The Latest from Iran (30 August): Parliament Discusses the Cabinet

NEW Video: The Iftar Protests (30 August)
Iran Debate: How Weak (or Strong) is Ahmadinejad?
Today’s Gold Medal Iran “Expert”: Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post
The Latest from Iran (29 August): The Stakes Are Raised

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2100 GMT: The Mowj-e-Sabz website, which has been a vital source of information (if one reporting for the cause of the Green movement) during this conflict, is down. We're watching to see if it has been hacked out of existence.

1955 GMT: That #CNNFail Thing (see 1445 GMT). CNN staffer Samira Simone tweets from Atlanta, "More trouble for Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks", linking to a Saturday story in the Los Angeles Times on the disputed Ph.D. of the President's proposed Minister of Higher Education.

Meanwhile, no one on CNN's website seems to have noticed that a debate over "Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks" took place in the Iranian Parliament today. There is still no advance on their story about the President's speech at Friday prayers.

1915 GMT: Agence France Presse draws on the opinions of two high-profile "conservative" MPs to draw out the challenge to President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet nominees:

"Sixteen nominees have no experience required for the ministries they have been nominated for," said powerful MP Ahmad Tavakoli. "The cabinet lacks harmony in its view when it comes to handling crucial issues such as economic development. The views of candidates nominated to head the economy, oil and commerce ministries contradict that of the agriculture ministry nominee."

Another top conservative, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, said he will "definitely not vote for a few nominees: "Some nominees of four or five ministries have an educational background which is contradictory to their portfolios."

1830 GMT: The news that Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Chief Prosecutor, has been named as Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General, serving under the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, has caused consternation. Mohammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau assesses:

The move also provides some clues into [head of Iran judiciary Sadegh] Larijani’s thinking and his views about his tenure at the judiciary. Larijani does not appear to be interested in reforming the system or leaving a positive legacy. Ejeie himself is a hardliner, and both he and Mortazavi are strongly supported by Ayatollah Khamenei. Their appointments signal that the harsh tactics in dealing with the reformist leaders and the people supporting them will continue.

I'm still in "wait and see" mode while an EA correspondent writes, "I think [this] really highlights how things are not quite as they appear in Iran. We were all thinking that Sadegh Larijani is weeding the hard core Ahmadinejad henchment away from top posts, when suddently Mortazavi gets actually promoted. I am not an expert of the Iranian judiciary system, but would venture to say that it is effectively a promotion, although it needs to be seen how he will cope with his boss, Mohseni Ejeie."

1735 GMT: Protestors have gathered in front of the Amir Almomenin Mosque in Tehran. Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami had planned to join families of detainees for an Iftar (breaking of the Ramadan fast) meal, but the gathering was prohibited by authorities. We've posted video in a separate entry.

1640 GMT: Radio Farda has published a transcript (in Farsi) of President Ahmadinejad's speech in Parliament today.

1635 GMT: The Kargozaran Party, which associated with Hashemi Rafsanjani, has issued a statement of support for Mehdi Karroubi.

1520 GMT: Some urgent re-interpretation might be in order. According to BBC Persian, Saeed Mortazavi was not "fired" as Tehran's chief prosecutor. Instead, he's been moved at the judiciary to Deputy Prosecutor General.

1445 GMT: Credit to Associated Press, who have written a summary of the debate in Parliament, highlighting criticism of Ahmadinejad over the Iranian economy and noting specific hostility to his nominee as Minister of Energy, Massed Mirkazemi. (Unfortunately, they missed the humour of the "Peach" episode --- see 1230 GMT.) Credit also to MSNBC for picking up the story.

CNN continues its recent record of hopelessness: its last Iran story is from Friday, "Ahmadinejad urges stiff punishment for election dissenters".

1230 GMT: The Parliamentary debate has ended for the day. Parleman News has posted a running summary.

The overall headline appears to be that criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government, with principlists MPs pointing to a weak administration and reformists objecting to the lack of a substantial Government programme, will not stop general Parliamentary affirmation. Votes on individual ministers, which start on Monday, will be much trickier for the President.

So Ahmadinejad has avoided an immediate setback, but this does not mean he escaped ridicule. The moment that may capture the political imagination came when some Parliamentarians started shouting, "Peach! Peach!" That is an allusion to Ahmadinejad's television appearance last week, when he compared his former Minister of Health to "a peach I would like to eat".

1145 GMT: Parallel to our live blog coverage of the Parliamentary discussion, we've posted a lively debate --- drawing on the expertise of our Mr  Smith and Mr Johnson as well as blogs from Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau and Fintan Dunne --- on the political position of President Ahmadinejad.

1135 GMT: Parleman News have now posted a summary, via Mehr News, of the first session of Parliament on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. MPs of the majority principlist bloc have been fierce in their criticism of the President. I still expect Parliamentary approval of the Government, but the estimate of up to 7 ministers being rejected is still prominent.

1125 GMT: Meanwhile Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with members of the Etemade Melli party, emphasised that suspending their newspaper or filtering their website will not make them give up and that they will continue their efforts with strong determination. He added that on Quds Day (the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September) the authorities will witness people’s power once again and will know which side people are supporting.

1100 GMT: There is a Twitter report that tonight's Iftar (breaking of Ramadan fast), in which with Karroubi, Mousavi, Khatami, and families of detainees dined with the Reform Front Coordination Council, has been cancelled by authorities from the Ministry of Intelligence.

(We have now confirmed this via Saham News and the website of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party.)

1000 GMT: Parleman News is updating on the Parlimentary speeches, which initially will be over the acceptance of the Cabinet as a whole rather on individual Ministers. Our reading is that while some high-profile critics of President Ahmadinejad, such as Vice Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar, are maintaining their denunciation of a "weak" Administration, they will encourage the Majlis to offer its support by voting for the Government.

0835 GMT: An Inauspicious Start? While Press TV summarises Ahmadinejad's speech this morning to Parliament, Parleman News thinks the President may have mis-stepped even before he took the podium. Ahmadinejad showed up with bodyguards, an unprecedented measure that brought protests from reformist MPs.

0830 GMT: We've just read an opinion piece on Iran that was so jaw-droppingly, well, bad that we had to give the author, Jim Hoagland of The Washington Post, his own special space.

0710 GMT: The Secret Burials in Behesht-e-Zahra Cemetery. Hamid-Reza Katouzian, a member of the special Parliamentary committee investigating claims of post-election misconduct, has said that there are unidentified people buried in the cemetery but it is unclear whether there are the 40 protestors whom the opposition claim were interred on orders from security forces.

0700 GMT: Fintan Dunne has joined our debate from yesterday over the claim, launched in the Tehran Bureau, that President Ahmadinejad is "isolated, weak, and delusional".

Muhammad Sahimi was too dismissive in describing of Ahmadinejad...as "isolated and delusional", and erred in reducing the regime to the person of the President. But he was correct to describe Ahmadinejad as "weak"....

The regime is now tellingly reliant on a narrow base of IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] appointees to fill government posts. Ahmadinejad/IRGC's core 'hard' support is as low as 10% with a 'softer' support extending to up to 18% of the population. The disputed president's public pronouncements are reductionist and defensive --aimed at his own supporters and the ill-informed. By contrast, most other voices in Iranian politics are addressing the remaining 80%+ of the population.

Despite their hard-line rhetoric, Ahmadinejad/IRGC are unable to crush the reformers. It is going to be far harder to violently suppress any mass public protests in the weeks ahead. And there is a dire political problem looming for this one-legged regime: it's the economy, stupid!...As the weeks pass, the economy will join the stolen election as the twin key political issues for the populace.

0650 GMT: On the opposition side, there has been a lot of chatter about a report that Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karroubi, joining families of political detainees, will attend this evening's Iftar ceremony, when the daily Ramadan fast is broken, with the Reform Front Coordination Council.

0635 GMT: Attention this morning turns to the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament, where President Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial nominations come up for votes of confidence. The debates and votes are more than referenda on individual Ministers; they are also a key sign of how much support the President retains, especially amongst the majority principlist bloc.

While there have been reports this week that up to 7 of the nominations are in trouble, these are based more on the comments of a couple of highly-placed MPs rather than a survey of Parliamentary opinion. The safest assessment that can be made is that Ahmadinejad's 3 women nominees are unlikely to be approved; beyond that, several other Ministers will rise or fall depending on behind-the-scene manoeuvres and their own presentations to the Parliament.

The Latest from Iran (22 August): A Pause for Ramadan?

The Latest from Iran (23 August): An Anti-Ahmadinejad Bloc?

Iran's Most Wanted: Defense Minister Vahidi and the Interpol Warrant
The Latest from Iran (21 August): Political Battles
Video: The Sohrab Protests (20 August)

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2150 GMT: Before shutting down for the night, one more foreshadowing of our analysis tomorrow on "The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise". An EA correspondent offers further evidence. Mir Hossein Mousavi, in a meeting at the house of Dr. Mohsen Mirdamadi (who has subsequently been arrested) with the families of some of the detainee, said, "Principalists that have a conscience are separating themselves from the power-hungry fraction."

2130 GMT: Rafsanjani - We Told You So. A few hours after declaring that Rafsanjani was "closing ranks" with the Supreme Leader, the National Iranian American Council has discovered what we knew all along: Rafsanjani and his party are maintaining their flexibility, especially with their challenge to President Ahmadinejad. The NIAC reveals from the Iranian site Javan-e Farda that Rafsanjani's party is backing Mehdi Karroubi's position on detainees (which we picked up from Rafsanjani's speech today --- see 1715 GMT):

The Executives of Construction has released a statement announcing full support of Mehdi Karroubi’s position on the harassment issue. “Karroubi’s bravery, courage, and his compassionate approach in rooting out the current corruption in the country’s security and judicial apparatuses, is not only worthy of attention and congratulations, but has brought about an invasion of repeated attacks by various people and groups in the name of ‘defending the system.’ These behaviors serve as evidence of the ridiculousness of trying to combat reality.”

1715 GMT: The Anti-Ahmadinejad Compromise. After an unexpectedly lively Saturday afternoon, tomorrow's analysis (which in fact is what we've been projecting for weeks) is shaping up: there is a convergence of disparate forces agreeing on the need to curb the President's authority. In part, that comes from a closer consideration of Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement (which, apart from its declaration of loyalty to the Supreme Leader, is actually pretty close to the recent statements of Mehdi Karroubi). In part, it comes from news such as this....

The "conservative" newspaper Jomhori Eslami has declared, "The abuse of  prisoners is undeniable," citing the Supreme Leader's closure of Kahrizak detention center. Furthermore, "bringing up issues such as velvet revolution" are "fanciful fairy
tales" that must not be repeated, since "these claims have no effect other than providing a service to Iran's enemies by implying that the USA is very strong and has a very strong influence upon Iranian internal affairs".

The newspaper suggests that both "reformist" and "conservative" blocs "must accept mistakes they have made before and after the election, as accepting these realities is a step towards solving the existing problems".

1650 GMT: Just In Case You Were Wondering What the Revolutionary Guard Would Say (Because You Had Been Asleep for Weeks). Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, talking to Basij forces, "revealed" that foreign elements were behind the post-election unrest.

1645 GMT: And yet another reason. Parleman News has posted a summary of Rafsanjani's statement: the support for the Supreme Leader is in conjunction with a call for all to uphold the Constitution and follow guidelines in areas such as detentions. Violators should be punished.

1630 GMT: Another reason why Hashemi Rafsanjani's statement at the Expediency Council today should not be seen as a surrender (1530 and 1600 GMT): President Ahmadinejad was not at the meeting.

1620 GMT: The Regime Piles on Pressure? Our concern at a possible step-up in detentions of "reformists" (1245 and 1310 GMT) appears to be borne out. Mohammad Maleki, the 76-year-old former Dean of Tehran University, has been arrested.

1610 GMT: Oh, Please. Not even Press TV is buying this Government line, which comes out after reports noting that the nominee for Minister of Defense, Ahmad Vahidi, is wanted by Interpol for alleged involvement in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos Aires (see separate story). Note the scare quotes in this opening paragraph:

Iran says the international reaction to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's nominee for defense minister is a “Zionist plot” to undermine the new Iranian administration.

“[Ahmad] Vahidi was a deputy defense minister and this is a very senior political position,” Ahmadinejad's press adviser, Ali-Akbar Javanfekr, told AFP [Agence France Presse]. "Therefore it seems that this is a new trick being planned and is basically a Zionist plot."

1600 GMT: In case you're wondering after our previous entry, Rafsanjani's website offers no mention, let alone commentary, on the former President's statement at the Expediency Council.

1530 GMT: Hashemi's Surrender to Khamenei? Not quite.

The National Iranian American Council is making a big deal of Rafsanjani's opening statement at the Expediency Council today, claiming, "it now appears that he is closing ranks with supreme leader Ali Khamenei". It based the analysis on an Agence France Presse reports, quoting from Iranian news agencies, "Powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani urged Iran’s warring political groups on Saturday to follow the orders of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for ending the present political turmoil."

Hmm....The actual statement from Rafsanjani, according to the story, was “the current situation needs everyone to observe the leader’s decrees and advice". That's both very general and far from out-of-line with his stance since 12 June. The former Rafsanjani has never come out in direct opposition to Khamenei; any fight he has is with President Ahmadinejad.

Especially given the setting, a gathering of one of Iran's most powerful bodies, Rafsanjani's statement is simply that he is not taking apart the system of ultimate clerical authority. It remains to be seen where he takes his next step against the political leaders in that system. One could just as easily say, "Rafsanjani is hoping supreme leader Ali Khamenei closes ranks with him."

1325 GMT: Another Symbol for the Movement? We are getting a lot of correspondence from readers today about the testimony of a 15-year-old boy, summarised in The Times of London today, who claims he was raped in detention "in a large provincial city".

As journalism, there has to be some caution about the story as it is offered anonymously --- The Times uses a pseudonym for the teenager --- and cannot be verified. As politics (and, more importantly, as a story of humanity and inhumanity), it has to be recognised. In the words of The Times, "Reza is living proof of the charges levelled by Mehdi Karoubi."

1310 GMT: Very Disturbing Signals. Reports are coming in via Twitter of political activists, including Mehdi Karroubi's son, being arrested and summoned to the Government workers' court. We are seeking confirmation.1300 GMT: Be Our Friend. If I were a cynic (which I am not), I would say the Ahmadinejad Government had motives beyond economic co-operation in this development:

Iran plans to offer the majority of stake in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) production project to European companies, says a top Iranian energy official.

Three European companies have voiced interest in buying 80 percent of Iran LNG project, Mehr news agency quoted Ali Kheirandish, the head of Iran LNG Company, as saying on Saturday.

I presume none of these companies are from "foreign countries" accused by other Iranian officials of fomenting velvet revolution.

1250 GMT: Alireza Beheshti, Mir Hossein Mousavi's chief advisor, has extended Mousavi's recent comments about Election Day and its immediate aftermath. He claims that Mousavi’s campaign had meetings with the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and the judiciary to resolve the issues from the Presidential vote, but there were no will to do so. According to Beheshti, the campaign had reports that Mousavi was ahead in the vote but had signals that there might be manipulation of the ballots as early as 2 p.m. on Election Day.

Beheshti also told Etemaad that he and his family are ready to be arrested.

1245 GMT: A reliable Twitter source says Ebrahim Mehtari of the Mojahedin-Enghelab political party and Campaign 88 has been arrested.

1010 GMT: Take Your Book and Go Home. Authorities have responded to Ayatollah Sane'i's scathing video criticism of the regime by barring his religious monograph from the 17th Koran Exhibition in Tehran.

1000 GMT: Judicial Manoeuvres. The head of Iran's judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, is still looking for a replacement for Tehran's Chief Prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi.

0900 GMT: Battle of the Clerics. Parleman News follows up the story of the contrasting Friday prayer sermons in Tehran and Qom (see yesterday's updates and 0530 GMT), comparing the hard-line address of Ayatollah Jannati and the criticism of the regime by Ayatollah Amini.

0530 GMT: The holy month of Ramadan, in which Muslims abstain from eating, drinking, and smoking from dawn until dusk, has begun. The Supreme Leader's Office announced the start, based on expert sightings of the new month's moon. So have a quartet of Ayatollahs who have challenged the Government: Montazeri, Sanei, Bayat-Zanjani and Sistani.

Unsurprisingly, the day has begun quietly. Interestingly, the ripples of political challenge are on Press TV's website. It reports that "principlist" MP Ali Motahari, whose public criticism of the Ahmadinjead Administration emerged last month, has called the President's proposed Cabinet "feeble and not proportional to the country's capacities". His far-from-subtle attack claimed Ahmadinejad had picked Ministers for loyalty, not expertise: "Dependent cabinet members would deprive the government of reflective and clear-sighted staff....The President wants to control and rule sensitive ministries like the Intelligence, Interior, Oil, (Islamic) Guidance, and Foreign Affairs, therefore he has chosen dependent nominees to the posts."

The other story that continues to resonate on the website is the post from last night, "In Iran, arrest of opposition leaders is hot topic". The analysis is far from a condemnation of the regime: it features Ayatollah Jannati's call in Friday prayers for the detention of "ringleaders" of post-election demonstrations". At the same time, it frames those protests as legitimate, effectively questioning if not undermining Jannati's demand:

The re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president on June 12 sparked an outpouring of anger and contempt among Iranians and massive demonstrations were staged by supporters of defeated presidential candidates Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi who claim the vote was "fraudulent".