The Sequel
Text of Latest Karroubi Statement “You Will Not Force Me Into Silence”

The Latest from Iran (18 August): Which Way for the Government?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis


IRAN GREEN

1700 GMT: More, Much More on that Assembly of Experts Meeting. The Executive Committee's agenda appears to have been a delay in the next meeting of the Assembly, which was due to take place within the next 10-12 days, for a month because of Ramadan.
This rules out any quick intervention by the Assembly in the political crisis.

But the big question: who asked for the delay? Was it the head of the Committee, Hashemi Rafsanjani, to give himself time for his next moves? Or was it the other members --- former head of judiciary Hashemi Shahroudi, Mohammad Yazdi, Prosecutor General Ghorban Ali Dorri Najafabadi, and Ahmad Khatami --- all of whom are more supportive of President Ahmadinejad?

1605 GMT: The Executive Committee of the Assembly of Experts has met, but there are no details of the agenda or content of the discussion.

1550 GMT: There is still no news on whether the President has formally submitted his Ministerial nomination to Parliament.

1415 GMT: Report that Mohammad Reza Jalaiepour, an activist close to Mohammad Khatami, will be released from detention today. Journalist Zhila Bani Yaghoub has been released on $200,000 bail.

1405 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi has written to Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to confirm that he is ready to present his evidence of the abuse of detainees.

1230 GMT: Mowj-e-Sabz claims that a group of senior clerics have met the Supreme Leader and criticised the behaviour of his son, Mojtaba, but "to no avail".

1225 GMT: Did the President Miss the Deadline? The official Parliamentary News Agency has an item at 1530 local time (1100 GMT), 30 minutes before the deadline for the President to submit his Cabinet nominations. Aboutourabi Fard, the anti-Ahmadinejad Deputy Speaker, says no letter had been received.

It is now almost an hour after the deadline.

1220 GMT: The new head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is moving briskly with appointments: Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie has become Prosecutor General, replacing Ghorban Ali Dorri-Najafabadi.

Hmmm....Would this be the same Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie fired as Minister of Intelligence by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a few weeks ago? Perhaps someone should give the President the latest news.

1130 GMT: EA source says that President Ahmadinejad's nationally-televised address, announcing his Ministerial nominations, has been postponed until tomorrow night after 9 p.m. local time.

1055 GMT: The Rah-e-Sabz website, quoting "reliable sources from Tehran", reports that Karroubi is resurrecting his plan from 2005 for the "Saba" satellite channel.

The plan was shelved four years ago after direct intervention by Ali Larijani, then chair of the National Security Council, who deemed the plan "an act against national security". Karroubi then founded the Etemade Melli newspaper to reach the masses.

Now Karroubi is threatening to get serious with the satellite channel should the regime's ban on the newspaper remain in place. Initial launch preparations are underway and "a group of film makers based inside the country" is willing to take part. The headquarters would be set up in another Mideast country (an EA correspondent suggests the United Arab Emirates), and the goal would be to air the "real news" that the state media neglects.

1045 GMT: To the Wire. Mehr News says President Ahmadinejad has still not decided on the appointments of three Ministers. Tabnak, however, says only one post (Justice) is still to be determined for the final submission to Parliament. The names of those Ministers who have been proposed, in both articles, are those posted earlier in Press TV/Fars accounts (see 0900 GMT).

0940 GMT: Saham News claims that a commission is investigating the Mosharekat and  Mojahedin political parties with a view to amending the law to prohibt contacts and exchange of views and information with foreign embassies and acceptance of foreign financial aid. An EA source confirms that this process started about six weeks ago.

0900 GMT: The President's Cabinet? Press TV, citing Fars News Agency, reveals Ministerial nominees. Among the appointments: Manouchehr Mottaki remains as Foreign Minister, Kamran Daneshjou at Science, Research and Technology, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar as Minister of Interior, Mohammad Hosseini leading Ministry of Culture and the Islamic Guidance, and Ahmad Vahidi as Minister of Defense.

0855 GMT: And Yet More Support. The Association of Iran Alumni and Union of Islamic Associations of University Students have declared that they will not abandon Karroubi and other reformist leaders.

0850 GMT: The Green Wave of Support. We reported yesterday on the "reformist" front coming out in support of Mehdi Karroubi's position on abuse of detainees. Norooz have now published the text of the statement from the Islamic Iran Participation Front.

0820 GMT: Clarification on Reformist-Clerics Meeting (0740 GMT). Another EA correspondent explains, "Javad Shahrestani is not an Ayatollah, and most probably not even a mujtahid. He runs sistani.org from Qom and is the person who brought the Internet to the holy city and transformed it into a technology hub. However, he is not high on religious credentials. The fact that people refer to him as 'Ayatollah' underlies the attempt to indicate the higher level of these figures close to the opposition."

0740 GMT: A reader lets us know that the full English summary, provided by a Twitter activist, of Ayatollah Sanei's attack on the regime (full video in separate entry) is now available on the Internet.

0730 GMT: More Opposition Moves. An EA correspondent has verified news we saw yesterday, "The reformists Abdollah Nouri, Gholamhosein Karbaschi [former Mayor of Tehran and top advisor to Karroubi], and other reformists have been having separate meetings with Ayatollah Montazeri and Ayatollah Shahrestani, the son-in-law of Ayatollah Sistani [the leading Shia cleric in Iraq]. These reformists have requested that the Shia high clergy become more involved in the current issues of the country."

0650 GMT: We asked moments ago "whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive".

Hmmm, maybe not. Hojatoleslam Ali Saeedi, the Supreme Leader's liaison with the Revolutionary Guard, said yesterday, "[The] leaders of the recent unrest are still out of prison." Rounding up those leaders "could be the will of the nation and the media".

Saeedi also defended the regime's high-profile display of "confessions" by figures such as former Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi:

These confessions were of utmost importance, since they shed light on the core of "the ordeal" and the rings linked to it....It was not unexpected that the foreigners would take us for the likes of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. However, it was strange that some of our compatriots were deceived by the enemies and played by their rules."

0630 GMT: Deadline day for President Ahmadinejad, as he has to present his selections for Ministerial posts to Parliament. The furour over the President's relations with the legislature, which had peaked with controversies over the 1st Vice President and Ministry of Intelligence, has quieted in the last week, but several key MPs have warned that Ahmadinejad must put forward candidates with expertise and judgement.

On another front, our Enduring America debate over the challenge of Hashemi Rafsanjani continues. After yesterday's spirited discussion between two of our correspondents and our readers, we've posted a sequel with the views of a third EA analyst. There is a clear split in our community on not only Rafsanjani's position but that of the President: some see Rafsanjani playing a clever game as Ahmadinejad loudly struggles, others see the President in the ascendancy. And, thanks to our readers, important factors such as the Revolutionary Guard, the "principlist" political bloc, and the Army have also been brought into the arena.

For me, however, the emerging story yesterday was the clear signal that the Green opposition has not gone away. While the organisation of public protest is still fragmented, many key secular and clerical figures rallied around Mehdi Karroubi's demand that the Government investigate and punish those responsible for abuse of detainees. Karroubi reiterated the protest in his statement, "You Will Not Force Me Into Silence", and Mir Hossein Mousavi, Ayatollah Bayat-Zanjani, and the "reformist" front were among those who offered high-profile endorsements. These complemented the "hot" Internet story of the day, the video of Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing attack on the regime.

As I've said on several occasions, the regime may be keeping the opposition vibrant --- ironically --- by trying to break it with detentions, confessions, and trials. Today's planned 4th trial of post-election political prisoners has been postponed until next Tuesday, raising the question as to whether some in the Government have realised that the high-profile hard line may be counter-productive.

If this is just a pause, however (and one of the rumours yesterday was that politician Saeed Hajjarian would be amongst the defendants), we will not only be considering the President's Cabinet and Rafsanjani's future. The Green Path of Hope, which Karroubi and Mohammad Khatami joined yesterday, may be more than a symbol.
Tuesday
Aug182009

Iran Debate: Is Hashemi Rafsanjani A Spent Force?

Iran: Is Rafsanjani (or Ahmadinejad) A Spent Force? The Sequel
The Latest from Iran (18 August): Which Way for the Government?

Receive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and Analysis


RAFSANJANI2Throughout yesterday, there was a fascinating (and, I think, important) debate between two of Enduring America's specialists on Iran, Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones, about the political fortunes of Hashemi Rafsanjani. The discussion not only considers whether the former President retains a significant influence over the future of the Islamic Republic but also looks at the positions of the Supreme Leader and President Ahmadinejad. Feedback from readers would be welcome, as I believe this may be one of the defining contexts for the outcome of this post-election crisis:

SMITH: I think that Rafsanjani has been giving up his "Godfather" role within the Green movement progressively. If you add up his non-reply to [Mehdi] Karroubi's letter [on abuse of detainees], his embarassing retreat from Friday prayers, and today [appearing with President Ahmadinejad], you get the impression of someone who is deeply distressed but does not feel secure enough to embark on a major confrontation with the state power. It is unnerving in the sense that, as the Mehr photos show [of the Rafsanjani-Ahmadinejad encounter], it is actually Rafsanjani that is adopting a body language geared towards subordination, and not the other way round. The gesture is the single most important "frame" to have come out of elite circles in Iran afte the shoulder kiss of Ahmadinejad to the Supreme Leader during his inauguration.

JONES: But then again, what did Rafsanjani have to gain from replying to Karroubi's letter? That's a hot potato that even [Mir Hossein] Mousavi is wary of handling. I do agree that Rafsanjani is deeply distressed (something his brother made clear), but I'm not sure his "Godfather" role was anything but a superficial and transitory collision of interests. Now Rafsanjani is unsure how his interests are best served and is thus "pausing". This also coincided with the emergence of the Majlis [Parliament]hmin challenging Ahmadinejad, a dynamic in which Rafsanjani was less involved.

I think when he does get around to speaking at Friday Prayers, we will have a much better understanding of his peace of mind and tactical re-appraisal.

SMITH: Rafsanjani's speech on July 17 was quite genuine, as was the distress he vented out through his brother on the Iranian Labor News Agency. But he has realised that Khamenei has gone for brute force and that it's better for himself and his family to back down. So my gut feeling is that there is more than transitory interests here, but he is by now emerging as a spent force. The one and last stand he could/might make is the next Assembly of Experts meeting, whenever that will take place; however, despite all this prodding from former MPs, Grand Ayatollahs, etc. that we have been seeing in the form of all these anonymous letters calling for Khamenei's head, I doubt we shall see Rafsanjani substantiating these.

A passing joke among myself and my Iranian contacts is that the Assembly of Experts communique dismissing Khamenei would not even reach the website of the Assembly before all those septuagenarians are carted away.

JONES: I agree that this pressure will have a lasting legacy. In effect, I think the parameters of Iranian political culture, memory and participation have been extended. In the short term, the regime equates compromise with weakness. In the longer term, such will be the fear of bringing millions of Iranians onto the streets that compromise will be equated with stability (perhaps even survival).

I can think of very few popular movements who have mobilised equivalent support and not gone on to extract or induce significant concessions or changes in the long term.

I guess the extent to which we see Rafsanjani as a spent force depends on our expectations of what he wanted to achieve and how realistic it was he could achieve it. The removal of Ahmadinejad? I don't think was achievable, and Rafsanjani eventually understood this. So, he settled for the effective neutering of Ahmadinejad's 2nd administration, which I think will happen. Khamenei was, in my view, equally never going to be removed. But Rafsanjani ultimately challenged him and is still standing- that's radical in itself. The question is, what has the last 2-3 months cost him? Has it cost Khamenei more or less?

SMITH: I would urge caution on Rafsanjani's capability of neutering Ahmadinejad's administration, but I agree that much has changed in the Iranian political landscape for good in the past two months, regardless of any future progress by the Green movement. However, I am sure that Khamenei has factored in some "cost" or "loss" when agreeing to go by with the hardliners, although I can't say whether he was really ready for this sort of reaction from the people.

As for Rafsanjani, well, he has paid a high price all along. He was lambasted by Ahmadinejad in the debates, has had people extremely close to him such as [Mohammad] Atrianfar, [Mohammad] Qoochani and others thrown into jail and paraded before TV long after his Friday prayer plea for their release, was forced to backtrack when he withdrew from the last Friday prayers [14 August], and today, according to one of the main columnists of Etemade Melli, he "bowed before Ahmadinejad like a servant does in front of his master". So, all in all, I have to stake my claim that he has not emerged in a very good posiition overall, although he has managed to cling on to some of his old powers and be somewhat "radical". But, as Iranian politics have thought us, its better to wait and see, starting from the Assembly of Experts meeting!

JONES: Do you think there was anything Rafsanjani could have done differently? This may be a curious case where none of the current "heavyweights" of the system have come off well, least of all Ahmadinejad (and Khamenei).

Raf's fortunes have ebbed and flowed: he was far more humilated by his loss to Ahmadinejad in 2005 than by the slurs in the 2009 debate. Fact remains, Rafsanjani is still more powerful than Ahmadinejad. The reason being that Ahmadinejad has never challenged the Supreme Leader and was effectively told to shut up and keep out of sight (something Khamenei could not do to Rafsanjani).

I don't think Rafsanjani expected those detained to be released; he wanted it on record that he had called for it. I also think that the mutterings about Rafsanjani are the continuation of old complaints, but the rumblings about Khamenei's suitability as Supreme Leader are something that have never ever come out before, even if they were felt privately by many). As you say, however, we will have to wait and see.

SMITH: I am still unsure of the real extent of Rafsanjani's power. On paper, he is as powerful as it gets, more so given that he survived an attempt to remove him from the leadership of the Assembly of Experts in February, meaning that he could technically count on a majority there.

As for his fortun, you should take the pre-electoral slurs and post-electoral moves as one big package. Not to forget the total sidelining of his concerns, as stated in the letter and three-hour meeting he had with Khamenei right before the elections. A close Rafsanjain associate boasted about the "positive signals" emerging from that meeting to several foreign diplomats, so you can appreciate the sort of "con" Khamenei played on his old associate.

The slurs against Rafsanjani were conducive, according to my own field work and those of others in Tehran before the elections, to a rise of votes for Ahmadinejad, while I will wait for the Assembly of Experts meeting to express my thoughts on his post electoral performance. However, in terms of real influence in state decision-making, I would say that Ahmadinejad is going quite strong. True, he is rebuked from all quarters, including the Supreme Leader, every now and then, but he has been remarkably successful in exerting his own viewpoints on the long-term evolution of many affairs of state, including the nuclear file, relations with the West, and the economy. He has driven the economy to shambles yet nobody has really managed to serious "punish" him for that, which is quite astonishing in its own right.