The Latest from Iran (23 May): Nuclear Talks in Baghdad

The European Union's Catherine Ashton meets Iran's Saeed Jalili at today's nuclear talks in Baghdad

See also Iran Snap Analysis: How the Nuclear Talks Developed Today
See also Iran Feature: The Week in Civil Society --- Standing Against Homophobia, Defending Students, and More
Iran Analysis: A Guide to Watching Today's Nuclear Talks
The Latest from Iran (22 May): Tehran Plays Up Hope for Nuclear Talks

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2050 GMT: Nuclear Watch. After a bilateral meeting between the EU's Catherine Ashton and Iran's Saeed Jalili of almost two hours, discussions have ended in Baghdad for today.

2010 GMT: Nuclear Prediction Comes True. EA this morning:

Iranian media features the line of politicians and clerics that any discussion must begin with a "Western" offer to ease sanctions. That is the requirement for the talks to move to consideration of limits and monitoring of Tehran's enrichment.

Scott Peterson of the Christian Science Monitor this evening:

"The response from the Iranian side is: 'What you are asking for is ... not what we agreed to in Istanbul,'" an Iranian diplomat close to the talks [said[, referring to the demands of six world powers that include Iran capping uranium enrichment and scrapping a deeply buried facility.

Steps were meant to be “reciprocal, simultaneous, and ... balanced” in their value to each side, says the Iranian diplomat. Instead, Iran was told there would be “consideration” of easing sanctions “later,” after Iran made concessions.

EA this morning:

Behind the public pose, there has to be a significant assurance by the Americans and Europeans over sanctions, on the basis that Iran will not demand self-sufficiency in enriching uranium to 20%.

Peterson this evening:

"This is what we were afraid of," says the Iranian diplomat. "No one is going to accept these things this way. [Giving up] the 20 percent and shutting down Fordow [enrichment plant], in return for nothing? Nothing?"

1835 GMT: Nuclear Watch. A "Western diplomat" says that the European Union's Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers, and Iran's Saeed Jalili are now in a bilateral meeting.

1830 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Some confusion in Baghdad --- the Iranian delegation has briefed the Islamic Republic's press that there will be a second day of talks, but the 5+1 Powers will not confirm this. Instead, both sides are in an evening plenary session:

"We certainlyare prepared to go on to 2nd dayif useful, but we remain hard at work tonight for as long as needed" western official says

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) May 23, 2012

1800 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Journalist Laura Rozen sends a message from Baghdad:

Iranian del media advisor backgrounding as sides trying to spin what seemed a difficult day of talks yfrog.com/esuv4xvj

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) May 23, 2012

1700 GMT: Budget Watch. The saga of the 2012/2013 Budget has ended, albeit with some grumbling by the President....

The proposals were submitted two months late by the Government and further held up by objections from the Parliament, which insisted on changing such as a halving of funds to support the subsidy cuts plan.

President Ahmadinejad effectively disowned the plan today, calling its an "MPs project", even thought he signed off on the measures.

1600 GMT: Nuclear Snap Analysis. Not much of substance so far out of today's Baghdad talks --- instead the interest in the tactics....

First, the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia) put forth their package for a controlled, limited Iranian programme for uranium programme. That was far from news, given that diplomats had already leaked the proposal last night:

The United States and its P5+1 partners will offer fuel for Tehran’s Research Reactor (TRR) plus safety upgrades to the plant, which is of 1960s vintage. Also potentially on the table: new research reactors that use lower level 3.5 percent enriched uranium, safety upgrades for Iran’s one functioning nuclear power plant at Bushehr and spare parts for its accident-plagued fleet of civilian airliners.

In return, Iran must stop producing uranium enriched to 20 percent and halt activities at Fordow, an enrichment facility built into a mountain near Qom. It is not clear whether Iran would also have to send out its stockpile of more than 100 kg of the fuel....

Western officials told Al Monitor that the package does not include sanctions relief at this stage.

This was unlikely to make Tehran jump up and shake hands, given the Islamic Republic's insistence that sanctions be eased in advance of, let alone in return for, its concessions over enrichment.

So the Iranian delegation pretended, at least publicly, that it had not heard anything: "Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, said...the P5+1 put forward a set of new proposals to Tehran. Iran has not confirmed receiving the package yet."

Instead, Tehran said, in effect, "It's our plan on the table." Or, as Press TV wrote:

Iran says that it has offered a comprehensive package to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1)....

Tehran made the announcement after the negotiating sides wrapped up the first session of their meeting in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, on Wednesday.

According to sources close to the Iranian negotiating team, the Islamic Republic has not shifted its principle [sic] positions.

Talks are scheduled to continue later in the evening and more negotiations are slated for Thursday.

Little is known about the Iranian proposals other than the spin that they are "a five-pivot plan" on the "nuclear program and other international issues".

However, IRNA does slip and admit that it heard the 5+1's offer, even if "Iranian representatives have not received any written proposal":

Comparing the Iranian package of proposals with that of the Group 5+1, the correspondent said that Iran’s package is comprehensive, but, the other party has gone into details.

“The problem with the G5+1 package is that there is no balance and there is nothing to get in return for what they give.”

He said that Iranian package has been drawn up in line with Istanbul talks last month and in the context of Non-Proliferation Treaty.

“It envisages step-by-step methodology to resolve the dispute and is well-balanced on give-and-take basis.”

Translation: 1) the 5+1 have not offered anything on sanctions; 2) the 5+1 have not been explicit, at least in Tehran's eyes, in recognising Iran's right to enrichment.

Now, will the 5+1 Powers allow Tehran to take the inititiative? Or will they pretend that they have not heard anything and return to their proposals, possibly shouting them out more loudly?

I bet on the latter.

1353 GMT: Economy Watch. Barbara Slavin offers an economic overlay for today's nuclear talks:

The unofficial devaluation of the currency has also increased inflation, hurting Iranian consumers and businesses.

According to Bijan Khajehpour, an Iranian business consultant based in Austria, inflation in the Iranian fiscal year that ended in March was about 27% and will exceed 32% this year. Unemployment is at least 20% — much higher for young people and for women --- and Iran’s per capita gross domestic product shrank by 18.6% last year to about $4,500, he said.

“Iran’s overall business confidence has not been this low since the final year of the Iran-Iraq war [in 1988],” Khajehpour told an audience at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars on Tuesday, May 22. “Economic stakeholders have lobbied for a de-escalation in foreign relations.”

1320 GMT: Parliament Watch. The take-away lines from Ali Larijani's last press conference as Speaker of the 8th Parliament are over the economy: "If the government were to increase the price of petrol and people’s staple needs, a disaster would occur....The surge in prices is a problem attributed to the amount of cash supply in the country, which has increased from 650,000 billion Rials to 3,500,000 billion Rials over the past seven years. If money had been injected into the production sector, inflation might have been controlled."

Larijani is being challenged for the Speaker's post in the new Majlis by former Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Adel.

1315 GMT: Political Prisoner Watch. The chief editor of the suspended weekly journal Sobhe Azadi, Reza Jelodarzade has been sentenced to one year in prison for anti-regime propaganda.

Jelodarzade was acquitted of the charges of harming national security and plotting the downfall of the regime.

1305 GMT: At the Movies. A group of protesters have gathered in front of the House of Cinema, following an Administration Court decision cancelling the Ministry of Culture's ban on the organisations for filmmakers.

The men said that if necessary, they would also demonstrate in front of the Ministory of Culture and the judiciary.

1235 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Iran's Press TV is claiming from an "informed source" that the Baghdad talks will continue into a second day.

1115 GMT: Suppressing the Journalists. Reporters Without Borders turns the tables on the Islamic Republic, after its delegation to the United Nations Human Rights Council called on Bahrain to “free all political prisoners, put a stop to arbitrary arrests of government opponents and end the impunity reigning in the country".

Reporters Without Borders agrees with Iranian government officials although it is amazed that they dare to lecture others when hundreds of political prisoners, including 31 journalists and 18 netizens, are languishing in Iran’s own jails....

According to the information obtained by Reporters Without Borders, journalists are being summoned for interrogation at the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, a censorship agency that has been turned into an all-out mechanism of control and repression since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became president.

The summonses are issued by Mohammad Hosseini, the minister, and two of his aides, Mohammad Jafar Mohammad Zadeh, deputy minister for press affairs and information, and Mohammad Javad Aghajari, the head of the foreign press department.

When journalists are summoned to the ministry, they are questioned there by Ministry of Intelligence officials and members of the Revolutionary Guards. Those summoned include journalists who work for foreign media. The interrogations are often violent and journalists are mistreated.

1010 GMT: Challenging the Revolutionary Guards. An episode which illustrates tensions over the outgoing Parliament, which ends its session today, and remarks by MP Ali Motahari about intervention by the Revolutionary Guards in elections for the new Parliament....

Pro-Ahmadinejad MP Hamid Rasaei, was telling colleagues on Tuesday that as the 8th Majlis is coming to an end, "We should try and leave good memories in people’s minds". However, Deputy Speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar cut his microphone, saying the remarks should be left to the end of the session.

Rasaei persisted and was again cut off.

At that point, another Ahmadinejad backer, Mehdi Koochakzadeh yelled, “Why is it okay to talk about Sepah (the Guards) and say they are against revolution?”

0920 GMT: Death to the Rapper Watch. Mohammad Nabi Habibi, the leader of the conservative Motalefeh party, has joined the clerical voices calling for death for rapper Shahin Najafi over his song "Naqi".

0916 GMT: At the Movies. The Administration Court has cancelled last year's closure of the House of Cinema, the umbrella group for Iran's filmmakers and actors, by the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

The court said revision of the order was necessary.

Digarban reports that President Ahmadinejad has responded quickly by saying he will attend Thursday's meeting of the High Council for Cinema.

0913 GMT: Fraud Watch. Facing criticism that 1st Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi is not among 85 defendants listed in the trial over a multi-million dollar insurance fraud, the judiciary has said Rahimi's file is still open even though a complaint has not been issued against him yet.

0910 GMT: Gender Watch. Aftab reports that women, facing restrictions on being unaccompanied in cafes with hookahs, are paying 25,000 Toman (about $20 at official rate) for male escorts.

0848 GMT: CyberWatch. Fars reports that the Islamic Republic's "CyberHezbollah" will hold its eighth meeting in Tehran on Wednesday. On the agenda is the case of rapper Shahin Najafi's “insults regarding one Shi'ite Saint".

Najafi has been condemned to death by clerics, with a website offering a bounty for his execution, over his song "Naqi", which invokes the name of Shia's 10th Imam to criticise Iranian politics and society.

0708 GMT: Ahmadinejad Watch. He may have been sidelined in the Islamic Republic's nuclear talks with the "West", with his supporters sniping at the discussions, but President Ahmadinejad is still grabbing for the limelight.

Press TV headlines Ahmadinejad's rhetoric, using a photo opportunity with an advisor to the Sudanese President, “Today, arrogant powers and the enemies of mankind have put pressure on independent nations and governments, including Iran and Sudan. It is upon all independent nations and governments to stand up against expansionists through solidarity, brotherhood and supporting one another."

And news breaks that Ahmadinejad will visit China in June for a "security summit", with the gloss that he will discuss nuclear issues with Chinese President Hu Jintao.

0705 GMT: Subsidy Cuts Watch. A significant concession from the Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini --- although he did not present it this way --- on Tuesday, as he said that the timing for the implementation of the second phase of subsidy cuts is "not clear".

Government officials said in December that the second phase was "imminent", but the plan has been beset by political criticism and economic difficulties.

0625 GMT: Nuclear Watch. Another sign backing our caution about major developments, at least in public, in today's Baghdad talks:

Officials from the administration of US President Barack Obama stressed their intention to maintain a tough stance during talks with Iran, according to Jewish leaders who met with top White House staff on Monday.

Ahead of negotiations in Baghdad over the Iranian nuclear program, the officials said that the US has no plan to reduce sanctions during the talks, and that it was their firm expectation that the EU would still be imposing an oil embargo on Iran at the beginning of July with no exemptions for British shipping insurance, participants said.

Some 70 members of the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations met with US Vice President Joe Biden, Deputy National Security Adviser Denis McDonough, Deputy Secretary of State Thomas Nides and other administration officials in a series of closed door meetings.

0610 GMT: Today's lead Iran story comes from neighbouring Iraq, where the Islamic Republic's officials will resume formal talks with the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) over Tehran's nuclear programme.

What to watch for? We offer an analysis, "A Guide to Watching Today's Nuclear Talks".

Perhaps surprisingly --- given my distrust of his tough-guy, pro-Israel approach while he was in the Obama Administration --- EA's assessment intersects with that of Dennis Ross:

I don't believe that we should be looking at [today] as being a make-or-break meeting where if there isn't an unmistakable breakthrough then the process isn't a real process. One doesn't need to see a breakthrough in these talks. That's unrealistic at this point. The idea that you have a breakthrough after only two rounds, I think, given everything going on, is just not realistic....

There needs to be an indication that the talks really do have a kind of intensive ongoing character and they're meeting on almost what I would describe as nearly a continuous basis.

What Ross omits, however, is the Damocles' Sword over that notion of a long, developing negotiation towards a deal. We note:

Here's the problem. The Islamic Republic may not have the time to "play long". The economy is tottering. The US, Europe, and now some countries and institutions elsewhere have put the squeeze on Iran's Central Bank and financial transactions. And now 1 July looms --- the day that the European Union imposes a ban on imports of oil from Iran.