Latest Iran Video: Interview of the "Basij Member" on the Election and Abuses (16 December)

I initially refrained from posting this video, an interview of a purported Basiji militiaman by Britain's Channel 4 News, with its explosive claims about detainee abuse and rigging of the Presidential election, as I cannot confirm the authenticity of the interviewee and Channel 4 (understandably) offers no evidence to verify his claimed identity. In light of reader feedback, however, I am posting this for viewers to consider the assertions and make their judgements.

The Latest from Iran (17 December): An Uncertain Regime

Iran & The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: "To Men Who Are Not Ashamed of Being a Woman" (Shirin Ebadi)

The Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has written an article about the arrest of student leader Majid Tavakoli and his subsequent display, dressed in hejab, by Iranian authorities and about the mass response "We Are All Majids/We Are All in Hejab":

My dear sons, who were not ashamed of your mother and sister’s scarf and wore it around your head with pride, I’m talking to you.

I do not know what your imprisoned friend Majid Tavakoli really was wearing when he was arrested. I have heard so many lies from news agencies affiliated with the Islamic Republic of Iran’s government that I do not believe a thing they say. It is not important if he was dressed up as a man or a woman when he was arrested. What is important is that he was arrested was against the law, and that, when he was arrested, the beating he received for his words were so harsh that they became nightmares for his friends. But they did not know that you have dreams, not nightmares; that you are not afraid of the dictator but the cause of dictators’ fears.

UPDATED Iran: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli “His 16 Azar Speech on Video”
Iran’s Arrest of Majid Tavakoli: “Khamenei in Hejab/We Are All Majids”
Iran’s 16 Azar: The Arrest of Majid Tavakoli

My studious children, with your symbolic move, you defended not your imprisoned friend but also the being a “woman.” You demonstrated with your action that you oppose discriminatory laws. You oppose a law that regards a woman not as a human being, but as half a human being, equaling the testimony of two women in court with that of one man.

You the youth shouted that you respect your mothers and defend the human rights of your sisters. You interpreted the concept of “feminist” once again for the interrogators. Many of my daughters were sentenced to prison terms by the injustice system for the crime of being a “feminist”.

The state-run media in Iran has been making all kinds of accusations against us for years because we are feminists, while from our point of view feminist means “being a woman” and being proud of it, nothing more. Those who regard themselves as higher than their mothers simply because they are men must be ashamed and embarrassed. The stigma attaches to those who grew up because of and were nourished by their mothers, but imposed salaries for themselves double those of their mothers when they reached power, simply because they were men.

They, passing their discriminatory laws, are the ones responsible for the law that does not give ever murdered women the same rights as murdered men. They even imposed gender quotas in universities to create a dam against the entrance of your sisters into universities. They have tried to extinguish the women’s voice for equality under the rubric of “acting against national security,” authorizing their officers to arrest, threaten and beat women who demanded equal rights.

My dear sons, with your wise reaction to wear women’s Hijab to protest the unjust rulers, from now on, more than belonging to the “student movement”, you belong to the “women’s movement.” We pridefully will note your symbolic move in the history of our movement.

Israel-Palestine Analysis: Did Britain Just Endorse Israel's "Moral" War in Gaza?

Following British Foreign Minister David Miliband's emphasis on the "strategic partnership" between Israel and Britain, Prime Minister Gordon Brown telephoned former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on Wednesday and expressed his objection to the arrest warrant issued by a London court against her. Brown stated that Livni is always welcome in the United Kingdom and assured Livni that his government will seek to change the legal system.

Israel and Britain: The Reaction to the Livni Arrest Warrant

Meanwhile, eight IDF soldiers received medals of honor on the same day for heroism they showed during Operation Cast Lead last year.Major-General Yoav Galant underlined the "moral values" of the Israeli Defense Forces, with its soldiers committed to preserving these values even during the offensive in the Gaza Strip. Galant said:

The IDF reached its goals. The enemy was badly beaten. IDF soldiers acted out of faith in the justice of our cause, and their moral norms are praiseworthy. In the tough hours of the trial through fire you bravely and resiliently persevered. You are a lighthouse of morality and values.

So, does Brown's apology to Livni constitute a British endorsement of Israel's "moral" war in Gaza?

Palestine Inside Line: Abbas Term Extended Indefinitely

On Wednesday, the Palestine Liberation Organization indefinitely extended Mahmoud Abbas's term as Palestinian Authority President and endorsed his refusal to negotiate with Israel unless it freezes all settlement construction. The extension of the term also applies to parliament members so that the Abbas Government can continue until new elections can be held in "the entire homeland."

Hamas, which is in political control of Gaza, called the decision  "a confiscation of democracy". The organisation's spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, said, "The Central Council is not elected and illegal, and all of its decisions are illegal and not binding on our people."

The first comment from the Israeli front was "Come to the negotiating table." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's spokesman Mark Regev said: "We have just seen the Palestinian leadership place more and more obstacles in restarting the talks. I call upon the Palestinian side to stop making excuses and return to talks."

So, here is Abbas's welcome party! Now, there is more than the deadlock on the table for him. After using his last card, he is faced with stronger expectations for further steps! However, none of these expectations have changed!

Iran Analysis: The Regime's Sword Wavers

Enduring America, 14 December: "What can the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard do with a Sword which, for all the detentions and all the propaganda, dangles not as a sign of its threat but of (for now) its impotence?"

Even by the standards of this post-election conflict, the last 48 hours have been extraordinary for their rhetoric. At one point, there were no less than five regime officials (head of judiciary Sadegh Larijani, Minister of Intelligence Heydar Moslehi, Supreme Leader representative Mojtaba Zolnour, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, Tehran Governor Morteza Tamedon) throwing around threats of arrests. Yet the opposition was even more spirited and even more high-profile: both Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mehdi Karroubi met the threats with defiance and more than a little humour (both were quite concerned about Yazdi's health, physical and mental), MPs offered public support, Mir Hossein Mousavi's Alireza Beheshti challenged the regime's continuous "lies about imperialism", and Mousavi's wife, Zahra Rahnavard, held up the Green Movement as the representative of the ideals of Imam Khomeini.

The Latest from Iran (17 December): An Uncertain Regime

And the outcome today, on the eve of the holy month of Moharram? A regime, nervous and possibly a bit frightened, which can neither swing its Sword of Damocles nor keep it steady.



Yesterday afternoon EA correspondent Mr Azadi began putting the pieces together. On Tuesday, Yazdi had put out his scathing ridicule of the "joke" of Karroubi and threatened Hashemi Rafsanjani's son, Mehdi Hashemi, with arrest if he stepped foot in Iran, Tamedon had talked both of security forces on alert for troublemakers on Friday and of Rafsanjani, and Zolnour apparently said all the opposition leaders should be rounded up. Then yesterday, it emerged that both Larijani and Moslehi were telling important groups of officials and clerics that the evidence was in place to hold trials; the Minister of Intelligence was now spinning a conspiracy tale in which representatives of Hashemi Rafsanjani had planned the post-election conflict in Britain with foreign agents.

The speeches were not necessarily co-ordinated. Indeed, because they probably weren't, they were far short of successful. Larijani's statement, which should have been the most significant given his official position, was a bit lost in crowded airspace, while Moslehi's speech --- at least to my outside eyes --- comes across as extreme. Is the regime really saying that Mehdi Hashemi and Rafsanjani's daughter, Faezeh Hashemi (who is in Iran), go on trial as part of the inner circle of the "velvet revolution"?

Instead of cowing the opposition into submission, the volley of regime shots were met by a furious counter-attack. Karroubi was careful, in a well-crafted response, to focus on Yazdi rather than swinging at officials such as Larijani and Moslehi, but Rafsanjani, durig the course of the day, took on not only Yazdi ("Get Help", "Get Cured") but the regime in general. Perhaps the former President was planning, after months of relative silence and uncertain manoeuvres, to surface but it appears that the attacks on him and his family helped make up his mind.

The irony is that, if the regime had kept its mouth shut or at least been more measured in its attacks, it could have left the opposition, rather than itself, in wobbling confusion. The Green movement seemed to be undecided, or even split, over tactics for the first day of Moharram. Should it join the Government-authorised marches, behind the message of "The Ideals of Khomeini are Our Ideals", or should it stand aside and let the regime have the field of demonstrations to itself for the first time in six months?

Supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi put out a letter, with a picture of Mousavi, favouring a public appearance but other activists balked: 1) some feared this would lead to violent clashes; 2) some did not want to associated with any march in honour of Khomeini, even if it had the symbols of resistance of Imam Hossein, whose death is marked by Moharram; 3) some argued that staying away would embarrass the regime when the outcome of a relatively small demonstration showed the lack of support for the Government. This morning, the argument is still unresolved.

Yet this debate in the opposition camp is secondary to the image of the regime's fist-shaking being met by a smack from Karroubi, who had been muted in recent weeks, Rafsanjani, and others. So why did it make such an inept move?

The more I look at events, the more I think that in part the answer is a fear of Rafsanjani. It was notable, for example, that Moslehi's attack did not name any other leader apart from the former President: Mousavi, Karroubi, and Mohammad Khatami were all absent from the speech. And it may be equally notable that Tehran Government Tamedon specifically referred to Rafsanjani's 6 December speech in Mashhad as an unacceptable challenge to the regime.

At the time of the speech, we published not only an extract from the speech but an analysis pointing to discussions between senior clerics and Rafsanjani as part of a renewed effort for a "National Unity Plan" or similar political compromise between the regime and the Green opposition. This prospect was challenged by others as an illusory hope but we still maintained this: what mattered was whether the regime thought the initiative was serious, causing it discomfort and prompting a response.

The last 48 hours mark that response: the Government is worried about Rafsanjani, possibly even more than the protests on the streets or the Mousavi-Karroubi-Khatami alliance. My hunch --- and it is only a hunch --- is that regime officials think Rafsanjani might have planned a high-profile appearance, if not tomorrow than at some point leading up to or on  the special day of Ashura (27 December), to mark his defiance of the Ahmadinejad Government. For the first time since his Friday Prayer of mid-July, the trumpet (or alarm, in the ears of the regime) would be sounded: Hashemi's Back, Hashemi's Here.

If true, that's a pretty significant development in the ongoing battle. But I think the threats also come from a second fear, and this one may be more important.

The regime is worried about its own supporters. Uncertainty and fright comes from the prospect that the large numbers won't show up tomorrow. The Friday Prayer congregation at Tehran University will be full, but how many will then go on the streets? And, if they are on the streets, how loud will they be for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad rather than Imam Hossein?

For six months, from the day-after-election "they are all dust" victory speech of Ahmadinejad to the 19 June Friday Prayer speech of the Supreme Leader to this Sunday's reprise of Ayatollah Khamenei --- not to mention the actions beyond the speeches from detentions to security presence to the steady propaganda brumbeat --- the regime has relied on attack.

But a swinging sword does not necessarily find its target. And it does not necessarily bring legitimacy (irrespective of the words of Machiavelli). So tomorrow's test is not of how many come for the opposition but, arguably for the first time since 12 June, how many come out for the Supreme Leader, for the President, and for current regime and its actions.