US Politics Feature: Can Mitt Romney "Seal the Deal" in Illinois for the Nomination?

Today, voters in Illinois get their chance to determine who will win the Republican nomination for the US Presidency.

For the last week, following Rick Santorum's victories in Alabama and Mississippi, a close race has been predicted between him and Mitt Romney, a verdict with which several polls agreed, as the former Pennsylvania Senator began to eat in Romney's large lead in Illinois. That narrative has been called into question, however, by a poll on Monday which gave the front-runner a commanding edge of 45-30 over Santorum. That poll could be wrong, of course, but it does raise the possibility that Romney at last might finally seal the deal for his nomination. 

The criticism of the Romney campaign to date is that the former Massachusetts Governor has not been able to secure wins big enough to knock his opponents out of the race. Romney's inability to convince enough conservative voters that he is a credible alternative to President Obama has handicapped his efforts and persuaded Santorum and Newt Gingrich to keep running. 

A 15-point margin, even in an Illinois which is not a bastion of conservatism in many of its towns and cities, ends that justification for Santorum to persist.  The challenger could argue that he is still performing well in many of the states to come, especially with his lead in Texas, but a pounding today may persuade him to quit gracefully. 

So, that is one story that could unfold today. It is more likely, however, given the unpredictable past form in this topsy-turvy nominating race that Santorum will get enough votes to convince himself, and all the anti-Mitt members of the Republican Party, that he still has an opportunity to prevent Romney from becoming the candidate.

That brings us back to the issue of a brokered convention, with disgruntled conservatives attempting to stop Romney from accumulating the 1144 delegates he requires to secure the nomination. That was a possibility last week, but the refusal of Gingrich to stop campaigning has all but ended the chances of a dramatic end to the contest. Gingrich is simply taking away too many of the votes that Santorum needs to stop Romney's march.

Critics are quick to note that Romney rarely records an impressive percentage of the vote, even when he wins, but they fail to point out that, even when he loses, Romney garners the same  percentage. Mitt might not be winning this contest spectacularly, but his core constituency of moderates and higher-income voters appears to be solidly behind him. Even in the unfriendly territory of Alabama and Mississippi, he still managed to get 30% of the ballots in both states; in Mississippi, that was enough for Romney to end up trailing by only one delegate --- 13 to 12 --- to Santorum.

The biggest problem for a brokered convention scenario is that Romney does not actually need a amjority of the delegates from nominating contests to win. Nearly every state also has three so-called "superdelegates", and many of these are free to vote for they want regardless of who their state supported. These superdelegates are usually officials from the State Republican parties and, without taking their support for granted, Romney must feel confident that a majority of these "establishment" figures will back his cause.

They are so far. Of the total of 120 superdelegates who can follow their personal choice, democraticconventionwatch.com has 31 endorsing Romney, 3 for Gingrich, 2 backing Santorum, and 1 choosing Ron Paul. It is a struggle to imagine a situation where the numbers will change significantly in Santorum's or Gingrich's favour.

As always, the place for a reality check on this ontest is intrade.com. Last night, Romney was trading as a 90% certainty to face President Obama in November. The real blow for Santorum and Gingrich, however, is that speculators fancying Jeb Bush as a more likely long-shot become the nominee than their established campaigns, trading at 2.1% versus Santorum's 2% and Gingrich's 0.7%.