Turkey's Constitutional Referendum: Follow-Up Analyses --- Victory or Diversion?

Yesterday we featured an analysis by Dr Basak Alpan of Sunday's referendum in Turkey, in which 58% of voters approved 26 amendments to the 1982 Constitution. Alpan was pessimistic about the significance of the "Yes" vote: "It is not yet clear how the social forces of the Turkish political landscape will react to the new constitution but it is crystal-clear that neither the ‘yes’ side nor the ‘no’ side won at yesterday’s referendum. All of us --- except for the Executive and the business world, with its obsession with "stability" --- lost."

Some other assessments of the vote and the apparent victory of the ruling Justice and Development Party:

Nuh Yilmaz, Foreign Policy magazine, "Turkey's Referendum: Thwarting the Specter of Coup d'Etat":

Of singular importance to a democratic Turkey is the ability to now carry forth with a reckoning of its past through the full range of the law (i.e. trials) -- something that was impossible with the hitherto assured immunity for those who enacted the 1980 coup. A dark chapter in Turkish history can now be closed and a brighter more democratic future awaits it. In the long-run, the strength of Turkey's political institutions and the latitude of Turkey's civilian leaders to legislate and govern will be increased.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's track record for dealing with the pressure of military elites shows that a strong civilian political leader can do away with the threat of a coup. However, with this vote, the strength of political leadership vis-à-vis the traditional state elites will not be restricted to Erdogan's personal charisma. Instead, by eliminating the supremacy of military and civilian bureaucratic power over Turkish domestic and foreign policy, these amendments will give legal and structural guarantees to political figures, transforming Erdogan's personal success against state elites into an institutional characteristic of the Turkish political system.

The next step is the establishment of a new democratic constitution as promised by Erdogan....

Asli U. Bali, Foreign Policy magazine, "Turkey's Referendum: Creating Constitutional Checks and Balances":

Whatever the intentions harbored by members of the AKP or the opposition, the reforms represent another step in the direction of improved fundamental rights, judicial accountability and civilian control over government. While the test of some of these reforms will be in the implementation, there is much to celebrate for Turks as the thirtieth anniversary of the 1980 military coup ushers in a welcome set of amendments and confirms the ongoing commitment of the Turkish electorate to the path of political liberalization.

Robert Tait, Asia Times Online, "Victorious Erdogan Looks to Bigger Prize":

For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it seems, once is not enough. No sooner had Turkey's combative prime minister scored an emphatic victory in his drive to amend his country's constitution than he was setting his eyes on a bigger prize. 

Addressing thousands of supporters in Istanbul late on September 12, Erdogan vowed to use that day's referendum triumph as a platform to secure a third term in which his governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) would set about writing an entirely new constitution.