Iran's 16 Azar Protests: An Interim Analysis and Questions for the Green Movement

From Enduring America's Mr Smith:

The demonstrations have gone on as planned today in Tehran. The threats to bring the Internet to a grinding halt in Tehran have been fruitless, as usual the Internet got the videos and evidence out.

Couple of points for discussion and analysis:

1) Is this only a Student Demonstration? The reports and news out so far from Tehran and other cities indicates protests, chants, and opposition activity almost entirely within university campuses. There appears to be little follow-up in the streets or little participation by ordinary people. We need more facts and evidence to prove this, but it appears as though 16 Azar did not turn into yet another day of widespread popular defiance of the regime, as seen during 13 Aban [4 November] or Quds Day [18 September].

The Latest from Iran (7 December): The Marches of 16 Azar
Latest Iran Video: The Marches of 16 Azar (7 December)
16 Azar Opinion: “Iran’s Voice Will Be Heard”
16 Azar Special: A Letter from Inside Iran
Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” and “Death to Dictator” Chants (6 December)
Iran Opinion: “Why The Green Movement Will Prevail”

2) Is Mir Hossein Mousavi still considered to be the Leader of the Green Wave?

Another point to notice is the radicalisation of chants. The chant considering Mousavi the figurehead of a much vaster struggle against the entire regime and the burning of posters of Imam Khomeini and Ayatollah Khamenei are telling signs of impatience within the student movement and willingness to go beyond Mousavi's stale and unattractive gradualism and his refusal to take on the pillars of the regime --- Khamenei especially --- in a frank and direct way.

This doesn't bode well for the reformists, as they could have to contend with a widening gap between themselves and rank-and-file greens in the months to come. Additionally, it could also lead to repression against Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi and other leaders, as they could be accused of leading a "counter-revolutionary" movement which aims to overthrow the sacred Islamic Republic, should the footage of Khamenei and Khomeini being burnt be paraded on national television.

The Latest from Iran (6 December): Tension Rises

2000 GMT: Widespread reports of loud "Allahu Akhbar" rooftop chants tonight. We've posted two videos.

1800 GMT: A day dominated by statements. We've posted an abridged English version of the Mousavi statement on 16 Azar and the student movement.

Iran Opinion: “Why The Green Movement Will Prevail”
NEW Latest Iran Videos: The Eve of 16 Azar “Allahu Akhbar” Chants (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: Mousavi Statement on 16 Azar and the Student Movement (6 December)
NEW Iran Document: The Rafsanjani Speech to Students (6 December)
Iran Document: Mehdi Karroubi on The Response to Extremism
Iran: Routes and Information for 16 Azar (7 December)
Iran’s Critical Moment: 24 Hours to Go
The Latest from Iran (5 November): Fun with the Regime

1505 GMT: We've just learned that Kalemeh has posted the 16th statement of Mir Hossein Mousavi, issued for 16 Azar. We'll look for an English summary.

1500 GMT: Mir Hossein Mousavi has also made a statement for the commemoration of Eid al-Ghadir, the confirmation of Imam Ali’s succession to the Prophet Mohammad. Visiting political figures and family members of detainees, declared, "Today more than anytime we need to return to [Imam Ali's] model and policy because that path wants Justice, Freedom and Equality for all....A society or a government will survive with blasphemy but will not survive with oppression.”

1410 GMT: Raf's Back? Chatter continues about Hashemi Rafsanjani's Sunday speech. Khabar Online focuses on the former President's defense of his son, Mehdi Hashemi: Rafsanjani said that Hashemi had gone to Britain to pursue a Ph.D., not to evade criminal charges which are unfounded.

We've got an English translation of parts of the speech. Another version has been posted by activist MikVerbrugge.

1300 GMT: Supreme Leader Gives British a Boost. Further to Ayatollah Khamenei's speech (see 1130 GMT), this comes in from the Supreme Leader's office via Twitter, "Ayatollah Khamenei emphasized that USA is at the top of Iranian nation's enemies pyramid and Britain is their most vicious one."

So for all my British friends who fret about loss of power, declining Empire, and being just another sort-of-European country, cheer up....you're still vicious!

1130 GMT: It's All Because of the Foreigners. The Supreme Leader has told an audience of "thousands" that the Islamic Republic has rebuffed the efforts of foreign nations (US, Britain, Israel, etc.) to create differences over policy with their threat of sanctions. No reference, as far as I can see, to the internal challenge to the "unity" of the Iranian nation.

1125 GMT: Green Brief 75, covering the last 24 hours in Iran, is now out.

1120 GMT: Rafs' Move for 16 Azar. This may shake up a quiet morning: former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has emerged to position himself between regime and protesters.

Rafsanjani told students in Mashhad, "The situation in the country is such that constructive criticism is not accepted," and pressed his call for unity and adherence to the law to "create a climate of freedom which will convince the majority of people and erase ambiguities".

The former President's message for tomorrow? "Those who demonstrate or protest must express themselves through legal means. Leaders must also respect the law. There have always been extremist factions and excessive attitudes on both sides... but several problems will be solved if we adopt the path of moderation."

0735 GMT: The Washington Post also has an article today on divisions within the regime, and it benefits --- in comparison to the piece in The Washington Times --- because Thomas Erdbrink is in Tehran. Drawing on public statements by analysts and former MPs, he focuses on the call of conservatives/principlists to end infighting, including the attacks on former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

0715 GMT: This time tomorrow the marchers --- how many? --- will be gathering in Tehran and other cities for the demonstrations on National Students Day, 16 Azar. News has been restricted for almost 24 hours because of the Government clamp-down on the Internet but we are still getting information on the preparations, accompanied by nervousness and excitement.

And the Government clamp-down cannot hide the nerves and tensions within its own ranks. No clearer sign of this than the order from the Culture Ministry, "All permits issued for foreign media to cover news in Tehran have been revoked from December 7 to December 9."

Away from the marches, the rumbling over Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic plans continues. The President has threatened to withdraw his subsidy reform proposals because they were modified by the Parliament, but MPs are resisting, saying it is too late to withdraw the plan.

Barbara Slavin has an interesting approach to the situation in The Washington Times. Relying on US-based experts, she declares "the embattled regime fears showing weakness in the face of persistent domestic political opposition and rising foreign pressure.... Ayatollah Khamenei may instead now be subordinate to the Revolutionary Guards and other paramilitary forces that keep his government afloat."

The most interesting passage in the piece is an attempt by a "senior Administration official" to claim some credit for the internal difficulties: "The Obama strategy has generated a real debate in Iran over nuclear issues," with "a crack in the core" of the regime.

The most interesting oversight in the article? With its obsession with the nuclear issue, it offers only sentence to the imminent sign of dissent, "New protests are expected Monday on Iranian campuses to mark 'National Student Day,' previously a regime-backed event." Somehow I don't think the demonstrations will be just on campuses on Monday.

16 Azar is 1 day away.

The Latest from Iran (3 December): Normal Service?

2000 GMT: What War Game is The Economist Playing Out? The British journal has an "analysis" which, given the publication's usual journalistic standards, is shocking: "An Iranian nuclear bomb, or the bombing of Iran?"

The piece starts with a series of false steps and distortions to get from premise --- the second enrichment plant at Fordoo near Qom --- to conclusion: "brazen", "belligerent" Iran is "on the threshold of becoming a nuclear (military) power". That's pnly a prelude, however, to "news" posing as advocacy of Bomb, Bomb Iran.

The journal gives unwarranted prominence to a road show by two former US Senators and a former Air Force General who are talking up a strike and then intones, "Israel’s threats of military action might be more credible than America’s". That allows The Economist to play big boys with big toys, sketching out how a military attack might unfold, before offering a most sensible "compromise":

So which will it be: a war with Iran, or a nuclear-armed Iran? Short of a revolution that sweeps away the Iranian regime—ushering in one that agrees, like post-apartheid South Africa, to give up its nuclear technology—sanctions may offer the only hope of avoiding the awful choice.

1940 GMT: Strike. A statement from the "Lawyers of the Green Movement of Iranian People" calls for strikes as "a civil action for acquiring one’s rights" and adds this summary of the movement: "The Green Movement doesn’t belong to anybody. Its leaders are different shades of people that are gathered around democracy. It is the people that are leading the movement."

Any information about this initiative would be appreciated, as the group is new to us.

1920 GMT: Preventing 16 Azar. An article in Deutsche Welle summarises that more than 90 students have been arrested in the last three weeks. The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran outlines some of the cases of the "stepped up persecution and prosecution of student activists throughout the country".

1910 GMT: A Signal from the Leader? An EA reader tips us off that Ayatollah Khomeini's office has distributed copies, not published before, of a Supreme Leader speech from this summer reminding members of Parliament of their proper role and responsibilities.

Now, this would have no connection whatsoever with the troublesome rebellion of more than a few legislators against the Ahmadinejad Government, right?

NEW Iran, the Greens, and the ex-Bushman: With Washington Friends Like These, Who Needs….?
Latest Iran Video: A Non-Crowd for Ahmadinejad in Isfahan? (2 December)
Iran: English Text of Ayatollah Montazeri’s Answers on the Green Movement
The Latest from Iran (2 December): Postures and a Resolution

1810 GMT: Any Connection Here? On the same day that a Government minister threatened his son with arrest and trial, Hashemi Rafsanjani put forth another general criticism of that Government: "Today there is no room to hide the matter. The difficulties presented by the political disputes are grave."

Rafsanjani also repeated a call for national unity, linking it to support of Ayatollah Khameini: "I believe there is no one other that the Leader of the Revolution who can bring about unity and we should all assist the leader to create a sympathetic atmosphere where people can be satisfied.” He refrained, however, from specific reference to a National Unity Plan or any demands upon the regime.

So here's the question --- does Rafsanjani reverse his strategy of the last three months and go on an offensive or does he continue with an effective boycott, refusing official functions and duties such as Friday Prayers apart from his leadership of the Expediency Council?

1600 GMT: It's the Economy, Folks. A belated hat-tip to Robert Worth of The New York Times, who published an article on Wednesday about the issues surrounding President Ahmadinejad's proposals for subsidy reform.

1545 GMT: "Soft War" = Less Music, No Make-Up. The head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, Ezatollah Zarghami, has announced that the state outlet will focus on fighting a soft war against Iran's enemies.

In that cause, the new five-year work plan includes: reduced use of music, protection of women through prohibition of make-up, use of more debates, the training of devoted and experienced staff, "a revolutionary and ultra-conservative atmosphere", the spread of hope about the future of the establishment and the raising of public awareness about the positive services provided by it, and the provision of models of the correct lifestyle with a focus on the importance of family values. (Summary at Tehran Bureau)

1515 GMT: Going After Hashemi. According to Rah-e-Sabz, Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi is calling for the arrest and trial of Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi.

1250 GMT: American Tough Guy. National Security Advisor James Jones has laid down the law to Tehran:

By the end of the year we should be able to ascertain what Iran's true colors are on this, and the end of the year is coming. We're still hopeful. The door is still open, but the window is closing.

No coincidence that the Obama officials pushing hardest for sanctions on Iran are located in Jones' National Security Council.

1145 GMT: Two new posts following up our initial update at 0600 GMT --- a full English translation of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's answers on the Green Movement and a video apparently showing a lack of turnout for President Ahmadinejad's speech in Isfahan.

1130 GMT: Mahmoud in a Mood. The President is being just a bit defiant today. He has declared that as Parliament changed his proposal for subsidy reforms, he won't implement the law. (Reuters has an English summary.)

1120 GMT: Dissing Rafsanjani, Defying Khamenei? According to the reformist Parleman News, the President is refusing to attend Expediency Council meetings chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, who is the Head of the Council, even though the Supreme Leader has ordered him to do so.

1020 GMT: Conflicting reports on the Damascus explosion. Most reports still say several dead, but Syrian Minister of Interior is insisting that only three people died after a tyre exploded.

0950 GMT: Protest of the Week. An EA source reveals:

"Last week Mr Ramin, the Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, who was attending the memorial for former Minister Ali Kordan, could not find his shoes when leaving the mosque.

"It seems someone stole Ramin’s shoes to protest Ahmadinejad’s policy toward the press."

0940 GMT: Reuters is reporting six dead in the Damascus blast.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, it appears that the rumours of the scapegoating and even imprisonment of former Tehran Prosecutor General Saeed Mortazavi for post-election abuses can be put to rest. He has been named the President's Inspector General.

0930 GMT: Have just landed in UK to learn of the bomb in Damascus killing Iiranian pilgrims. Update on that and other stories in next hour.

0630 GMT: Protest of the Week. An EA source reveals:

"Last week Mr Ramin, the Deputy Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, who was attending the memorial for former Minister Ali Kordan, could not find his shoes when leaving the mosque.

"It seems someone stole Ramin’s shoes to protest Ahmadinejad’s policy toward the press."

0620 GMT: The Road to 16 Azar? Confirming news from Tuesday: more than 3000 students of Tehran University have invited Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karoubi to participate in demonstrations on 16 Azar (7 December) in the Technical Faculty.

In Parliament, the leading reformist party, the Imam Khomeini Line (Reformists) held a press conference. Hussein Hashemian, the head of the party, said, "We follow Iranian people and in their belief the election is not over. This is why we follow up on their protests." Mohammad Reza Taabesh, the deputy leader added, "What happened after the election was due to the imprudence, inexperience, and carelessness of leaders and people in charge."

MP Dariush Ghanbari pressed the specific case of the abuses at Kahrizak Prison, declaring that Iranian people are still waiting for the open trial of the people in charge.

0610 GMT: While we catch up with internal moves and developments in Iran, international media continue to focus on the nuclear question. President Ahmadinejad furnished them with a soundbite in his Isfahan speech when he declared that Iran would now ensure that it was self-sufficient in producing 20 percent enriched uranium for its medical research reactor.

Go behind the headline and the significance emerges:

1. Ahmadinejad is now responding in an almost knee-jerk fashion. The "10 enrichment plants" declaration now apprears to be a heated reaction from Sunday's Cabinet meeting --- it is being dropped because this is a fantasy, not a plan.

2. That in turn points to an Iranian weakness which may become a hindrance for the President.

Iran's nuclear programme is clearly hindered not only by problems with enrichment capacity but also by a lack of uranium stock. Unless that can be addressed, Ahmadinejad's promises will likely be exposed as bluff.

0600 GMT: Returning from Holland this morning, with updates back to normal from 1200 GMT.

In the meantime, we're noting two stories. It looks like President Ahmadinejad, for all his global travels, is having a hard time with legitimacy at home. Despite extensive publicity for his trip to Isfahan yesterday, with schools asking parents to allow their children to attend, the crowd was far below expectations.

Ahmadinejad's reception can be compared to the far larger crowd
six months ago, when Mohammad Khatami visited Isafahan to support Mir Hossein Mousavi's Presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, more on Grand Ayatollah Montazeri’s answers to questions about the Green Movement, which we noted on Tuesday. Montazeri declared that “people will not be satisfied with anything less than their rightful demands”.

Montazeri asserted, “Killing, threatening, arresting, unlawful prosecutions, handing heavy and unfair sentences to political activists and freedom-seekers and propagating lies, will not affect people's determination.” He praised the Green Movement’s emphasis on a peaceful form of struggle against violations of people’s rights, and he also commended the Movement’s ability to draw the attention and sympathy of international human rights organizations.

Montazeri concluded by condemning the government’s treatment of post-election protesters and detainees and advised the government to respect people’s requests.

The Latest from Iran (1 December): A Week of Expectation

2115 GMT: Hacking the State Media. HomyLafayette has the story of today's cyber-attack on Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting:

At least a dozen web sites connected to the Islamic regime's radio and television broadcasters were hacked early this morning in an orchestrated operation. The attacked web sites include Radio Javan, Radio Payam, Radio Varzesh, Radio Tehran, Radio Qoran, the literary section of the state radio-television's web site, and the Jomeh Irani (NB Iranian Friday) program.

The hackers, calling themselves Y! Underground, substituted the homepages of the attacked web sites with the above image. The Farsi text reads, 'We will stand until the end.' The title of the pages became 'Defaced by Y! Underground.' Most of the web sites were quickly closed down by their technical staff....

Astonishingly, the literary section of IRIB's web site continues to show the image placed on it by the hackers.

2100 GMT: Ahh, This is Why Mahmoud's Upset. Full credit to Reuters for getting the possible story behind the Ahmadinejad warning to Russia tonight (see 2040 GMT). A "senior Russian diplomatic source" has said, "If there is a consensus on Iran sanctions, we will not stand aside."

This appears to be a continued Russian balancing act rather than a shift behind US-led sanctions. "Consensus" may mean that Russia will accept the measures only if China also is willing. And the source cautioned that economic punishment was a longer-term prospect: "We will be thinking about sanctions but this is not an issue of the next few hours or weeks. We would rather have Iran cooperating more openly and consistently with the IAEA and showing clear steps to lift concerns -- which are gaining greater foundation -- than introducing sanctions against Iran."

2040 GMT: More on Ahmadinejad's Defiance. If nothing else, these lines from the President's televised interview are attention-grabbing: ""[Western countries] need us more than we need them. It is psychological warfare and isolating Iran is impossible. Any finger which is about to pull the trigger will be cut off."

More significant may be Ahmadinejad's warning to Moscow to come back into line --- no sanctions, renewed co-operation --- with Tehran, as he criticised the Russian vote on the IAEA resolution criticising Iran's nuclear programme: "Russia made a mistake. It does not have an accurate analysis of today's world situation."

Iran: How Washington Views the Green Opposition — The Next Chapter
Video: The Bahari Interview on CNN (Part 2)
The Latest from Iran (30 November): Nuclear Distraction, Trashing the Greens?

1940 GMT: The Ahmadinejad Speech. After a 24-hour postponement, the President appeared on national television this evening. He offered, in the words of one viewer, "a geography lesson" for his tour of Latin America, comparing Iran favourably to its partners in Venezuela and Brazil.

Then, in the passage that Western media will pick up, Ahmadinejad declared, "Iran's nuclear issue has been resolved....We will hold no talks (with major powers) over this issue. There is no need for talks." He said that Tehran might allow inspectors to some sites or to none at all.

1715 GMT: And Today's Propaganda Warning. Islamic Republic News Agency, besides waving a finger at Hashemi Rafsanjani (1700 GMT) also gives a threatening push to Mir Hossein Mousavi. IRNA uses an interview with a Hojatoleslam to warn Mousavi that, if he keeps helping the enemies of Islam, he might suffer the fate of Abolhassan, Banisadr, the first President of the Islamic Republic who is now in exile in France.

1700 GMT: The Battle over Rafsanjani. Despite the explicit warning of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani to back off, member of Parliament Ali Reza Zakani has maintained his assault on the family of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, declaring that Rafsanjani's son Mehdi Hashemi is still the subject of a criminal investigation.

1645 GMT: It's not only EA readers who have debating which way forward for the Iranian opposition. Grand Ayatollah Montazeri has replied to four questions about the Green movement.

1630 GMT: The Prison Doctor's Death. A twist in the case of Ramin Pourandarjan, the doctor at Kahrizak Prison who died in November. After claims by authorities that Pouranjdarjan committed suicide or was the victim of a heart attack, Tehran Prosecutor General Abbas Jafari Doulatabadi now says that the doctor died of poisoning. Only two weeks ago Doulatabadi's office said Pourandarjan had not been poisoned.

1335 GMT: The Potential Significance of the British Sailor Story. Mr Smith cuts through the stories (see 1155 GMT) to get to the possible importance of the detention of the five British sailors:

As I suspected, the sailors were indeed taken by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps. Guess they want to boast their prowess in the Persian Gulf and warn about they will do inside or outside Iranian territorial waters in case of nuclear strike or even tougher sanctions.

That may be only the start of the matter, however. The IRGC could also use this case to flex their muscle against internal challengers. Conversely, other key figures, including President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader, may have to consider their manoeuvres versus the Revolutionary Guard.

Which is not dissimilar to the "British sailor" incident of two years ago, when 15 of Her Majesty's finest ---military in this case --- were detained. That ended, of course, with the release of the 15, an accomplishment for which Ahmadinejad took credit (although Ali Larijani was a central figure in the negotiations).

Two years on, and in a very different political context, will the IRGC again step back?

1145 GMT: Another Distraction. Looks like the international press will also be mesmerised by the story of the five British (civilian) sailors who have been detained after straying into Iranian waters. The standard line taken by Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai, chief of staff to President Ahmadinejad, "The judiciary will decide about the five ... naturally our measures will be hard and serious if we find out they had evil intentions," is racing across "Western" newspapers as an ominous sign.

The distraction extends to some rather fatuous speculation, as in this from The Guardian of London, "If the sailors arrested in the Persian Gulf are being punished for being British, Tehran's fear of the BBC could be a factor".

1015 GMT: Playing Down The Bluff. Less than 48 hours after shaking its fist with the "10 enrichment plants" declaration, the Iranian Government is edging away. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said this morning that there's not much to see here: If we do not get guarantees (for the delivery of the fuel), naturally we will have plans to move towards self-sufficiency. This is nothing unusual. Officials of some countries have rushed into adopting stances which may be indicative of the fact that they are concerned or angry." (CNN, incidentally, misses the story completely, distorting a general Mehmanparast statement ---"We will not do away with our rights" --- into "Iranian Legal Threat over Nuclear Plans.")

Meanwhile, something for the US to think about if it wants to push confrontation: a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman drew the line against further sanctions, "We should properly resolve this issue through dialogue. All parties should step up diplomatic efforts."

0715 GMT: Better Late than Never. The Associated Press has caught up with the politics of Iran's "10 enrichment plants" declaration, headlining, "Iran Nuke Plans Largely Bluster, Experts Say".

0710 GMT: Iran Contest of the Day. If the Supreme Leader's life was commemorated by Hollywood (see 0655 GMT), what would the title be?

0655 GMT: International news will be dominated today by President Obama's speech on US policy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indeed, it will be interesting to see if there is a breathing space for the Administration on its next steps towards Iran, as everyone in Washington --- including Congressmen and activists pressing for a cut-off of  talks and tougher sanctions --- switch their attention to the Af-Pak political and military corridor.

Which, of course, does not mean that life stops in Iran. Amidst the debate about the state of the Green Movement and its goals, the plans for the demonstrations on 16 Azar are taking shape. Revised routes have now been posted. Here, for example, are the paths of protests in Tehran:

1. Azadi Square - Revolution Square - Tehran University


2. Hafte-Tir Square - St., Karim Khan - Asr Square - Keshavarz Blvd - Street workers - Tehran University


3. Tehran University dormitory complex - North Kargar Ave - Tehran University


4. Amir Kabir University - Cross-Asr - Tehran University


5. Ferdowsi Square - Street Revolution - Tehran University.

There are notes of activities at universities, and you can even follow a second-by-second countdown clock.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Leader took on another enemy on Monday. He stared down "Hollywood" in a meeting with with artists and directors of the Iranian television series "Hazrat Yousuf," a story from the Koran. The challenge to "Western" film was another setpiece in Ayatollah Khamenei's campaign for cultural purity from the arts to the universities to the seminaries.