Iran Analysis: The Supreme Leader, Political Conflict, and the "Arbitration Committee" (Farhi)

Earlier this week the Supreme Leader announced the establishment of a five-member "Arbitration Committee" to resolve disputes among the branches of the Iranian Government. The immediate cause seemed clear, given the growing between President Ahmadinejad and his critics, including those in Parliament and the judiciary. However, some speculated on whether Khamenei was making a wider move to secure or extend his power, for example, by isolating the Expediency Council, headed by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani.

Farideh Farhi, a leading analyst of Iranian politics, writes for EA:

It is too soon to tell whether this Committee (not council) for Resolving Conflicts and Regulating Relations among Branches is a cosmetic committee announced to give the impression something is being done or it is a serious effort intended to help Khamenei make up his mind about what to about the persistent conflict between Ahmadinejad and Parliament. But I think a couple of points should be made in order to avoid confusion regarding the intended role of this committee in relation to other institutions:

1. It is not at all clear if this body is a decision-making body or a consultative one. In his letter of appointment Khamenei specifically states that the delegation should "examine and offer suggestions" for resolution of conflicts. Some political folks in Iran, such as conservative Hamidreza Taraqi, have already suggested that Khamenei has indeed delegated the task of making decisions about how to resolve the conflicts and the committee will have the power to issue a "state order", something Khamenei does. Perhaps. But it is not in the letter of appointment.

2. It is not correct to say that the responsibility of resolving conflicts and regulating relations among branches previously belonged to the Expediency Council and is now being given to this committee as some hard-line opponents of Hashemi Rafsanjani have stated.

Article 110 of Iran's 1989 amended constitution is quite clear that it is the Leader that has that responsibility. This was a major change in the constitution that previously gave that responsibility to the President (since previously the prime minister was the effective head of the executive branch). In a different section of the same Article, the Leader is also tasked with "resolving the problems of the system that cannot be resolved in routine ways through the Expediency Council."

So a clear distinction is made between regulating relations among branches and resolving systemic problems with the EC specifically associated with the latter and not former. Now, the same article allows the Leader to delegate any of his tasks to others and I guess an argument can be made that the task of regulating among branches could or should have been delegated to EC. But given the intense political conflicts that have also mired EC, I think it would have been quite controversial and counter-productive if the intent of this committee is really to resolve conflicts. Creating this committee, dominated by traditional conservatives (who in Iran's current polarised political environment look like middle of the roaders), may be Khamenei's way to remove himself from the centre of controversy without creating more controversy.

Finally, this is not the first committee appointed by Khamenei to resolve conflicts. He appointed another committee last year to give a report regarding the conflict between Majles and Ahmadinejad. That committee consisted of 3 representatives from the office of the President, 3 from the Guardian Council, and 3 from the Majlis. The committee met for more than 14 times and was essentially deadlocked with the Majlis members contesting GC's report to Khamenei by presenting their own public report. Khamenei never reacted to the points raised.

It is too soon to tell if this new committee is just for Khamenei to say "I am still thinking", so people will not wonder why he is not making a real effort to examine what can be done with a President who doesn't implement laws and a Parliament that wants to run every ministry. Aside from the reality of unelected clerical institutions, there is no doubt in my mind that Iran's elective institutional set up, combining a parliamentary and presidential system, is at a serious impasse because of factional conflicts and the ability of each faction to be a spoiler for what the other side wants to do.(I know this sounds like the US but Iran is even worse since Iran's Majlis can actually demand a say in the internal guidelines and regulations of each ministry).

Another institutional impasse in the 1980s led to the creation of the Expediency Council. Now that set up, designed to resolve conflicts between elected (Majlis) and unelected (Guardian Council) bodies, is useless because the site of conflict has moved to between two elected bodies (Majlis and presidency). Khamenei hence has had to step in increasingly as the ultimate decision-maker and mediator. That process has certainly increased his power but has also burdened him with the day-to-day running of the country.

I do not know if Khamenei has made a decision that something needs to be done to reduce his workload and develop processes that can resolve at least some of the issues without him, or if he is just trying to give the impression that he is doing something while enjoying the dynamics that give his office all the powers of the world --- even at the cost of institutional degradation and administrative chaos in the country.

On this one we just have to wait and see.