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Sunday
Oct312010

The Latest from Iran (31 October): Please Do Not Be Scared

1940 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. Rah-e-Sabz reports that legislators have been not convinced by the government's remarks on subsidy cuts and have asked for a new meeting.

The website adds that the government will take money from banks for refunds.

1755 GMT: Holding Off on More Repression? Gholamhossein Esmaili, the head of Iran's prisons organisation, says the definition of "political crime" has been postponed because of more important issues.

1735 GMT: Warning of the Day. Approaching 4 November, the anniversary of the takeover of the US Embassy, Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri has warned that today some embassies play the same role as "American's den of espionage" as the US embassy did in 1979. Jazayeri said Iran must turn the day into an international day of "Death to America" against spies and foreign intervention.

1715 GMT: A Qom Compromise? Ayatollah Morteza Moqtadaie, the head of Qom's seminaries, has said that velayat-e faqih (clerical supremacy) has become a part of the formal studies of howzahs.

EA sources indicated during the Supreme Leader's recent visit to Qom that a compromise was struck with senior clerics, in which Ayatollah Khamenei would not call for a formal takeover of the seminaries. This step appears to be part of the deal.

1655 GMT: University Shut-Down. More information coming in on the Government's sudden closure of the Tehran University of Medical Sciences....

Rah-e-Sabz reports that Parliament was uninformed and its Health Commission has held an emergency meeting today. Dr. Pezeshkian, a member of the Commission asserted that the Ministry of Health had no legal right to dissolve the university and must report to the Majlis immediately, otherwise there will be a formal inquiry.

Former Minister of Health Alireza Marandi said that he has received numerous calls from the university staff without being able to give them an answer.

Rah-e-Sabz claims the order to dissolve the university was not issued by the Minister of Health but by Ahmadinejad advisor Lotfollah Forouzandeh.

Mehr has a list of 19 reshuffled staff.

1630 GMT: Currency Watch. In Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's wide-ranging Saturday night interview, this might be one of the most interesting aspects....

The President called on Iran's Central Bank to intervene further to "normalise" the foreign exchange rate to an "acceptable" figure.

Ahmadinejad's call to strengthen the Iranian toman against the US dollar and other currencies is effectively a demand that the Central Bank inject more of its foreign reserves into the system. The President said Iran's "huge" reserves, which he put at more than $100 billion, should enable this.

The question is whether Iran has that level of reserves: amidst the recent large-scale Central Bank intervention to stabilise the toman, a former Iranian official said the reserve was down to $80 billion.

And the summary in Mehr also contains a valuable "confession". During this month's currency crunch, the Government maintained that there had not been a significant drop in the toman's value. Mehr reports, however, "The greenback rates rose sharply in late September and surged to around 12,500 rials, but the central bank's intervention measures reduced the market price to some 10,500 rials."

1435 GMT: Reformist Watch. Radio Zamaneh has more detail in English of the lifting of the ban on the headquarters of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli Party.

1420 GMT: Academic Shutdown. More on the sudden closure of the Tehran University of Medical Sciences....

Nursing students staged a sit-in protest, and riot forces surrounded the building.

1415 GMT: Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting. A few more details on how Mehdi Karroubi and Mir Hossein Mousavi managed to have a face-to-face chat this morning....

When Karroubi and his son first tried to visit Mousavi at his home, security agents blocked them. Mousavi sent out his personal car, however, and was able to get them past the blockade.

1330 GMT: Reformists Re-Opened. Hojatoleslam Rasool Montajebnia, the Deputy Secretary-General of Mehdi Karroubi's Etemade Melli Party, says the ban on the party's headquarters has been lifted.

The headquarters was raided and closed by Iranian authorities in September 2009.

1150 GMT: Academic Shutdown. Some faculty of the Tehran University Medical Sciences have protested that the sudden dissolution of the institution (see 1040 GMT) is illegal.

1135 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Attorney Mohammad Seifzadeh has been given a nine-year prison sentence and a 10-year ban from work.

1055 GMT: Karroubi-Mousavi Meeting? Saham News appears to be reporting that, despite the efforts of security forces, Mehdi Karroubi was able to meet Mir Hossein Mousavi this morning.

1045 GMT: In the Classroom. Mohammad Reza Naqdi, the head of the Basij militia, says that his organisation wants to have "more direct influence" on the content of student textbooks.

1040 GMT: Academic Shutdown. The shock of the sudden closure, by the Minister of Health, of the Tehran University of Medical Sciences is still resonating. Iranian Labor News Agency is reporting that TUMS nursing students are being refused admission by the main University.

1035 GMT: Economy Watch. In the midst of an overview of the subsidy cuts issue, the Los Angeles Times offers this striking observation: "Iranians have noticed steep increases in the price of heating oil, electricity and water....A kilogram (2.2 pounds) of ground beef that cost about $6 five years ago now costs $14.50, while taxi fares that used to cost $2 now cost $5."

1030 GMT: Playing Hard to Get on Nuke Talks. The Iranian Government continues to put out its message to the US and other powers, "We'll discuss uranium enrichment but only with our agenda."

President Ahmadinejad's media advisor, Ali Akbar Javanfekr, declared on Sunday to Fars, "We will not be talking with the Western party about the nuclear energy issue in this round of the negotiations with this party," which kind of raises the question of why everyone would be going to Geneva in mid-November --- as reports on Saturday indicated --- apart from chocolate and cuckoo clocks.

In his Saturday night television interview, Ahmadinejad put out his coded reference to talks on an Iranian agenda, which probably means no prohibition on uranium enrichment inside the country: "From the very beginning we told them that they have no option but negotiating with Iran. But it should be based on justice."

The President also said the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, Germany, France, Russia, and China) should declare their opinion on Israel's alleged nuclear arsenal.

1000 GMT: Karroubi Watch. Still waiting for the full English translation of Mehdi Karroubi's latest intervention, made as he met on Thursday with the families of detained student alumni activists Hassan Assadi Zeidabadi and Ali Jamali. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has a highlight sound-bite:

Those who claim they have brought the Green movement under control the, if that is the case why do they speak of sedition every day. If the sedition is dead, then why do you speak behind the back of the dead? And why are they interested in its every move? And if the sedition is dead, why is there no end to your arrests?...

The situation is very bad and worrying. The work of the judicial and intelligence bodies has no legal justification. Unfortunately, judges have no influence, and interrogators from security agencies have the last word....The legal and right-seeking movement of the Iranian people continues. You -- with your arrests and all your propaganda -- can’t stop it, and the people’s movement for reforms will continue until it reaches some results.

0830 GMT: And We're Rich. Mahmoud Bahmani, the head of Iran's Central Bank, declared on Saturday:

For the next 10 years, there will be no need to import gold. Last year, when the price of each ounce of gold worldwide was on average $656, a few hundred tons of gold were imported. At present, the price of each ounce of gold is $1,230. Consequently, the value of the national reserves has risen by a few billion dollars.

0825 GMT: No, Really, Don't Be Scared --- We are "Incomparable". Another snippet from the Ahmadinejad interview...

Describing Iran and the US as “two current global powers,” Ahmadinejad said, “In the horizon of the [Iranian calendar] year 1404 (2025), the world will change and the life of the Iranian nation will be at the highest level.”

Ahmadinejad analysis that there is no optimism left in Europe and the United States "at a time when Iranians are brimming with optimism, motivation and self-confidence".

0820 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Postgraduate student Shafigh Hadavi has been arrested by security forces.

Hadavi is the son of Mohammad Amin Hadavi, an economic activist and former member of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, who was detained on 15 October at Imam Khomeini Airport. 

0730 GMT: I Do Not Want to Scare You, So I Am Not Going to Tell You. Another note on the Ahmadinejad TV interview last night: he explained that he was not going to give the exact timeline of the implementation of the subsidy cuts "to minimise the consequences".

0700 GMT: Economy Watch. The Deputy Minister of Trade offers the reassurance that the ban on some imports, especially wheat for bread, has been lifted

0640 GMT: It may be Halloween, but today starts with soothing messages from the Iranian regime, especially over the prospective fright of subsidy cuts.

In his nationally-televised interview last night, President Ahmadinejad was emphasising the money that some families would receive as support payments --- $78 every two months --- rather than higher prices for all. But his 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi went much farther: after the subsidy cuts are implemented, there will be no poor people in Iran.

Minister of Interior Mostafa Mohammad Najjar's own reassurance was that Iran is in the "best" security situation now, with all provinces prepared for the introduction of the cuts.

Meanwhile, Deputy Speaker Mohammad Hassan Abutorabi-Fard said there will be a private meeting on the cuts on Sunday.

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