US Politics: Latest in the Wisconsin Saga on Union Rights --- Recalling Senators Sets a Historic Precedent?

Today in Wisconsin, voters in six districts decide whether or not they want to recall their State Senators, all Republicans. These elections, held separately from the three contests involving Democrats because of procedural rules, follow the controversial passage of  a law to limit the collective bargaining rights of state employees by the Republican-controlled Senate. With the chamber currently split 19-14 in Republicans' favour, victory in three of the races --- with no subsequent changes in the Democratic incumbent contests yet to be held –--- will see Democrats regaining control. 

According to Mother Jones, from anonymous sources within progressive groups campaigning in the state, Democrats are ahead in two districts, unlikely to win one, and in three the races are too close to call. 

Even if Democrats manage to win one of the tight contests and gain a majority in the Senate, this will not have an immediate impact upon the future of collective bargaining in Wisconsin. The other legislative chamber, the Assembly, will remain Republican, and with its support, Governor Scott Walker will be able to keep the measures in place.

However, this does not make the elections an irrelevance before the expected recall attempt against Gov. Walker in January: as the Milwaukee-Wisconsin Sentinel Journal reports, the results will determine how Wisconsin proceeds with laws on issues from a reform of Medicaid to job creation programs. And the elections have now become more than a fight over collective bargaining rights --- indicating how interested groups in other states like Ohio might try to repeal similar laws, they could mark a turning point in the history of electioneering in the US.

Historically, America has seen nothing quite like the current events in Wisconsin. Here are the bare facts:

Since 1908, there have been 20 recorded state legislative recall elections in the United States --- Wisconsin is in the process of holding nine such elections in the space of a month, according to one recall expert. 'Wisconsin has taken a quantum leap in a fast-changing process, in what has been a growing use of the recall" nationally, said Joshua Spivak, who writes the Recall Elections Blog.

Moreover, although the state is indelibly linked with the notion of recalling unpopular politicians, only two Wisconsin legislators have actually been recalled. In US history, on only three occasions have “more than one state legislator...been recalled at roughly the same time over the same issue: two in Idaho in 1971 over a pay raise, two in Michigan in 1983 over a tax vote and two Republicans in California months apart in 1995 over their collaboration with Democrats.”  

It's not just the unprecedented extent of the recalls that suggests Wisconsin may be the signal for a change in the manner of opposing controversial policy choices by state governments. The money involved, the number of organisations campaigning, and the style of 'populist' language employed --- by Democrats in this instance but certainly as applicable to conservative groups in the future --- could see recalls (or the threat of it) become much more widespread than they are now.

Take the money involved: Mother Jones summarised an interview with Mike McCabe of the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign: 

Outside advocacy groups have flooded Wisconsin with millions in campaign spending. McCabe estimates that nearly $31 million has been spent on the recalls in about four months' time. It's a staggering sum considering $3.75 million was spent on the entire slate of state races in 2010. Recall spending "is totally off the charts," he says. "This is so out of whack from everything we've ever seen."

Some of the groups spending this money, raised nationwide from appeals to their members, are familiar participants in the Wisconsin struggle over collective bargaining. Both the liberal Moveon.org and the conservative Tea Party Express have been raising funds for months. But beyond the established narrative that the recalls in Wisconsin are primarily about union rights,  a Washington Post report from Monday, "Are the Wisconsin recalls about women?" illustrates how diverse the issues at stake have become.

In one of the hotly contested races, Assemblywoman Sandy Pasch (D) --- facing incumbent State Sen. Alberta Darling (R) --- argues, “The biggest issue that seems to be rising up is not collective bargaining ... but for a lot of people it’s the cuts to public education, cuts to Planned Parenthood and reproductive help is one of the biggest issues for independent women.” 

The Post notes, “Conservative anti-abortion groups agree that women’s issues are central. As a Wisconsin Right to Life press release put it: “No matter what you hear about the nine State Senate recall elections that will take place on August 9 and August 16, it’s really about the rights of the unborn.”

This is not meant to underplay the importance of local politics to the outcome of the recall elections in Wisconsin, but to show how politics in America is becoming increasingly a national affair. An article, "All is Fair in Love and Class Warfare", in the progressive American Prospect on Monday began by noting the stakes involved for Wisconsin voters, and then followed with the observation that the elections “also provide a rare test case for a brand of populist, anti-corporate campaigning that activists often call for but many Democrats shy away from".

The piece concludes:

“If we can pull this off," says Democracy Addicts’ Ed Knutson, "we have a blueprint that can be adapted to other situations." He says Wisconsin Democratic politicians this year "have very publicly come out on the side of people and against the corporate interest, and I don’t think people looking at D.C. Democrats see the same thing".

In an example of the style of campaigning taking place in Wisconsin, this in a too-close-to-call contests between Sen. Luther Olsen (R) and Rep. Fred Clark, and where

Left-leaning groups accuse Olsen of backing no-bid sales of state power plants (a claim PolitiFact rated "mostly false") and wanting to slash Medicare (Olsen argues he hasn't said anything about the federal program). Meanwhile, right-leaning groups have hyped Clark's spotty driving record --- including an ad with real footage of him hitting a bicyclist in a Madison intersection --- while ripping the Democrat for not paying child support.

While liberals view what is happening in Wisconsin as a possible lesson for how they combat corporate influence over politics in the future, conservatives see it as an attack on the principle of representative politics through the use of democratic 'mob rule.' America is a republic, not a rule by fleeting majority democracy, they contend. As Judson Phillips, the founder of Tea Party Nation, argued in "Why Wisconsin Matters": 

If the left is able to break the back of the conservatives here in Wisconsin, they will not only push Wisconsin back to bankruptcy, but it will validate a new tool for the left. Conservatives, when we lose elections, generally accept the will of the people and move on.  Unless there is something really bad going on, we rarely push for the ouster of liberals.  If this tactic is successful, the new liberal strategy will be to keep refighting elections over and over again until they win.

The result of the six recall elections today will have an impact on the short-term course of politics in Wisconsin. But their significance may lie more in their contribution to a growing participatory style of US politics. The intensive scrutiny of politics in Washington by outside interest groups and the media is not going to go away. With the increasing role of national politics in state affairs that attention engenders, it would be a surprise not to see more recalls, initiatives, and referenda take place.