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Sunday
Nov062011

Iran Feature: Explaining the Israeli "War Talk" --- Look to the Domestic Politics...And Who Wins (Zilber)

Israel-based analyst Neri Zilber puts this week's "war talk" from Israel --- which began with claimed signals from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office of the pursuit of a Cabinet consensus for an attack on Iran --- into perspective:

Israeli posturing is for the benefit of the international community, to increase pressure on Iran.  The only difference this time is the heightened intensity of the internal debate within the Israeli security establishment, which is leaking out in torrents.

The benefits to Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak of this media campaign are immense, and are not just limited to the upcoming International Atomic Energy Agency report and potential UN Security Council action:

1) Barak has been engaged in a fierce battle with the Treasury ministry over the defense budget, which has been threatened due to this summer's social protest movement. How can you slash the defense budget with a regional war in the offing?

2) Any negative news regarding same social protest, ongoing doctor's strike, moribund peace process, and new settlement construction have   been buried under blaring headlines on the Iran story.

3) After the return of Gilad Shalit [the Israeli soldier held for five years in Gaza], Netanyahu was attacked from the right for appearing weak on terrorism/Hamas.  The current Iran uproar is a way for him to shore up his hawkish credentials.

It should be noted  that the first hint of this Iran story came a few days after Shalit's return last month, when Yediot Aharonot's military correspondent, Alex Fishman, floated the idea that Netanyahu "was clearing the decks for a strike on Iran." It seemed an odd story at the time, but in hindsight it was the opening gambit to this week's excitement.)

4) Whether a decision on an Iran strike has been taken or not, Israeli public opinion and the home front needed to be readied ahead of time in any case.

All of these benefits without needing to lift a finger. Seems like fairly shrewd politics.

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