Afghanistan Election: The Videos
EA Soundcheck: Assessing Afghanistan, Iran, and IraqEA Soundcheck: 7 Points on Afghanistan’s Presidential ElectionReceive our latest updates by email or RSS SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FEED
Buy Us A Cup of Coffee? Help Enduring America Expand Its Coverage and AnalysisIn addition to our ongoing coverage of the post-election crisis in Iran, we'll be keeping an eye on developments in the Afghanistan election. For a guide to the campaign and the issues, see our analysis and listen to our audio at EA Soundcheck, both on the eve of the election and on the night after the vote. Our colleagues at Alive in Afghanistan are providing a full map-based overview of the latest news and incidents. Follow the links for updates for useful poster on Twitter or track the incoming messages at #afghan09. And here is a useful map to keep "at your side" on the computer.
1115 GMT: Pajhwok News Agency is offering
a stream of reports pointing to manipulation and fraud in the counting of the vote. In one case in Khost Province, it claims that while residents say less than 500 people, the election commission returned a total of more than 22,000 for Hamid Karzai.
0840 GMT: No, I've Won.
Abdullah Abdullah's camp claim that he, not Hamid Karzai, is a first-round winner, taking 63 percent of the vote to Karzai's 31.
If I were a cynic (which, of course, I am not), I would say that all remains to make this situation complete is for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to show up and say
he won.
0715 GMT:
Jim Sciutto of ABC News reports that the campaign of Abdullah Abdullah, Hamid Karzai's main challenger, has denied the claims of a first-round victory by the Karzai camp.
The election commission has responded, "We have no results yet...This is not official...We don't accept [the Karzai claims]."
0630 GMT: Last night
I discussed the election and and its significance with Fintan Dunne. Already I was looking towards the prospect of a first-round Karzai victory, more because of manoeuvres behind the scenes than because of the up-front vote.
Perhaps more importantly, other questions are opened up. Look, for example, to how Karzai tries to exert his authority, not only with other Afghan groups but against his American "allies". And, for all the cautions about "democracy" in this election, has the process opened up some space --- symbolic or "real" --- for social and political action against corruption and for rights and development?
21 August, 0600 GMT: A Full Glass for Karzai? All day yesterday we used the phrase "half-empty, half-full" for the election, with mixed returns on turnout, "minor" violence which killed at least 27 people, and reports of irregularities and fraud.
The trend continues today, with one important exception. Election authorities say that the national turnout was between 40 and 50 percent, well down on the 70 percent for the 2004 Presidential election but above the 30 percent threshold needed for a valid result. Caroline Wyatt, reporting from Helmand for the BBC, has just engaged in a bit of cheerleading for the "success" and "incredible result", given the issues of security. Other observers, such as Al Jazeera English, are being more measured in their views.
The important exception is President Karzai, whose team are already prepared to celebrate. Karzai's campaign manager
told Reuters this morning, "Initial results show that the president has got a majority. We will not got to a second round."
1830 GMT: In one district of Logar Province in eastern Afghanistan
five polling centres were burned and 28 rockets were fired at others.
1825 GMT: In his televised address this evening,
President Karzai hailed the day as a triumph: "I greet the brave and courageous people of Afghanistan on the successful conduct of elections, which is a propitious sign for establishing a democratically elected government and promoting democracy in the country." This is about as unexpected as the Pope declaring that God is a jolly nice chap.
More intriguing is the statement of Karzai's primary challenge, Abdullah Abdullah, that he found initial results "satisfactory and encouraging".
1700 GMT: Three election centers reported
attacked and burned, with all ballot boxes destroyed, in Shindand district of Herat in western Afghanistan.
1535 GMT: Well, the media line is now in.
As the Voice of America puts it, "Afghan Election Spared Major Attacks, But Questions Linger Over Turnout". That spares the immediate blushes of the US military, a perspective that was all too painfully clear in
Spencer Ackerman's initial piece for The Washington Independent, with its framing of "a testament to Brig. Gen. Damien Cantwell’s security strategy". At the same time, it reflects the doubts over the "Democracy Triumphs" narrative, as voter participation is unlikely to meet the benchmark of 70 percent in the 2004 election. (The BBC is reporting from Kandahar, using unnamed sources, that turnout will struggle to reach 50 percent.) Ackerman's follow-up piece, an interview of Akbar Ayazi of US Government-funded Radio Afghanistan, again tells a tale with Ayazi's commment, “Personally, I feel the psychological war conducted by the Taliban somehow worked...[as evidenced] “by low turnout."
That, however, only sketches the limitations of the media's narrative. The inevitable framings of "security" and "democracy" will miss the power politics that is already going on within Afghanistan. Some media outlets have dared to mention election irregularities but almost none in the mainstream have gotten to the substance, which is the attempt by President Hamid Karzai's camp to ensure he crosses the 50 percent threshold for a first-round win and the opposition attempt by Abdullah Abdullah to take the battle to a run-off. Favours are being swapped, I suspect money is changing hands, and there is evidence that ballots are being stuffed or fabricated or destroyed.
The point is not to throw around the blanket charge of "corruption" but to put up the realities. From the start, this was not as much a question of defeat of the Taliban and (in substance, if not symbolism) the exercise of the vote but of whether Karzai could extend his stay in office and influence for another four years. If so, then he could move from being the Number One Dealmaker in Afghanistan to a renewed attempt to take the lead, including seizing initiative from the Americans, in the political manoeuvres vis-a-vis other factions as well as the Taliban.
1415 GMT: Our friends at
Global Post are also providing
running coverage today. Their headline tips off their mood: "Clashes, and threats, spook Afghan voters".
1400 GMT: President Karzai is speaking on national television. He has said there were 73 attacks today.
1355 GMT: Here's the 21st-century technology to claim election fraud. Candidate Ashraf Ghani is sending out
a stream of messages on Twitter to claim, "Warlords in north, northeast, south and southeast force people at gun point to vote for either Abdullah or Karzai."
1330 GMT:
Foreign Policy puts out an interim summary, drawing from various sources, on today's developments. Apart from believing that the tale of "Britney Jamilia Spears" voting in Kandahar is new (it's not --- the fake registration was the source of Internet giggling last week), it's not bad. The one bit we haven't covered here: "A voting official in Kandahar said that turnout appears to be forty percent lower than in 2004, the spiritual homeland of the Taliban, and AP correspondents reported similarly shorter lines in the capital, Kabul."
1320 GMT: Earlier we reported that a Commander Razziq (1000 GMT) had taken the novel step of removing the ballot boxes to his house. Now it is claimed that all vote-counting has been stopped by force in Spin Boldak [southern Afghanistan] by the commander.
1315 GMT:
From Pajhwok News Agency: "Taliban attack 5 polling centers in Baghlan capital [northern Afghanistan], steal 25 ballot boxes; fleeing poll workers preserve 10"
1310 GMT: Too early to draw wide conclusions but have to say that concerns are rising.
From Atia Abawi of CNN: "Government official told me that provinces reporting high numbers of ballot stuffing in provinces with low turnout."
1300 GMT: The half-full, half-empty turnout today is captured
by these reports: "In Ghazni province [east Afghanistan], 10 of 18 districts had no voting at all; but in other 8, all was fine....Wardak [east-central Afghanistan]: Of 9 districts, 2 with normal voting, 2 with no voting [because] Taliban blockd road, 5 with some problems but voting continued."
No half-full in Kandahar, though, where
turnout is reported very low.
1203 GMT: Reliable EA source, from witness accounts, says the two people killed in Kabul firefight this morning were not "suicide bombers" but Afghan Army troops.
1200 GMT: Claims that
latest rocket attack in Kandahar has killed one and injured three people.
1145 GMT: Election commission says
polling stations may extend their hours if they opened late or "for other reasons".
1130 GMT: Conflicting reports over the end of the voting day, with some saying that stations have closed and others saying there has been an extension of one hour.
Best estimate is "Polls closing, but voters still in line in many places".
1020 GMT: In Faryab Province in northern Afghanistan,
50,000 voters were reportedly shut out in districts under Taliban control.
Even more troubling news has come out of Baghlan, where the police commander was killed this morning.
Reports indicate that intense fighting has continued in the area, with more than 20 insurgents killed.
1010 GMT: If the touchstone for "success" is Kabul, then the verdict is still out.
A CNN correspondent claims that, halfway through the voting day, turnout in the capital had reached 30%; turnout in the rural areas of Kabul Province are reportedly
higher than expected. The two gunmen who died in a firefight are now
being described as "suicide attackers"; media cameras at the scene were confiscated, and some journalists were arrested.
1000 GMT: Developments continue to follow the general pattern. There has been
good (and peaceful) turnout in some areas such as Herat, Mazar, Ghazni, and Samangan. Other areas such as Helmand Province and Kandahar have been marred by restrictions on voting, low turnout, and/or violence.
Reports of roadside bombs and suicide attacks are continuing.
Difficulties and irregularities in the voting process have been claimed. In one case, a commander reportedly
took all the voting boxes from nearby stations into his house. The not-so-indelible "indelible" ink story is still circulating,
with candidate Ramazan Bashardost claiming, "This is not an election. This is a comedy." There are reports of children voting.
o830 GMT: Reports coming in of incidents throughout Afghanistan: at least
seven improvised explosive devices in Kabul, rockets on a Kunduz polling place, and rockets in Lashkar Gah in Helmand.
0755 GMT: Nothing to See Here, Go Away. General Rashid Dostum, the former militia commander who holds sway in Uzbek areas in northern Afghanistan,
has rejected allegations that his return from exile in Turkey is linked to delivery of votes to President Hamid Karzai:
I have no personal agreement with Karzai....The people ... they became somewhat sick while I was away ... I heard them say, 'If General Dostum doesn't come here, we won't vote'....I thought, God forbid people don't vote, so I came here to make sure that people vote.
0745 GMT: More than Fireworks (0710 GMT). Reports of a firefight in Kabul between gunmen and the Afghan army have been confirmed by Governor of Kabul. Two gunmen were killed, one wounded.
0725 GMT:
More from Helmand: "8 Rockets hit Lashkar Gah. 2 dead, one wounded at least. Widespread fraud in the city."
0710 GMT: Truth or Spin?
From Atia Abawi of CNN: "Governor of Kabul says security situation is fine, just incidents of fireworks to scare people and one dead body found, killed by sniper."
0700 GMT: Al Jazeera reports that, while turnout is good in areas like Bamiyan, concern is growing over low turnout so far in Kabul. It notes incidents and low turnout in Kandahar in the south, played down by the Governor, and repeats the BBC's observation that stations are closed in Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand Province.
0630 GMT: Going by international television at this hour, well into the morning's voting in the Presidential election, there is no real news. With obvious difficulties in covering a large country, especially amidst security considerations, a lot of the coverage consists of reporters standing at polling stations and saying, "There are voters here." Sometimes this becomes, "There are a lot of voters here," with little insight into whether "a lot" consists of a queue at that moment or a significant proportion of the local population. (Media spotcheck: CNN International is really awful at the moment, filling empty space with mainly "Ra-ra-ra Democracy" words, before giving 30 minutes to World Sport. Al Jazeera, recognising that up-to-the-minute news may be patchy, is providing a lot of background, as is BBC Radio. BBC TV, at least here in Britain, is nowhere.)
However, "no real news" could be good news, if that means an absence of violence and disruption. So, appreciating that any glance can only be partial and limited at this time (and for some time to come), what are the signals?
The reports from observers and better-informed sources are decidedly mixed on voter turnout. The report of
Voice of America, "At polling station in Kabul mosque, short line of men, few women showng up" has just been followed by
Pajhwok Afghan News, "Good voter turnout in Herat". Putting the bits together (and reminding reader that
Alive in Afghanistan has an outstanding map-based site to give perspective), it seems that some areas have solid turnout and no need for security whereas other areas will struggle. BBC radio reported 30 minutes ago that more than half the polling stations in Helmand Province, the highlight trouble spot in Afghanistan, have not opened.
There are scattered reports of violence, including a District chief and one other person killed in Kandahar, two killed in or near Khost, and small explosions in Kabul.
Potentially more significant politically are the first indications that election fraud will be alleged. Soon after president candidate Ramazan Basharadost, who has run an energetic campaign based on anti-corruption pledges, voted, he and his supporters claimed that the "indelible" ink used to mark fingers and prevent repeat voting was washing off. The immediate reaction, either from truth or an attempt to limit the allegation, is that "substandard" ink had been used.
Saturday, August 22, 2009 at 17:01 
We should never say, "Told you so", but....