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Thursday
Jul142011

The Latest from Iran (14 July): Divisions within the Regime, Divisions within the Reformists

1610 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. More information about actress and filmmaker Pegah Ahangarani, who was reportedly detained earlier this week.

Ahangarani was supposed to cover this month's Women's Football World Cup in Germany for a blog on Deutsche Welle but was stopped from travelling a day before her depature. She then spent a few days with relatives, but there has been no contact with her since she returned home.

Ahangarani's latest documentary, shown on BBC Persian, is "Dehnamkiha". It narrates the life of Massoud Dehnamaki, one of the founders of the conservative activist group Ansar-e Hezbollah and now a prominent filmmaker. Ahangarani said the film had irritated officials and may have been the reason she was recently summoned by the Ministry of Intelligence for questioning.

1600 GMT: CyberWatch. An official of the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance has said that the new social networking site Google Plus is the latest US spyware. It is supposedly replacing Facebook, which has suffered a large drop in users.

Iran authorities have announced the filtering of Google Plus, even though it is still in pilot stage.

1555 GMT: Economy Watch. Ayatollah Mohsen Mojtahede Shabestari, the Friday Prayer leader of Tabriz, in the presence of President Ahmadinejad, has complained about high energy and water bills and asked for them to be reduced.

1550 GMT: The House Arrests. Germany's top human rights official, Markus Löning, has called on the Iranian regime to "respect its international obligations" and lift the strict house arrest on Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi.

Opposition figures Mousavi and Karroubi have been detained in their homes, with their spouses Zahra Rahnavard and Fatemeh Karroubi, for five months.

1540 GMT: Deviant Current Watch. Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani, the head of the Expediency Council, has warned of divisions within the establishment and said that groups should not insist on their candidates being elected to Parliament.

Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has drawn lines --- has said that he still believes in President Ahmadinejad but people must eliminate the "deviant current" around him from politics.

1530 GMT: Reformist Watch. Mohammad Javad Akbarein, a reformist journalist living in France, tells Radio Farda that former President Mohammad Khatami's declaration --- there should be no participation in elections unless the regime clearly met conditions such as freeing of political prisoners and establishment of a free and fair vote --- is authentic.

There has been scepticism about the authenticity the statement, because a claimed audio recording has not emerged and because prominent opposition sites have not carried it, but Akbarein said Khatami's declaration had changed the political situation with angry reactions from the Revolutionary Guards. Akbarein continued, "Khatami will not step back but has confirmed his leadership along with Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi."

1525 GMT: Elections Watch. Ayatollah Mousavi Tabrizi has supported the call of some activists and reformists to stay out of the 2012 Parliamentary campaign unless conditions are met: "If this situation does not change, we will not participate in elections."

1510 GMT: Economy Watch. Khabar Online claims that the Government and state-run companies owe $30 billion to banking system. Government debts have increased by 267% within the past five years.

1455 GMT: Executions Watch. The Japanese company Tadano has ended contracts with the Iranian regime, following a report that its cranes have been used for public executions.

On 6 July, the President of United Against Nuclear Iran, Mark Wallace, wrote in the Los Angeles Times that Tadano was one of several firms selling cranes to Iran.

1450 GMT: Claim of Day #2. Ammariyon claims that the second son of Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of the Expediency Council and Presidential candidate in 2009, has fled to Britain.

1440 GMT: Unity News. Ayande News claims that, with the addition of representatives of Tehran Mayor Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf and Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, the committee seeking unity amongst conservatives and priniciplists is almost complete.

The committee was established last autumn by President Ahmadinejad but was criticised for being too narrow to reflect the range of opinions and interests within the Iranian system.

1435 GMT: Claim of Day. Jahan News asserts that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, under pressure for months because of alleged involvement in a major fraud, will resign because of restrictions on his powers.

1420 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Sanctions Watch. An Airbus 310 of Iranian airline Mahan Air has been grounded in Birmingham in the centre of Britain, stranding 100 passengers. The action was taken on the grounds that the plane has engines made in the US.

Mahan reported has eight Airbuses in its fleet.

1410 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Karim Sadjadpour writes in The Washington Post of the conflict between the Supreme Leader and the President. It's a dramatic synopsis of material we have presented in recent weeks --- "The Rise and Fall of Iran's Ahmadinejad" --- but it does have this one striking incident:

One former [Revolutionary] Guard and current member of parliament, Mohammad Karamirad, sent Ahmadinejad a message last week in the form of a macabre Persian proverb: “If [Khamenei] asks us to bring him a hat, we know what to bring him,” i.e., the head of the person wearing the hat.

0640 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. Actress and filmmaker Pegah Ahangarani has reportedly been arrested.

0605 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. Ayande News asks a mischievous question, "Will the corruption case involving $320 million in Tehran municipality during Ahmadinejad's period as Mayor (2003-05) be reopened?"

0550 GMT: Campus Watch. Despite an order last week from President Ahmadinejad for a halt to dismissals of academics, Allameh University has fired the prominent professor of economics, Dr Saeed Moshiri after 26 years' service.

0545 GMT: Trouble in Fars. An EA correspondent brings us a report from the "hard-line" Mashregh News....

MP Ja'far Qaderi, who represents Fars Province in southern Iran, has challenged the Ahmadinejad Government over the failure to nominate a Governor for the province amidst "the disorganisation of the economic and security situation". He declared, "If the government does not pay attention to solving Fars Province's problems and fails to nominate a governor-general, the Shiraz representatives will appeal to the Supreme Leader in a letter and will request his help and intervention."

Qaderi, who is on the Planning, Budget, and Audit Committees of Parliament, was unrelenting in his criticism:

Because of the government's failures, essential operations are not conducted in this city and the people are faced with serious problems....Unfortunately, one-third of the Fars Province's government apparatuses lack directors and are administered by caretakers [as] a number of directors have resigned in order to take part in the [2012] Majlis election. Therefore, Fars Province is in a state of disorder, which has negatively affected its economic matters....Compared with the same situation last year, the non-oil exports of the province have seen a 20% drop. There are numerous problems with the relationship between workers and management.

Qaderi put the blame on Ahmadinejad's advisors, "The deviant current and the group who have infiltrated the margins of the government by using their authority are preventing responsible and knowledgeable people from filling key and fundamental provincial positions. [They] manufacture statistics, and announce unrealistic numbers and figures to try to exaggerate the tenure of the irresponsible directors."

0525 GMT: The steady drip-drip of challenge to President Ahmadinejad continues, from sources as disparate as the Revolutionary Guards --- The National, with a contribution from EA, offers a summary of "the force baring its teeth publicly against [Ahmadinejad] for the first time" --- to politicians to clerics to allies of the Supreme Leader.

But that is far from the only conflict in Tehran. The debate among reformists over their role within the Iranian system continues, even though former President Mohammad Khatami has reportedly tried to stem criticism by distancing the movement from the 2012 Parliament elections unless key conditions are met. MP Mostafa Kavakebian, who has become a reformist "leader" within the system amidst the detention of prominent colleagues, has declared, "We will participate in a free and democratic election."

Although Kavakebian's reference to "free and democratic" could be seen as a reference to the conditions for participation --- freedom for political prisoners and a fair electoral process among them --- his positive presentation of the issue contrasts sharply with the critical line taken by other reformists in recent days.

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