Iran Analysis: The Regime's Cracks Widen, The Wave Resurges?

Less than 24 hours after we posted our analysis of the politics surrounding and beyond Grand Ayatollah Montazeri's funeral, I think most of the arguments hold up.

The momentum of challenge to the regime has not ebbed. The Western media has turned from bored/gloomy/hostile sceptic into unreserved cheerleader, as in this editorial from The Washington Post, which echoes some of our analysis but with a much louder, dramatic shout:

We would not underestimate the fact that a figure such as this can bring forth multitudes -- even in death -- while Mr. Ahmadinejad is reduced to unleashing his militia and shrieking at the West. The most momentous international event of 2009 was the uprising in Iran, and though the regime's collapse is not imminent, it is hardly unthinkable.

Iran: Is Ayatollah Sane’i The Next Montazeri?
The Latest from Iran (23 December): This Time, No Pause?

More substantially, Faraj Sorkouhi argues that the Supreme Leader's latest public move, the message to those marking Montazeri's death, may further expose a self-glorification being pursued not as an outcome of support for Ayatollah Khameini, but as a reaction to the lack of it. In condemning Montazeri under the cover of offering condolences --- pointing to his "sins", asking God to forgive him, and thus declaring Montazeri's 20 years of isolation and punishment were of a divine nature --- Khamenei may have stepped too far in trying to adpoe his own God-like image.

There are still long-term questions surrounding the aims and organisation of the opposition --- H. Graham Underwood has just posted an interesting consideration of "The Leadership Void" --- but yesterday one of two rising emotions was that these questions were not immovable obstacles. It appears that the inspiration drawn from Montazeri as an opponent of injustice and defender of values, one whose declaration of values would not be broken by the injustice against him, has re-fired the belief of many that it is possible to embody those values in a political movement that can be hindered but cannot be vanquished.

This morning Josh Shahryar takes one path in examining that belief. He suggesting that Ayatollah Sane'i --- who now is in the midst of tensions in Qom, with rumours of a march today by Basiji against his offices --- may be "the next Montazeri": "He represents the same brand of moderate Islam that Montazeri espoused." Others are now looking to Mousavi and Karroubi with an admiration and hope that had been eroded in recent weeks, and still others see the Green Wave as the leader rather than an in-and-out tide of change.

A caution, however, both about the perceived problems of the regime and the renewed possibilities of the movement for reform. The second emotion I noted yesterday was that of a bleak pessimism. While the President may be shouting and posing all the way to irrelevance (note Tuesday's theatre of removing Mousavi from his role as head of the Arts Institute) and while the Supreme Leader may be looking less than all-powerful, there is still the strength of arms of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. The emotion is that, as the Revolutionary Guard will not go quietly into the post-election night and as they have allies in the judicial and security systems who will join them in lashing out at a rising opposition, there is more hardship to come.

Darkest before the dawn?