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Saturday
Feb122011

The Latest from Iran (12 February): The Regime's Day Came and It Went

2240 GMT: Claimed video of "Allahu Akbar" (God is Great) from the rooftops tonight:

2225 GMT: 25 Bahman. An indication in Fars that the Minister of Interior will reject the request by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi for a permit for Monday's rally --- Mehdi Alikhani-Sadr, deputy director of the Interior Ministry's political bureau, said, "These people are fully aware of the illegality of their demand and they know they will not receive a permit for staging a riot."

Meanwhile, the Obama Administration called on Tehran to allow the rally. "By announcing that they will not allow opposition protests, the Iranian government has declared illegal for Iranians what it claimed was noble for Egyptians," National Security Advisor Tom Donilon said in a statement. "We call on the government of Iran to allow the Iranian people the universal right to peacefully assemble, demonstrate and communicate that's being exercised in Cairo."

2200 GMT: 25 Bahman. The Islamic Association of Amir Kabir University has issued its statement supporting Monday's rally.

2000 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Student activist Javid Fakhrian has been re-arrested.

1819 GMT: Programming Note. I have just recorded an interview on social media and Egypt with BBC Persian. I believe it will be airing during the 1830 GMT broadcast.

1715 GMT: Clash of the Day. Aftab News is reporting that four supporters of President Ahmadinejad disrupted a speech by Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani in Qom.

1620 GMT: A Difference from Cairo. The reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front has issued a statement making clear that, in contrast to the uprising in Egypt, it is not pursuing regime change.

1525 GMT: You Can't Satisfy Everyone. Babak Dad is just a bit sceptical about the regime's claims of a successful show yesterday.

1520 GMT: Challenging the President's Right-Hand Man. Yesterday we posted this video of a crowd surrounding Presidential Chief of Staff Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai at a rally on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. We re-post it with translated extracts: "Why do you have 17 positions?/Mashaei haya kon, Ahmadi ro raha kon! (Have shame, quit Ahmadi!)/Marg bar monafegh (Death to MKO)/Monafegh boro gomsho! (MKO get lost!)/Leave Ahmadinejad for the sake of Supreme Leader and people:

1510 GMT: 25 Bahman. A coalition of seven university student organisations have called on political groups and senior clerics to support Monday's rally.

Persian2Englishhas more on statements by student groups across Iran.

Daneshjoo News carries a statement from university organisations in Tabriz.

The Facebook page for 25 Bahman now has more than 41,000 supporters.

1500 GMT: Jamming the Airwaves. An EA reader wrote an hour ago, "I was just watching BBC Persian and there was no sign of jamming. BUT as soon as the they announced your 0815 GMT update about the Qom seminary supporting the protests, THE FEED WAS GONE....Now the screen is all black and you can just hear a deafening signal sound!"

1420 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Tehran University student and Mousavi campaign activist Zahra Eftekhari has been arrested.

RAHANA summarises that at least 14 activists have been detained in the last three days.

1340 GMT: Censoring Bahman. We reported last night and repeated this morning 0705 GMT) that Iranian authorities have blocked Internet searches for "Bahman", the 11th month of the Persian calendar and the month of the 1979 Islamic Revolution celebrated yesterday by the regime. CNN has now followed up the story, citing two Tehran sources.

1100 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. A series of arrests just before Monday's rally, including Mojtaba Shayesteh of the reformist Islamic Iran Participation Front.

Labour activist Mansur Osanloo, who has been detained since 2007, has reportedly suffered a heart attack and is in hospital.

0815 GMT: Supporting Protest. Seminary scholars in the religious centre of Qom have issued a statement of support for the people of Tunisia and Egypt against imperialism, domestic dictatorship, and religious radicalism.

0800 GMT: 25 Bahman. The activist site Unity4Iran posts the routes for marches inside and outside Iran on Monday.

0705 GMT: And so there were speeches, including one by President Ahmadinejad, and a ceremony for the 32nd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

There may be no better illustration of how the day came and went than this declaration from Kayhan. According to the newspaper, 50 million --- two-thirds of the Iranian population --- came out for the regime

Debates over the size of the crowd for the day continue. But far more significant may be whether the day had any significance beyond a setpiece to make the ritual statement of Iranian progress and to denounce the "arrogance of power" of the "West".

The Iranian publicity machine featured Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's hour in Azadi Square in Tehran, but the speech had little of signficance beyond a brief passage setting out the President's challenge to his rivals within the establishment over his economic programme. Ahmadinejad set up the subsidy cuts and his expansion of power as moves for "justice", but he prefaced this with the unreal claim that he would eliminate unemployment by the end of his term in 2013.

Press TV, with its international audience, soon left behind the events to focus on Egypt. And while State TV continued to loop images of the ceremonies in Tehran and elsewhere, this morning the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution has been relegated, even by the Islamic Republic News Agency, to a place well behind the departure of Hosni Mubarak. (Indeed --- and make of this what you will --- IRNA's report on Ahmadinejad and the 22 Bahman ceremony cannot be loaded.)

Meanwhile, the regime was also attempting to break up any prospect of an opposition show on Monday. There were more arrests of journalists and activists on Saturday and disruption and jamming of communications.

It is impossible to tell whether the Green Wave will make any appearance in 48 hours. But perhaps the symbolic measure of the continuing struggle for legitimacy came last night.

A report came through that, if someone in wanted to learn of the full extent of the regime's celebration of 22 Bahman by typing "Bahman" into a Google search, he/she would be out of luck. The word is now blocked.

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