Iran Opinion: Elections, Power, and Political War in Tehran

It is a bit of a stretch to call Friday's events in Iran an "election". Proper elections are not held in a security climate where opposition politicians, even those who are or have been part of the regime, are exiled or in prison. They are not conducted where all independent media has been muzzled or when reform-minded activists are detained, exiled, or waiting at home, hoping they do not get arrested in the near-future.

Some people --- how many we do not know, we may never know --- voted. They had two main choices: 1) vote for the powerful because they are religious or 2) vote for those who are religious for the sake of power. On the one hand, there are Supreme Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei's allies --- the old guard of religious zealots. On the other hand, there are those who may not be in accord with the Supreme Leader but who have learned the game of currying his favour on a regular basis.

Some among the latter now may be trying to turn the theocracy into a quasi-religious dictatorship. How far they will take their effort is not clear. After all, when a reclusive neighbour closes its doors on everyone, the only time you can learn anything about that neighbour is when they come out to dump their garbage. Only then can we discover that however small the differences may be between the two sides in Iran, they are slowly separating them.

The problem with power is that it turns the person holding it into a magnet that attracts more power. Any power concentrates itself more and more in the hands of the few because once one of those elites gains even a small bit of that power, he becomes addicted to its many uses. Hence, in countries like Iran, as those fighting over the distributed power slowly eliminate one another, the battle raises paranoia. Just because you have gotten rid of some does not mean others will not try to grab it from you --- or so the powerful believe, always trying to seize more and more control, ruling by imposition rather than consent.

That's why, when the end came for Mubarak in Egypt and Qaddafi in Libya, they had few allies to shield them. Same in Iran, as the Supreme Leader Khamenei tried to keep the power that he has acquired over the years. Ahmadinejad and his pals grab for some of it.

In the midst of that struggle, what happened in a Parliamentary election might not seem consequential. But it is.

If the Supreme Leader's allies win --- or rig enough votes to win --- Ahmadinejad and Co. will go to greater lengths to undermine Khamenei. On the other hand, if the President's camp wins --- or rigs enough votes to win --- then Khamenei and his allies will try their very best to emasculate and humiliate the President and his "deviant current". Even if the status quo is preserved through a distribution of seats between the two sides, it will no more than a one-off stand-off. The contest will continue.

This is not just politics. It is political war between Khamenei seeking to become an über-dictator and Ahmadinejad trying to steal a bit of that authority. And thus the paradox: whatever the state of power in that contest, the Government and regime will diminish in power. There will be fractures and divisions, as those who genuinely give support, rather than offer it through coercion or the glimpse of base gain, fall away.