Israel-Iran Analysis: Assessing Israeli Government's Latest Moves Towards Tehran

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the only way to stop Iran's nuclear programme is to back economic sanctions with a "credible military option". However, in contrast to speculation only last autumn that Israel was on the verge of an attack, Netanyahu added: "If there is credible military option, you won't need to use it." 

Haaretz's Aluf Benn illuminates both domestic political calculations, before elections, and the regional power balance around Netanyahus statement. According to Benn, there are "moderates" who are against a military strike on Iran and "aggressors" who, at least, want the option on the table. Despite President Shimon Peres's efforts, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, whom the premier wants to keep as close as possible, insist Iran should be presented as an "existential threat". However, Mossad, including its new head Tamir Pardo), Shin Bet, and military intelligence are maintaining distance from a war scenario, since it will be their heads off first if objectives cannot be achieved quickly. The Obama Administration is also on the side of the moderates. 

[Editor's Note: This political calculus --- usually missed by observers outside Israel --- is the context for the recent assessment of outgoing Mossad chief Meir Dagan that Iran will not have capability for a nuclear weapon before 2015.]

On the regional level, Benn underlines: 

What is clear is that to date Iran has managed to deter Israel against military action, through its rockets and missiles deployed in places outside its borders. In that way, the enemy achieved strategic balance without a single nuclear bomb.

Netanyahu still cannot bomb Tehran without a green light from Washington. That is why, for all his rhetoric on the existential threat, Netanyahu highlighted the second part of his argument: not a war but a threat to deter the threat of a war.

The more intriguing issue is whether this makes much difference if Tehran has already "achieved strategic balance without a single nuclear bomb".