US Politics Analysis: Why Obama Has the Edge So Far --- Campaign Finance and the State of the Election

Samuel L. Jackson's pro-Obama "Wake the F*** Up, America"

The latest pro-Romney "attack ad" by the SuperPAC American Crossroads

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Next Wednesday, Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will meet in the first of three campaign debates.

Opinion varies as to how critical the debates are in persuading undecided voters to support a candidate, but the cold fact is that in this campaign they are the last chance for Romney to turn around Obama's momentum. The President is currently leading by margins, especially in the battleground states, that have him as a 4-1 favourite –-- 80% probability --- to retain the White House.

The reasons for Romney's disappointing performance are many, but one that is not receiving the attention that it deserves is that conservatives have not yet been able --- as many feared after the Supreme Court decision of 2010 --- to swamp the Obama campaign with a series of negative ads drowning out the voice of the Democratic incumbent. There is time for that change, especially if big donors are encouraged by Romney's performance in the first debate to pour in last-minute millions, but money has not yet shifted the fundamentals in this race.

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US Politics: Why This "Lame Duck" Congress is So Important

On Monday the Representatives and Senators who were defeated in the elections, or are leaving office for other reasons, will still be members of Congress with full legislative responsibility. So, even though Republicans regained control of the House on 2 November, for a short while Democrats will keep their majority. Those Democrats who are departing in January can attempt to pass controversial (or "radical", according to the November Speaker website) legislation without having the mandate of their electorate.

The issues to watch, in what could be an animated session for a waterbird that can’t walk, are the Bush tax cuts, the appropriation debates, and the seemingly inevitable civil war –-- this time over earmarks –-- that erupts whenever conservatives gain electoral success.

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US Politics: Grassroots Activism, American Style (Haddigan)

On Thursday afternoon, on a national radio talk show, Sarah Palin finally endorsed Catherine O’Donnell’s campaign to be the next Senator from Delaware. Within hours, after Palin repeated her backing for O’Donnell via Twitter and Facebook, the Internet was swamped with the news. Nothing too surprising about that: this is the way politics is conducted in the US. To people in Britain, "activist" conjures a picture of a small group trudging through streets posting leaflets every election year. Some folks might occasionally remember a canvaser knocking on their door to solicit their vote. But the grassroots activism of America is an alien concept.

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