Podcast Special: Scott Lucas on "US Politics and the Future of Obama"

The University of Birmingham's Ideas Lab is pursuing an excellent initiative to bring the voices of academics to a general audience. I had the chance to speak with them this week about the work of EA WorldView and, specifically, about the current state of play in US politics.

Questions include: How serious is the setback for President Obama from the 2010 Congressional elections? What are the prospects for the Republican Party? Is Sarah Palin --- and beyond Palin, the Tea Party --- an asset or an albatross for those Republicans? How does an often-polarised US media affect politics? And what is likely to occur in the 2012 campaign?

Have a listen: it may be the only chat on US politics this month to bring in the significance of Dancing with the Stars.

Listen to the interview....

US Elections Video & Transcript: President Obama's Remarks on a "Shellacking"

EA WorldView, Wednesday morning: "The best prospect is to try and keep the American economic ship on the water, rather than under it, amidst protracted recession and unemployment....The Democrat/Obama strategy will be to present this pragmatic "stay the course" approach, appealing to the good sense --- political and economic --- of an American centre.

President Obama, Wednesday afternoon: " I think the overwhelming message that I hear from the voters is that we want everybody to act responsibly in Washington, we want you to work harder to arrive at consensus, we want you to focus completely on jobs and the economy and growing it, so that we're ensuring a better future for our children and our grandchildren."

BARACK OBAMA: Some election nights are more fun than others. Some are exhilarating. Some are humbling.

Click to read more ...

US Special: LiveBlog of the 2010 Elections

Updated on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 at 22:00 by Lee Haddigan

2030 GMT: Democrat Michael Bennet is now being called the winner in the Colorado Senate race. With 90% of the ballots counted, he has a 15,000-vote lead over Republican/Tea Party candidate Ken Buck.

1208 GMT:Senate Updates. Democrat Michael Bennet has taken his first lead, with 88% of the votes counted, over Republican/Tea Party candidate Ken Buck. It's only 48-47, but with the majority of outstanding ballots likely to favour Bennet, this looks a probably Democratic hold.

Washington, because of its large number of postal ballots to be counted, is in suspension with Democratic incumbent Patty Murray holding a 14,000 vote edge over Republican Dino Rossi. More than one-third of the vote remains to be tallied.

And in Alaska, it looks like Governor Lisa Murkowski, running as an Independent, will have enough of an edge to not only win but overcome any legal challenge. "Write-Ins", almost of which will be for Murkowski, has 41% v. 34% for the Tea Party candidate, Joe Miller, who upset her in the Republican primary.

Click to read more ...

An Introduction to Today's US Elections

Over the last few weeks, US Politics correspondent Lee Haddigan has given an introductory course on the US elections to EA readers. Now, for the graduates, he offers a summary of what to look for today in the Congressional and gubernatorial elections:

In a few hours time Americans will go to the polls and decide who will control the next Congress. With 435 elections for the House of Representatives and 37 Senate contests, as well as 37 battles for state Governor, it promises to be a hectic Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Sadly, Scott Lucas turned down my pleas to be sent to the US, all expenses paid, to cover the elections, and a more modest request for a coffee budget to stay awake during the coming marathon was politely ignored. But never fear, for slightly slower than up-to-the-minute breaking news, EA USA is here.

I'll start on the premise that Monday's expert predictions from Monday are a foundation for tonight's results. Those forecasts currently show that  the Republicans will gain a majority in the House of Representatives, but narrowly fail in its attempts to gain control of the Senate; as verdicts begin rolling in about 2200 GMT (6 p.m. on the US East Coast), they will confirm, reject, or modify the projections.

Click to read more ...

A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: The States and the Governors

The most intriguing aspect of the current crop of gubernatorial contests is what happens after the results. In many races, such as Florida's, both the Democrat and the Republican candidates are standing on the platform of cutting state spending. Quite how popular a victor will be after he/she cuts spending remains to be seen.

The Tea Party has surprised me and many others with its ability to retain a coherent message for the last 18 months. Whether it continues to surprise us for the next two years will depend on the reforms it achieves, and the popularity of those changes, through its influence in state legislatures and Governor's offices after next Tuesday.

Click to read more ...

A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: Early Voting, The Toss-Up Races, and the Loss of Moderation

As EA has looked at some of the races, and issues, that will determine who will control the US Congress come 3 November, large numbers of voters have already gone to the polls and cast their ballot. Procedures vary from state to state, but estimates suggest that fully 30% of the votes in these mid-terms will be made before the traditional focus of Election Day.

Early voting is worth noting because it is contributing to a major shift that is occurring in American politics: the increasing inability of politicians to present themselves, or act in Washington as, moderate politicians.

Here are the eight toss-up elections, with the latest polling figures, which will decide which party controls the next Senate --- currently there are 57 Democrats, 2 Democrat-allied Independents, and 41 Republicans. We profiled Nevada and Kentucky last week; here are the six others....

Click to read more ...

A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: The Tea Party, "Kooks", and the Senate Race in Kentucky

How can I not like Kentucky? Home of bourbon whisky, the Derby, and bluegrass music, three of the staples of civilised living all found in one state. A perfect day could well consist of sitting at Churchill Downs reviewing the horse-racing programme, sipping a Maker’s Mark while the locals enjoy their mint juleps, and listening to an old-style jug band.

Wrongly or rightly, Kentucky enjoys the reputation of a polite, well-mannered state where the Southern virtues of relaxed refinement and civility still persist.

It is a sign of the threat to the character of Kentucky that the Senate race in the state is turning increasingly bitter and bad-tempered. On Sunday night, the two candidates held a debate where Rand Paul, the tea party-backed Republican, asked his Democrat opponent Jack Conway: “Have you no decency? Have you no shame?"

Click to read more ...

A Beginner's Tour of the US Elections: The Power of the Majority and the Senate Race in Nevada

The election in Nevada may well see the ousting of Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader, either by his loss to Angle or by the Republicans winning enough of the seven other toss-up seats to relegate him to a member of the minority. Either way, one thing is certain: neither party will achieve the super-majority of 60 Senators needed to ensure the passage of controversial legislation in the next Congress by defeating any filibuster. If Reid survives as Majority Leader, Democrats will have a greater chance of proposing liberal legislation, but as current Senate rules, they stand little chance of passing them. A Republican Majority Leader, despite the advantages of controlling the composition of Senate committees, will face a similar predicament when it comes to passing conservative legislation.

In fact, unless the Senate miraculously rediscovers the bipartisan tone of compromise it once possessed, it is hard to see what either party with a simple majority can hope to accomplish in the next two years.

Click to read more ...

US Elections: The Power of Money and Democrat Losses in Congress (and the White House?)

Democrats are becoming resigned to losing heavily in November. And, as politicians are apt to do, they are looking for someone other than themselves to blame. The argument, put out by Obama himself, runs that the electorate would fully support progressive policies if only the message was not insidiously sabotaged by the dirty campaign money of wealthy individuals and big business. 

The Citizens United ruling of the Supreme Court, and the resulting spending during this election, has only reinforced this liberal worldview. So although the Democrats may have given up on this election, expect the real fireworks to begin next year as they try to fend off the assault of a Sarah Palin or Mike Huckerbee, bankrolled by conservative 501 groups, on the reelection bid of President Obama. The current president may like to present himself as the representative of a new transparent politics, but if he doesn’t get down and dirty next year, come January 2013 he will find himself on the outside looking in.

Click to read more ...

US Politics: Leaf-Peeping and Re-thinking the Freedom of Speech (Matlin)

EA's US Affairs correspondent John Matlin checks in from the US Northeast:

For the past few days, I have enjoyed the privilege of “leaf peeping,” the annual ritual of looking at the fall colours in New England.The trees provide a cornucopia, shades of green, some verging on blue, as well as oranges, yellows, bronzes, golds, silvers and reds of every hue.

The season is almost over, so the hordes of motorists are gone. Those who remain have been courteous and polite. The whole experience has been rewarding, to put it mildly. 

However, all is not right here. Trying to match the beauty of this fall in New England and the US political scenie is an impossible task.

Click to read more ...