Bahrain Opinion: On Day 100 of a Hunger Strike, Thoughts About the Regime's Strategy

Abdulhadi Alkhawaja and Nabeel Rajab

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It has been two weeks since the arrest of Nabeel Rajab, the president of the Bahrain Human Rights Center, and four since the arrest of activist Zainab Alkhawaja. As they taken around Bahraini courts on charges such as mis-use of Twitter and daring to protest, Abdulhadi Alkhawaja is serving his life sentence and marking the 100th day of his hunger strike.

Abdulhadi began his fast for  the freedom of political prisoners. However, that has not come. What's more, the hope of it in the foreseeable future has faded.

Both Nabeel and Zainab have been arrested numerous times, but in the face of international pressure and media outcry, they were quickly released. This time, the releases have not occurred.  It is as if the regime is testing the waters to see if it can shut away even the most prominent of rights activists.

To remove them for good, the monarchy needed to ensure that it could absorb any reactions, especially those outside Bahrain. In an interview with EA earlier this month, Zainab's sister Maryam Alkhawaja, now the acting president of Bahrain Center for Human Rights, asserted that  without a forceful response from the international community as in the past, Nabeel Rajab would be kept behind bars for good.  She continued, "They kept arresting Zainab until the one time there wasnt much of a reaction. That's when they kept her in and took all five cases against her to court."

Instead of criticism and calls for redress, the opposite has occurred. On Thursday, Khadija Almousawi, wife of Abdulhadi Alkhawaja and mother of Zainab, sent a series of messages to Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague. He never responded.

King Hamad is receiving far more attention. Today he is in Britain for the "Sovereign's Lunch", hosted by Prince Charles, as Queen Elizabeth prepares to celebrate her Diamond Jubilee.

The US has also offered a warmer welcome to the regime this month. Most of the $53 million in weapons sales to Bahrain, frozen because of concerns over "reform" and rights, has been released. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland tried to gloss over Washington's accommodation, “We have made the decision to release additional items to Bahrain mindful of the fact that there are a number of serious unresolved human rights issues that the government of Bahrain needs to address.” 

Still, the regime's victory in getting back into the West's good graces may be short-lived. New developments will force the opposition to evolve and change its tactics to try and gain the upper hand in its display of resistance. That in turn will force the authorities to come up with new ways of quelling the protests. 

Abdulhadi Alkhawaja may or may not die. His daughter and Nabeel Rajab may or may not be released. Other activists may or may not join them.

I can't predict what will happen, but I can say this about the likelihood of events going one way or the other. The regime is gambling that it can tighten the screw of repression without paying a price in its contracts and links, if not its reputation, in the international community. Silence from that community raises the likelihood that the gamble --- despite the continued protests --- will pay off.