Turkey Analysis: Beyond the Car Bombs --- The Kurds, Iraq, and Syria

Last week, two car bombs exploded in Reyhanli in southern Turkey, close to the Syrian border, killing almost 50 people and injuring more than 100.

While nobody claimed responsibility for the deadly incident, it raised the immediate question of whether Turkey would escalate its intervention in Syria, either alone or with others.

However, that reaction was too narrow and missed the wider context. This is not just about the Syrian conflict but also Turkey's internal politics, specifically its attempt to resolve the sensitive Kurdish issue.

The primary concern for the Erdogan government is the ongoing peace drive with the Kurdish leadership, including imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. So the question is not just whether the events in Reyhanli complicated Turkey's position inside Syria but also whether they threaten these delicate internal negotiations.

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Turkey Audio Feature: Kurdish Fighters Withdraw From Turkey To Iraq

A PKK fighter works on her laptop after arriving in the northern Iraqi city of Dohuk on 14 May 2013, after leaving Turkey as part of a peace drive with Ankara. (Photo: AFP -Safin Hamed)

EA's Scott Lucas spoke with Monocle 24's The Daily on Thursday night, discussing the implications for Turkey after the first group of militants from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) withdrew from southeast Turkey and entered Iraq, at the behest of their leader, Abdullah Ocalan --- who is serving a life sentence in Turkey --- and as part of a peace plan aimed to end three decades of conflict.

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Middle East Today: Turkey --- 1st Kurdish PKK Fighters Move to Iraq

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Turkey: 1st Kurdish Fighters Move to Iraq

In the first withdrawal of fighters of the Kurdish insurgency PKK from Turkey under an ongoing peace process, 13 men and women have arrived in Iraq.

The group was carrying Kalashnikov assault rifles, light machineguns, and rocket-propelled grenade launchers.

PKK fighters began leaving positions in southeast Turkey on 8 May after a cease-fire declared by their imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is in talks with the Turkish Government.

About 2000 PKK fighters are based in Turkey and will join several thousand comrades in bases in northern Iraq in a process expected to take several months.

Syria Today: Another Week of Stalemate?

1613 GMT: Rebels Make "Rules of War" Videos.

Al Jazeera English reports that a non-government organization, Geneva Call, has helped the Syrian National Coalition to develop videos that spell out the codes of conduct for rebel fighters that explain the international standards that their fighters should follow:

1546 GMT: Rebels Reportedly Shoot Down Helicopter.

The LCC is reporting that a "warplane" delivering supplies to the Abu ad Duhor airbase has been shot down (map). "Warplane" is a strange linguistic feature unique to Syria, as it sometimes means "military helicopter" or "military airplane," but helicopters have often been used to supply this besieged air base at the intersection of Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. Furthermore, several sources are posting this video:

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Syria Today: Turkey Blames Damascus for Car Bombs That Kill 43

Aftermath of Saturday's car bombs in Reyhanli in Turkey

See also Syria Opinion: How to Meet the Challenge of Covering Conflict
Saturday's Syria Today: Russia Holds Off US and British Political Approach

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1755 GMT: Humanitarian Aid

The European Commission has announced an additional 65 million Euros ($84 million) in aid for refugees and internally displaced Syrians, warning the crisis is "already at breaking point".

The announcement came as humanitarian aid commissioner Kristalina Georgieva visited the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan.

"The more atrocities and fighting go on in Syria, the more people run. There are no indications whatsoever that this...is going to go down," Georgieva said after the visit.

She continued, "We have to dig deep into our pockets (to help the Syrians) because the worst is yet to come. The crisis is beyond humanitarian response. We need to do more and we need to do more in a better way."

The UN humanitarian office has put the number of refugees at 1.4 million and displaced persons at 4.25 million --- together, the figures are about one-quarter of Syria's 22.5 million.

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Syria Today: Turkey "Backs US-Enforced No-Fly Zone"

Turkish PM Erdoğan1513 GMT: American Ambassador Meets with Opposition inside Syria.

US Ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, crossed the Syrian border yesterday and met with opposition leaders. What's interesting is that Ford arrived in Turkey after meeting with Russian officials in Moscow. ABC reports:

It is Ford's first visit back to Syria since he left in February, 2012, when the U.S. embassy suspended operations in Damascus as the opposition effort to oust Syrian President Bashar al Assad developed into a full-blown civil war. Since then, Ford has become the Obama administration's point man on Syria and point of contact with the Syrian opposition.

A U.S. official confirmed Ford's secret visit, which occurred along the Turkey-Syria border. He briefly crossed into Syria to meet with opposition leaders before returning to Turkey. Ford did not go deep into Syria, according to the official.

"It was literally just across the border," the official said.

A State Department official confirmed that Ford had "spent some time" at a border crossing to discuss the situation in Syria with members of the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian opposition. Ford had gone to the border to participate in the U.S. government's delivery of Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) that the U.S. is providing to the Syrian Coalition and Supreme Military Council.

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Iran Today: Promoting Ahmadinejad and His Man for President

Ahmadinejad Watch --- MPs and Revolutionary Guards Slam President

Ahead of the formal declarations of candidates for June;s Presidential election, prominent figures have spoken out against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his close aide, Esfandiar Rahim-Mashai.

Conservative MP Ali Motahari slammed Ahmadinejad, calling him a "spoilt child".

In a direct dig at the President and an indirect jibe at the Supreme Leader, Motahari --- a brother-in-law of Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani --- said that the current crisis in Iran is due both to of Ahmadinejad’s mismanagement and attitude and to the support that he had from "elders".

Motahari has previously tried to summon Ahmadinejad to Parliament to face questioning and possible impeachment.

Hojatoleslam Mojtaba Zolnour, the Supreme Leader's deputy representative to the Revolutionary Guards, has said Ahmadinejad has no power to create problems in the upcoming Presidential elections.

Zolnour said that even if the Guardian Council approves Ahmadinejad's man Rahim-Mashai, he will not get any votes.

Hojatoleslam Mehdi Taeb, the head of the Ammar Strategic Base --- an organization established to fight the so-called “soft war” against Iran --- also spoke out against Ahmadinejad's policies.

Taeb said that last year he warned Ahmadinejad to stay away from Rahim-Mashai, who would disgrace him.

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Middle East Today: Killing Off an "Independent" Egyptian News Site

See also Syria Today: The Debate Over Chemical Weapons
Saturday's Syria Today: A Chemical Weapons "Game-Changer"?

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Egypt: Mubarak Appeal for Release Rejected

The Criminal court has rejected former President Hosni Mubarak's second appeal for his release from prison, during the investigation of charges of illicit gain from his position.

The court ordered Mubarak to remain in detention for 15 days while the charges are investigated.

Libya: Gunmen Surround Foreign Ministry

A military official says about 200 armed men are surounding the Foreign Ministry building in Tripoli, demanding the ministry reform and hire former fighters who helped overthrow the Qaddafi regime.

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Middle East Today: Iraq's Escalation in Violence

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Turkey: Erdogan Hails Withdrawal

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has hailed the planned withdrawal of fighters of the insurgent Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) from Turkey as the end of a "dark era" but warned against potential sabotage of the peace process.

The PKK withdrawal is due to begin on 8 May.

"The door is closing on a dark era. Turkey is changing its ill fortune and is entering a new phase," Erdoğan told a business group in comments broadcast live by State television. He added:

No one should try to pull this process in a different direction. We remain vigilant against sabotage, against provocations, but today we are much more hopeful, determined and optimistic.

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Turkey (and Beyond) Summary: PKK Sets Withdrawal Date

Turkey: PKK Announces Withdrawal from Turkey

The Kurdish PKK insurgency has announced it will withdraw thousands of fighters from Turkish soil starting 8 May.

The insurgents will move to northern Iraq as part of the peace process between the Erdogan Government and PKK head Abdullah Ocalan, seeking to end three decades of conflict.. 

The PKK warned the Turkish military against "provocations" which would result in the end of the pledged withdrawal. The organisation said the move would be phased over montha and --- in a declaration likely to be opposed by the Government --- said fighters would keep their weapons.