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Sunday
Jul012012

The Latest from Iran (1 July): The European Union Cuts Off Imports of Tehran's Oil

1535 GMT: Correction of the Day. I am not sure we can take credit for this but, hours after we noted Press TV's use of a conspracy-theory "analyst" to proclaim "US Seeks War with Russia", the Iran State website has downgraded the crisis: "West Seeks Tussle with Russia over Syria"

1445 GMT: A Revolutionary Guards commander has announced plans for a new missile exercise, Great Prophet 7, from Monday to Wednesday.

The Commander of the Aerospace Division, Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh said, “By firing missiles into these simulated bases (of regional forces), our commanders will assess the precision and the effectiveness of the warheads installed on the missiles.”

The commander said the message for the “regional and transregional countries seeking adventurism is that the Islamic Republic is determined to resist their bullying and will give a crushing and decisive response to any potential act of mischief. In case of any potential incident, Iran's surface-to-surface missiles will descend upon them like bolts of thunder.”

1245 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi, who earlier said Zionists are behind the US and European Union's economic restrictions, has tried to rally Iranians: “Today, we are facing the heaviest of sanctions and we ask people to help officials in this battle."

Rahimi said the “dastardly sanctions” might cause “occasional confusion” in the market, but assured that the Iranian nation would not be stopped.

0955 GMT: Sanctions Watch. Some more rhetoric from Tehran about the latest economic restrictions, this time from Minister of Economy Shamseddin Hosseini: "Westerners set unreal deadlines as the time to toughen sanctions in order to create a psychological atmosphere in the country."

0950 GMT: Foreign Affairs (Syrian Front). Iranian State media has been most unhappy with Tehran's exclusion from this weekend's international conference on Syria, and Press TV goes farther this morning with a darker vision: "West Seeks War with Russia".

The "analyst" who gives Press this insight? Lawrence Freeman of the "Executive Intelligence Review", an outlet for the theories of political eccentric and conspiracy theorist Lyndon LaRouche.

0900 GMT: Assurance of the Day. Central Bank Governor Mahmoud Bahmani has claimed that Iran can withstand economic sanctions with about $150 billion in revenue from oil and non-oil exports.

Some Iranian politicians and media had warned this week of a sharp drop in oil income, which makes up the vast majority of revenue, from more than $110 billion in the last Iranian year to $50 billion this year.

0735 GMT: European Union sanctions against Iran, agreed on 23 January, come into effect today. After months of arrangements to ensure supplies to replace Tehran's crude, notably to countries like Greece, Spain, and Italy, the EU will cut off all import of Iranian oil. Equally important, the Europeans are banning insurance cover for the Islamic Republic's tankers, affecting Iran's exports to other customers.

State news agency IRNA features the direct response of Minister of Oil Rustam Qassemi, "We are fully prepared to deal with oil sanctions." 

It is unclear, however, what steps Iran will be taking, as Qassemi's statement is a string of platitudes: "He expressed satisfaction with the sale of Iranian oil in world markets....Part of the oil sales to Europehad been discontinued before the start of sanctions....Some European customers are involved in oil development projects....It is not difficult to replace the sales to Europe....Due to the high quality of Iranian oil, it is always welcomed in the global market....We continue to sell to old, experienced customers with long-term contracts, and we will replace Europe with new customers.

First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi added the allegation at a ceremony for National Industry and Mine Day, "Zionists are behind Iran sanctions and the US and other big powers are acting as the Zionists’ agents in this regard."

Beyond the rhetoric, there was one practical step announced on Saturday. Iran has asked for an emergency meeting of OPEC to discuss production levels. Ostensibly, that is because of a global oil price that has fallen below $100. In reality, Tehran is trying to cut back the increased output that is supporting the sanctions by replacing its exports.

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