Iran Snap Analysis: What is The Next Step Against the Reformists?

Friday was a relatively quiet day in Iran, with economic issues from currency falls to sanctions to the delay in subsidy cuts taking up most of our attention. 

There was the diversion of Ayatollah Emami Kashani's Friday Prayer, with its restatement of President Ahmadinejad's "Who Caused 9-11?" call, but the most significant development was the news that the head and deputy of the Freedom Movement of Iran, Ebrahim Yazdi and Hashem Sabbaghian, had been arrested. 

The Freedom Movement of Iran, which is formally banned in Iran, has long been crippled by state repression. Many of its members are in detention; Yazdi, who is in his 70s, was briefly imprisoned after the election. 

So why go this step further and put the top two members behind bars?

The answer may lie in the regime's consideration of what to do about our trouble-making parties. The judiciary has recently claimed that the Mojahedin of Islamic Revolution and Islamic Iran Participation Front, both much larger than Freedom Movement, have been banned; the two parties claim that the announcement is premature, as the court proceedings are ongoing.

So tossing Yazdi and Sabbaghian into prison may be a rather spiteful signal: OK, you're not formally banned, but we can still take you down. The charges against the Freedom Movement leaders verged on the ridiculous: they had allegedly pursuaded "Wahhabists" to hold a Friday Prayer in Isfahan, thus supporting "extremists", but who was to stop the authorities? And I doubt that the MIR and IIPF need to be reminded that many of their members have been and, in some cases, still are in detention.

But there have been red lines for the regime so far. Current members of Parliament have not been touched, even if they have been vocal in criticising the Government. The Iranian authorities have not made the sweeping declaration that all the MIR and IIPF leadership are beyond the law. And, of course, the pressure on Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi has not extended to formal legal action, let alone a trip to Evin Prison.

However, the crude paradox continues. The regime and Government claim they are stable. They claim they have vanquished the illegitimate post-election opposition. They claim that "Iran" is supported by its people and has stood up to the West as a unified nation.

Yet, in this secure state, the repression escalates. At least some in the Government are not secure in those declarations of stability and unity. So another site has to be shut down, another arrest has to be made, another trial has to be held, another sentence handed down.

How far can they go?