US Elections 2012 Feature: The 7 Senate Races to Watch --- and Why They Are Important for the Next President

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The overall picture for the Senate then is that the Democrats should win Virginia, Wisconsin and Massachusetts to give them 52 seats. There are enough reasons to doubt Republican chances in Indiana and Nevada to suggest a Democrat might win one of those states, leaving a 53-47 majority.

But this is a Presidential election year, where Senate races are not as safe to call as in off-Presidential campaigns where the candidates stand or fall a bit more on their own merits. Republican faith in their theory of a lacklustre Democratic turnout may be nothing but a fantasy, but until the results start to confirm Obama's lead in the polls as reality, then Democrats face the possibility of losing the Senate as well as the White House. It is unlikely, but stranger results have happened in recent American political history.

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US Politics Analysis: Santorum Drops Out, But Can Romney Win?

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On Tuesday afternoon, Rick Santorum suspended his campaign to become the Republican nominee for this November's US Presidential election. His effective withdrawal from the race --- while his run is suspended, Santorum can still raise money to pay off campaign debts --- leaves Mitt Romney as the GOP candidate to face President Obama.

That passive expression, "leaves Mitt Romney", sums up the work the former Massachusetts Governor has to do in the next 6 months to persuade wavering American voters he has the conviction to be elected President. The overriding impression from the last few months of Republican primaries is that Mitt is the last man standing, a victor because of his overwhelming superiority in finances and campaign organisation. He will not enjoy those advantages in a contest with President Obama and what is sure to be a withering assault from the Democratic Party.

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US Politics Analysis: Obama Invokes the Spirit of Teddy Roosevelt --- But How Far Will He Go?

Theodore Roosevelt, 1910Obama may not go as far as Theodore Roosevelt did in his Confession of Faith when he stated, “We wish to control big business so as to secure among other things good wages for the wage-workers and reasonable prices for the consumers.” But, if he does continue with this Rooseveltian-like journey to the Left through 2012, this populist turn may be of significance not November.

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