Iraq: How Serious is the Sunni Election Boycott?

We've been trying to get our heads around the significance of Saturday's announcement that one of Iraq's largest Sunni political parties is going to boycott the forthcoming national elections. The New York Times plays down the story. Juan Cole also thinks that the effect on the election will not be devastating, but he considers the longer-term maneouvres and probable benefits to the leading Shi'a factions:

The Los Angeles Times reports that the National Dialogue Front, a secular party led by Salih Mutlak, is calling for a boycott of the March 7 parliamentary elections in Iraq. The NDF has 11 seats in parliament, but Mutlak and another prominent party member were among over 500 candidates (out of over 6000) for parliament disqualified as too close to the prohibited Baath Party. Many of those excluded from running had openly criticized the provision in the Iraqi constitution that bans members of the Baath Party from public life. The purge of Mutlak has been widely condemned in Iraq as unfair, since he left the party in the late 1970s.


Mutlak announced that the boycott decision was taken after remarks by American leaders in Iraq that the banning of candidates had been instigated by Iran. Mutlak said that the upcoming polls in Iraq had been hijacked by Iran and were being conducted according to the Iranian rules, wherein the regime predetermines who wins and some candidates are excluded from running.

Some observers worry that there will be a mass Sunni boycott of the elections, as happened with disastrous effects in January of 2005. I don't think that catastrophe can now be repeated, because at that time the elections were held on a nation-wide basis. The current elections instead have Iraqi provinces as the electoral unit. Thus, the largely Sunni provinces of al-Anbar, Salahuddin and Ninevah will return a lot of Sunni members of parliament even with a boycott (the resulting members of parliament just would not represent that many people).

Liz Sly of the LAT says that there are two main Shiite blocs for the first time in this election (the first two parliamentary elections saw the Shiite religious parties unite into a single coalition). But she says that the two " have an informal agreement" to come together as a mega-coalition after the elections, which will enable them to form the government. (In the Iraqi constitution, the largest single party or coalition in parliament gets first shot at choosing the prime minister.)

I have argued that the Shiite-dominated Accountability and Justice Committee may have banned Mutlak precisely in hopes that his National Dialogue Front would boycott, thus depriving the Iraqiya list of enough seats to make a bid to form the government.

Al-Hayat reports in Arabic that the National Dialogue Front gave as further reasons for its boycott that it was also concerned about the lack of security for elections, by the government's arbitrary arrest of its candidates and party workers, and by the lack of a truly independent high electoral commission.

In contrast, the National Iraqi List, headed by former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi-- which the National Dialogue Front had joined in a coalition effort-- announced that it would begin campaigning in earnest after last week's one-week hiatus. Allawi kicked off the campaign with a visit to the capital of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh, for consultations with King Abdullah. Saudi Arabia has backed Iraqi Sunnis behind the scenes, and is worried about Iranian influence in Iraq.

Meanwhile, the main Shiite bloc, the National Iraqi Alliance (which includes the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, formed in 1982 in Iran), accused the United States of interfering in Iraqi domestic politics and of plotting to bring the Baath Party back into prominence as the "neo-Baath."

Middle East Inside Line: Gaza Clashes, Israel to Be "Delegitimized"?; Ceasefire in Yemen

Gaza Clashes: Israel Defense Forces soldiers on Friday opened artillery and gun fire on a group of four Palestinians rigging explosives near the Gaza border. Two of Palestinians were killed. Following the incident Hamas's Khaled Meshal, in an interview with London-based Al Hayat newspaper, threatened that a new conflict would not be limited to Gaza.

Israel Tries to Cut Off Gaza Enquiry: The Jerusalem Post has learned that the response Israel gave to United Nations on the investigations it is conducting into Operation Cast Lead seeks to deter UN action.

"Israel feels the report it gave was a serious, comprehensive, credible and complete answer to the UN secretary-general,” one senior official in the Prime Minister’s Office said.


Meanwhile, according to a report by the Reut Institute, a Tel-Aviv-based think tank, Israel is facing a global campaign of delegitimization from demonstrations on campuses, protests when Israeli athletes compete abroad, moves in Europe to boycott Israeli products, and threats of arrest warrants for Israeli leaders visiting London. The think tank called on ministers to treat the matter as a strategic threat.

Blair as Player in Israel-Palestine Talks?: On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the envoy of the Quartet (the United States, the European Union, the United Nations and Russia), Tony Blair, will "intensify" his work with U.S. negotiator George Mitchell to broker peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.

Yemen Cease-fire: A new ceasefire between the Yemeni government and northern Shia rebels came into forcetoday.

"We have decided to halt military operations in the north-western region … to stop bloodshed, bring peace to the region, the return of displaced people to their villages, reconstruction and achieve national reconciliation," Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh's office said in a statement.

Israel-Lebanon: Why the Talk of War?

According to State Department official Jeff Feltman, as quoted by the London-based Al-Hayat daily newspaper, Washington is concerned that the continued flow of arms to Hezbollah could prompt a war between Israel and Lebanon. Feltman said "many reports" describing the quantity and types of weapons being smuggled to the organization are proof of the failure of United Nations Resolution 1701, which put an end to the conflict in 2006 and demanded a weapons-free south Lebanon.

On Tuesday, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said:

Hezbollah is in the Lebanese government and is developing a military force under the government.

These weapons are without doubt aimed at Israeli civilians. It is the responsibility of the Lebanese government to prevent attacks against Israel and its citizens.

Meanwhile, Iran's Press TV has declared that a secret meeting took between the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Leon Panetta, and Israeli officials on 28 January, in which Israeli cabinet minister Yossi Peled said that another confrontation with Lebanon’s Hezbollah was almost inevitable.