Libya Snap Analysis: Three Down --- How Many To Go?

A crowd in the Bab Amr section of the Syrian city Homs celebrates the end of Muammar Qaddafi with singing and fireworks

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Amidst the drama and the uncertainty over the death of Muammar Qaddafi --- how exactly was he slain? from injuries in an airstrike, a shoot-out, or (most likely, I think) an execution as he was being transported on a truck? --- this message came in from an Egyptian activist, Mahmoud Salem:

"One fled, one tried, one dead. If this keeps on at the same rate, Bashar will be smitten by God or something."

Those two sentences cut to the quick both of the day and of days far beyond. While the end of Qaddafi was riveting in excitement, tension, joy, and horror --- depending on the development and one's perspective --- it was a closing scene for only one act of the Libyan story. The former Libyan leader had been finished when Tripoli fell in August. The next two months leading to his demise, with the falls of his last strongholds, was only a coda, with the surprise lying in the realisation that he had not fled the country he led for 42 years.

His death is likely to bring a significant closure for many, but other important matters had already been opened. Libya faces a daunting challenge of political, economic, and social reconstruction. Only hours before the Qaddafi story broke, there were articles with shadows about feuds between the National Transitional Council's military commanders and financial mismanagement within its ranks.

Such articles are inevitable amidst post-Qaddafi uncertainty. And after the cremation of his body and the reams of obituaries, those articles will re-emerge. The next steps for Libya's politicians and its people may not be as compelling as Friday's show, but they are likely to be far more significant.

But, as Mahmoud Salem saw, there was a resonance far beyond Libya in the confirmation of Qaddafi's end. "One fled" --- Ben Ali of Tunisia. "One tried" --- Mubarak of Egypt. One dead. And next?

Syrian and Yemeni activists, inside and outside their countries, were buzzing yesterday. Just as Ben Ali's fall had fed expectations in Egypt, just as Mubarak's posted the message that anything was possible v. a ruler, the demise of Qaddafi --- as he himself noted, second only to the Queen of England in years as head of state --- will give a shot of enthusiasm and confidence to those seeking the end of the rule of Bashar al Assad or Ali Abdullah Saleh.

How convenient for Qaddafi's story to play out on the eve of a Friday, the day of prayer and protest across the Middle East. How fitting that the uncertainty over the details matched to --- let's be honest --- the excitement for many that he was finally gone merely raises the curtain on more uncertainty and excitement of today, next week, next month.