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Entries in Parleman News (2)

Sunday
Aug302009

The Latest from Iran (30 August): Parliament Discusses the Cabinet

NEW Video: The Iftar Protests (30 August)
Iran Debate: How Weak (or Strong) is Ahmadinejad?
Today’s Gold Medal Iran “Expert”: Jim Hoagland of the Washington Post
The Latest from Iran (29 August): The Stakes Are Raised

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AHMADINEJAD52100 GMT: The Mowj-e-Sabz website, which has been a vital source of information (if one reporting for the cause of the Green movement) during this conflict, is down. We're watching to see if it has been hacked out of existence.

1955 GMT: That #CNNFail Thing (see 1445 GMT). CNN staffer Samira Simone tweets from Atlanta, "More trouble for Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks", linking to a Saturday story in the Los Angeles Times on the disputed Ph.D. of the President's proposed Minister of Higher Education.

Meanwhile, no one on CNN's website seems to have noticed that a debate over "Ahmadinejad's Cabinet picks" took place in the Iranian Parliament today. There is still no advance on their story about the President's speech at Friday prayers.

1915 GMT: Agence France Presse draws on the opinions of two high-profile "conservative" MPs to draw out the challenge to President Ahmadinejad's Cabinet nominees:
"Sixteen nominees have no experience required for the ministries they have been nominated for," said powerful MP Ahmad Tavakoli. "The cabinet lacks harmony in its view when it comes to handling crucial issues such as economic development. The views of candidates nominated to head the economy, oil and commerce ministries contradict that of the agriculture ministry nominee."

Another top conservative, Mohammad Reza Bahonar, said he will "definitely not vote for a few nominees: "Some nominees of four or five ministries have an educational background which is contradictory to their portfolios."

1830 GMT: The news that Saeed Mortazavi, the former Tehran Chief Prosecutor, has been named as Iran's Deputy Prosecutor General, serving under the former Minister of Intelligence, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeie, has caused consternation. Mohammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau assesses:

The move also provides some clues into [head of Iran judiciary Sadegh] Larijani’s thinking and his views about his tenure at the judiciary. Larijani does not appear to be interested in reforming the system or leaving a positive legacy. Ejeie himself is a hardliner, and both he and Mortazavi are strongly supported by Ayatollah Khamenei. Their appointments signal that the harsh tactics in dealing with the reformist leaders and the people supporting them will continue.

I'm still in "wait and see" mode while an EA correspondent writes, "I think [this] really highlights how things are not quite as they appear in Iran. We were all thinking that Sadegh Larijani is weeding the hard core Ahmadinejad henchment away from top posts, when suddently Mortazavi gets actually promoted. I am not an expert of the Iranian judiciary system, but would venture to say that it is effectively a promotion, although it needs to be seen how he will cope with his boss, Mohseni Ejeie."

1735 GMT: Protestors have gathered in front of the Amir Almomenin Mosque in Tehran. Mehdi Karroubi, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mohammad Khatami had planned to join families of detainees for an Iftar (breaking of the Ramadan fast) meal, but the gathering was prohibited by authorities. We've posted video in a separate entry.

1640 GMT: Radio Farda has published a transcript (in Farsi) of President Ahmadinejad's speech in Parliament today.

1635 GMT: The Kargozaran Party, which associated with Hashemi Rafsanjani, has issued a statement of support for Mehdi Karroubi.

1520 GMT: Some urgent re-interpretation might be in order. According to BBC Persian, Saeed Mortazavi was not "fired" as Tehran's chief prosecutor. Instead, he's been moved at the judiciary to Deputy Prosecutor General.

1445 GMT: Credit to Associated Press, who have written a summary of the debate in Parliament, highlighting criticism of Ahmadinejad over the Iranian economy and noting specific hostility to his nominee as Minister of Energy, Massed Mirkazemi. (Unfortunately, they missed the humour of the "Peach" episode --- see 1230 GMT.) Credit also to MSNBC for picking up the story.

CNN continues its recent record of hopelessness: its last Iran story is from Friday, "Ahmadinejad urges stiff punishment for election dissenters".

1230 GMT: The Parliamentary debate has ended for the day. Parleman News has posted a running summary.

The overall headline appears to be that criticism of the Ahmadinejad Government, with principlists MPs pointing to a weak administration and reformists objecting to the lack of a substantial Government programme, will not stop general Parliamentary affirmation. Votes on individual ministers, which start on Monday, will be much trickier for the President.

So Ahmadinejad has avoided an immediate setback, but this does not mean he escaped ridicule. The moment that may capture the political imagination came when some Parliamentarians started shouting, "Peach! Peach!" That is an allusion to Ahmadinejad's television appearance last week, when he compared his former Minister of Health to "a peach I would like to eat".

1145 GMT: Parallel to our live blog coverage of the Parliamentary discussion, we've posted a lively debate --- drawing on the expertise of our Mr  Smith and Mr Johnson as well as blogs from Muhammad Sahimi of Tehran Bureau and Fintan Dunne --- on the political position of President Ahmadinejad.

1135 GMT: Parleman News have now posted a summary, via Mehr News, of the first session of Parliament on the Ahmadinejad Cabinet. MPs of the majority principlist bloc have been fierce in their criticism of the President. I still expect Parliamentary approval of the Government, but the estimate of up to 7 ministers being rejected is still prominent.

1125 GMT: Meanwhile Mehdi Karoubi, in a meeting with members of the Etemade Melli party, emphasised that suspending their newspaper or filtering their website will not make them give up and that they will continue their efforts with strong determination. He added that on Quds Day (the last Friday of Ramadan, 18 September) the authorities will witness people’s power once again and will know which side people are supporting.

1100 GMT: There is a Twitter report that tonight's Iftar (breaking of Ramadan fast), in which with Karroubi, Mousavi, Khatami, and families of detainees dined with the Reform Front Coordination Council, has been cancelled by authorities from the Ministry of Intelligence.

(We have now confirmed this via Saham News and the website of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli party.)

1000 GMT: Parleman News is updating on the Parlimentary speeches, which initially will be over the acceptance of the Cabinet as a whole rather on individual Ministers. Our reading is that while some high-profile critics of President Ahmadinejad, such as Vice Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar, are maintaining their denunciation of a "weak" Administration, they will encourage the Majlis to offer its support by voting for the Government.

0835 GMT: An Inauspicious Start? While Press TV summarises Ahmadinejad's speech this morning to Parliament, Parleman News thinks the President may have mis-stepped even before he took the podium. Ahmadinejad showed up with bodyguards, an unprecedented measure that brought protests from reformist MPs.

0830 GMT: We've just read an opinion piece on Iran that was so jaw-droppingly, well, bad that we had to give the author, Jim Hoagland of The Washington Post, his own special space.

0710 GMT: The Secret Burials in Behesht-e-Zahra Cemetery. Hamid-Reza Katouzian, a member of the special Parliamentary committee investigating claims of post-election misconduct, has said that there are unidentified people buried in the cemetery but it is unclear whether there are the 40 protestors whom the opposition claim were interred on orders from security forces.

0700 GMT: Fintan Dunne has joined our debate from yesterday over the claim, launched in the Tehran Bureau, that President Ahmadinejad is "isolated, weak, and delusional".
Muhammad Sahimi was too dismissive in describing of Ahmadinejad...as "isolated and delusional", and erred in reducing the regime to the person of the President. But he was correct to describe Ahmadinejad as "weak"....

The regime is now tellingly reliant on a narrow base of IRGC [Revolutionary Guard] appointees to fill government posts. Ahmadinejad/IRGC's core 'hard' support is as low as 10% with a 'softer' support extending to up to 18% of the population. The disputed president's public pronouncements are reductionist and defensive --aimed at his own supporters and the ill-informed. By contrast, most other voices in Iranian politics are addressing the remaining 80%+ of the population.

Despite their hard-line rhetoric, Ahmadinejad/IRGC are unable to crush the reformers. It is going to be far harder to violently suppress any mass public protests in the weeks ahead. And there is a dire political problem looming for this one-legged regime: it's the economy, stupid!...As the weeks pass, the economy will join the stolen election as the twin key political issues for the populace.

0650 GMT: On the opposition side, there has been a lot of chatter about a report that Mohammad Khatami, Mir Hossein Mousavi, and Mehdi Karroubi, joining families of political detainees, will attend this evening's Iftar ceremony, when the daily Ramadan fast is broken, with the Reform Front Coordination Council.

0635 GMT: Attention this morning turns to the Majlis, the Iranian Parliament, where President Ahmadinejad's 21 Ministerial nominations come up for votes of confidence. The debates and votes are more than referenda on individual Ministers; they are also a key sign of how much support the President retains, especially amongst the majority principlist bloc.

While there have been reports this week that up to 7 of the nominations are in trouble, these are based more on the comments of a couple of highly-placed MPs rather than a survey of Parliamentary opinion. The safest assessment that can be made is that Ahmadinejad's 3 women nominees are unlikely to be approved; beyond that, several other Ministers will rise or fall depending on behind-the-scene manoeuvres and their own presentations to the Parliament.
Wednesday
Aug052009

The Latest from Iran (5 August): The Inauguration

NEW Video: The Inauguration Protests (5 August)
Translation: Ayatollah Montazeri’s Response to Tehran Trials
Iran’s American Detainee: The Case of Kian Tajbakhsh
The Latest from Iran (4 August): A Day Between Protests


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AHMADI

2300 GMT: Ayatollahs Sanei and Bayat Zanjani have echoed Ayatollah Montazeri's statements denouncing the trials held last Saturday.

2200 GMT: A third journalist working for the Etemade Melli newspaper has been arrested. Mehdi Yazdani Khorram, the editor of the literature and art section, was arrested by plainsclothes officers at 2030 GMT.

2130 GMT: An important clarrification. Although Rafsanjani is scheduled to deliver a sermon at next week's Friday prayers, it is far from clear that he will take up this opportunity. It should be remembered that Rafsanjani turned down several opportunities to speak at Friday prayers before his last appearance on June 17.

1725 GMT: The resumption of the Tehran trials, scheduled for tomorrow, has been delayed until Saturday. The reason is unclear.

1715 GMT: Even the choice of Ayatollah Emami Kashani, a "conservative" cleric, to lead this Friday's prayers is far from a firm guarantee of support for the President and the regime. In  a sermon at Jamkaran Mosque, the ayatollah admitted, "The brightness of velayat-e-faqih (supreme leadership) has diminished....[Since the supreme leadership can not solve the problems of the country] may you [Mahdi, the 12'th Imam] reemerge and solve the country's problems."

1700 GMT: Friday's prayers will be led by Ayatollah Mohammad Emami-Kashani. That, however, is just a preliminary to the big news:  next week's will be led by Hashemi Rafsanjani.

1450 GMT: A summary of today before we return to our vacation. Riz Khan of Al Jazeera posted a question which, for Riz Khan, is remarkably ill-phrased: "As Mahmoud Ahmadinejad takes his oath, Will Iran again spiral into another cycle of violent demonstrations?"

The issue, as demonstrated again today, is not another ominous spiral into violence. Gatherings today, which persisted despite the state's attempt to close down visible opposition to the inauguration, continue to express clear concerns and demands (and, notably, without violence). Ahmadinejad's speech, which has already faded into a lack of significance, does nothing to check those concerns.

So the inauguration in fact becomes a sideshow, one boycotted by some politicians and attended by others with ill humour. With the Tehran trial resuming tomorrow, and more importantly with opposition politicians and clerics renewing their challenge, we'll get back to serious business.

1448 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has posted a statement on his website declaring:
These hectic trials just reflect the deep problem which exists in our country. It is definitely not a source of pride to publicly expose such personalities in a mass trial. We made a [Islamic revolution in 1979] revolution so that trials were against criminals. We wanted trials with lawyers, trials with rights for the defendants, trials where the judge acts independently and trials which make the people feel justice prevailing.

Mousavi again denied any links between the opposition and foreign countries, asserting that the problem was an attempt to limit political views: "We have to learn to face other standpoints, listen to what they say, elaborate our own viewpoints and pay attention to their elaborations as well."

1445 GMT: The Islamic society of  engineers, of which Ahmadinejad is a former member, has sent a letter to Ayatollah Rafsanjani. The head of the society, Seyyed Hasan Sobhani-nia, commented that "This letter asks about recent events and Ayatollah Rafsanjani's position regarding them. This letter also states the concerns and worries that this society has regarding the future of individuals attached to the revolution who have played a crucial role in its formation. The society has requested Mr. Rafsanjani to clarify his position regarding these recent events."  The society had previously sent a letter to Ahmadinejad, which Enduring America also posted, asking for his own clarrification.

1440 GMT: A Twitter activist has created a Google map showing the locations of protests across the capital today.

1430 GMT: Gooya. com are reporting that "tens of thousands" of security forces were out on Tehran streets today, especially near Parliament building. Shops in the area were closed.

1415 GMT: The lawyer for detained politicians Behzad Nabavi, Mostafa Tajzadeh, and Mohsen Mirdamadi says he will not attend tomorrow's trial because it is illegal.

1355 GMT: Another Arrested Journalist. In addition to last night's seizure of Mir Hamid Hassanzadeh, the head of Ghalam News, Reza Nourbakhsh, the chief editor of the newspaper Farhikhtegan, was arrested. His office was searched, and some material was taken. 

1330 GMT: Reports that women's rights activist Haleh Sahabiwas arrested in Baharestan Square today.

0800 GMT: BBC World is leading with the story of Ahmadinejad's inauguration. The footage is telling: there is a distinct lack of enthusiasm amongst members of Parliament.

The BBC also has some images of protest outside the Parliament building.

The analysis is not as useful. Jon Leyne, expelled from Iran earlier in the crisis, is saying, somewhat bizarrely, that "most" of the President's speech was directed "at the outside world".

0645 GMT: It appears that the pattern of protest will be repeated today. Instead of a mass gathering, which will be disrupted if not prevented by security forces, there will be a number of "flash" gatherings across Tehran. We'll be back later to give a full assessment.

0627 GMT: More on the "boycott" in Parliament (see 0612). Parleman News revises its report: 57 of the 70 members of the Imam Khomeini Line walked out as Ahmadinejad started his speech.

0616 GMT: Mehdi Karroubi, in an interview with Spanish newspaper El Pais says that he and Mousavi will never work with Ahmadinejad's Cabinet and that protests will continue. Karroubi said:
We do not want to destroy the government; however, we criticise the actions of the government and we have no intention to help this government....The reality is that the majority of the people do not accept the methodologies and language of Mr. Ahmadinejad. We consider this government to be illegitimate.

0615 GMT: Kazem Jalali, the head of the special Parliamentary committee investigating the conditions of detainees, has resigned, and there are reports that other committee members have quit. No official reasons for the resignations have been given, but there is speculation that the lack of cooperation from judiciary and security officals may be a key factor.

0612 GMT: Parleman News reports only 242 of the 290 members of Parliament attended the inauguration. This suggests that all 46 "reformist" MPs stayed away.

0608 GMT: There is heavy Twitter chatter of protesters demonstrating at the main Tehran Bazaar, effectively trying to shut it down. Cellphone service has reportedly been cut off in central Tehran.

0600 GMT: Even as Ahmadinejad was speaking, the text scroll on the screen announced the next battle within the Establishment. The President has two weeks to assemble the names of proposed Cabinet Ministers and put them before Parliament. Given the furour over his recent choice of First Vice President Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai and his effective takeover of the Ministry of Intelligence, that will not be an easy process.

0555 GMT: Live coverage by Press TV English is available. They are assessing Ahmadinejad's speech, which made claims to "social justice".

0545 GMT: Opposition activists are pointing to images inside the Parliament of empty seats, which would indicate that (as on Monday, when the Supreme Leader confirmed Ahmadinejad) many have stayed away from the ceremony, and of growing demonstrations elsewhere in Tehran.

Morning Update (0535 GMT): Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been inaugurated as President of the Islamic Republic of Iran for a second term, despite a disputed election result almost eight weeks ago.

The President was not deterred by such questions in his acceptance speech, claiming the mandate of 25 million votes (even the suspect official tally gave him "only" 23 million).

Reuters is reporting a demonstration of "hundreds" in Baharestan Square in front of the Iranian Parliament building.