Iran Special Analysis: After Montazeri --- From Protest to Victory?

For an observer 1000s of miles away, the movement of events was dream-like. Initially, as Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's body was moved from his house to the Imam Hassan Mosque, the report were "30,000 to 40,000" on the streets. An hour later, as the procession moved from the mosque to the Massoumeh Shrine, where Montazeri would be buried, the news came of "more than 100,000".

Then it was hundreds of thousands. Not just claims of hundreds of thousands but the first pictures, with an aerial shot of of Qom filled with mourners and demonstrators. Then the videos, first in a trickle, soon a torrent, from Montazeri's house, from the mosque, from the shrine, throughout the city, in Najafabad (Montazeri's birthplace), and in other cities.

Just put two images side-by-side. Three days before Montazeri's burial, the regime struggled (and possibly manipulated) to fill Tehran's Enghelab Square with supporters. Yesterday, there was no need for PhotoShop: this was the genuine expression of emotions from anguish to anger to hope, in numbers not seen since the first days after the Presidential election.

For me, there was one key sign that this was beyond even the moments of the mid-July Rafsanjani Friday Prayer, the "40th Day memorial" of 30 July, the Qods Days demonstration of September, the 16 Azar protests two weeks ago. At no point, even as "Western" media were going Page 1 with their discovery that Iranian post-election resistance had not died, could I step back to evaluate the political significance. This was too big for snap judgements of the type that I could venture a few hours into the protests of previous occasions.

For this was a combination not only of a movement of the past six months but of political and religious sentiments of decades. Montazeri --- the pariah of 1989, dismissed as the next Supreme Leader and shunned by Ayatollah Khomeini, placed under house arrest, condemned as an irrelevancy by the regime --- was now Iran's hope.

Perhaps the most eye-catching testimony to that came not from an admirer of Montazeri or a member of the Green Wave but from a critic and defender of the current regime. Tehran Unversity academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi --insisted Montazeri "said the same thing" for 25 years, Montazeri was an insignificance, Montazeri was linked to "terrorism". What was meant to be a dismissal turned into a tribute: Marandi's words just did not match up to the videos that were reaching our desk at the same moment.

How much of yesterday's sentiment was sympathy, affection, and admiration of an important but singular figure, and how much was a well-spring of wider beliefs about the current state of an Islamic Republic, two decades after Montazeri's ostracism? And does this mean that the movement for fundamental change in the Iranian system, a movement put aside by many observers only weeks ago (note the lack of attention outside Iran to the significance of demonstrations of 4 November), is now unstoppable?

I'm not sure this morning. I'm not sure primarily because, even acknowledging that the mass sentiment yesterday was not only for Montazeri but for Montazeri as a symbol of what could and should be in Iran, a ground-swell still needs focus, direction, objectives.

The practical demands of politics are messy and long-term, compared to the sudden, clear expression we saw yesterday. So, even in the run-up to the ceremonies of Ashura on Sunday --- now how large the demonstrations? --- in the background will be all the legal, political, and religious calculations and manoeuvres that have both preoccupied and frustrated since June. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi made their appearances yesterday, but the reconcilation now has to be not only with a crowd of mourning but of a movement that seeks a significant victory for its demands of recognition and justice.

So, no easy answers. However, I will venture one far-from-tangential conclusion. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, six months after his claims of victory over the "dust" of opposition, is now a President of the past. I am not sure he was even prominent enough yesterday to get a specific chant from the demonstrators, but he was swept away in the cry, "Montazeri is not dead; the coup Government is dead."

It is surreal but essential ---the relevance of the irrelevant, so to speak --- to watch the interview of Ahmadinejad broadcast by America's ABC News last night. Because the encounter took place last week, both the President and the interviewer, trading punches over the nuclear issues and the detained US hikers, are unconcerned with Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and (in the interviewer's case) the political state of the opposition. So the interview now becomes testimony to a discussion taking place outside the realities of the conflict, both over the last six months and as they have evolved over the last 48 hours.

Ironically, however, Ahmadinejad's marginal position is important. Combined with the "marginal" on the other side --- the failure of Mousavi and Karroubi to get any concessions from the regime on their core demands, being met instead by more threats, the failure of others to establish a National Unity Plan --- it has led to the sharpening of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and a "radicalised" opposition. That, in turn, has led to a muddling, rather than clarifying, of the issues at hand: "radicalised" is at that point laid on certain symbolic acts such as "Death to the Dictator" chants and the omission of the Islamic Republic's coat of arms on the Iranian flag.

It is from that muddle that the next steps and possibilities will emerge. Is Ayatollah Khameini really willing to take this to a battle to the death with the Green movement or will he offer any way back from his threat to arrest them all? Does any space remain for those "within the Establishment" --- a Rafsanjani, a Larijani, other high-profile members of Parliament and Ministers --- to craft a settlement? Does the mantle of Montazeri lead Mousavi, Karroubi, or other opposition figures back to prominence not just through periodic statements but through a sustained public presence, accompanied by clear demands for changes in the Islamic Republic? Is there any possibility of a "movement from below" that frames and presses those demands to a satisfactory conclusion?

After emotions has to come political calculation. But right now, I don't have an answer to those sums and equations. I'm not sure anyone else --- Khameini, Mousavi, Karroubi, or anyone in that crowd at Qom --- does either.

Iran: A Renewed Washington Love Affair With The Green Movement?

It is striking that, after six weeks in the high-profile US media of scepticism and even hostility towards the Iranian opposition, there appears to be another honeymoon of American sentiment for the Green Wave(s). While the protests of 13 Aban (4 November) were largely put aside by the US press, the smaller demonstrations of 16 Azar have been embraced as the valiant defiance of Government oppression.

The Christian Science Monitor saw the resurrection of "the country's Green Movement , [which] has found new ways of organizing and keeping its message alive", and Los Angeles Times published a lengthy editorial, "Help Iran's Student Protestors":

The students, for their part, seem to be girding for a long fight, and the West should follow their lead. Western governments should offer the reform movement moral support, as President Obama did in his Nobel Peace Prize speech, promising to be a voice for the aspirations of reformers such as the "hundreds of thousands who have marched silently through the streets of Iran." But the West also must be careful not to undermine the reformists with too close an embrace. This is a national movement, and the Iranians who are questioning the legitimacy of their own government are diligent students of their revolutionary forefathers.

The Latest from Iran (11 December): Ripples and then Ruptures?

Meanwhile, CNN has converted a general statement from Assistant Secretary of State John Limbert, ""We believe as we have always believed that the Iranian people deserve decent treatment from their government," into a portrayal of Washington's renewed backing of the opposition with the headline, "Official: U.S. Will Not Ignore Iran Protests".

President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech offered a high-profile stage for a display of Washington's sentiments. Masoud at The Newest Deal came away with hope:

One of the two times Obama explicitly singled out Iran was on the nuclear issue, if only to stress the importance of countries to not only follow international law – in this instance, the Non-Proliferation Treaty – but to also ensure that such international agreements are followed and respected by all nations. Obama continued:

"The same principle applies to those who violate international laws by brutalizing their own people. When there is genocide in Darfur, systematic rape in Congo, repression in Burma -- there must be consequences. Yes, there will be engagement; yes, there will be diplomacy -- but there must be consequences when those things fail. And the closer we stand together, the less likely we will be faced with the choice between armed intervention and complicity in oppression."

What is interesting to note is that while Obama did not mention Iran in his litany of countries that “brutalize their own people,” he used the word "engagement" in his very next sentence. The term “engagement,” of course, has been used almost exclusively vis-à-vis Iranian diplomacy during the first eleven months of the Obama administration. It appears that this was subtle (if not coy) way of putting the Iranian regime on notice.

On closer examination, however, it appears that the Obama Administration is still driven by a nuclear-first attitude on Iran. The substantial statements on Thursday and today have all been about sanctions on Tehran: US, British, and French ambassadors at the United Nations warned of Iran's violations of arms embargoes. The French ambassador asserted:

If Iran continues to do everything it can to violate five Security Council resolutions, if it continues to refuse the slightest confidence measures, to refuse dialogue, transparency after the major revelations that have just been made, we must draw all of the necessary conclusions and that means we must move on to a new resolution involving sanctions.

US Ambassador Susan Rice echoed, "Should Iran continue to fail to meet its obligations, the international community will have to consider further actions," and this morning Secretary of Defense Robert Gates piled on the rhetorical pressure, "I think you're going to see some significant additional sanctions imposed by the international community, assuming that the Iranians don't change course and agree to do the things they signed up to do at the beginning of October."

So, however warm the renewed affection for the Iranian opposition, it stills appears that "plucky student protestors" translates into no more than pawns in the Obama Administration's nuclear chess match with Tehran.

Iran 16 Azar Analysis: "Something is Happening"

Earlier today we posted an analysis by our Mr Smith of the significance of 16 Azar and the possibilities for the future. His points are complemented by those made by Masoud at The Newest Deal, who has kindly sent us a copy of the blog:

Though impossible to tell with the blanket censorship draped over Iran at present, it appears that the size of yesterday's protests were smaller than what was seen on 13 Aban, and on Qods Day before it. No matter. The demonstrations of 16 Azar signaled a shift -- if not response -- on the part of the Green movement to the tyranny and brutality that the regime has come to represent. The message was clear: there is no turning back. In fact, the Islamic Republic's future has never been more uncertain.

Iran Special: Putting 16 Azar In Context
The Latest from Iran (8 December): The Half-Full Victory?

As things stand now, this movement is no longer about a stolen election. Truthfully, it hasn't been for quite some time, but that conclusion only became crystalline today. Only four months ago, this was hardly the case. At that time, the Greens represented a peaceful, non-violent movement asking "Where is my vote?" and led by a Prime Minister [Mir Hossein Mousavi] who stressed -- no, urged -- the need to stay true to the Islamic Republic's framework and constitutional structure, not to mention the wisdom and guidance of the late Ayatollah Khomeini.

No longer. Yesterday's demonstrations were organized by a fractal grassroots whose structure is horizontal rather than hierarchical. That is to say, it has no leader. (Incidentally, neither Mousavi, Karoubi, or Khatami apparently took part in yesterday's marches.) These were protests that saw Iranian flags whose white centers were bare, missing the iconic 'Allah' written in form of a red, martyr's tulip. Gone was the silent marching of peaceful demonstrators holding up 'V's' in the air. Instead, pockets of protesters confronted the Basij physically, and at times, overwhelmingly. And protests were not just limited to Tehran, either. Demonstrations have been verified in Mashhad, Shiraz, Rasht, Kermanshah, Hamedan, Arak, Kerman and Najafabad.

Most telling of all, chants of "Death to Khamenei" have now become a demonstration fixture, no longer the sacred red-line that protesters never dared to cross. Indeed, cross they have as his name was cursed repeatedly and as often as Ahmadinejad's yesterday. Only a few months earlier, [Supreme Leader Ali] Khamenei could have caved in, given up Ahmadinejad as a sacrificial lamb, and saved himself, if only to survive in a weaker capacity. He no longer has the luxury of that option. Through his political ineptitude, the Islamic Republic has itself become illegitimate, and that inevitably means that at the very least, the doctrine of Velayat-e-Faqih must go. The regime has essentially placed itself in an unsustainable dynamic: it insistingly continues to alienate a larger and larger portion of the base from which it derives its legitimacy (the clerical class) while at the same time takes actions against the people that are far too unforgivable to allow for any future possibility of reconciliation, as [Hashemi] Rafsanjani was pushing for in September.

Which makes the timing of Rafsanjani's sudden reappearance the day before the protests all the more significant. In a meeting with students in the city of Mashhad, Rafsanjani addressed criticisms of his recent silence by issuing his strongest and most pointed rebuke of the regime yet. Stating that the demands of his July sermon had gone unheeded, Rafsanjani issued a not-so-thinly veiled and ominous warning: "If the people of Iran want us we to govern them, then we may stay. If not, then we should step aside."

Rafsanjani went on to state that the Basij and Revolutionary Guard should have never stood against the people and confirmed the Green movement's right to protest. Though the finger was not directly pointed and Khamenei's name was never spoken, the message was clear: this crisis is the Supreme Leader's doing, and it is only he who can resolve it. Rafsanjani, it should not be forgotten, is Iran's de facto number-two as well as the head of the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body that is assigned with the task of selecting the next Supreme Leader, and if need be, disposing of the current one. His statement -- and indeed, warning to Khamenei -- was essentially a declaration that if the Islamic Republic's constitutional law and structure is going to be discarded, then he will not stand in the way of its inevitable demise.

Which with yesterday's protests should give the Islamic Republic even more cause for concern. Although state television still broadcasts a confident (read: propagandist) self-image, the regime is undoubtedly scared. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the Revolutionary Guards General who was recently appointed the new head of the Basij, apparently even shot Tehran's Traffic Control Chief in the foot when he was told in a meeting last week that it would be "impossible" to neutralize widespread attempts to bring Tehran's traffic to a halt. Incidents such this -- likely one of many occurring behind closed doors -- speaks of the panic and desperation that is surely beginning to settle into the minds of those in power. It has been seen before, some thirty years ago.

16 Azar Special: A Letter from Inside Iran

An EA reader writes, "Some time ago, some dear friends of mine returned to their home in Iran after a prolonged holiday. I had sent them a long farewell message, wishing them well and asking them to try and contact me whenever there might be a chance. I wasn't sure when or if I might hear. Then on Saturday, 5 December, just as news was spreading about Iran 'cutting off' all Internet access, an e-mail arrived:

At the airport when we landed, they questioned me about what I'd been doing abroad, where I'd been, and asked if I was on facebook, and for my passwords. They even did a search for my name on Facebook but didn’t find me. I am so glad I closed my account. I know it has been said many times but still people should be warned to close their FB accounts, etc. (Still. I was really worried because I still had a Twitter account open – but I had set that up with all false info ---luckily.) It was intimidating for a bit but I acted as confidently as I could. It was not a pleasant experience. So please if you know anyone coming back here, advise them to close all their FB & Twitter accounts.

People are going about their everyday lives but it’s not really very normal, there is graffiti everywhere. We saw many photos on the web but there is so much more than I expected! You see green paint & writing and V’s everywhere, sometimes in the strangest places!

All anyone talks about is politics, it’s more open in that respect than before I left! Especially when it comes to the Supreme Leader & the Regime. There are of course the coup supporters who pretend nothing is happening - but they are in the minority It is amazing how they close their eyes and make excuses for the coupsters. One person told me the protesters were Western-trained terrorists! They sincerely believed it too. They have this total blind faith even though most of them are highly intelligent. They are really delusional. I know this kind of sounds contradictory, but at the same time they are very worried, the supporters regurgitate the same IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) propaganda about western soft war and convince themselves the government is holy and would never hurt anyone!

We get a lot of news, considering I rarely get on the internet! I really miss it.. The first time I could see friends online, but was too scared to log in and say hello, I so badly wanted to. It was the strangest thing: I was excited that I could see you but decided it was safer not to "speak2 to you.

I have seen videos of protests in Universities around the country, I think that most things that are circulated on Twitter are also circulated around here, both eastern and western news. We saw (journalist Maziar} Bahari’s interviews (with Jon Stewart and CNN), for example, and the (Mir Hossein) Mousavi interview. We have read news articles from western news sites & the news from the reformist sites & opposition blogs is e-mailed and handed out on flyers. Many of my friends told me they are still on the Internet watching different blogs and social media sites but they don’t sign in anymore. Remember this is the Bluetooth capital of the world! There are videos, assorted fliers, we even saw a newsletter! And anything the government says, you know the opposite is true.

I heard the Allah Akbar’s the night before the last big rally on 13 Aban (4 November). It was so moving, I had seen it on You Tube, but to hear it live was something else I guess it confirmed for me how real it was...the sound seems to come from everywhere. The people I was with told me it was much louder before, I can't imagine what that must have been like. How much our country has changed in the time I've been away!

We planned to visit a friend in central Tehran early in the morning of 13 Aban, I just wanted to see it for myself --- you know what it's like there you see the videos, I just wanted to watch it. As we made our way towards the apartment, somehow we got in the middle of some people trying to group up and some security trying to disperse them. We had no choice but to start running, I got a whack from a baton but just kept running. I looked around and everyone was running like me. From somewhere in the direction of where we were running to came teargas. It all happened so quickly, we got separated and I lost almost all but one of my companions in the confusion.

Thankfully my friend knew where to go, and we quickly got to a place of safety even though we were coughing and choking from the teargas. When we reunited with our other friends we shared a cigarette for the teargas. We then watched the terrible scene unfold on the street below.

I’m sure you have heard, I can’t put into words what I saw, but they are ruthless, horrible animals. The worst part was, they seemed to be targeting girls! People eventually dispersed from the scene, but most came out again later! We could hear people protesting somewhere in the city right into the evening.

Talk now of course is all about student's day (16 Azar --- 7 December), I don’t know if there will be a huge turnout, but there will definitely be protests. Everyone knows about it, some are scared, but there are many others that are determined. There has been some talk of strikes as well, in the last couple of days, but that may be just a rumor. The whole country is getting really tense again in the lead up to 16 Azar, you can really sense the tension.

Allah Akbars are only night before the major protests now, although I heard there have been some in the university dorms, as well as many protests. In the street every once in a while someone will just yell out a slogan and everyone smiles or people flash V signs. It always brings smiles, it’s like the fog has lifted for a minute. I have seen this a couple of times now, these people are so brave, there are security officers everywhere.

People I have talked to are mainly fed up with the government altogether - there's always been grumbling against the regime, but even I am surprised by the amount of people that are now openly stressing the need for secular democracy. There has been a major shift in opinion after 13 Aban in the people around me. I really think the IRI is finished: and that there is enough support now for complete change. People are just waiting at the moment, but we will have a better idea in the next month. Winter has always been a big time for protests.

One thing I can say for sure is there is no going back now, I couldn’t begin to guess what the future might hold, but the green movement isn’t going away, if anything it is growing. There are definitely some Basij questioning what they are doing. There are stories of divorces and broken engagements over differences in which side they support. Family members have stopped talking to each other over this, even disowned each other. So, there are strained relationships everywhere between families, associates, friends, neighbours. Something has got to give eventually. It seems like some are finally noticing what is really going on instead of continuing to stick the heads in the sand.