Iran Snap Analysis: The US Strikes a Military Pose

Part 3 of our special analysis on this week's IAEA report on the Iranian nuclear programme was going to move from a dissection of the document's findings and its sources to the politics behind it. Put bluntly, the report was part of a diplomatic and public-relations move by the US and its closest allies to push for further sanctions against Tehran, trying to overcome the resistance of Russia and China over new UN measures and --- failing that --- implementing new steps through individual countries and the European Union.

But within hours of the document's release, we saw a problem. Russia and then China signalled that they would not be swayed. And the US was facing a roadblock to its next moves --- European allies make clear that they would not back sanctions on Iran's Central Bank or further punishment of the energy sector.

So what to do?

From The Wall Street Journal this morning:

The Obama administration has quietly drawn up plans to provide a key Persian Gulf ally with thousands of advanced "bunker-buster" bombs and other munitions, part of a stepped-up U.S. effort to build a regional coalition to counter Iran.

The proposed sale to the United Arab Emirates would vastly expand the existing capabilities of the country's air force to target fixed structures, which could include bunkers and tunnels—the kind of installations where Iran is believed to be developing weapons.

The move represents one way the Obama administration intends to keep Iran in check, as it struggles to find adequate backing for new United Nations sanctions....

In recent months, the U.S. has begun holding a regular strategic dialogue with the GCC bloc. And the Pentagon has been trying to improve intelligence-sharing and military compatibility among the six countries....

Recent arms deals include a record $60 billion plan to sell Saudi Arabia advanced F-15 aircraft, some to be equipped 2,000-pound JDAMs and other powerful munitions. The Pentagon recently notified Congress of plans to sell Stinger missiles and medium-range, air-to-air missiles to Oman.

The U.S. has also sought to build up missile-defense systems across the region, with the goal of building an integrated network to defend against short- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles from Iran.

These steps, of course, were not directly tied to the IAEA report. Washington has long been planning a flexing of military muscle through weaponry to the States it is backing, as well as a re-alignment of US forces. The strategy has also been shaped by a drawing-down --- not a full withdrawal, as the press mistakenly presents at times, but a draw-down --- of the American presence in Iraq.

It is the timing that is important here. By putting out the story through The Journal, the Administration is trying to escape the cul-de-sac of its lack of economic options. And, beyond the immediate chest-pushing with Iran, there are the far from insignificant incentives for President Obama and his team to look tough, both for a hawkish Congress and for an upcoming election campaign.

Will the steps make a real difference in the regional jostling with Tehran, let alone Washington's drive for international isolation of Iran? I doubt it --- the significant game is the context for political influence amidst shifting circumstances, as the events across North Africa and the Middle East should have brought home to Washington this year --- but when in doubt....

Strike a pose.