Egypt Analysis: Dead President Walking?

It may be Hosni Mubarak's last act of defiance. Just after 11 p.m. local time last night, having kept his audience waiting for more than an hour, he took the podium to announce his response to the hundreds of thousands gathered in Tahrir Square in Cairo, to others in the streets and in their homes throughout the country, and to the US envoy who had seen him earlier that today.

To all those people, most of whom had demanded his immediate departure, he replied, Not Now.

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He did not do so with resignation, humility, or even the confession of a mistake. Yes, he did say he would not stand for re-election in September --- although he implied, falsely, that he never intended to do so --- but his blame was placed on those who had turned peaceful protest to violence and his credit was given to Hosni, who had served his country selflessly for decades.

After a week in which the dominant theme was rejection of his rule, Mubarak looked brazenly at the audience at home and abroad and said: You Need Me.

You need me, he said, for stability and security. You need me for the Egypt we all love.

One powerful response came immediately from the audience in Tahrir Square, who interrupted Mubarak with screams of "Leave!" Another came later from President Obama, who put his message between the lines of welcoming Mubarak's announcement about September: Really, Hosni, We Don't Need You That Much.

Obama's coolly-delivered references to "orderly transition" could not entirely hide the Administration's anger. The plans had been laid out for the President to welcome a different Mubarak speech, one which announced that the transition would begin immediately --- supervised by Vice President Omar Suleiman --- rather than in seven months. In the hour-plus that he kept his audience waiting, Mubarak pressed his inner circle to stand by him, then rewrote the lines.

You Need Me, he would reiterate over and over, or Egypt falls into violence, looting, and disorder.

But the props for that rhetoric and, more importantly, Mubarak's authority are almost all knocked over. Even before the showdown with the US, his international position was shaken by the message from Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan that it was time to leave to avoid bloodshed. Egypt's business community will be forced into its choice by the imminent collapse of the economy. And while the Egyptian people may desire security, I'm not sure many of them see the President as the holder of it in the near-future.

Mubarak is left with the remnants of his acolytes from the National Democratic Party, its headquarters destroyed, and the military.

This weekend, that military gave him one breathing space when, with the Egyptian police force defeated, it defined its position between President and protesters. It did so again yesterday when it prevented a march from Tahrir Square to the Presidential Palace.

But now comes Friday and the protesters' declared "Day of Departure". On that day, they are likely to make the march that was blocked yesterday. The military will then no longer be in the position of brokering the crisis: it either protects Mubarak and his continued occupation, or it allows the opposition to come up to his gates.

It was this scenario that the Americans hoped to avoid with the mission of Obama's envoy Frank Wisner. But, as he rejected both the US and the millions who shouted against him yesterday, this may have been the scenario that Hosni Mubarak --- You Need Me --- embraced. 

Security through not only insecurity but the prospect of mass bloodshed. There are 48 hours left for Hosni to reconsider that position.